Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 关于 25 年下半年转债策略的三点思考 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低 利率时代系列（六）》 2025-07-03 《利柏转债：工业模块化制造龙头》 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0630－0704）海外避险情绪整体回落，美债跌美股涨，其中科技 股由于盈利预期改善领涨，外围以伊冲突止战、美越贸易协议达成，越 南全方面对美国开放市场，存在一定示范效应，市场信心得到提振；同 时 6 月非农数据虽然不及预期，但市场增加年内联储降息押注， fedwatch 显示目前 7 月降息概率升至 27.4%，9 月降息概率高达 78%。 美债收益率整体仍在寻找趋势，继上上周波段下探后，上周受避险情绪 整体回落影响，转而上行，我们仍认为美债仍存在较强配置吸引力，期 限上 ...

Market Overview - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 23.655 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 11.352 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks experiencing a net outflow of 6.758 billion yuan [1] Stock Performance - Forest Packaging had the highest limit-up order volume, reaching 545,800 hands, followed by Jin Yi Culture, Huayin Power, and Shaan Energy with limit-up orders of 314,500 hands, 235,800 hands, and 214,800 hands respectively [2] - In terms of limit-up order funds, ten stocks had orders exceeding 100 million yuan, with Forest Packaging, Jin An Guo Ji, Hopson, and Huayin Power leading with 495 million yuan, 150 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 144 million yuan respectively [2] Digital Currency Sector - The digital currency concept saw significant gains, with stablecoins, cross-border payments, and other fintech-related concepts rising on July 4 [3] - Companies like Desheng Technology are actively participating in digital currency projects, including the Beijing Minsheng Card, which integrates digital RMB [4] - Jingbeifang is involved in the system construction for digital currencies and is exploring stablecoin applications [4] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Companies such as Seli Medical and Rejing Bio are making strides in innovative drug development, with Seli Medical's new drug application being accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [5] - Rejing Bio is focusing on antibody and nucleic acid drugs through strategic investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [5] Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - Jin An Guo Ji reported a revenue of 168 million yuan from its PCB business in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 32.81% [6] - Aoshikang specializes in high-precision PCB development and production, targeting high-value products in AI servers, automotive electronics, and high-frequency communication devices [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 iPDF International Future Packaging Exhibition was held from July 3-5 at the Guangzhou Airport Expo Center, focusing on "international, professional, exploration, and future" as its core themes, showcasing the entire supply chain of cosmetic packaging [1] - The exhibition aims to promote deep communication and efficient cooperation among the upstream and downstream of the industry by displaying cutting-edge packaging technologies and innovations [3] - Major global packaging companies such as Amcor and Selig Group participated, showcasing the latest applications of new materials and technologies in the cosmetic packaging sector [3] Group 2 - Domestic companies like Mington Packaging have established partnerships with brands such as Aier Doctor and Longliqi, with foreign trade accounting for 30% of their business, exporting to countries like the USA, South Korea, and Japan [3] - Guangdong Nite Packaging's foam pump technology has broken foreign patent monopolies and has received global patent certifications, leading to collaborations with well-known brands like Unilever and Winona [5] - Guangdong Shengwei Glass Technology focuses on original design to differentiate itself in a competitive market, providing customized glass packaging solutions and collaborating with brands like Memfa and Pianzaihuang [5] Group 3 - Companies like Suzhou Taiyu and Zhejiang Youqian are focusing on the development of specialty materials, creating a complete ecological loop from raw materials to finished products [6] - The exhibition featured over 20 special events, including forums on new materials and processes, gathering experts from companies like Milliken and Procter & Gamble to discuss innovations in material performance and brand value transmission [8] - The second Beauty Cross-Border E-commerce Conference was held concurrently, focusing on emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Russia, providing a full-link solution for brands [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance fluctuations of Jihong Co., with a significant profit increase in 2025 followed by a substantial decline in 2024 due to various economic factors [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, Jihong Co. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 55% to 65%, reaching between 112 million to 119 million yuan, with a further increase in net profit growth to 68% to 79% after excluding non-recurring gains [1] - The growth in 2025 is attributed to the recovery of the consumer market, which has led to increased packaging demand from downstream clients, and the company's strategic partnerships with leading firms in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Jihong Co. experienced a decline in net profit by over 47% due to a challenging economic environment, inflation, and fluctuating exchange rates, which resulted in decreased consumer confidence and sales growth in the packaging sector [2] - The company is actively expanding its client base and diversifying its business to enhance revenue, shifting from traditional packaging to higher-margin products such as tobacco and personal care packaging [2] - Jihong Co. is also focusing on international expansion through cross-border e-commerce, utilizing AI algorithms for market analysis and advertising on platforms like Meta and TikTok to sell Chinese products abroad [3] Group 3 - The company has established a strategic partnership with BMJ Industries to accelerate its overseas expansion, planning to invest in packaging production bases and trade platforms in the Middle East [3] - The collaboration aims to produce and sell various packaging products, including tobacco packaging and environmentally friendly materials, targeting markets in the Middle East and Africa [3]

