Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for the aluminium market, with expectations of a surplus extending through 2027, leading to lower price forecasts [8][12][20]. Core Insights - The global aluminium demand forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.1% y/y to 1.8% y/y due to less severe impacts from the trade war, but forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain largely unchanged [3][8]. - Indonesian aluminium production is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated, contributing to a market surplus of 1 million tonnes in 2026, the largest since 2020 [8][12][13]. - Cost deflation from lower alumina and energy prices is expected to exert downward pressure on aluminium prices, with forecasts indicating a decline to $2,100/t in early 2026 [8][27][28]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecast - The report has adjusted the global aluminium demand forecast for 2026 and 2027 downwards due to reduced solar demand, resulting in a decrease of 0.3/0.6% in total aluminium demand [3][20]. - The solar sector's demand for aluminium is expected to decline significantly due to new policies affecting solar installations in China [20][24]. Supply Outlook - The supply forecast for Indonesia has been upgraded, with three new smelters expected to be operational by mid-2026, increasing the supply forecast by 750/550kt in 2026/2027 [12][13][14]. - Indonesia is projected to account for 9% of ex-China aluminium production by 2030, up from 2% in 2024 [13]. Price Forecast - The aluminium price is expected to fall to a low of $2,100/t in early 2026, with a trading range of $2,150-2,550/t anticipated in subsequent years [8][27]. - Average price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to $2,230/t and $2,500/t, respectively, reflecting a more bearish outlook [8][35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the aluminium premiums industry, but it suggests hedging strategies for European consumers due to limited downside risks [3][13]. Core Insights - The report introduces a framework for determining the fair value of aluminium premiums, which helps identify inefficient pricing across physical markets and gauge market tightness [5][6]. - Current premiums in the US are close to fair value, but there are downside risks due to a forecasted decline in LME prices and potential tariff exclusions [3][11]. - European premiums are trading near multi-year lows, presenting an attractive opportunity for consumers to hedge their exposure [3][13]. Summary by Sections Fair Value Methodology - The report develops an anchor and spread methodology to determine fair value for aluminium premiums, focusing on the price paid over the LME price for physical delivery [2][5]. - The anchor is based on the premium that an LME warehouse in Asia would pay, with a calculated warehouse incentive set at $83/t [7]. US Market Analysis - The US Midwest premium is currently trading around $839/t, with duties accounting for 70% of this premium [9][11]. - The report estimates that the US Midwest premium is undervalued by $30/t based on the current spot LME price, but advises against buying due to a bearish price forecast [11]. European Market Analysis - The Rotterdam Duty Paid premium is currently $200/t, trading at a $55-60/t discount to fair value, indicating limited downside risk [13]. - The report anticipates an increase in European imports from Canada due to US tariffs, which may further stabilize European premiums [13]. Freight Rates and Their Impact - The report suggests that freight rates have limited downside potential, with most declines already realized, impacting the European duty unpaid premium significantly [14][20]. - A forecasted decline in container freight rates could lower the European premium modestly by $6-10/t [14].