Workflow
种植产业链
icon
Search documents
农林牧渔行业周报:重视生猪供给侧变化,看好牧业景气上行-20250615
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-15 11:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a weekly increase of 1.62% in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is undergoing weight reduction, with a current average weight of 128.82 kg per pig, and a slight increase in frozen product inventory rate. Despite a downward trend in pig prices, leading companies are expected to achieve good profitability in the first half of the year [3][19][20]. - The poultry farming sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market, with a notable decrease in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to overseas avian influenza. However, there is potential for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][31]. - The livestock sector is experiencing a steady state in beef prices, with a slight decrease in milk prices. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices in the second half of 2025 as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with fluctuations in grain prices due to tariff policies and global weather disruptions. The report suggests that if there is a significant reduction in grain production, the planting industry may see improved conditions [6][40]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations in various fish prices. The report notes that feed prices have stabilized, which may benefit the overall profitability of the sectors [58][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 2725.63 points, with a weekly increase of 1.62%, outperforming major indices [2][13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average pig price is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.21%. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the industry [19][20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.27 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The sector is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery as demand improves [29][31]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle is 26.71 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2,334.29 yuan/ton, showing a weekly increase. The report suggests that significant reductions in grain production could improve the planting industry's conditions [39][40]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight fluctuations in fish prices. The report notes that stable feed prices may benefit overall profitability [58][63].
农林牧渔行业周报:生猪价格走弱 关注行业体重变化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-09 00:35
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [80]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [22]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stability despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from overseas avian influenza affecting supply [35]. - The dairy industry is seeing a recovery in milk prices due to reduced supply, while beef prices are expected to rise as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [39]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs sold was 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.05 CNY/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [20][21]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year, despite anticipated price pressures in the second half [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.32 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 0.68% week-on-week, while overall prices remain stable [32][35]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust, potentially boosting poultry product consumption [35]. 2.3 Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk has stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery as supply decreases [39]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies, with corn prices at 2294.29 CNY/ton and soybeans at 3925.26 CNY/ton [46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.37 CNY/kg and poultry feed at 3.40 CNY/kg [65]. - Aquaculture prices remain steady, with notable increases in shrimp prices [65].
生猪价格走弱,关注行业体重变化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-08 15:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].
牛肉价格稳步上行,奶牛产能去化有望加速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 14:14
Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a limited expected change in performance compared to the market over the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a slight increase of 0.05% during the week [12][13]. - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in pig prices, with a current average price of 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.42% [19][30]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price adjustments due to seasonal demand and external factors like avian influenza, with white feather chicken prices currently at 7.40 yuan/kg [30][35]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints continue, with a potential upward trend in raw milk prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][36]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market cycle, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2620.55 points, with a weekly increase of 0.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors included beauty care and non-bank financials, while the agricultural sector ranked 20th [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.71 kg, with a stable trend compared to previous weeks [19]. - The report indicates a potential downward pressure on pig prices due to increased supply and inventory adjustments [20]. - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are positioned for better profitability amid market fluctuations [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices have seen a slight decrease, but there is an expectation of recovery as consumer demand improves [30][35]. - The report notes a significant reduction in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to external factors, which may impact future production [35]. 2.3 Livestock - The beef market is showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for calves and live cattle, indicating a potential new cycle in the beef sector [36]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as supply constraints are addressed, with raw milk prices projected to recover in the latter half of 2025 [4][36]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies on commodity prices, with fluctuations observed in major agricultural products [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [5][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various fish species [58]. - The report indicates that aquaculture prices are holding steady, suggesting a stable market environment for aquatic products [58].