Industry Overview - The packaging industry in China has undergone rapid development, establishing significant production scale and becoming an essential part of the manufacturing sector [1] - The policy development of the packaging industry can be divided into three stages: initial growth before the 12th Five-Year Plan, a shift towards green packaging from 2010 to 2020, and a rapid development phase since 2021 focusing on sustainable packaging strategies and digital transformation [1] Market Share - In 2024, plastic and paper packaging combined will account for over half of the market share, with plastic packaging generating revenue of 562 billion yuan (27.19%) and paper packaging generating 547.6 billion yuan (26.50%) [3] Company Performance - Key players in the packaging industry include Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, Double Star New Materials, and others, with diverse business layouts covering regions such as North America, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia [5] - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Zhengchuan Co. are leading domestic glass packaging manufacturers, while companies like Dashing and Wanshun New Materials focus on paper packaging [5] Revenue Analysis - The revenue performance of major packaging companies in 2024 includes: - Jiamei Packaging: 3.2 billion yuan - Baosteel Packaging: 8.318 billion yuan - Wanshun New Materials: 657.9 million yuan - Dashing: 2.131 billion yuan [10][11] Product Categories - The packaging industry is categorized into various segments, including plastic, paper, metal, glass, and wood packaging, with representative companies in each category [9] - The industry chain is well-structured, with upstream raw material suppliers and midstream packaging manufacturers working closely together [9]

Core Insights - The Chinese packaging industry has a long development history and has formed a mature industrial chain, with a continuous push towards green and sustainable packaging from the "11th Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] - The government has issued multiple policies to support the packaging industry, emphasizing its importance in the national economy and its role in sustainable development [3][9] Policy Development Timeline - The packaging industry has seen a progressive focus on green packaging from the "11th Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with specific goals set for 2025 to establish a resource-circulating industrial system [1] - Key milestones include the promotion of green packaging materials and the establishment of a comprehensive green packaging standard system by the end of 2025 [9] National Policy Summary and Interpretation - The packaging industry is supported by national policies that encompass design, production, printing, raw material supply, and machinery manufacturing, reflecting its integral role in the economy [3][4] - Recent policies include the "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery" aimed at promoting green, reduced, and recyclable packaging, and the "Action Plan to Reduce Logistics Costs" focusing on green transformation [5][6] Specific Policy Highlights - The "Action Plan for Deepening the Green Transformation of Express Packaging" aims for a comprehensive green packaging standard system by the end of 2025, with specific targets for reducing excessive packaging and increasing the use of recyclable materials [9][10] - The "Notice on Further Strengthening the Governance of Excessive Packaging" emphasizes the need for innovation in packaging design and materials to reduce waste and promote sustainability [11][12] Local Government Policies - Various provinces have introduced policies focusing on green packaging and the reduction of excessive packaging, with specific measures to enhance governance and compliance [13][14] - For example, Zhejiang Province has implemented measures to strengthen the governance of excessive packaging, while Gansu Province has focused on developing packaging design capabilities [14][16] Industry Goals and Future Directions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines key actions for the green transformation of express packaging, with provinces setting specific targets for the adoption of recyclable packaging and the reduction of plastic waste [18][21] - The overall direction is towards a more sustainable packaging industry, with an emphasis on reducing material usage and enhancing recycling capabilities across the supply chain [12][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations is expected to improve sentiment in the export chain, with a focus on companies with global supply chain layouts [4][8]. - Xiaomi's launch of its first AI glasses has generated significant consumer interest, with sales exceeding 10,000 units within 12 hours, highlighting potential investment opportunities in related companies [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies in the home furnishing sector, particularly those poised to benefit from industry improvements and consumer demand recovery [6][8]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, with an index increase of 3.64% compared to a 1.95% rise in the CSI 300 index during the week ending June 27, 2025 [14]. - Sub-sectors such as packaging and home goods showed strong performance, with packaging printing up 5.97% and home goods up 3.36% [14]. Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in real estate construction and a potential recovery in demand for home furnishings, with companies like Oppein Home and Sophia expected to benefit [6][31]. - Retail sales of furniture showed a significant increase of 25.6% year-on-year in May, although exports declined by 7.8% [35][36]. Paper and Packaging - Prices for various paper products, including double glue paper and white cardboard, have seen a decline, with double glue paper priced at 5,125 CNY/ton [41][47]. - The report highlights the importance of companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International in the waste paper sector, which are expected to benefit from improved capacity and supply chain management [6][8]. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a strong performance in the consumer goods sector, particularly in personal care products, with companies like Kangnai Optical and Mingyue Lens recommended for investment [6][8]. - The introduction of new products, such as the natural cotton sanitary napkin by Nice Princess, reflects ongoing innovation in the consumer goods market [8]. New Tobacco Products - BAT Japan's launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to drive growth in the heated tobacco market, with a focus on companies like Smoore International that have strong partnerships and product offerings [6][8]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with a reported revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, despite a profit decline of 13.9% [6][23]. - Key brands such as Hailan Home and Bosideng are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within this sector [6][23].

Market Overview - On June 27, the A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.21% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.85% [2][3] - The total market turnover reached 1.01 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [4] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals, communications, electronics, and semiconductors, with significant gains in optical modules, GPUs, optical chips, and high-speed copper connections [4][5] - Conversely, the banking sector saw a notable decline, with 40 out of 42 bank stocks falling [15][17] Stock Highlights - Optical module, GPU, and optical chip stocks surged in the morning session, with notable individual stock performances such as Lian Te Technology and Yuan Jie Technology, which rose over 10% [11][12] - New Tonglian's stock exhibited extreme volatility, opening at a limit-up price and quickly dropping to a limit-down price, resulting in a decline of 8.71% by midday [20] Industry Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the trend in system-level products from leading computing companies suggests that system-level computing may become the next frontier for AI development, with domestic GPU companies likely to catch up with overseas products [13] - Minsheng Securities forecasts that the banking sector's revenue growth is expected to stabilize by 2025, with potential for valuation recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [18]