炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：李超宏观研究与资产配置） 分析师：李超/林成炜/廖博/何佳烨/潘高远/费瑾/王瑞明 研究助理：汤子玉 具体参见2026年1月2日报告《12月经济前瞻：工业生产引领增长，蓄力一季度开门红——2025年12月宏观数据预测》，如需报告全文或数据底稿，请联系 团队成员或对口销售。 全文约16000字，阅读大约需要36分钟 我们预计2025年四季度GDP同比增速为4.6%，经济运行呈现生产偏强、需求修复偏温和的格局：供给端，工业生产延续稳增长态势，对增长形成主要支 撑；需求端，12月社零同比预计小幅回升，以旧换新资金前置与元旦"拼假"效应对消费构成托底，但汽车在销量同比下滑与年末加大折扣导致的量价双压 下仍是主要拖累。投资端仍处低位，制造业投资相对有韧性，但基建偏弱、地产继续承压，制约内需弹性。外需保持韧性，出口增速预计维持正增长。价 格层面，CPI温和、PPI负值收敛但通胀修复仍偏缓。金融数据仍显示信用扩张偏弱，M1、M2增速小幅回落。综合来看，一方面，12月经济活动相较上月 总体加快，12月随着内外需修复及年底各行业年度收官冲刺，有望 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines measures to ensure a strong economic start in the first quarter of 2026, emphasizing the importance of consumer spending and investment [2][24] - Key initiatives include promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, enhancing retail and wholesale support, and accelerating the development of the accommodation and catering industries [3][8][10][12] Group 2 - The plan includes expanding effective investment through optimized project mechanisms and accelerating project initiation, particularly in infrastructure and key industries [24][30] - Specific projects highlighted for development include the integration of coal and phosphate chemical industries, highway construction, and large reservoir projects [30][32] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of supporting key enterprises and industries to stabilize production and expand capacity, with a focus on reducing operational costs and enhancing service quality [40][43] - Measures to support the digital economy and new energy sectors are also emphasized, including the promotion of data centers and electric vehicle production [51][53] Group 4 - The article addresses agricultural production, emphasizing the need for effective spring sowing and ensuring the supply of agricultural products [57][61] - It also highlights the importance of maintaining employment stability and ensuring the supply of essential goods and energy during the winter [65][67] Group 5 - Safety production measures are outlined, focusing on risk prevention in key sectors and ensuring public safety during the winter season [70]

据介绍，相关方案在目标设定上体现量质齐升，突出稳增长与优结构并重，各方案均设定了到2026年的 具体量化增长目标。如，钢铁行业增加值增长4%左右、新能源汽车产量达到120万辆、电子信息制造业 营收突破8500亿元、石化化工行业增加值增长5%以上等，明确了稳增长的基本盘。同时，普遍将技术 装备水平提升、产品结构优化等作为核心指标，如力争高端化工占全省化工产业的比重达到60%以上 等。在路径谋划上，以项目建设为支撑，突出优供给与扩需求并重。围绕各自目标路径，12个行业明确 了具体工作措施，共包括136条，重点聚焦大力培育新增长点、强化创新驱动引领、深化数智绿色转 型、优化产业发展生态四个方面。山东将加大政策支持，利用现有渠道聚焦关键环节，鼓励市县配套， 并紧盯重点区域与企业，及时解决突出问题。 党的二十届四中全会提出加快建设航天强国，山东也已明确加力培育壮大航天产业。《政策清单》结合 山东优势，给出两条针对性措施：一是对商业航天火箭企业或卫星企业依托海上发射平台实施的发射项 目，按照不超过购买"发射险""三者险"两项保费总额的35%给予奖补，每个项目最高奖补300万元；二 是面向商业航天领域培育遴选一批具备核心技 ...

Group 1 - Fiji's economic performance for 2025 is described as "robust," with GDP growth expected to slow to approximately 3% due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and a lack of significant investments [1] - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 3.5%, down from 9.4% in 2023 and 17.7% in 2022, indicating a return to pre-pandemic average growth rates [1] - New business investments are disappointing, with private sector construction rising but still 24% lower than recent peaks, highlighting slow project initiation despite available private investment channels [1] Group 2 - Fiji's government faces challenges in driving large-scale capital projects due to limited fiscal budget, necessitating stronger commercial investments to improve financial conditions [2] - Increased demand for space has led to renewed interest in hotels, office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses, and factories, positioning Fiji as an important regional distribution hub [2] - Private consumption spending may face resistance in 2026, as remittances that previously boosted consumer demand are reversing or have exhausted their impact [2] Group 3 - Agriculture plays a significant role in economic development, contributing to private consumption and supporting various sectors such as retail, telecommunications, and transportation [3] - Increased agricultural exports and potential price rises can enhance income and purchasing power, reducing reliance on tourism and remittances for economic growth [3] - A more resilient and diversified economic foundation is anticipated for Fiji as agricultural income rises [3]

