Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

种植链： 近期玉米价格震荡上行，在种植户惜售的背景下，预计年前玉米供需格局偏紧，整体价格仍有小幅上涨空间。在外部 环境不确定性较强的背景下，我国持续推行种业振兴、通过提高粮食单产提升产量。同时全球天气出现一定程度的扰 动，整体农作物产量或出现一定程度的下降，目前种植板块景气度底部企稳，若粮食出现实质性减产，种植产业链有 望景气度出现改善。 行情回顾： 本周（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2946.58 点(周环比-1.49%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4584.54 点（周环比+1.28%），深证综指收于 2468.88 点（周环比+0.61%），上证综指收于 3902.81 点（周环比+0.37%），科 创板收于 1326.10 点（周环比-0.08%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 129.82 公斤/头，生猪出栏均重持续累积。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.57%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average price of 11.19 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.87% [21]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the market, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing improvement due to better downstream demand [28]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [35]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2991.22 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry. The number of breeding sows is decreasing, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feathered chicken prices are improving due to better demand and supply contraction [4][28]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.80 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a consumption peak [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2218.57 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [48][55].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3050.01 点(周环比+2.70%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4628.14 点（周环比-1.08%），深证综指收于 2511.55 点（周环比-0.31%），上证综指收于 3990.49 点（周环比-0.18%），科 创板收于 1361.23 点（周环比-3.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 128.48 公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策端主动去产能或持续 推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业 产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目 前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润，且 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [68]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% over the past week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pig farming industry, with prices continuing to decline and the entire sector currently facing losses [3][21]. - In the poultry farming sector, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][30]. - The beef and dairy sectors are expected to see price increases as the consumption season approaches, despite ongoing losses in these industries [5][36]. - The planting industry is experiencing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][42]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are stabilizing, with feed prices remaining steady and certain aquatic product prices showing upward trends [55][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is currently 11.91 yuan/kg, down 4.64% week-on-week, with a significant loss in farming profits [21][22]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space for prices to drop further [3][22]. - Long-term prospects for the swine industry remain positive, with recommendations to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is stable at 7.09 yuan/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are expected to improve due to better demand [4][30]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery if consumer demand strengthens [4][30]. 3. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.87 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady increases as the consumption season approaches [5][36]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in stock trends, but prices are expected to stabilize in the coming year as supply gradually decreases [5][36]. 4. Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2152.86 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [6][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and the potential for the planting sector to recover if significant reductions in production occur [6][42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and certain fish species [55][58]. - The report indicates a general stabilization in feed prices, which is beneficial for the overall profitability of the aquaculture sector [55][58].

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) has shown a contrary rise, with an increase of 0.6% and a trading volume of 5.25 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 200 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks include Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Longniu Mountain, and Hainan Rubber, with respective increases of 6.22%, 4.04%, and 2.56% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 4, 2025, to establish a full-chain regulatory mechanism for agricultural product quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the breeding industry, including ongoing losses in the pig industry, high levels of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [2] - The poultry industry is experiencing a historical high in production capacity, with broiler prices fluctuating at low levels, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [2] - The planting industry is stabilizing grain prices, with expectations for mid-term increases, and the seed industry is gaining strategic importance due to advancements in genetically modified crops [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in livestock and feed industries, with a focus on identifying quality companies for investment opportunities [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing significant price fluctuations and profitability challenges, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the beef and dairy markets as seasonal demand increases, while also noting the ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector due to price declines [3][4][5][6]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if crop yields decrease significantly [6][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - Current pig prices are in a downward trend, with the average weight of pigs at 128.25 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price drops [3][22]. - The report anticipates continued increases in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further price declines [3][22]. - Long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies in the sector, with recommendations to focus on low-cost producers like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is stabilizing, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing resilience due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction [4][36]. - The report notes that while white feathered chicken prices are under pressure, overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve with a recovery in consumer demand [4][38]. Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise as the consumption season approaches, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [5][42]. - The report indicates that the beef and dairy sectors are currently facing losses, but a recovery is anticipated as demand increases and supply contracts [5][43]. Planting Industry - The planting sector is experiencing price volatility due to new corn harvests and ongoing uncertainties regarding soybean imports [6][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and suggests that a significant reduction in crop production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various feed types [6][62]. - The aquaculture sector is showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [6][62].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with a focus on potential opportunities in specific sub-sectors like pig farming and beef production [2][19]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight decline of 1.97% this week, while the overall market indices have performed better, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [13][14]. - In pig farming, there is an expectation of continued price pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and policy-driven capacity reductions, suggesting a cautious outlook in the short term but potential for recovery in the medium to long term [3][20]. - Poultry farming is experiencing weak prices, but there is optimism for recovery as consumer demand improves, particularly for yellow feathered chickens [4][28]. - The beef market is entering a consumption peak, with expectations for price increases, while dairy farming is facing ongoing capacity reductions due to financial pressures [5][36]. - The planting sector is under pressure from fluctuating commodity prices, but there is potential for improvement if significant crop reductions occur [6][42]. - Feed and aquaculture prices are stabilizing, with some positive trends in aquatic product prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for these segments [56][61]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is currently at 12.45 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [19]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.55 kg, showing a slight increase from the previous week [19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][20]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 6.90 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.29% from last week [28]. - The profitability for parent stock chicken farming has improved, while broiler chicken farming remains under pressure [28]. Beef and Dairy - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.24 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.69% [36]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in beef prices as the consumption season approaches, while dairy prices are expected to stabilize in the coming year [5][36]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2288.57 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.06% [42]. - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance grain yields and the potential for improved sector performance if crop yields decline significantly [6][43]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are at 3.34 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.30% [56]. - Aquaculture prices are showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in shrimp prices [56][61].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture sector, particularly in livestock and planting industries, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][24]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.81% [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of improved profitability in the medium term due to controlled production capacity [24]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices but is expected to recover as consumer demand improves [39]. - The beef and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices and a potential new cycle in beef production [40]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with government support and potential improvements in crop yields due to external factors [46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture index closed at 3103.24 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.81%, outperforming major indices [2][17]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week, with a slight increase in average weight at 128.32 kg/head [23][24]. - The report anticipates a short-term price stabilization but warns of potential downward pressure due to supply increases [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 2.09% week-on-week [39]. - The report notes that the poultry sector is under pressure but expects recovery with improved consumer demand [39]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.29 yuan/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the beef market [40]. - The report suggests that the dairy sector may see price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [40]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2302.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if crop yields are affected by external factors [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [64]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with various fish prices remaining stable or slightly increasing [64].