投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.07.14-2025.07.18）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2755.32 点(周环比-0.14%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4058.55 点（周环比+1.09%），深证综指收于 2153.71 点（周环比+1.74%），上证综指收于 3534.48 点（周环比+0.69%），科 创板收于 1007.53 点（周环比+1.32%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 128.83 公斤/头，行业整体均重有所反复，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.07%至 16.85%，主要系需 求偏弱导致屠宰场被动入库，在散户出栏积极性略有提升的背景下，生猪价格小幅调整。近期集团场第一阶段降重放 缓，但是由于天气炎热，整体压栏程度较此前放松；此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续加强环保管理，部分母 猪场因环保因素开始整顿。当下猪价表现下成本领先的头部养殖企业生猪盈利超 200 元/头，预计头部企业在上半年 有望实现较好盈利，而在供给压力持续后移的背景下，下半年猪价或存在一定压力，若行业产能有序调控，中期行业 盈利中枢有望提升。目前生猪价格表现强于此前市场预期使得 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.30-2025.07.4）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2729.26 点(周环比+2.55%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3982.20 点（周环比+1.54%），深证综指收于 2075.71 点（周环比+1.13%），上证综指收于 3472.32 点（周环比+1.40%），科 创板收于 984.80 点（周环比-0.35%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 截至 7 月 4 日，全国商品猪价格为 15.35 元/公斤，周环比+4.28%；15KG 仔猪价格为 32.20 元/公斤，周环比+0.56%； 本周生猪出栏均重为 128.64 公斤/头，行业整体均重有所反复，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.10%至 16.67%，主要系需 求偏弱导致屠宰场被动入库，在天气等因素的影响下，生猪价格有所反弹。集团场第一阶段降重放缓，部分散养户开 始惜售，整体散户出栏均重出现回升；此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续加强环保管理。当下猪价表现下成本 领先的头部养殖企业生猪盈利超 200 元/头，预计头部企业在上半年有望实现较好盈利，而在供给压力持续后移的背 景下，下半年猪 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

牧业： 截至 6 月 14 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.71 元/公斤，环比-0.01%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 5 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.05 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-8.1%，奶价下跌 幅度持续放缓，散奶方面近期维持在 2.5-2.6 元/公斤。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望企稳回升，目前原奶价格依旧低迷，随着青贮季到来，预计行业去产能有望加速；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格 已经上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.09-2025.06.13）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2725.63 点(周环比+1.62%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3864.18 点（周环比-0.25%），深证综指收于 2001.06 点（周环比-0.33%），上证综指收于 3377.00 点（周环比-0.25%），科 创板收于 972.94 点（周环比-1.89%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 有色金属（周环比+3.79 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.02-2025.06.06）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2682.22 点(周环比+0.91%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3873.98 点（周环比+0.88%），深证综指收于 2007.69 点（周环比+1.82%），上证综指收于 3385.36 点（周环比+1.13%），科 创板收于 991.64 点（周环比+1.50%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 通信（周环比+5.27%）、有色金属（周环比+3.74%)、电子（周环比+3.60%），农林牧渔（周环比+0.91%）排名第 20。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.17 公斤/头，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.04%至 16.25%，均重下降速度环比上周有所放 缓，供给持续增加下短期猪价持续调整。根据涌益咨询/钢联数据，5 月份样本企业能繁母猪存栏分 别环比 +0.32%/+0.45%，能繁母猪存栏在盈利背景下依旧小幅提升。目前在政策引导&猪价持续转弱的背景下，预计能繁母猪 存栏后续增长有限，中期或趋势线下，利好中期行业良性发展。当下猪价表现下成本领先的头部养殖 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.05.12-2025.05.16）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2620.55 点(周环比+0.05%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3889.09 点（周环比+1.12%），深证综指收于 1986.50 点（周环比+0.80%），上证综指收于 3367.46 点（周环比+0.76%），科 创板收于 995.24 点（周环比-1.10%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 美容护理（周环比+3.08%）、非银金融（周环比+2.49%)、汽车（周环比+2.40%），农林牧渔（周环比+0.05%）排名第 20。 生猪养殖： 本周生猪出栏均重为 129.71 公斤/头，生猪均重处于历史同期较高位置，同时本周行业冻品库容率环比-0.12pct 至 16.38%，近期生猪存在增重、二育以及冻品入库等累库行为，累库下生猪价格震荡，行业供给压力持续后移，预计生 猪价格随着供给的增加和库存端的压力释放存在下跌空间。目前关于猪价悲观预期已经在期货端有较为充分的释放， 而年后价格表现强于此前预期使得整体预期略有上修，产能端缓慢的补充状态对2025年猪价的担忧存在 ...