Core Viewpoint - Fujian Province has issued multiple special local bonds with varying maturities and interest rates, indicating a strong demand for financing infrastructure and development projects in the region [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Fujian issued a 15-year toll road special local bond with a scale of 34.0048 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0300%, achieving a marginal multiple of 39.06 times against an expected multiple of 1.92 [1] - A 5-year high-quality development special local bond was issued with a scale of 1.2000 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.5800%, resulting in a marginal multiple of 1.33 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.60 [1] - A 7-year high-quality development special local bond was issued with a scale of 12.6000 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6400%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.11 times, lower than the expected multiple of 1.67 [1] - A 10-year high-quality development special local bond was issued with a scale of 33.6996 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.8000%, resulting in a marginal multiple of 3.92 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.73 [1]

Group 1 - Dalian issued 7-year general local bonds with a scale of 4.90344 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6400%, and a marginal multiple of 1.18, with an expected multiple of 1.70 [1] - Dalian issued 20-year ordinary special local bonds with a scale of 366.93 million, an issuance rate of 2.0600%, and a marginal multiple of 1.22, with an expected multiple of 2.05 [1]

Group 1 - Inner Mongolia issued 15-year special local bonds with a scale of 15.075 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.08% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 15-year bonds was 1.15 times, with an expected multiple of 1.94 [1] - Inner Mongolia also issued 20-year special local bonds with a scale of 9.67 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.07% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 20-year bonds was 1.73 times, with an expected multiple of 2.03 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a potential strengthening trend in credit bonds as leverage levels may gradually recover due to low funding costs [1][7]. Market Performance - On May 7, the bond market showed weakness, with government bond futures closing down across the board. The 30-year main contract fell by 0.62%, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.19% [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7075%, and the 30-year government bond yield rose by 2.7 basis points to 1.89% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,955 billion yuan at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,353 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor rates for overnight and 7-day terms decreased by 4.5 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, indicating a continued easing of funding conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market may see increased volatility in May and June, with a higher probability of interest rates breaking lower [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates a gradual recovery in market leverage, with credit bonds likely to strengthen from the short end [7]. - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the importance of the trend in secondary market repurchase rates, predicting a narrowing of the yield curve as funding rates approach 1.4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, establishing a more inclusive financing system for technology enterprises, which has grown into a trillion-yuan market over four years [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Technology Innovation Bonds - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) initiated the pilot program for technology innovation bonds in 2021, becoming a pioneer in this area [2]. - As of now, the SSE has facilitated nearly 300 companies in issuing over 1 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 75% from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. - The SSE has expanded the range of issuers to include financial institutions, ensuring that at least 70% of the raised funds are directed towards technology sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Mechanism Innovations - The SSE has established a "green channel" for the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with a review time of no more than 15 working days for eligible technology companies, which has been further reduced to 10 days for those breaking key technologies [6][8]. - The SSE has simplified information disclosure requirements for qualified issuers, allowing for extended validity periods for financial reports and reduced documentation for high-quality technology firms [7][13]. Group 3: Market Participation and Future Outlook - The recent announcement has led to interest from various securities firms and investment institutions, with around 10 securities companies planning to issue over 16 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [10][12]. - The SSE aims to create a synergistic market ecosystem by promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds and encouraging investment institutions to increase their participation [14].

新华财经北京5月7日电美国国债收益率周二（5月6日）整体走低，美国财政部当天招标发行的10年期美 债需求从前期低位回升，部分修复了近期的市场抛售情绪。 截至6日尾盘，2年期美债收益率跌4.75个基点报3.7827%，3年期美债收益率跌5.32个基点报3.7556%，5 年期美债收益率跌4.19个基点报3.8957%，10年期美债收益率跌4.87个基点报4.2946%，30年期美债收益 率跌3.76个基点报4.797%。 美国财政部副部长迈克尔·福尔肯德认为，当天的10年期美债发行非常成功。他表示，"我们没有看到美 国国债市场出现任何问题，我们的拍卖继续表现强劲。美元一直是并将继续是世界储备货币。" 美国财政部6日发售420亿美元10年期国债，中标利率为4.342%，低于前次4月9日的4.435%；投标倍数 为2.60，低于前次的2.67，但高于最近六次拍卖的平均值2.59。衡量美国国内需求的直接竞标者的获配 比例为19.9%，衡量海外需求的间接竞标者获配比例为71.2%，一级交易商获配比例仅为8.9%，显示市 场需求强劲。 投标结果出炉后，10年期美债收益率收益率盘中跳水约2个基点。 财经金融博客Zerohe ...

