摘要 生猪产业从周期性转向价值投资，不再依赖猪价波动，而是关注龙头企 业通过成本控制、价值提升和海外扩张实现的持续增长，预示着行业整 合和龙头企业盈利能力增强。 宠物食品行业维持增长态势，但竞争加剧，龙头企业市场份额加速提升。 品牌高端化和把握抖音等新兴电商渠道是破局关键，行业集中度提升将 带来投资机会。 饲料企业积极拓展海外市场，尤其在东南亚、非洲和南美等地，凭借技 术、管理和服务优势实现增长，海外市场潜力巨大，为饲料企业带来新 的增长点。 智能农业装备领域"机器换人"趋势加速，无人机、机器人和 AI 技术融 合降低成本，解决农村劳动力短缺问题，智能农业装备产业链迎来发展 机遇。 宠物医疗行业连锁化率提升空间大，龙头企业通过股权激励和分级诊疗 模式提升竞争力，行业集中化进程加速，利好具有竞争优势的连锁品牌。 动保行业国产替代加速，尤其在宠物疫苗领域，国产猫三联疫苗打破进 口垄断。企业加大 mRNA 疫苗等前沿技术研发，提升核心竞争力。 玉米市场供需平衡表边际改善，库存消费比下降，预计价格回暖趋势延 续。大豆市场供给压力有所缓解，南美产量预期将影响未来价格走势。 Q&A 请简要回顾 2025 年的农业板块投资 ...

风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件，了解基金 的风险收益特征，选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金投 资须谨慎！销售机构（包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构）根据相关法律法规对本基金进行风险 评价，投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见，各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致，且 基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金 合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收 益情况，结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国 证监会对上述基金的注册，并不表明其对上述基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保 证。基金投资须谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 12月15日，截至10时19分，农牧渔ETF（159275）盘中表现稳健，场内价格现涨1.12%，成交额为429万 元。 成份股方面，正 ...

Group 1 - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) is showing resilience with a 0.4% increase in market price and a transaction volume of 1.43 million yuan as of November 21 [1] - Key stocks in the ETF include strong performers such as Quanyin High-Tech, Shennong Seed Industry, and Zhongshui Fishery, while Huaying Agriculture, Yike Food, and Guannong Co. are underperforming [1] - The price of live pigs has dropped to 11.74 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing pressure on breeding profits, which may accelerate upstream capacity reduction [1][2] Group 2 - The price of white feather broilers has increased to 7.12 yuan/kg, suggesting improved profit margins for leading breeders [1] - Dongguan Securities highlights that the decline in pig prices and continued losses per head may drive the reduction of breeding sow capacity, with current stock levels remaining high [1][2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for technological self-reliance in seed industry development [1][2] Group 3 - The livestock industry is facing multiple pressures, including ongoing losses in the pig sector and a reduction in breeding sow stock by 370,000 heads compared to last year's peak [2] - The price of broiler chickens is expected to rebound by mid-next year due to anticipated supply reductions, while yellow chickens benefit from seasonal demand [2] - The animal health industry is experiencing a recovery, with high antibiotic prices and significant growth in domestic vaccines [2] Group 4 - The agricultural and livestock ETF and its linked funds passively track the agricultural and livestock index, with top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) has shown a contrary rise, with an increase of 0.6% and a trading volume of 5.25 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 200 million yuan [1] - Key performing stocks include Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, Longniu Mountain, and Hainan Rubber, with respective increases of 6.22%, 4.04%, and 2.56% [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 4, 2025, to establish a full-chain regulatory mechanism for agricultural product quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the breeding industry, including ongoing losses in the pig industry, high levels of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [2] - The poultry industry is experiencing a historical high in production capacity, with broiler prices fluctuating at low levels, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [2] - The planting industry is stabilizing grain prices, with expectations for mid-term increases, and the seed industry is gaining strategic importance due to advancements in genetically modified crops [2]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 0.2% increase in price and a trading volume of 6.91 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 203 million yuan as of November 5 [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Shennong Seed Industry had the highest increase at 6.4%, followed by Luoniushan at 5.24%, and Zhongxing Junye at 3.46%. Conversely, Tianma Technology experienced the largest decline at 1.79%, with Meihua Biological and Tianma Technology also showing declines of 1.92% and 1.57% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, including feed import registration certificates and agricultural transgenic biological safety certificates, transitioning to full electronic certification by 2026 [1] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the egg-laying chicken industry is expected to see a significant reduction in domestic breeding volume to 41,200 birds by 2025, indicating a shift from surplus to tight supply. The white chicken industry is also experiencing a contraction in production capacity due to three years of bottoming out and overseas breeding disruptions [2] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to undergo capacity reduction due to low prices and policy guidance, while dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, nearing the end of the reduction phase. Beef prices may see unexpected increases [2] - The planting sector is accelerating the commercialization of transgenic corn, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies. The aquaculture feed sector is recovering from a downturn, with leading companies increasing their market share [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Meihua Biological, New Hope Liuhe, Dabeinong, Bio-Stock, Shennong Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [3]

