投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.08.18-2025.08.22）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2941.27 点(周环比+3.72%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4378.00 点（周环比+4.18%），深证综指收于 2393.21 点（周环比+4.02%），上证综指收于 3825.76 点（周环比+3.49%），科 创板收于 1247.86 点（周环比+13.31%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 127.98 公斤/头，价格偏弱下散户出栏积极性提升，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.12%至 17.32%， 在价格持续下跌以及部分地区天气转凉的背景下，生猪出栏节奏有所放缓，整体看出栏均重依旧处于较高位置，后续 生猪价格仍存在较大压力。目前政策端对能繁母猪存栏向下调控方向不变，此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续 加强环保管理，部分母猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本较差企业已经出现亏损，预计养殖成本较差企 业已经开始调减产能，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，预计短期生猪价格依旧存在较大压力。若行业产能有序调控， 预计近期能繁母猪存栏出现下降，中期行业盈利中枢有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][3] - The market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 11% for the agriculture sector compared to a 4% decline in the CSI 300 index, indicating relative underperformance [2][10] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices have been declining due to increased supply pressure, with the average price of live pigs at 13.74 CNY/kg as of August 14, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.00% [6][29] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase in July, with a month-on-month growth of 0.28% [20] - Profitability for self-bred pigs remains positive at 28.85 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 157.05 CNY per head [35] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 CNY/kg as of August 15, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [36][39] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry by stabilizing prices [36] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant year-on-year growth in vaccine issuance for various diseases, including a 76% increase for circovirus vaccines in June [45] - The development of African swine fever vaccines is progressing, with clinical trials expected to enhance market interest in the sector [45] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of August 15 are 2438 CNY/ton, 3097 CNY/ton, and 2394 CNY/ton, respectively, with soybean meal prices increasing by 2.7% week-on-week [48] - The USDA's August report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous year, which may impact pricing and availability [49][51] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports totaled 4.999 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [53] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 5% across major e-commerce platforms in July [56] - Companies with strong domestic sales growth and supply chain advantages are expected to enhance their market share [56]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [74]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 3.62% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights a focus on high-quality development in the pig farming industry, with a call for better market guidance and policy support [3][22]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. - The beef and dairy sectors are seeing price stability, with expectations for a new cycle in beef prices as supply constraints continue [5][39][42]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases due to external uncertainties [6][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2855.04 points, with a week-on-week increase of 3.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.48 kg, with a slight increase in slaughter rates due to high temperatures [3][22]. - The average price of pigs was 14.15 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.84% [21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 yuan per pig, with a focus on low-cost operations [3][23]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 6.70 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [29]. - The overall poultry sector is stabilizing, with expectations for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][35]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle was 26.49 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week [5][40]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in prices as supply constraints continue [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were 2,332.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.12% [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases [6][45]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.35 yuan/kg [61]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing [61][66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for selective investment in quality companies [78]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a challenging market environment [12]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the pig farming industry, with leading companies expected to maintain profitability despite supply pressures [24]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing price adjustments due to weak demand, but there is potential for recovery as consumer demand improves [37]. - The livestock sector is seeing a gradual increase in beef prices, while dairy prices are stabilizing, suggesting a potential turning point for profitability [44]. - The planting industry is facing supply pressures, but there is optimism for improvement if significant crop reductions occur [46]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing price stability, with certain aquatic products experiencing upward trends [64]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2755.32 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, underperforming compared to major indices [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 128.83 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.27 yuan/kg, down 3.65% week-on-week [22][23]. - Leading companies are expected to achieve profits exceeding 200 yuan per pig, with a potential for improved profitability in the medium term [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 6.40 yuan/kg, with a slight increase, but overall prices remain under pressure due to high supply [36][37]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic conditions improve [37]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle was 26.48 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase, while dairy prices are stabilizing [39][40]. - The sector is expected to see a new cycle of beef production as prices for calves and live cattle rise [44]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2,330.00 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to external uncertainties and potential crop reductions [45][46]. - The planting sector is anticipated to improve if significant reductions in crop yields occur [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with specific aquatic products like shrimp and abalone maintaining their prices [64][67]. - The aquaculture sector is showing signs of recovery, with certain products experiencing price increases [64].