东莞证券指出，近期生猪价格回落，头均盈利持续亏损，有望倒逼能繁母猪产能去化，目前存栏仍处高 位，未来仍有较大去化空间。白羽肉鸡价格略有回升，关注养殖龙头盈利边际改善机会。种业方面，农 业农村部提出加快实现种业科技自立自强、种源自主可控。 太平洋证券指出，养殖业面临多重压力：生猪行业持续亏损，产能去化动力增强，能繁母猪存栏较去年 末高点减少37万头，自繁自养头均亏损114元，叠加非瘟疫情风险上升和政策引导减产能，行业去化加 速。白鸡方面，毛鸡价格低位震荡，祖代存栏处历史高位，但预计明年年中供给减少将带动价格反弹； 黄鸡受益消费旺季，产能低位支撑价格高位。动保行业景气回升，抗生素价格保持高位，国产疫苗增长 显著。 11月21日，截至9时54分，农牧渔ETF（159275）逆市上攻，场内价格现涨0.4%，成交额为143万元。 成份股方面，荃银高科20CM涨停，神农种业和中水渔业亦表现强势。另一方面，华英农业、益客食品 和冠农股份表现较弱。 消息面上，2025年11月14日行业数据显示生猪价格回落至11.74元/公斤，养殖利润持续承压，或加速上 游产能去化；同期白羽肉鸡价格回升至7.12元/公斤，养殖龙头盈利边际改善 ...

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) has shown a contrary rise, with an increase of 0.6% and a trading volume of 5.25 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 200 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks include Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Longniu Mountain, and Hainan Rubber, with respective increases of 6.22%, 4.04%, and 2.56% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 4, 2025, to establish a full-chain regulatory mechanism for agricultural product quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the breeding industry, including ongoing losses in the pig industry, high levels of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [2] - The poultry industry is experiencing a historical high in production capacity, with broiler prices fluctuating at low levels, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [2] - The planting industry is stabilizing grain prices, with expectations for mid-term increases, and the seed industry is gaining strategic importance due to advancements in genetically modified crops [2]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.2% increase in price and a trading volume of 6.91 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 203 million yuan as of November 5 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Shennong Seed Industry had the highest increase at 6.4%, followed by Luoniushan at 5.24%, and Zhongxing Junye at 3.46%. Conversely, Tianma Technology experienced the largest decline at 1.79%, with Meihua Biological and Tianma Technology also showing declines of 1.92% and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, including feed import registration certificates and agricultural transgenic biological safety certificates, transitioning to full electronic certification by 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the egg-laying chicken industry is expected to see a significant reduction in domestic breeding volume to 41,200 birds by 2025, indicating a shift from surplus to tight supply. The white chicken industry is also experiencing a contraction in production capacity due to three years of bottoming out and overseas breeding disruptions [2] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to undergo capacity reduction due to low prices and policy guidance, while dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, nearing the end of the reduction phase. Beef prices may see unexpected increases [2] - The planting sector is accelerating the commercialization of transgenic corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies. The aquaculture feed sector is recovering from a downturn, with leading companies increasing their market share [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Meihua Biological, New Hope Liuhe, Dabeinong, Bio-Stock, Shennong Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [3]

