【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：节后还会延续修复吗？ 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 02 月 24 日 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴 志锋：银行 2025 年 4 季度经营数据： 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-23 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张 德礼：中国出口份额还有多大提升空 间？》2026-02-11 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕 品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌 时刻"》2026-02-09 今日预览 【固收】吕品：节后还会延续修复吗？ 在过去一个多月，债市意外的走出了修复的行情，10 年下破 1.8%，TL 也站上 112.8 关键阻力位。 回顾年初以来的债市行情，基本多数品种都较 1 月初高点下行了 10BP 以上，5 年、7 年国债收益 率下行 14bp、13bp，7 年、10 年二永更是下行 20BP 以上。 我们在一月下旬就提示本轮修复行情，并在二月初《避险资产不避险，债市风景独好？》中提示 本轮 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery over the past month, with various fixed-income products achieving positive returns, particularly those with embedded options, while the stock market remains volatile and weak [2][3][9]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, all types of fixed-income products have generated positive returns, with option-embedded bond funds leading at 0.74%, followed by medium to long-term bond funds at 0.37%, short bond funds at 0.20%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.15%, and cash management products at 0.10% [3][9]. - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to stock and commodity market volatility, as well as a more favorable liquidity environment [9][19]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a recovery, with interest rates declining, supported by factors such as increased investor demand for bonds during the holiday season and a more abundant liquidity environment [9][19]. - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below the critical level of 1.8%, but further downward movement is expected to be limited in the short term [9][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the bond market's recovery may be nearing its end, with potential upward pressure on interest rates due to various factors, including stock market performance and inflation expectations [22][28]. - The strategy for investors includes maintaining positions in short to medium-term pure bond products while waiting for better entry points for long-duration bonds as yields rise [34][35]. Group 4: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to remain stable, with limited risks of widening credit spreads, and short to medium-duration products are favored [23][34]. - Investors are advised to continue holding medium to short-duration products to capture coupon payments, while being cautious with long-duration credit bonds due to increased volatility [23][34]. Group 5: Regulatory Updates - On January 23, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, which aim to simplify compliance requirements and enhance transparency in the fixed-income market [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing structural repair, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below the critical level of 1.8%, attracting market attention [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a divergence in institutional views regarding the potential for further interest rate declines, with some institutions supporting the bond market due to a loose funding environment and ongoing insurance capital allocation [1] - Conversely, other institutions believe that yields below 1.8% may have already priced in some expectations of rate cuts, indicating that future trends will depend on policy implementation and further validation of the economic fundamentals [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The bond market is likely to remain in a phase of both repair and contention in the short term, influenced by multiple variables [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% for the first time since November 2025, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bonds as a safer investment amid high volatility in other asset classes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the 10-year government bond yield reached a low of 1.793%, marking a cumulative decline of 10 basis points since January [1][2]. - The yield on the 10-year active bond "25附息国债16" fell to 1.8%, while the 30-year bond yield showed a slight increase, indicating a narrowing of the yield spread between different maturities [2]. - The bond futures market also saw gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.14% to 112.730 yuan [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to weak fundamentals and a supportive liquidity environment, with expectations of monetary easing gaining traction [3][6]. - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% in January, reinforcing market expectations for additional policy measures [3]. - Major state-owned banks have been net buyers of 10-year government bonds, with a cumulative net purchase of 993 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional interest [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing and a stable funding environment [5][6]. - Upcoming economic indicators, particularly inflation data, are expected to influence market dynamics, with concerns about supply and valuation pressures in the bond market [8].