【海外债市】 北美市场方面，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.86BP报3.8302%，3年期美债收益率涨 0.85BP报3.8088%，5年期美债收益率涨2.1BPs报3.9376%，10年期美债收益率涨3.5BPs报4.3433%，30年 期美债收益率涨4.67BPs报4.8336%。 亚洲市场方面，日债除超长端以外的品种收益率普遍回落，5年期和10年期日债收益率下行2.4BPs和 1.7BP，报0.816%和1.257%，30年期日债收益率上行5.5BPs至2.774%。 新华财经北京5月6日电（王菁）债市周二（5月6日）偏弱整理，仅超长端维持暖势，其他期限期现货震 荡回调，国债期货主力多数收跌，银行间现券收益率多数上行1BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼6820亿 元，资金利率月初全线回落。 机构认为，5月国债和专项债有望发行加速，政府债券净融资或在1.5-1.7 万亿。伴随供给加速放量，叠 加旺季过后机构配债力量可能边际减弱，供需结构或有所弱化，央行对冲配合财政的必要性上升。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.11%报120.970，10年期主力合约持平于109.045，5 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Markets Analyst UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK Real Rates — Backcast To The Future UK real rates, measured by inflation-indexed Gilt yields, are at or near decadal highs following a significant increase through 2021-2023. The UK was one of the earliest adopters of inflation-indexed bonds, and so already has a long timeseries of ex ante (traded) real rates, dating back to the early 1980s. We use this time series to backcast real yields, drawing on an approach by ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market" aims to enhance the rationality, scientific nature, fairness, and transparency of the valuation of securitized products, thereby increasing market participation in these products [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Valuation Guidelines - The guidelines address the need for fair, scientific, and stable valuation of various bond types, particularly securitized products, which have been increasingly significant in China's bond market [2][4]. - Securitized products are characterized by their complexity and lower liquidity, necessitating accurate cash flow predictions for proper valuation [2][6]. - The guidelines emphasize the importance of considering the credit status and type differences of underlying assets when setting valuation parameters [2][6]. Group 2: Transparency and Market Impact - Increased transparency in valuation will help users understand the valuation logic of institutions, allowing for better validation of results and enhancing overall valuation quality [3][4]. - Transparent valuation results can provide fair price references for secondary market transactions, reducing pricing discrepancies and improving market liquidity [3][5]. Group 3: Encouragement of Multiple Valuation Sources - The guidelines encourage users to select multiple valuation products for cross-validation, which helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single valuation source [3][5]. - The presence of multiple valuation institutions can enhance information dissemination in the market, leading to more efficient pricing and better investment decisions [4][5]. Group 4: Focus on Credit Risk - The core foundation of the credit bond valuation technical system is the dynamic assessment of credit risk, with rating agencies playing a crucial role in this process [6][7]. - The valuation of securitized products, especially subordinate securities, is significantly impacted by the credit risk of underlying assets, highlighting the need for accurate credit risk assessment [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that rating agencies can expand their role in the valuation field, leveraging their data reserves and credit risk analysis capabilities to provide diverse valuation references and mitigate financial market risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for over half a month, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating around 1.65% since early April, failing to break below 1.6% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty from tariff impacts and expectations for "rate cuts" have been the main drivers for the previous rapid rise in the bond market [4]. - The ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is likely the reason for the recent stability in the bond market [5]. - Bullish views on the bond market are supported by the demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions, strong expectations for monetary easing, and a potential slowdown in the recovery of the economic fundamentals [6]. - Bearish views stem from the possibility of the U.S. lifting tariff sanctions, a potential delay in monetary easing, and a recovery in economic fundamentals that exceeds expectations [7]. - Both bullish and bearish perspectives seem to address the same issues but differ in their outlooks and expectations [8]. Group 2: Uncertainty Factors - The bond market continues to face significant uncertainty due to variables such as tariff negotiations, growth stabilization policies, and the timing of monetary easing measures [9]. - Until the situation becomes clearer, the bond market is expected to remain volatile [10]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - From a long-term perspective, the bond market may still represent an important component of asset allocation despite short-term fluctuations [11]. - The Wind pure bond fund index has shown positive returns every year from 2007 to 2025, with a cumulative increase of 117.94% and an annualized return of 4.42% from 2007 to 2024, indicating stability compared to the stock market [12][15]. - As the domestic economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development, long-term bond yields may continue to decline, presenting ongoing allocation value in bond assets [16]. - However, it is important to note that after a prolonged upward trend, volatility in the bond market may increase, suggesting a need to lower expectations and adopt a "stability-first" approach in response to potential future fluctuations [16].