Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, signaling a significant shift in federal housing policy aimed at reducing corporate influence in the residential market [1][3]. Market Reaction - Real estate-related stocks experienced a sharp decline, with Invitation Homes, Inc. (NYSE:INVH) dropping 6% and Blackstone, Inc. (NYSE:BX) also falling nearly 6% due to concerns over potential forced liquidations and the impact on real estate returns [5]. - Tech-driven real estate companies like Opendoor Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) faced uncertainty, while homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN), and KB Home (NYSE:KBH) also saw declines [6]. Policy Implications - The administration's move specifically targets firms that have accumulated large portfolios of homes, often outbidding individual buyers, indicating a shift away from corporate landlords in the housing supply [4]. - Trump plans to discuss additional housing and affordability proposals at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos, suggesting ongoing changes in housing policy [7].

Core Viewpoint - Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated has appointed Daniel Gabbay as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 12, 2026, succeeding Austen Helfrich [1][3]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Daniel Gabbay has nearly 20 years of experience in investment banking, most recently serving as a Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets, focusing on the healthcare REIT sector [2]. - Gabbay has a strong track record, having advised on significant transactions, including a $3 billion merger for Sonida Senior Living and a $5 billion merger for Healthpeak Properties [2]. - Peter Scott, President and CEO, expressed confidence in Gabbay's leadership and expertise, highlighting his strategic insight and experience in the sector [3]. Group 2: Transition of CFO Role - Austen Helfrich, who has been CFO since October 2024, will be leaving to pursue new business opportunities [3]. - Peter Scott acknowledged Helfrich's contributions to the company since joining in 2019, thanking him for his financial leadership during a critical period [4]. Group 3: Company Overview - Healthcare Realty Trust is the largest pure-play owner, operator, and developer of medical outpatient buildings in the United States [5]. - The company has maintained its previously issued 2025 Normalized FFO guidance, which was increased in the third quarter 2025 financial results [5].

Group 1 - CoStar Group plans to reduce its net investment in Homes.com by at least $100 million annually until 2030 [1]

Core Insights - SL Green (SLG) has entered into a joint venture with Rockpoint, selling a 49% stake in 100 Park Avenue at a gross asset valuation of $425 million [1][8] Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The property involved is a 36-story office tower in Midtown Manhattan, spanning 905,000 square feet, located near Grand Central Terminal and featuring amenities such as a golf simulator and personal training studio [2] - The partnership with Rockpoint allows SL Green to reduce its equity exposure while maintaining operational control and enhancing balance sheet flexibility, enabling reinvestment in value-accretive investments [3][8] Group 2: Strategic Focus - SL Green has adopted an opportunistic investment policy to improve its portfolio quality, focusing on retaining premium and high-growth assets in Manhattan [4] - The collaboration with Rockpoint is expected to support leasing momentum and repositioning efforts, potentially increasing the valuation of the Midtown asset [5][8] Group 3: Market Performance - Over the past month, SL Green's shares have increased by 17.1%, contrasting with a 2.1% decline in the broader industry [5]

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is showing unexpected strength, with both the second-hand and rental markets remaining active as of the end of 2025 [1][4][5] Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - A significant increase in second-hand housing transactions was noted, with over 23,000 units sold in December 2025, marking the third highest point of the year [6] - The total number of second-hand homes sold in Shanghai for 2025 reached 254,218 units, with monthly sales consistently above 18,000 units, except for February [6] - The price adjustments have made entry-level homes more accessible, with many small units priced below 2 million yuan, reducing the financial burden for buyers [6] Group 2: Rental Market - The rental market remains robust, with landlords experiencing quick turnover in tenants, as evidenced by a property that was rented out immediately after the previous tenant vacated [5] - Rental prices have increased, with one landlord reporting a rise from 1,900 yuan to 2,000 yuan per month for a property that has consistently been rented out [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The beginning of 2026 shows continued strong performance in the second-hand housing market, with Shanghai leading in transaction volumes compared to other major cities [8] - Analysts suggest that while the market is performing better than in previous years, it has not yet reached a critical point where prices will begin to rise significantly [10]