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since September 2024, with market expectations at 2.5% [1] - The core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, remained flat, with a 12-month cumulative increase of 2.5%, indicating low potential inflation stickiness [2] - The overall manageable producer price pressure suggests a likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates or gradually lowering them [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices saw a 0.6% increase in June, with gasoline prices rising by 1.8% and industrial electricity prices by 2.7%, indicating structural opportunities in the energy sector [3] - The demand for communication and related equipment prices increased by 0.8% in June, reflecting ongoing enterprise demand for 5G upgrades and data center construction [3] - Despite a 0.9% overall decline in transportation and warehousing services, freight forwarding prices rose by 8.0%, highlighting increased demand for logistics optimization amid global supply chain restructuring [3][4] Group 3: Consumer Services and Agricultural Products - Travel accommodation prices dropped by 4.1% in June, the largest monthly decline in six months, indicating short-term pressure on the tourism sector [5] - Egg prices plummeted by 21.8% in June, with a 12-month cumulative increase narrowing to 15.8%, primarily due to oversupply [9] - The price of unprocessed chicken decreased by 25.0%, suggesting potential short-term profitability pressures for poultry farming enterprises [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, indicating potential for good profitability in leading companies [3][20]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 2.55%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is experiencing a rebound in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 15.35 CNY/kg, up 4.28% week-on-week, indicating a potential for improved profitability in the near term [3][20]. - The poultry sector is facing pressure due to weak demand, but there is an expectation for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][36]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with live cattle prices at 26.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while dairy prices are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 [5][42]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with support for wheat prices due to minimum purchase price policies, and potential improvements if there are significant reductions in crop yields [6][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2729.26 points, with a weekly increase of 2.55%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 15.35 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 4.28%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.64 kg, showing a slight increase [3][20][21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to achieve good profitability, with profits exceeding 200 CNY per pig [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 3.71% week-on-week. The overall price pressure is attributed to weak demand [4][36]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices are at 26.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase, while dairy prices are stabilizing around 3.04 CNY/kg [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2367.14 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.61% week-on-week. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for certain fish species [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price movements in the near term [75]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.80% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the broader market indices [13][14]. - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing a rebound in prices, with the average price of commodity pigs at 14.72 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.52% [3][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing pressure due to weak demand, leading to price adjustments, particularly for yellow feathered chickens [4][37]. - The beef and dairy sectors are in a state of fluctuation, with live cattle prices at 26.52 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease, while dairy prices are stabilizing [5][41]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with wheat prices supported by minimum purchase price policies, and corn prices rebounding slightly [6][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2661.46 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.80%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of June 27, the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.14 kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability for leading pig farming enterprises exceeds 200 yuan per pig [3][22][24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 7.01 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The overall price pressure is attributed to weak downstream demand [4][33][37]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices are at 26.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease, while dairy prices are stabilizing around 3.04 yuan/kg [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2352.86 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.43%, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [6][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with pig feed at 3.36 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing an upward trend, particularly for fish species [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a weekly increase of 1.62% in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is undergoing weight reduction, with a current average weight of 128.82 kg per pig, and a slight increase in frozen product inventory rate. Despite a downward trend in pig prices, leading companies are expected to achieve good profitability in the first half of the year [3][19][20]. - The poultry farming sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market, with a notable decrease in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to overseas avian influenza. However, there is potential for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][31]. - The livestock sector is experiencing a steady state in beef prices, with a slight decrease in milk prices. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices in the second half of 2025 as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with fluctuations in grain prices due to tariff policies and global weather disruptions. The report suggests that if there is a significant reduction in grain production, the planting industry may see improved conditions [6][40]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations in various fish prices. The report notes that feed prices have stabilized, which may benefit the overall profitability of the sectors [58][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 2725.63 points, with a weekly increase of 1.62%, outperforming major indices [2][13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average pig price is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.21%. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the industry [19][20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.27 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The sector is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery as demand improves [29][31]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle is 26.71 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2,334.29 yuan/ton, showing a weekly increase. The report suggests that significant reductions in grain production could improve the planting industry's conditions [39][40]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight fluctuations in fish prices. The report notes that stable feed prices may benefit overall profitability [58][63].