新华财经北京10月9日电（王菁）国庆长假过后首个交易日（10月9日），债市期现券同步回暖，午后长 端品种表现更趋强势，国债期货主力全线收涨、银行间现券收益率下行1-2BPs；公开市场单日净回笼 14513亿元，月初资金利率普遍显著回落。 机构认为，10月流动性缺口可能季节性走阔，央行节前公告买断式逆回购释放了一定宽松信号，当前收 益率曲线较为平坦，后续或"先牛陡后牛平"的概率更大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.46%报114.530，10年期主力合约涨0.15%报108.045，5年 期主力合约涨0.07%报105.730，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.394。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP报2.117%，10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.65BP报1.956%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行1BP报 1.773%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.65%，报488.64点。万得可转债等权指数上涨0.70%，报238.03点。豪美转债、 微导转债、精达转债、雪榕转债、科达转债涨幅居前，分别涨13. ...

新华财经北京9月26日电投资者周五（26日）密切关注一项关键通胀指标的公布，并评估美国经济的状况，美债当天小幅向上波动，收 益率下行。 周五盘前，美债收益率下行为主，截至新华财经20:30发稿时，2年期美债收益率跌1.4BP至3.649%，10年期美债收益率跌1BP至4.164%， 30年期美债收益率跌1.1BP至4.742%。 欧洲市场方面，欧债收益率周五几乎全线下行，其中10年期德债收益率跌2.8BPs至2.744%，10年期意债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.612%，10年 期法债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.572%。 其它市场方面，英债走势与欧债类似，收益率全线下行，其中2年期英债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.994%，10年期英债收益率跌3.3BP至 4.731%，30年期英债收益率跌3.5BPs至5.536%。 投资者们正期待着8月份个人消费支出指数的公布，该指数将于美国东部时间上午8:30发布，它被视为美联储青睐的通胀指标。经济学家 们预计该数据将显示通胀有所上升。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，每周首次申请失业救济人数低于预期，从23.2万人降至21.8万人，也低于道琼斯的预测值23.5万人。美 国第三 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 全球资产管理公司East Spring投资在周二发布的一份报告中表示，美联储在9月份议息会议期间的"鸽派转变"，应该会对未来几个月的利 率市场产生积极影响。 当地时间周二，投资者将关注几位联储官员的讲话。上午9点，美联储负责监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼发表讲话；亚特兰大联储总裁博斯 蒂克10点发表讲话；中午12:35，美联储现任主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。 据外媒周一报道，对于美联储下任主席人选，美国财政部长贝森特近日表示，将在下周完成与11位候选人中剩余10人的面谈，包括现任 美联储理事和地区联储总裁。预计下周开始缩小候选人名单，可能会有两到三份名单，最终向特朗普总统推荐一位候选人。他再次排除 了自己出任美联储主席的可能性，并表示将继续留任财政部长。 此外，投资者亦关注本周将公布的个人消费支出指数（PCE），美联储青睐的该指数应该能让人们对通胀压力和美国整体经济状况有所 了解。 经合组织（OECD）周二上调全球经济增长预测，预计今年全球经济增长3.2%，而6月份的预测为2.9%。对2026年的预期维持在2.9%不 变。该组织对美国经济增长预期也从6月份的1.6%上调至2025年的1.8%。与20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK has significantly increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, purchasing $41.3 billion in July 2025, surpassing China to become the second-largest foreign holder of US debt, raising its total to $899.3 billion [3][5]. Group 1: UK Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, the UK increased its US Treasury holdings by $41.3 billion, reaching a record high of $899.3 billion, exceeding China's holdings of $730.7 billion [3][5]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US debt, with a total of $1.15 trillion, while Canada reduced its holdings by $57.1 billion to $381.4 billion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Increased Purchases - The UK is betting on US Treasuries as a safe haven with high yields, especially after Brexit, where US Treasury yields over 4.5% have become attractive compared to UK bonds [5][6]. - The purchase is also seen as a move to strengthen the "special relationship" with the US, potentially to gain trade support from the Trump administration [6][7]. - Additionally, the UK is looking to transfer debt risk, as it faces £334 billion in maturing debt by 2025, signaling cooperation with the Federal Reserve to alleviate domestic financial pressures [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the UK may be forced to "lock in" its holdings due to potential declines in US Treasury yields following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [10]. - Long-term concerns include rising default risks on US debt, with the UK potentially becoming a "bag holder" if the US Treasury market collapses [10]. - Experts suggest that the UK is engaging in a "debt hedging game," but if US Treasuries fail, London could face significant financial repercussions [10][12].