Market Overview - The Shanghai real estate market is showing unexpected strength, with both the second-hand and rental markets remaining active as of the end of December 2025 [1][5] - The new housing market in Shanghai also performed positively, with a reported transaction area of 467,000 square meters in December 2025, representing a month-on-month increase of 45.9% [4] Second-hand Housing Market - In December 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes (including commercial properties) in Shanghai exceeded 23,000 units, marking the third highest point of the year, following the peak seasons of March and April [6] - Throughout 2025, a total of 254,218 second-hand homes were sold in Shanghai, with monthly transactions consistently above 18,000 units, except for February due to the Spring Festival [6] - The entry threshold for purchasing has decreased significantly, with many older properties now priced around 2 million yuan, making it more accessible for first-time buyers [6] Rental Market - The rental market remains robust, with landlords experiencing quick turnover in rental agreements. For instance, a landlord reported that a new tenant was secured on the same day the previous contract expired, with a rent increase from 1,900 yuan to 2,000 yuan per month [5] - The rental income has steadily increased over time, indicating a strong demand for rental properties [5] Future Outlook - As of early 2026, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume is leading compared to other cities, with 839 units signed during the holiday period [8] - Analysts suggest that while the current market performance is better than the previous two years, the transaction volume has not yet reached a critical point that would trigger a price rebound [10]

Company Overview - Walker & Dunlop has been operational since 1937, establishing itself as a significant player in the real estate industry with a market cap of $2 billion and a total transaction volume of $40 billion last year [2] - The company specializes in commercial real estate capital provision, with a diverse portfolio that includes multifamily, industrial, office, retail, and hospitality properties [3] Recent Performance - In the last reported period, 3Q25, Walker & Dunlop's quarterly revenue reached $337.7 million, reflecting a 15.5% increase year-over-year and exceeding expectations by $16.2 million [9] - The company reported a year-to-date total transaction volume of $36.5 billion, marking a 38% year-over-year increase [9] Market Challenges - Walker & Dunlop's shares have declined by 27% over the last three months due to concerns over potential fraudulent loan activities originating during the COVID pandemic [1] - Management has indicated that these issues are not unique to Walker & Dunlop, and underwriting practices have been tightened since the pandemic [1] Analyst Insights - Jefferies analyst Matthew Hurwit notes that Walker & Dunlop has historically maintained positive returns even in challenging rate environments, supported by its fee-based servicing and advisory franchises [10] - Hurwit maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $75, suggesting a potential one-year gain of 23% from the current share price of $58.72 [11] Industry Trends - The Federal Reserve has shifted to an easing mode, implementing a series of interest rate cuts, which may positively impact mortgage demand and originator earnings power [5][8] - Fannie Mae forecasts a 40 basis point decline in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage by the end of 2026, potentially driving origination volumes to $2.3 trillion in 2026 and $2.5 trillion in 2027 [5]