Market Overview - From late January to early February, significant global events disrupted asset pricing, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices, and a notable decline of 2.48% in the Shanghai Composite Index on February 2[20] - The domestic bond market saw a window for growth, with the yield on 30-year government bonds decreasing by 4 basis points (bp) to 2.22%[20] Bond Market Characteristics - The current bond market is characterized by three main features: a decline in risk appetite, ample liquidity, and favorable supply-demand dynamics[2] - Risk appetite has weakened, with the performance of risk assets declining compared to mid-December to mid-January, leading to a shift of funds back to fixed income[2] - Despite an increase in bond supply in February, demand remains strong, with government bonds seeing good subscription rates and a high coverage ratio of over 12 times for some issuances[2] Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a key concern, with January's Producer Price Index (PPI) expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%, driven by rising commodity prices[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to rebound significantly in February due to the effects of the Spring Festival, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth expected to rise[3] Yield Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield is currently stable at around 1.80%, indicating resistance to a systemic decline in interest rates[20] - The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has compressed from 48bp to 44bp, driven by buying interest from funds and smaller banks[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on January 26, 2026 [1] - The analyst is Liang Weichao with SAC registration number S1340523070001 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The high point of bond yields has appeared, and the repair is continuing. The timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is crucial for the bond market's repair progress during the subsequent stock market's spring rally [3] - The probability of monetary easing is higher in the first half of the year. The time window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be around the Two Sessions in March, before which the yield curve will price in the expectations [3][13] - From the perspective of funds, overnight rates are around the policy rate, and there is no significant fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The short - term central rate may decline before the Spring Festival when cross - festival funds are not tight [3][13] - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year and 30 - year yields have allocation value, but the 30 - year yield has higher volatility and greater trading difficulty [4][18] - From the "stock - bond relationship" perspective, the yield repair is almost in place. If interest rate cuts occur in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds, and yields may decline slightly; otherwise, the bond market repair is almost complete [4][20] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends Configuration and Trading Sentiment - The return of the allocation disk and the repair of the trading disk have warmed the bond market sentiment. Large - scale banks have increased their allocation demand and bought 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds in the secondary market, and the credit spread of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has declined, indicating the repair of the product household's liability side [10] Impact of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - The central bank has implemented interest rate cuts for structural monetary policy tools, indicating that short - term policy rate cuts are unlikely in the short term, but there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year, and the bond yield curve may shift downward as a whole or show a slight bullish steepening [12] Fund Situation - Overnight funds are around the policy rate, and the 7 - day fund price remains stable. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to smooth out the seasonal fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and the current state of funds is still relatively stable and loose [13] Short - term Yield - The 1 - year treasury bond yield has declined and is below 1.3%. Short - term varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit are also following the downward trend. However, if the R007 remains above 1.5% before the Spring Festival, the downward space for NCD rates is limited [15][16] Long - term Yield - The high point of long - term yields has appeared, and the central downward space is smaller than that of short - term yields. The 10 - year yield has limited short - term downward odds but has allocation value, while the 30 - year yield also has allocation value but high trading difficulty [4][18] Stock - Bond Relationship - The 2026 stock market's spring rally is likely to be characterized by "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will have a short - term impact on the bond market rather than a trend - based negative impact. Currently, the 10 - year treasury bond has recovered its decline since the beginning of the year, and the 30 - year treasury bond is still 3 BP away from full recovery [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the volume of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, leading to a more relaxed liquidity environment in the latter half of the week, which has positively impacted the bond market and caused a downward shift in the yield curve [1][9]. Market Overview - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 1.3 basis points to 1.83%, reversing the gains made at the beginning of the year [1]. - The net financing of local bonds is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan this week, highlighting the need to focus on institutional absorption capacity and the impact of the end-of-month liquidity and equity market on the bond market [1]. Bond Market Performance - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from January 16 to January 23, with the 1-year yield increasing by 3.95 basis points and the 30-year yield decreasing by 5.75 basis points [2][3]. - The bond futures market saw a general increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 1.02% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.12% [4]. Upcoming Issuance - For the week of January 26 to January 30, a total of 73 bonds are planned to be issued, amounting to 474.28 billion yuan, with no government bonds scheduled for issuance [5]. International Market Insights - The U.S. bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a five-month high of 4.31% before stabilizing at 4.23% by the end of the week [6][7]. - Japanese government bonds saw significant fluctuations, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.38% before retreating, driven by concerns over fiscal deterioration and expectations of interest rate hikes [8]. Institutional Perspectives - West Securities noted that the pressure from local bond supply is increasing, with a total issuance of 4.393 billion yuan expected next week, which may elevate the pressure on banks to absorb these bonds [15]. - Huatai Securities indicated that the current yield on the 10-year government bond is approaching a lower boundary of the expected range, suggesting that without significant catalysts, yields may face resistance around the 1.8% level [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - At the end of 2025, the bond market was relatively weak, with banks showing overall low allocation to interest rate bonds[7] - In early 2026, as banks' annual KPIs were determined, the bond market began to recover, with significant buying power from banks in the first week of January[7] - The buying power of banks expanded further in mid-January, but participation remained structural and selective rather than broad-based[7] Group 2: Large Banks' Behavior - Large banks increased their allocation to government bonds, particularly focusing on 7-10Y and 1-3Y maturities, while also starting to buy 20-30Y bonds[8] - The buying of policy financial bonds by large banks intensified, mainly in the 1-3Y and 7-10Y categories[8] - Large banks showed a notable increase in selling local government bonds, especially in the ultra-long end[8] Group 3: Small and Medium Banks' Behavior - Small and medium-sized banks exhibited a "front-loading and back-selling" pattern in their trading behavior, with initial strong buying followed by a shift to net selling[15] - In the first week of January, small banks showed concentrated buying in medium to long-term bonds, but this shifted to net selling in the following weeks[15] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The funding market saw a shift with net borrowing turning negative for major borrowing entities, indicating a tightening of liquidity[6] - The primary market experienced an expansion in the price gap between primary and secondary markets for policy financial bonds[6] - In the secondary market, the borrowing volume of active bonds continued to rise, with large banks being the main buyers of 1-3Y and 7-10Y bonds[6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that at the end of 2025, the bond market was relatively weak, with banks showing overall limited allocation to interest rate bonds across various maturities. However, entering 2026, as banks' annual KPIs were gradually determined, the volatility of deposit replacement on the liability side stabilized, leading to a gradual recovery in interest rate bonds. In the first week of the year, bank buying power significantly increased, covering various maturities, and this buying power further expanded in the middle of the month. Nevertheless, bank participation remained more structural and selective rather than a comprehensive increase [7][8][15] Group 2 - Large banks have shown an expanding allocation to government bonds, with a notable increase in purchases of policy financial bonds starting in the third week of January. The buying focus has been on 1-3Y and 7-10Y maturities, while there has been a significant increase in selling of ultra-long local bonds [8][9][10] - The allocation behavior of large banks has evolved weekly, with a strong buying momentum in the first week primarily focused on various maturities of government bonds. In the second week, the buying continued for medium to long-term government bonds, but the marginal increase in ultra-long-term allocations slowed down. By the third week, large banks began to significantly increase their buying of 1-3Y and 20-30Y government bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in demand for both short and ultra-long maturities [8][9][10] Group 3 - Small and medium-sized banks exhibited a "front-loading and back-selling" pattern in their trading behavior for secondary interest rate bonds. In the first week of the month, these banks concentrated their buying on medium to long-term bonds, but in the last two weeks, they shifted to net selling, indicating a phase-out of their allocation to medium to long-term bonds. For local bonds, there was strong buying activity in the first week, but the buying intensity has cooled in the past week, with marginal demand weakening and trading pace slowing down [15][16][17] Group 4 - In the funding market, there has been an expansion in borrowing while lending has contracted, leading to an increase in leverage ratios across institutions. The overnight trading proportion has risen, with interbank bond market leverage ratios showing slight declines overall, while banks and insurance companies have seen slight increases in their leverage ratios [7][8] Group 5 - In the primary market, the spread between the primary and secondary prices of policy financial bonds has widened. In the past week, two 10Y National Development Bonds and two 10Y Agricultural Development Bonds were issued, with both types seeing an increase in overall multiples, although the marginal multiples have decreased [7][8] Group 6 - In the secondary market, the borrowing volume of active bonds has continued to rise. The trading activity in the cash bond market has warmed up, with differentiated trading behaviors observed among various types of institutions. Large banks have significantly bought 1-3Y and 7-10Y maturities while showing net selling in other short to medium-term bonds and net buying in ultra-long maturities. Conversely, small and medium-sized banks have shown net selling across various maturities, particularly in the 7-10Y segment [7][8][9]