Group 1 - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.9% and a trading volume of 8.65 million yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 203 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among the constituent stocks include Tianma Technology, Huaying Agriculture, and Shennong Seed Industry, with increases of 4.65%, 3.75%, and 3.73% respectively [1] - Conversely, Muyuan Foods, Zhongxing Junye, and Ruipu Biological exhibited weaker performance, with declines of 2.95%, 2.51%, and 2.48% respectively [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods reported a third-quarter revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.52%, indicating stable performance in pig farming [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group celebrated its 10th anniversary, having supplied 43 million tons of livestock products to the market over the decade, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the livestock industry, including ongoing losses in the pig sector, high inventory of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [1] - The white chicken industry is expected to rebound mid-term due to low prices, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [1] Group 3 - According to Caitong Securities, pig prices continue to rise as supply decreases, with a 0.20% month-on-month decline in the inventory of breeding sows, indicating potential acceleration in capacity reduction [2] - The poultry industry faces uncertainties due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza abroad, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to recover, driven by new product launches [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) passively tracks the agricultural and livestock index, with top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Group 1: Swine Sector - The pig sector is experiencing a shift from profit to loss in piglet exports, emphasizing the need to focus on the expected differences in the swine sector [1] - Current average weights for pig slaughter remain high historically, while high temperatures are suppressing consumption demand, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [1] - A meeting on September 16 will analyze the current production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures, with expectations for capacity reduction in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] - The sector is considered undervalued, with key companies like Muyuan Foods valued at 3500-4000 RMB per head, while others like New Hope and Tian Kang Biological are below 2000 RMB per head [1] - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on New Hope and other flexible stocks [1] Group 2: Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is expected to bottom out, with potential recovery as the dairy cow capacity reduction nears its end [2] - The beef market may be entering a super cycle, but various factors such as funding and environmental concerns may limit restocking enthusiasm [2] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [2] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [2] Group 3: Pet Sector - The pet economy in China is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, highlighting the importance of companies with high domestic revenue growth [3] - Key recommendations include pet food companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with additional focus on pet medical and supply companies [3] Group 4: Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is advised to focus on changes in breeding imports, as the industry has been in a downturn for three years [4] - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a core variable; prices are expected to improve as consumption increases in the second half of the year [5] - The egg-laying chicken sector is seeing high chick prices due to import restrictions, with a focus on companies with high market share [6] - Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Lihua Group for white chicken, and Xiaoming Co. for egg-laying chickens [4][5][6] Group 5: Planting Sector - The conventional seed industry is awaiting a turnaround, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding opportunities [7] - The contribution of yield improvement to grain production is expected to exceed 80% in 2024, emphasizing the need for high-yield production [7] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector, and Xinyangfeng in agricultural inputs [7] Group 6: Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and consistent performance [8] - The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition, with an emphasis on innovation and new product development [9] - Recommended companies in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological and others focusing on pet health products [9]

Core Viewpoint - The companion animal business of leading animal health companies in China, such as Hai Zheng Dong Bao, Rui Pu Sheng Wu, and Jin He Sheng Wu, has shown significant growth, driven by product innovation and channel expansion, indicating a shift towards the companion animal market amid the rising "pet economy" [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Rui Pu Sheng Wu's pet business achieved a revenue of 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.94%, with the pet supply chain revenue reaching 376 million yuan, up 18.49% [1]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao's pet business grew over 60%, with expectations that pet business will account for over 50% of its total revenue by 2025 [2]. - Jin He Sheng Wu is actively advancing its pet health business, currently offering 15 pet products, including 8 health products and 1 rabies vaccine [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Rui Pu Sheng Wu focuses on technological research and development, holding 115 new veterinary drug registration certificates, including 17 for pet products [3]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao emphasizes the optimization and upgrading of pet medicines, with products like Xi Bei An being the only compliant compound for cat deworming [3]. - Jin He Sheng Wu has made significant progress in pet vaccine research, recently obtaining a patent for a dual-subunit vaccine for feline infectious respiratory disease and feline panleukopenia [3]. Group 3: Sales Expansion - Rui Pu Sheng Wu has established a nationwide pet medical supply chain service network, reaching 8,400 pet hospitals and 3,500 pet stores, with ongoing expansion into new regional markets [3]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao is enhancing its online self-operated e-commerce capabilities, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales during the first half of the year, with a significant increase in orders during the "618" shopping festival [3]. - Jin He Sheng Wu is leveraging AI technology to create a digital channel through its pet app "Ai Chong Yi," which integrates service and sales, enhancing user engagement and sales opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The profitability of the downstream breeding sector is gradually improving, leading to a continuous recovery in the company's performance for the first half of 2025. The company achieved a revenue of 487 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [7] - The improvement in demand and the rich product matrix have contributed to a sequential improvement in gross margin, which increased by 2.83 percentage points to 68.7% in Q2 2025. The company has also received four new veterinary drug registration certificates, including new vaccines for pigs, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [7] - The anti-involution policy may boost pig prices, which could enhance the demand for animal health products and improve the overall breeding sector's profitability, positively impacting the company's performance [7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 1,064 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 6%. However, a decline of 11% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 396 million yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 3% in 2024, and then a recovery with growth rates of 16%, 14%, and 16% in the following years [2][13] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.6 in 2023 to 14.5 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [2][14] Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute performance increase of 55% over the past 12 months, outperforming the benchmark index [5]