Market Overview - The bond market showed stability in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, with all major government bond futures closing down [1] - The yield on interbank bonds generally rose by about 2 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan in the open market, indicating that liquidity conditions have not significantly improved [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.76% to 114.800, the 10-year down 0.21% to 107.835, the 5-year down 0.13% to 105.675, and the 2-year down 0.05% to 102.364 [2] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 2.15 basis points to 1.804% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.15 basis points to 4.101% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points to 1.636% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 3.543% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's auction results for two issues of government bonds showed a weighted average yield of 1.8321% for the 10-year bond and 2.1725% for the 30-year bond, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.32 and 3.34 respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354.3 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 5.3 basis points to 1.461% and the 14-day rate up 6.6 basis points to 1.647% [5] Institutional Insights - Long-term bond funds have not seen a significant reduction in duration despite market adjustments, with the median duration remaining around 2.5 years [6] - There is an expectation of continued government bond net financing decline, with fiscal spending intensity showing a downward trend [7] - Market expectations for the central bank to resume government bond purchases have increased, providing some support for interest rates [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week, and below the Dow Jones estimate of 240,000 [3] - The increase in jobless claims the previous week was attributed to a temporary spike in Texas, indicating no broader issues in the labor market [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the recent interest rate cut was a "risk management" decision, dampening expectations for long-term rate cuts [3] Group 2 - In Europe, bond yields rose, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 2.71% and the 10-year Italian bond yield rising by 4.2 basis points to 3.54% [4] - The European Central Bank is facing challenges in balancing economic growth prospects and inflation concerns, leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [4] - The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged at 4%, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate around 0.5%, with no significant impact anticipated from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [5] - Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 0.885% [7] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $204 billion in bonds, including $100 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields are mostly declining as investors digest strong retail sales data and anticipate a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1][2] - The U.S. retail sales in August showed a robust growth of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of strong performance, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 0.3% [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (BPs), with market expectations indicating a cumulative rate cut of 75 BPs by the end of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue two bonds totaling $98 billion, including $85 billion in 6-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [3] - In the European market, bond yields are generally rising, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 1 BP to 2.705% [3] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields are mostly declining, with the 20-year bond yield rising by 3.3 BPs to 2.678% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 16, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 1 basis point in the afternoon. The central bank conducted a net injection of 40 billion yuan in the open market, while funding rates continued to rise. Analysts believe that long-term bond yields may decline more smoothly in the latter half of Q4, with the potential for new lows in yields within the year. The timing for resuming government bond trading appears to be maturing based on current yield conditions and future government bond issuance plans [1][6][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract flat at 115.48, the 10-year main contract up 0.15% at 108, the 5-year main contract up 0.13% at 105.795, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.414 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined in the afternoon, with the 30-year government bond yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.08%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 1.9275%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1.6 basis points to 1.784% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell on September 15, with the 2-year yield down 2.30 basis points to 3.526%, the 3-year yield down 3.32 basis points to 3.494%, the 5-year yield down 3.3 basis points to 3.600%, the 10-year yield down 3.64 basis points to 4.034%, and the 30-year yield down 2.8 basis points to 4.653% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 1.601% [4]. Economic Indicators - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7%. The industrial output increased by 5.2%, also below the expected 5.7%. Fixed asset investment from January to August grew by 0.5%, below the expected 1.3% and previous 1.6%. The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Real estate investment from January to August totaled 60,309 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with new housing sales down 7.3% [7][8]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that August economic data continued to converge, with external demand stronger than internal demand. The bond market is expected to enter a target range, with financing demand weak and expectations for bond purchases increasing [9]. - CITIC Construction pointed out that while August economic data is stable, pressures remain. The bond market's response to fundamental factors is muted, and attention should be paid to the central bank's funding situation [9]. - Guosheng Fixed Income observed that economic data indicates a further slowdown in supply and demand, with short-term disturbances likely to cause bond market fluctuations [9].

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of recovery on September 11, with the main government bond futures rising in the afternoon and most closing higher, while interbank bond yields initially increased before declining [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates continuing to rise [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed mixed results: the 30-year main contract fell by 0.11% to 114.740, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.07% to 107.580 [2] - Interbank yields for major bonds fluctuated, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.8075% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 4.21 basis points to 4.047% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, while in the Eurozone, yields for 10-year bonds in France, Germany, and Italy also declined [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Export-Import Bank's 1-year and 3-year financial bonds had bid yields of 1.3556% and 1.7377%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.21 and 1.99 [4] - Jilin Province's local bonds saw bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 21 times, indicating strong demand [4] Funding Conditions - The PBOC announced a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 5.6 basis points to 1.369% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the recent bond market adjustment has fundamental backing, but institutional behavior has a more direct impact, suggesting potential opportunities for trading [6] - Long-term forecasts indicate that the bond market may continue to experience weak fluctuations, with expectations of a return to a 1.6% yield for the 10-year government bond by year-end [6]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a further slowdown in U.S. employment growth, which may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as planned later this month [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, contrary to economists' expectations of a 75,000 increase [3] - Investors anticipate that the non-farm payroll report will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with a 99% probability of a rate cut expected after the September 17 meeting [3] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield dropping by 12.4 basis points to 3.468%, the 10-year yield down by 10.8 basis points to 4.068%, and the 30-year yield decreasing by 9 basis points to 4.784% [1] - European bond markets also saw declines, with the 10-year German bond yield falling by 5.7 basis points to 2.665% and the 30-year yield down by 4.2 basis points to 3.302% [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a total of $359 billion in bonds from September 8 to September 11, including various maturities [5]