Economic Growth - Serbia's GDP is projected to grow at a real rate of 2% in 2025 [1] - Most service and industrial activities have shown growth, with retail growing by 4.2%, transportation by 4.7%, and the restaurant sector by 1.5% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial production value increased by 1.0%, with mining up by 4.4% and manufacturing by 1.2% [1] - The construction sector experienced a decline of 8.4% [1] - The energy sector faced a decrease of 2% due to drought affecting hydroelectric reserves [1] - Agriculture saw a slight decline of 0.3% due to adverse weather conditions [1] Inflation and Labor Market - The average inflation rate for 2025 is expected to be 3.8%, with December's inflation rate at 2.8%, aligning with the central bank's target of 3%±1.5% [1] - The labor market remains strong, with nominal wages increasing by 11.2% and real wages by 7.1% [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in the third quarter [1] Trade Performance - Despite weak external demand, Serbia's exports are estimated to grow by 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the automotive sector [1] - Imports are projected to rise by 7.3%, attributed to ongoing imports of raw materials and equipment, as well as increased consumer goods imports due to rising disposable incomes [1]

Core Viewpoint - High-quality development is essential for advancing Chinese-style modernization and is a key requirement for the overall construction of socialism in China [1][8]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has laid a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, which requires a strategic arrangement over three five-year plans [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for solidifying the foundation and fully exerting efforts towards achieving modernization, focusing on resolving deep-seated contradictions that hinder high-quality development [2][3]. - Economic growth must maintain an appropriate speed, with a target of an average annual GDP growth of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th Five-Year Plans" to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000 by 2035 [3][6]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Industrial Development - Manufacturing is a vital foundation for modernization, with China's manufacturing value added exceeding 30 trillion yuan annually, maintaining the world's largest scale for 15 consecutive years [6][9]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system, optimizing traditional industries, and fostering emerging industries, particularly in advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - Accelerating high-level technological self-reliance is crucial for high-quality development, with significant increases in R&D funding and achievements in key technologies [10][12]. - The focus is on original innovation and breakthroughs in critical core technologies, with an emphasis on integrating technology and industry to enhance innovation capabilities [10][12]. Group 4: Domestic Market and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, with initiatives to boost consumption and effective investment [12][13]. - The plan includes removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption, optimizing income distribution, and enhancing consumer capacity to stimulate economic growth [12][14]. Group 5: Reform and Opening Up - Comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up is essential for high-quality development, focusing on overcoming institutional barriers and enhancing market vitality [13][14]. - The strategy includes promoting the complementary advantages of various ownership economies and optimizing the layout of state-owned enterprises [13]. Group 6: Improving People's Quality of Life - Enhancing the quality of life is a fundamental aspect of high-quality development, with policies aimed at improving employment, income distribution, and social security systems [14][15]. - The goal is to achieve common prosperity through sustainable economic growth, ensuring that public services in education, healthcare, and housing meet the needs of the population [15].