Group 1 - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) showed weak performance with a price drop of 0.9% and a trading volume of 8.65 million yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 203 million yuan [1] - Notable performers among the constituent stocks include Tianma Technology, Huaying Agriculture, and Shennong Seed Industry, with increases of 4.65%, 3.75%, and 3.73% respectively [1] - Conversely, Muyuan Foods, Zhongxing Junye, and Ruipu Biological exhibited weaker performance, with declines of 2.95%, 2.51%, and 2.48% respectively [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods reported a third-quarter revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.52%, indicating stable performance in pig farming [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group celebrated its 10th anniversary, having supplied 43 million tons of livestock products to the market over the decade, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted multiple pressures on the livestock industry, including ongoing losses in the pig sector, high inventory of breeding sows, and rising risks from African swine fever [1] - The white chicken industry is expected to rebound mid-term due to low prices, while yellow chicken prices are rising due to seasonal demand [1] Group 3 - According to Caitong Securities, pig prices continue to rise as supply decreases, with a 0.20% month-on-month decline in the inventory of breeding sows, indicating potential acceleration in capacity reduction [2] - The poultry industry faces uncertainties due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza abroad, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry [2] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to recover, driven by new product launches [2] - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) passively tracks the agricultural and livestock index, with top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Group 1: Swine Sector - The pig sector is experiencing a shift from profit to loss in piglet exports, emphasizing the need to focus on the expected differences in the swine sector [1] - Current average weights for pig slaughter remain high historically, while high temperatures are suppressing consumption demand, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [1] - A meeting on September 16 will analyze the current production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures, with expectations for capacity reduction in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] - The sector is considered undervalued, with key companies like Muyuan Foods valued at 3500-4000 RMB per head, while others like New Hope and Tian Kang Biological are below 2000 RMB per head [1] - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on New Hope and other flexible stocks [1] Group 2: Cattle Sector - The raw milk price is expected to bottom out, with potential recovery as the dairy cow capacity reduction nears its end [2] - The beef market may be entering a super cycle, but various factors such as funding and environmental concerns may limit restocking enthusiasm [2] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [2] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Guangming Meat [2] Group 3: Pet Sector - The pet economy in China is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, highlighting the importance of companies with high domestic revenue growth [3] - Key recommendations include pet food companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with additional focus on pet medical and supply companies [3] Group 4: Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is advised to focus on changes in breeding imports, as the industry has been in a downturn for three years [4] - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a core variable; prices are expected to improve as consumption increases in the second half of the year [5] - The egg-laying chicken sector is seeing high chick prices due to import restrictions, with a focus on companies with high market share [6] - Recommended stocks include Shennong Development and Lihua Group for white chicken, and Xiaoming Co. for egg-laying chickens [4][5][6] Group 5: Planting Sector - The conventional seed industry is awaiting a turnaround, with a focus on the industrialization of biological breeding opportunities [7] - The contribution of yield improvement to grain production is expected to exceed 80% in 2024, emphasizing the need for high-yield production [7] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector, and Xinyangfeng in agricultural inputs [7] Group 6: Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for Haida Group, which is expected to see market share growth and consistent performance [8] - The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition, with an emphasis on innovation and new product development [9] - Recommended companies in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological and others focusing on pet health products [9]

