投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2026.02.23-2026.02.28）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2972.60 点(周环比+4.01%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4710.65 点（周环比+1.08%），深证综指收于 2763.59 点（周环比+3.10%），上证综指收于 4162.88 点（周环比+1.98%），科 创板收于 1488.02 点（周环比+1.20%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。 生猪养殖： 节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格继续下跌，整体来看供给端压力或使得价格仍有下跌空间。本周生猪出 栏均重为 127.73 公斤/头，目前生猪均重较历史同期偏高，生猪出栏均重或持续下降，行业出栏相对积极。从供给端 角度来看，2 月份预计出栏总量略有增加，整体节前仍有供给增量支撑，预计春节前后生猪价格仍有下探空间。政策 端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年猪价上涨。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降 空间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行 业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture and animal husbandry sectors, indicating a potential for growth in the coming months [22][31][41]. Core Insights - The agriculture and animal husbandry sectors are currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some areas showing signs of recovery while others remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market conditions, particularly in the pig farming and poultry sectors, where prices are expected to fluctuate based on supply constraints and consumer demand [22][31][37]. - Long-term prospects for the livestock industry remain optimistic, especially for leading companies that can maintain low costs and high-quality production [3][4][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture and animal husbandry index closed at 2976.84 points, up 1.82% week-on-week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of January 31, the national commodity pig price was 12.30 yuan/kg, down 5.17% week-on-week, with an average weight of 127.86 kg per head [22][23]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to weak supply and demand, but a potential recovery in the second half of the year is expected as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.74 yuan/kg, up 3.20% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in the market [31][35]. - The report suggests that if consumer demand improves, poultry prices may recover, with a focus on companies like Lihua Food and Shennong Development [4][35]. 2.3 Livestock - As of January 23, live cattle prices in Shandong were 27.08 yuan/kg, up 0.74% week-on-week, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a peak consumption season [37][41]. - The report notes that the dairy sector is also showing signs of improvement, with average purchase prices for raw milk stabilizing [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - Corn prices are expected to rise slightly due to tight supply conditions, while the overall planting sector is stabilizing [6][42]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor global weather conditions and their impact on crop yields, which could affect market dynamics [6][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various aquatic products [54][56]. - The report indicates a positive trend in the aquaculture sector, with prices for key products remaining steady [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in livestock and planting industries, suggesting potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the livestock segment facing challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and price pressures, while the planting sector shows signs of stabilization amid potential price increases [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-quality, low-cost enterprises in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, where there is potential for profit recovery as the market stabilizes [3][4][5]. - The planting industry is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at increasing crop yields and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by external factors [6][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2923.59 points, with a weekly increase of 0.40%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - As of January 23, the national commodity pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The average weight of pigs at market was 128.89 kg, showing a slight increase [22][23]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to weak supply and demand, but a potential recovery in the second half of the year is expected as industry capacity reduces [3][4][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.50 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.19% from the previous week. The report notes that while profits are under pressure, there are signs of improvement in the yellow feather chicken market due to better demand [4][28][33]. 2.3 Livestock - As of January 16, live cattle prices in Shandong were 26.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.67% increase week-on-week. The report suggests that beef prices may rise as the market enters a consumption peak [5][37][41]. - The dairy sector is also experiencing a reduction in capacity, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [5][41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices were reported at 2265.71 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.25%. The report indicates that the planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][43][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - As of January 23, feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices showed some upward movement, particularly for shellfish [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook due to ongoing challenges in various sub-sectors [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently facing a downturn, with the agricultural index declining by 1.49% week-on-week, underperforming compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant losses, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term, although there is potential for recovery in the medium to long term due to capacity reduction and policy support [3][20]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, particularly in yellow feathered chicken prices, driven by improved demand and supply contraction, while white feathered chicken prices remain under pressure [4][28]. - The beef and dairy sectors are also under pressure, with beef prices expected to rise as the market enters a consumption peak, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [5][36]. - The planting sector is witnessing fluctuations in grain prices, with corn prices showing slight increases amid tight supply conditions, and potential improvements expected if crop yields decline significantly [6][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is currently at 11.20 CNY/kg, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.09% [19]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 129.82 kg, indicating a slight increase, but the industry remains in a state of loss with negative profit margins for both purchased and self-bred pigs [20][19]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [3][20]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 7.27 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.11% [28]. - The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has shown improvement, although overall profits remain under pressure due to high supply levels [28]. - The report recommends monitoring companies like Lihua Agricultural and Shennong Group for potential investment as the market stabilizes [4][28]. 3. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.71 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.18% [5][36]. - The dairy sector is seeing a recovery in raw milk prices, with average procurement prices at 3.02 CNY/kg, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [5][36]. - The report highlights the potential for a new beef cycle and suggests focusing on companies like Yurun Group and Modern Dairy for investment [5][36]. 4. Planting Sector - Corn prices are currently at 2228.57 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.45% week-on-week, while soybean prices remain stable [41]. - The report notes that external uncertainties and weather disruptions could lead to reduced crop yields, which may improve the planting sector's outlook [6][41]. - Companies involved in seed production, such as Longping High-Tech, are recommended for monitoring as the sector seeks to enhance productivity [6][41]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.32 CNY/kg and poultry feed remaining unchanged [50]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.57%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average price of 11.19 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.87% [21]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the market, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing improvement due to better downstream demand [28]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [35]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2991.22 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry. The number of breeding sows is decreasing, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feathered chicken prices are improving due to better demand and supply contraction [4][28]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.80 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a consumption peak [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2218.57 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [48][55].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of price declines and potential capacity reduction [3][24]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a downward price trend, with average pig prices at 11.73 CNY/kg, indicating a 1.51% decrease week-on-week [23][24]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which have improved due to better downstream demand [4][40]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [5][44]. - The planting sector is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][48]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain products [64][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, remaining high historically, but prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply and limited seasonal storage capacity [3][24]. - The industry is currently in a loss-making state, with self-breeding profits at -114.81 CNY per head [23][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [24]. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, averaging 7.12 CNY/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing improvement due to demand recovery [4][40]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming remains challenged, but there are signs of recovery in the market [4][40]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are stable at 26.87 CNY/kg, with expectations for gradual increases as the consumption season approaches [5][44]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in average purchase prices, but there is potential for stabilization in raw milk prices next year [5][44]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2170.00 CNY/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [6][48]. - The sector is positioned at a low point but could improve if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][48]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 CNY/kg, while prices for various fish species are showing upward trends [64][68]. - The aquaculture sector is experiencing price increases for shrimp and other seafood products, indicating a positive market outlook [64][68].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [68]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% over the past week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pig farming industry, with prices continuing to decline and the entire sector currently facing losses [3][21]. - In the poultry farming sector, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][30]. - The beef and dairy sectors are expected to see price increases as the consumption season approaches, despite ongoing losses in these industries [5][36]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][42]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are stabilizing, with feed prices remaining steady and certain aquatic product prices showing upward trends [55][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is currently 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week, with a significant loss in farming profits [21][22]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space for prices to drop further [3][22]. - Long-term prospects for the swine industry remain positive, with recommendations to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are expected to improve due to better demand [4][30]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery if consumer demand strengthens [4][30]. 3. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.87 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady increases as the consumption season approaches [5][36]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in stock trends, but prices are expected to stabilize in the coming year as supply gradually decreases [5][36]. 4. Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2152.86 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [6][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and the potential for the planting sector to recover if significant reductions in production occur [6][42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [55][58]. - The report indicates a general stabilization in feed prices, which is beneficial for the overall profitability of the aquaculture sector [55][58].