新华财经北京8月27日电（王菁）债市周三（8月27日）延续偏强整理，期现券涨幅较前两日有所收窄， 国债期货主力普遍收涨，银行间现券收益率在1BP以内震荡、午后下行居多；公开市场单日净回笼2361 亿元，临近月末资金利率有所分化。 机构认为，股市火热引发的资金虹吸效应影响渐弱，央行持续呵护下流动性基本稳定，就目前情况看， 跨月预计也不会有太大压力。现券收益率此前的上行，为近日的表现增厚了"保护垫"，自营类资金陆续 入场，可关注债市是否会走出自己的行情。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.24%报117.4，10年期主力合约涨0.08%报108.02，5年期主 力合约涨0.07%报105.59，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.406。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动、午后下行居多，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行0.5BP 至1.9825%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.5BP至1.8425%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率 下行0.25BP至1.7575%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌2.82%，报476.94点，成交金额1110.27亿元。振华转债、松 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with short-term impacts from tax adjustments, but the medium to long-term outlook remains supported by fundamentals, liquidity, and demand for allocation [1] Market Performance - On August 5, the bond market showed a strong upward trend, with government bond futures mostly rising. The 30-year main contract increased by 0.06% to 119.320, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.05% to 108.540 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.914%, and the yields on the 10-year government bonds fell by approximately 0.5 basis points [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also declined, with the 10-year yield down by 3.9 basis points to 1.47% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 6.3 basis points to 3.282% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields below the China Bond valuation, with yields for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds at 1.5255%, 1.6408%, and 1.7546% respectively [4] - Agricultural Development Bank's 2-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5550% and 1.7033% [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.1 basis points to 1.315% [5] Institutional Views - Longjiang Fixed Income expects liquidity to remain reasonably ample in August, with funding rates likely to stay low, but regulatory goals may prevent further declines [7] - CITIC Securities notes that the bond market is experiencing a significant bearish steepening trend, with expectations for stabilization in interest rates [7] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests a flexible approach to trading, with a focus on opportunities above a 10-year government bond yield of 1.7% [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth time, keeping the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% since December of the previous year [3] - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter [4] - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.94%, while the 10-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.324%, reflecting investor reactions to the Fed's decision [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a 9-2 vote against lowering interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the majority opinion [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term inflation expectations and indicated that no decision has been made regarding the September meeting [3] - The cautious stance of Powell led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September, which was viewed as a victory for the Fed [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, setting export tariffs at 15%, which caused a significant drop in copper prices and affected mining companies [4] - The impact of tariffs on the economy is complex, as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase imports before new taxes were implemented, disrupting normal consumption patterns [4] - Santander's chief U.S. economist noted that the effects of tariffs on the economy take longer to materialize than expected [4] Group 4 - In the European bond market, government bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 2.708% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields also increased slightly, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 0.829% [7] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $180 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields are rising slightly. The market is influenced by short-term emotional shocks, but the fundamental economic data remains under various influences, indicating that the logic of monetary easing is still intact for the long term [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21% to 119.27, the 10-year main contract down 0.11% to 108.52, the 5-year main contract down 0.09% to 105.79, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% to 102.38 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising 0.25 basis points to 1.911%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield up 0.5 basis points to 1.7825%, and the 10-year government bond yield up 0.75 basis points to 1.7% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.31 basis points to 3.8292% and the 10-year yield down 3.17 basis points to 4.344% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing 8.5 basis points to 1.588% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also decreased, with the UK yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.568% [3]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3695%, 1.6649%, and 1.7888% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.54, 3.26, and 3.76 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance's 91-day and 182-day treasury bonds had weighted winning yields of 1.2231% and 1.3243%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.28 and 2.3 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising 5.0 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the recent bond market adjustment reflects various factors, including "anti-involution" and water conservancy projects, suggesting that while short-term concerns exist, long-term opportunities may arise [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that the bond market adjustment is driven by changes in three core logics, including strong performance of risk assets and marginal corrections in fundamental expectations [6]. - Hongze Fixed Income pointed out that despite the ongoing adjustments, there are still structural opportunities in the bond market, with a shift in focus from extremes to the middle ground [6].

Market Overview - The bond market returned to a weak state on July 18, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates continued to decline [1][6] Bond Futures and Yields - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.22% to 120.460, the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.08% to 108.790, and the 5-year main contract dropped by 0.05% to 105.990 [2] - The yield on the 10-year "25附息国债11" rose by 0.5 basis points to 1.666%, while the 30-year "25超长特别国债02" increased by 0.75 basis points to 1.875% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.06 basis points to 3.896% and the 10-year yield falling by 0.80 basis points to 4.449% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 2.8 basis points to 1.53% [4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Institutions believe that the low-volatility bond market trend continues, with expectations of policy adjustments increasing towards the end of July [1][8] - According to Zhongjin Company, if the Federal Reserve Chair leaves office early, it would negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold, while Southwest Securities noted that convertible bond valuations are at a relatively low level [7][8] Fund Flows and Liquidity - The central bank announced a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.462% [6]

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the inflation report on July 15 at 8:30 AM ET [3] Group 2 - Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall inflation rate for June to rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase from 2.8% to 3.0% [4] - The consumer price index for June is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May, with housing prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since January [4] - If tariffs begin to show a significant impact on the CPI data, the U.S. bond market may experience sell-offs due to heightened inflation risks [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current quarter, despite ongoing risks such as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering short-term interest rates until they observe how the economy reacts to the tariffs [5] - The White House has criticized the Federal Reserve's management, particularly regarding the renovation costs of its buildings, which have exceeded initial budgets by approximately one-third [6] Group 4 - In the European market, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 2.707% [7] - The UK market is facing investor concerns due to economic slowdown and rising government debt nearing 100% of GDP [7] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's economic slowdown [8]

Core Viewpoint - UK bond yields opened slightly lower, indicating underperformance compared to French and German bonds [1] Group 1 - UK bonds are showing a decline in yield, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment [1] - The performance of UK bonds is lagging behind that of French and German government bonds, highlighting a relative weakness in the UK bond market [1]

Group 1 - The bond market continued to show strength on July 1, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a generally favorable environment for bonds in the second half of the year [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan for the day, reflecting a significant drop in funding rates at the beginning of the month [5][1] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to be completed in July, with an estimated issuance scale of around 2 trillion yuan, leading to a net financing scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, which is relatively low for the year [6][1] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 2.87 basis points to 3.717%, indicating a trend of declining yields [3] - The Asian market saw mixed results, with Japanese 10-year bond yields decreasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.426%, while shorter-term yields increased slightly [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, reflecting a divergence in bond market trends across regions [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Index for convertible bonds rose by 0.48%, with significant trading volume of 62.777 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment in the convertible bond market [2] - The issuance of Panda bonds has significantly increased since the end of 2022, with total issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan, although foreign investment in these bonds remains limited [7] - The PMI data has shown signs of recovery, but the overall demand outlook remains weak, suggesting that while the fundamentals are supportive for the bond market, caution is warranted due to potential volatility [7]