Summary of Hong Kong Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hong Kong property market is upgraded to an "Attractive" industry view, with expectations for positive year-on-year (YoY) growth across residential prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][10][14]. Key Insights Residential Market - **Price Growth**: HK residential prices are projected to rise by 10% in 2026, following a 5% increase in 2025. This growth is attributed to the removal of additional stamp duty, increased immigration, and a strong stock market [4][10][42]. - **Population Growth**: Immigration from mainland China is expected to double to 140,000 per annum post-COVID, contributing to positive population growth and housing demand [4][45]. - **Affordability Improvement**: Median household income is increasing, leading to improved affordability, which is expected to stimulate demand for home purchases [47][49]. Office Market - **Rent Recovery**: Central office rents are expected to increase by 3% in 2026, recovering from a 40% decline from peak levels. This is driven by a flight to quality and increased demand from asset management companies and hedge funds [5][10][14]. - **Vacancy Rates**: Despite high vacancy rates, there is a noted recovery in demand for quality office spaces [10]. Retail Market - **Sales Growth**: HK retail sales are anticipated to grow by 3% in 2026, supported by increased visitation from mainland tourists due to easier visa access [6][10]. - **Challenges**: Concerns remain regarding the rise of online retail and competition from cheaper products in Shenzhen, as well as the growing trend of tax-free shopping in mainland China [6][10]. Investment Themes - **Residential Upcycle**: Focus on companies benefiting from the residential market recovery [14][19]. - **Early-Stage Office Recovery**: Investment in firms with active capital recycling strategies [19]. - **Luxury Retail**: Preference for companies involved in luxury retail, particularly those benefiting from mainland tourism [19]. Stock Recommendations Overweight Ratings - **SHKP**: Key proxy for home price recovery with a price target of HK$120.00, representing a 24% upside [21]. - **Henderson**: Beneficiary of home price upturn with a price target of HK$36.00, also a 24% upside [21]. - **CKA**: Upgraded to Overweight due to active land banking and a strong cash position [17][21]. - **Swire Properties**: Upgraded to Overweight based on active capital recycling and improving office fundamentals [17][21]. Underweight Ratings - **NWD**: Ongoing liquidity concerns and cash flow pressures, with a price target of HK$6.50, indicating a 12% downside [25]. - **Wharf**: Challenging operating outlook with a price target of HK$21.00, suggesting a 5.9% downside [25]. - **Link REIT**: Downgraded to Equalweight due to slower-than-expected recovery in mass retail [17][25]. Market Dynamics - **NAV Discounts**: The discount to NAV for HK property stocks is expected to narrow from 50% to 30% if the upcycle continues, potentially driving stock prices up by 15-30% [26][27]. - **EPS Outlook**: While EPS may remain depressed due to lower margins from past projects, the focus will likely shift to NAV discounts in the stock market [26]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong property market is entering a recovery phase, with positive growth expected across residential, office, and retail sectors. Investment strategies should focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, particularly in residential and luxury retail segments.

Summary of Key Themes for 2026 Industry Overview - **Region**: Asia Pacific - **Focus Economies**: China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Australia Key Themes General Asia - Recovery expected to broaden out to non-tech exports [2][7] - Nominal GDP growth forecast to improve from 4.9% in 4Q25 to 5.8% in 4Q26 [8][36] China - Divergence between macroeconomic challenges (deflation) and positive microeconomic developments [2][38] - Expected easing of deflationary pressures through a recovery in non-tech exports and market share gains [38][55] - Policymakers are focusing on cutting excess capacity and boosting domestic consumption to address deflation [48][60] - Population growth has turned negative, impacting demand in the property sector [39][41] India - Anticipated as a surprise turnaround story for 2026 with expected nominal GDP growth returning to double digits [2][82] - Concerns over rupee weakness and corporate revenue growth are seen as overblown [84][93] - Expected improvements in consumption and export growth, aided by a potential US-India trade deal [94][95] - Policy easing, including income tax cuts and interest rate reductions, expected to support consumer spending [95][107] Japan - Cautious approach from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with moderate fiscal expansion expected to sustain nominal GDP growth [2][7] Korea - Broadening growth and continued reform renaissance anticipated [2][7] Indonesia - Capital expenditure (capex) cycle remains a drag on growth [2][7] Australia - Interest rates expected to end the year lower, not higher [2][7] Additional Insights - Non-tech exports recovery is crucial for Asia's economic momentum, driven by easing trade tensions and improving US domestic demand [18][25] - The expected recovery in non-tech exports will positively impact capex momentum, job creation, and wage growth [8][26][29] - The macroeconomic environment in Asia is expected to improve as disinflationary pressures ease, leading to stronger corporate revenue growth [36][93] Conclusion - The outlook for 2026 presents a mixed picture across Asia, with significant opportunities in India and challenges in China. The overall recovery is expected to broaden beyond the tech sector, supported by policy measures and improving economic conditions.

Vi e w p o i n t | 05 Jan 2026 10:38:45 ET │ 13 pages China Property Qiushi Journal Commentary on the Sector: Positive but Not Overread CITI'S TAKE Commentary from Qiushi Journal (official media under the CPC Central Committee) (2-Jan-2026) mentioned: [1] property exhibits notable characteristics of financial assets with wide-ranging interconnections, thus enhancing expectation mgmt is critical; [2] property is a pillar industry ('24: 13% of GDP incl. construction; 70m employment) & major source of resident ...