Group 1: Bond Market Activity - The turnover rate for government bonds with maturities under 3 years, between 5-15 years, and over 30 years has increased, while other maturities have seen a decline [1] - The turnover rate for policy bank bonds in the 10-15 year maturity range has risen, with other maturities experiencing slight decreases [1] - Local government bonds with maturities of 3-5 years, 5-7 years, and 10-15 years have also seen increased turnover rates, while other maturities have declined [1] Group 2: ETF Performance and Liquidity - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years (511020) has increased by 0.10%, with a latest price of 117.56 yuan, and has accumulated a 5.10% increase over the past year [1][3] - The trading volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 10.63 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [3] - The latest scale of the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 1.493 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.7616 million yuan recently [3] Group 3: Historical Performance Metrics - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a net value increase of 21.64% over the past 5 years, with a maximum monthly return of 2.58% since inception [3] - The ETF has a historical profitability rate of 100.00% over 3 years, with a monthly profitability probability of 72.66% [3] - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year is 2.15%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.59% [3] Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month is 0.017%, closely following the CSI 5-10 Year Government Bond Active Index [4] - The index samples bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, reflecting the overall performance of these active government bonds [4]

Market Trends - The world's top sovereign wealth fund was a major buyer of Colombian local bonds in June [1] - Colombia experienced two credit downgrades in June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "stock-bond seesaw" effect has led to the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, while bond market yields have generally risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Market Overview - During the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield increased by 2.2 basis points to 1.665% [1][2] - The yield curve has shown a tendency towards a bear flattening, with short-term yields rising more significantly than long-term yields [1] - The bond market experienced a net withdrawal of funds due to the central bank's operations, with a focus on upcoming government debt payments and tax periods [1] Bond Market Activity - A total of 70 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 690 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds worth 293.21 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week (July 14 to July 18) is expected to see the issuance of 69 bonds totaling 500.18 billion yuan, with local government bonds making up a significant portion [6] Yield Changes - The yield changes for various maturities from July 4 to July 11, 2025, include: - 1-year: +3.4 BP - 2-year: +4.61 BP - 3-year: +3.67 BP - 5-year: +3.63 BP - 10-year: +2.2 BP [2][3] International Market Influence - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.41%, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and supply pressures [7] - The recent tariff announcements by the U.S. government have reignited inflation expectations, which may impact global bond markets [9][10] Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the current commodity price increases are primarily driven by liquidity, with supply factors still in the early stages of recovery [16] - Citing the potential for a smoother issuance of local government bonds compared to last year, the firm anticipates that the central bank will continue to support the bond market in the short term [16] - Industrial Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market but acknowledges the need for patience due to increased market volatility and external disturbances [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown a mixed performance with a current price of 106.2 yuan and a year-to-date increase of 1.04% as of July 11, 2025 [1] Trading Activity - The company bond ETF recorded a turnover rate of 4.16% with a transaction volume of 922 million yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past month was 2.276 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.173 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The latest share count for the company bond ETF is 209 million shares, also a three-month high [1] - The net inflow of funds into the company bond ETF was 42.478 million yuan, with a total of 279 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [1] Market Sentiment - The bond market has been influenced by the strong performance of the stock market, although the actual capital flow indicates limited impact [3] - The credit bond market remains stable despite rising interest rates, reflecting strong market confidence in credit bonds [3] Performance Metrics - The company bond ETF has seen a net value increase of 13.98% over the past five years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 1.22%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being nine months and a maximum gain of 3.80% [3] - The annual profit percentage stands at 83.33%, with a monthly profit probability of 79.66% and a historical three-year holding profit probability of 100% [3] - Since inception, the company bond ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 1.97% [3] Risk and Recovery - The maximum drawdown for the company bond ETF this year was 0.50%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [3] - The recovery period after drawdown was 23 days [3] Fee Structure - The management fee for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the company bond ETF over the past two months was 0.010% [4] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index, which serves as a performance benchmark for medium to high-grade corporate bonds [4]

Group 1 - The focus is on real yields and the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP), with a consideration of inflation expectations among investors [1] - Pearl Gray is identified as a proprietary investment fund and independent market research firm that specializes in systematic analysis, particularly in Bonds, Preferreds, and REITs [1] - The primary sectors of interest for Pearl Gray are Financials and Real Estate, aiming to discover actionable total return ideas [1] Group 2 - The content provided does not constitute financial advice and is intended to foster discussion among subscribers [3] - There is a disclosure indicating that the author has no financial positions in the companies mentioned and is not receiving compensation for the article [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed weakness on July 11, with government bond futures mostly declining, while liquidity remained balanced but slightly contracted, indicating a mixed outlook for the market [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.05% at 120.610, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.02% to 108.830 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.975%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.665% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average bidding yields for 2-year and 3-year government bonds at 1.3582% and 1.3735%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6 and 3.12 [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 847 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 507 billion yuan for the day [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.333% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the convertible bond market is experiencing high valuations, leading investors to prefer reducing positions in convertible bonds while increasing exposure to equity indices [5]. - Guosheng Fixed Income highlighted the continued growth of bond ETFs, with expectations for further expansion in the sci-tech bond ETF market due to policy support [5].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant pullback on July 10, with all major government bond futures closing lower, indicating increased vulnerability due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates trending upwards as the month progresses [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.36% to 120.530, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.16% to 108.845 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.869%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.656% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, most U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.71 basis points to 3.764% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a mixed sentiment in the international bond markets [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.3908% for 185 days, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97, indicating strong demand [4] - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a bid yield of 1.4% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.22, reflecting investor interest [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, PPI was weaker, indicating a potential bottoming process for prices, but warns of demand-side weakening [6] - CITIC Securities highlights multiple factors affecting the bond market, including concerns over the sustainability of inflation improvements and external demand weakness [7] - Changjiang Fixed Income anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will continue to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.65%, with potential opportunities in the yield curve [7]

Group 1 - Ningbo issued 10-year general local bonds with a scale of 12.27065 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6900% with a marginal multiple of 2.37, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.73 [1] - Ningbo issued 7-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 3.34233 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6500% with a marginal multiple of 4.85, surpassing the expected multiple of 1.67 [1]

As stated in paragraph 6 in General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds, the Government Debt Management offered the equivalent of 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction 4. July, at the price of accepted bids. SeriesRIKS 29 0917ISINIS0000037711Additional issuance (nominal)0Total outstanding (nominal)74,650,000,000 ...

Group 1 - Guizhou issued 10-year special local bonds with a scale of 12.2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.72% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 10-year bonds was 1.91 times, with an expected multiple of 1.75 [1] - Guizhou also issued 30-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.04% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 30-year bonds was 8.33 times, with an expected multiple of 2.00 [1]