Core Viewpoint - The first policy package of 2026, consisting of 28 measures, aims to support quality enterprise development and project construction, with 20 measures focused on rewards and subsidies to stimulate market vitality [1] Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The policy list includes five areas with 28 measures, emphasizing the integration of supply to stabilize the economy and enhance service industry support [1] - A total of 500 million yuan is allocated to support new and "quasi-standard" enterprises, with additional funds for modern service projects, particularly in high-end productive services [2] - The government will provide 1 billion yuan to support key projects in marine services and cultural tourism, including discounts for certain tourist attractions [2] Group 2: Industrial and Investment Support - The policy emphasizes "one industry, one policy" to support 12 key industries, including steel and chemicals, and aims to stabilize the construction industry through increased green building material procurement [3] - A total of 5 million yuan is allocated for fixed asset investment assessment rewards, with additional incentives for provincial enterprises in emerging industries [3] - The policy aims to optimize land and carbon emission indicators to ensure the construction of key projects [3] Group 3: International Market Development - The province will provide funding support for enterprises participating in key exhibitions and developing cross-border e-commerce, with a focus on traditional and high-value industries [5] - The "Ten Thousand Enterprises Going Global" initiative will organize over 500 overseas exhibition activities, involving more than 10,000 enterprises [5] - The policy aims to foster the integration of cross-border e-commerce with industrial clusters, supporting around 1,000 enterprises in various aspects of international marketing [5] Group 4: Implementation and Accessibility - The effectiveness of the policy package relies on its implementation, with plans to develop supporting measures and streamline the application process for enterprises [6] - The "Ru Hui Tong" policy platform will be utilized to enhance the accessibility of policy benefits, ensuring that enterprises can quickly access and enjoy the advantages of the new policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a general decline in various industrial sectors, including power generation, steel production, real estate sales, and consumer goods, indicating a weakening economic environment as of December 2023. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation from coal-fired plants has decreased by 8.5% year-on-year as of December 25, compared to a decline of 7.2% in November, reflecting weak demand during the off-peak season and the impact of a warm winter [1][7] - Industrial operating rates are also showing seasonal weakness, with most sectors, except for downstream automotive tire production, reporting lower year-on-year operating rates [1][7] Group 2: Steel Production - Key steel mills reported a daily average crude steel output decrease of 2.0% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year as of the third week of December [9] - By the fourth week of December, rebar production fell by 10.7% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year, while hot-rolled coil production decreased by 4.6% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - There has been a marginal improvement in the funding availability rate for construction sites, with a 0.15 percentage point increase as of December 23 [11] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt has turned positive month-on-month, increasing by 0.83 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities from December 1 to 30 [15] - Retail sales of passenger cars have also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 17% from December 1 to 28, while wholesale sales fell by 19% [16] Group 5: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - Sales of home appliances remain in negative growth territory, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declining by 48% to 29% year-on-year [17][18] - The production of home appliances is expected to turn positive in January 2024, although there may be disruptions due to the Spring Festival [17][20] Group 6: Port Activity and Trade - Port container throughput remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from December 1 to 28, although the growth rate has slowed compared to November [20] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. has seen a reduced year-on-year decline, indicating some stabilization in trade activities [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around "structural transformation and confidence restoration," with a focus on technology investments and external demand recovery [3][4] - The report emphasizes a "systematic slow bull" market phase, suggesting a gradual upward trend in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between the high point of February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of 5178-2440 [9] - Investment strategies include focusing on four main lines: consumer services, sectors with growth potential like automotive and pharmaceuticals, traditional industries, and dividend-paying stocks such as banks and transportation [9] Group 2 - Policy risks are highlighted, particularly the impact of new public fund regulations on asset allocation, which may lead to a reallocation of equity fund performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [10][12] - Geopolitical risks are identified, with potential impacts from U.S. actions in Venezuela and Japan's political stance affecting market sentiment and inflation expectations [13][14] - Other risks include the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, all of which could influence market dynamics in the second half of 2026 [15][17][20]

Overall Requirements - The core objective is to enhance housing quality to meet the high-quality living needs of the public, with a focus on improving housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels by 2030 [2][8] - The initiative aims to create a robust policy, standard, technical, and industrial system to support housing quality improvement [2] Key Tasks - **Improvement of Housing Construction Standards**: Strict adherence to mandatory construction standards and timely updates to housing design standards to enhance overall housing quality [3] - **Enhancement of Architectural Design**: Focus on optimizing residential layouts and improving living conditions through refined design practices [3] - **Promotion of Quality Materials**: Encourage the use of high-quality, energy-efficient, and environmentally friendly building materials, with a strong emphasis on quality control [4] - **Development of New Construction Methods**: Integration of advanced manufacturing and information technologies to promote smart and green construction practices [4] - **Improvement of Operation and Maintenance Services**: Establish a long-term safety management mechanism for housing and enhance property service quality [5][6] - **Renovation of Existing Housing**: Promote the renovation of old residential areas and improve community facilities to enhance living quality [6] - **Strengthening Technological Empowerment**: Focus on research and development of key technologies to improve housing quality and promote smart home solutions [7] - **Enhancement of Industrial Support**: Encourage real estate and construction companies to transition into integrated service providers for quality housing [8] Implementation Strengthening - Local housing and urban-rural development departments are tasked with implementing these guidelines effectively, ensuring alignment with urban development and housing market needs [8]