Group 1 - The regulatory scrutiny on capital markets remains stringent, with both the auditing firm and the company being penalized for violations [1][2] - The auditing firm, Crowe Horwath, and two signing accountants faced administrative measures due to inadequate audit procedures regarding R&D expenses and long-term equity investments for the company [1] - The company, BioShares, received a warning letter from the Inner Mongolia Securities Regulatory Bureau for three major violations, including inaccurate capitalized R&D expenses and failure to disclose litigation information [2] Group 2 - BioShares reported a significant decline in financial performance for 2024, with revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, down 21.45%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, down 61.57% [2] - The company anticipates a further decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 57 million to 70 million yuan, a decrease of 43.05% to 53.63% year-on-year [3] - Factors contributing to the decline include increased R&D expenses for human antibody drugs, depreciation of intangible assets, intensified competition in the animal health industry, and falling product prices [3]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Insights - Despite low pig prices, market expectations for future prices have improved due to policy adjustments on sow inventory, pig weight, and breeding scale. The fund's heavy positions in the breeding sector have increased, with a fund heavy position of 0.50% in Q2 2025, up by 0.06 percentage points. The overweight ratio decreased by 0.03 percentage points, up by 0.04 percentage points [5][20] - The feed sector's fund heavy position has significantly increased, supported by the recovery of livestock and aquaculture inventory. The fund heavy position in the feed sector reached 0.52% in Q2 2025, with an overweight ratio of 0.26%, up by 0.11 percentage points [10][20] - The animal health and planting sectors have seen a slight decline in allocation ratios. The fund heavy position in the animal health sector was 0.01%, down by 0.007 percentage points, while the planting sector's heavy position was 0.05%, down by 0.02 percentage points [11][27] Summary by Sections 1. Fund Allocation in Agriculture Sector - The fund allocation in the agriculture sector has slightly increased, with a fund heavy position of 1.09% in Q2 2025, up by 0.17 percentage points. The sector's overweight ratio improved by 0.10 percentage points [16] 2. Investment Recommendations - **Pig Breeding**: In H2 2025, pig supply is expected to remain ample, with prices likely to fluctuate at relatively low levels. Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [13][37] - **Feed**: Anticipated increases in pig and aquaculture inventory in Q3 may drive demand recovery, benefiting the feed market. Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Group [38] - **Pet Consumption**: The domestic pet economy is experiencing growth, with a focus on local brands. Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co. and Guai Bao Pet [39]

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - Tin Industry - The company, Xiyie Co., is a global leader in the tin and indium industry, expected to benefit significantly from the rising price center, leading to profit enhancement. The company has excellent resource endowments with substantial growth potential in tin, tungsten, and indium production [2][4]. - The domestic market share of the company in tin metal is projected to reach 47.98% in 2024, with a global market share of 25.03%, positioning it as the top tin producer worldwide. The company plans to invest 101 million yuan in exploration, adding 52,400 tons of non-ferrous metal resources in 2024 [4]. - The company is actively pursuing both internal resource development and external partnerships to enhance its industry chain advantages, with a production scale of 1.5 million tons/year for tin and 560,000 tons/year for tungsten planned [4][5]. Group 2: Agriculture - Animal Health Industry - Ruip Bio is a leading player in the domestic animal health industry, with robust growth in both livestock and pet health segments. The company is expected to see steady progress in livestock health and rapid growth in pet health products, with a projected market size of 20.95 billion yuan for pet medicine by 2024 [6][7]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate of over 16% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, with total revenue expected to reach 3.07 billion yuan in 2024. The company has established a strong presence in over 70 cities through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix in pet health, with a significant emphasis on vaccine development, including a breakthrough in the cat trivalent vaccine, which is expected to double revenue in 2025 [6][7]. Group 3: Communication - New Yi Sheng - New Yi Sheng has raised its earnings forecast and target price, maintaining a buy rating. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.7 to 4.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [9][10]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with the first phase of its factory in Thailand completed in the first half of 2023 and the second phase expected to be operational in early 2025. The demand for 1.6T products is anticipated to begin ramping up in the second half of 2025 [10].