Core Viewpoint - The companion animal business of leading animal health companies in China, such as Hai Zheng Dong Bao, Rui Pu Sheng Wu, and Jin He Sheng Wu, has shown significant growth, driven by product innovation and channel expansion, indicating a shift towards the companion animal market amid the rising "pet economy" [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Rui Pu Sheng Wu's pet business achieved a revenue of 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.94%, with the pet supply chain revenue reaching 376 million yuan, up 18.49% [1]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao's pet business grew over 60%, with expectations that pet business will account for over 50% of its total revenue by 2025 [2]. - Jin He Sheng Wu is actively advancing its pet health business, currently offering 15 pet products, including 8 health products and 1 rabies vaccine [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Rui Pu Sheng Wu focuses on technological research and development, holding 115 new veterinary drug registration certificates, including 17 for pet products [3]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao emphasizes the optimization and upgrading of pet medicines, with products like Xi Bei An being the only compliant compound for cat deworming [3]. - Jin He Sheng Wu has made significant progress in pet vaccine research, recently obtaining a patent for a dual-subunit vaccine for feline infectious respiratory disease and feline panleukopenia [3]. Group 3: Sales Expansion - Rui Pu Sheng Wu has established a nationwide pet medical supply chain service network, reaching 8,400 pet hospitals and 3,500 pet stores, with ongoing expansion into new regional markets [3]. - Hai Zheng Dong Bao is enhancing its online self-operated e-commerce capabilities, achieving over 100 million yuan in sales during the first half of the year, with a significant increase in orders during the "618" shopping festival [3]. - Jin He Sheng Wu is leveraging AI technology to create a digital channel through its pet app "Ai Chong Yi," which integrates service and sales, enhancing user engagement and sales opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The profitability of the downstream breeding sector is gradually improving, leading to a continuous recovery in the company's performance for the first half of 2025. The company achieved a revenue of 487 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [7] - The improvement in demand and the rich product matrix have contributed to a sequential improvement in gross margin, which increased by 2.83 percentage points to 68.7% in Q2 2025. The company has also received four new veterinary drug registration certificates, including new vaccines for pigs, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [7] - The anti-involution policy may boost pig prices, which could enhance the demand for animal health products and improve the overall breeding sector's profitability, positively impacting the company's performance [7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 1,064 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 6%. However, a decline of 11% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][13] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 396 million yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 3% in 2024, and then a recovery with growth rates of 16%, 14%, and 16% in the following years [2][13] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.6 in 2023 to 14.5 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [2][14] Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown an absolute performance increase of 55% over the past 12 months, outperforming the benchmark index [5]

Group 1 - The regulatory scrutiny on capital markets remains stringent, with both the auditing firm and the company being penalized for violations [1][2] - The auditing firm, Crowe Horwath, and two signing accountants faced administrative measures due to inadequate audit procedures regarding R&D expenses and long-term equity investments for the company [1] - The company, BioShares, received a warning letter from the Inner Mongolia Securities Regulatory Bureau for three major violations, including inaccurate capitalized R&D expenses and failure to disclose litigation information [2] Group 2 - BioShares reported a significant decline in financial performance for 2024, with revenue of 1.255 billion yuan, down 21.45%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, down 61.57% [2] - The company anticipates a further decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 57 million to 70 million yuan, a decrease of 43.05% to 53.63% year-on-year [3] - Factors contributing to the decline include increased R&D expenses for human antibody drugs, depreciation of intangible assets, intensified competition in the animal health industry, and falling product prices [3]