如今，美国的农场主们只能自我安慰，寄希望于未来几年中国不会完全将美国大豆市场剔除，尽管这样的趋势已愈加明显。若特朗普真心希望帮助自己的农 业和改善两国的贸易关系，他当务之急就是要正视中美贸易冲突的根源，取消不合理的关税政策，并重新建立与中国的市场信任。因为人民才是一个国家的 坚实基础，政治上的博弈最终都应以民众的福祉为核心。但现在的特朗普显然有些本末倒置。 随着丰收季节的到来，美国的农场主们面临着前所未有的困扰。他们的烦恼并不是因为粮食的收成不如预期，反而是因为丰收的喜悦却迎来了一个冷清的现 状——中国的买家始终不见踪影。来自观察者网的报道显示，近期美国多州的农业产量统计结果显示，除了少数几个州之外，绝大部分地区的玉米和大豆产 量都超过了去年的水平。然而，这种农业丰收的喜悦在农场主的脸上显得有些苍白无力，因为他们始终无法等到期盼的中国进口商打来的订单电话。这样的 窘境不仅令许多农场主陷入焦虑，甚至让美国总统特朗普也感到不安。 就在不久前，特朗普难以安眠，翻来覆去的思虑之中，他在夜深人静时分发布了一 条"求助信息"，恳求中国能够将美国大豆的订单量提高三倍。这一请求却意外地引来了国内众多人士的不满和指责，因为这一 ...

中信建投研报表示，展望后市，短期看，下周可略偏多一些，过往经验显示，债市大跌后由于情绪偏弱 导致的二轮调整一般在5个交易日左右，此外我们跟踪的情绪指标（债基久期变动速度、农商行、保险 净买入长债规模）均超过做空拥挤度阈值，这意味着短期内债市可能迎来阶段性修复。中期看，二轮调 整后债市或对商品价格、股市等上涨边际钝化，后续或进入交易逻辑混沌的窄幅波动期，建议保持中性 态度波段操作。未来债市变盘的因素关注中美贸易冲突，虽然中美对等关税再度展期90天，但随着美国 与其他国家关税大多完成谈判落地，此前市场更多押注中美"蜜月期"的逻辑可能反转，但需保持耐心等 待观察。 ...

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].

Group 1 - The article highlights the expertise of Dr. Han Zhongxue, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Shenzhen University, focusing on macroeconomic policies and their implications for China's economic growth [2][3] - Dr. Han has conducted over 20 research projects at national and provincial levels and has published more than 30 academic papers, indicating a strong background in economic research [2] - The article outlines Dr. Han's extensive experience in both government and corporate sectors, which enhances his insights into economic policies and their practical applications [2] Group 2 - The article lists key topics covered in Dr. Han's lectures, including macroeconomic policy analysis, supply-side reforms, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on industrial layout [3] - It emphasizes the importance of financial system reforms in China, including the evolution of capital markets and local government financing platforms [3] - Public management topics discussed include game theory in public policy choices and the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China [3]

Core Viewpoint - Changsha Bank has shown resilience amid the US-China trade conflict, with manageable impacts on its operations and a steady growth in financial performance, including revenue and net profit increases in Q1 2025. Group 1: Company Operations - Changsha Bank conducted an institutional survey on June 27, 2025, with participation from various financial institutions [1] - The bank assessed the impact of the US-China trade conflict, noting that its trade volume with the US is relatively small, and the overall impact on its clients is controllable [2] - The bank's convertible bond project, initiated in 2022, aims to raise 11 billion yuan and is currently under review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changsha Bank reported a main revenue of 6.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.173 billion yuan, up 3.81% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 2.170 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.75% increase [5] - The bank's dividend payout for 2024 is set at 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of 22.49%, slightly up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, 8 institutions have rated the stock, with 7 buy ratings and 1 hold rating, indicating positive market sentiment [6] - The average target price from institutions over the last 90 days is 10.59 yuan [6] - Detailed profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 show expected net profits ranging from approximately 8.1 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [8]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises dropped sharply from 3.0% in April to -9.1% in May, indicating a significant impact from tariffs[1] - The decline in revenue profit margin contributed approximately 10.2 percentage points to the profit growth rate decline in May[1] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Factors - Rising costs due to tariffs have led to a decrease in profit margins, particularly affecting downstream industries[2] - Companies are showing a weakened willingness to restock, with both revenue and finished goods inventory growth rates declining in May[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in May were -21.7%, 3.5%, and -13.3% respectively, indicating increased pressure on upstream and downstream sectors[3] - Downstream industries, particularly entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing, experienced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively[3] Group 4: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of -18.1% in May, while private enterprises experienced a smaller decline of 0.8%[6] - The larger impact on state-owned enterprises is attributed to their inability to quickly adjust supply chains in response to tariff changes[6]

Group 1 - The recent surge in A-shares is primarily driven by the approval of a "virtual asset trading license" by Guotai Junan International, allowing direct trading of cryptocurrencies on their platform, which has significantly boosted market confidence [1] - The market experienced a sharp decline after the initial surge, highlighting the challenges of timing short-term market movements despite a generally positive long-term outlook for value investors [1][2] - Economic data has shown resilience despite initial pessimism following the US-China trade conflict, with export figures remaining strong and consumer policies supporting stability [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a downward trend in fundamentals, yet there are structural opportunities in certain sectors, particularly in technology, which is seen as a growth driver [6][7] - The concept of technological advancement is emphasized as a key factor in economic growth, with significant breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion indicating a potential for recovery and prosperity [8] - The market is experiencing a rotation phenomenon, where sector performance varies significantly, reflecting a shift from a bear market to a bull market, with indices showing upward movement amidst this rotation [9][10] Group 3 - Financial stocks have played a crucial role in driving the index above key resistance levels, supported by a macro backdrop of declining interest rates, while technology stocks are also showing signs of recovery [11] - The current market environment is described as both optimistic and challenging for investors, with the need for a disciplined approach to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends during periods of volatility [11]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining negative for three consecutive months[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest since August 2023, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating slight improvement in internal growth momentum despite weak demand[6] Trade and Export Data - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from April, while imports fell by 3.4%, a drop of 3.1 percentage points[6] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $6.98 billion from April[6] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%, worsening by 13.5 percentage points[22] Financial Data - New RMB loans in May totaled 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year[24] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, up by 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bonds contributing significantly[24] - M1 growth was 2.3%, while M2 growth was 7.9%, indicating a mixed performance in monetary aggregates[32] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3362.1082, while the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Component Index were at 3843.0912 and 10051.9655, respectively[2] - The average daily trading volume increased to 1.3717 trillion yuan, up by 162.8 billion yuan from the previous week[50] - The financial sector showed strong performance, rising by 0.76%, while consumer sectors declined by 1.08%[50] Policy Outlook - The central bank's net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan in the week indicates a tightening of liquidity, with market rates slightly rising[7] - Future monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting economic recovery amid ongoing uncertainties[39] - The upcoming tax period may cause temporary disruptions in the funding environment, necessitating close monitoring of central bank operations[39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From April to May, the black metal sector showed a pattern of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with the discount of futures prices to spot prices widening. The current real - demand is acceptable, especially the export demand is resilient. Steel mills have good profitability and are mostly operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to remain between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time. Attention should be paid to whether the weak demand expectation in the off - season can be realized. If the expectation is false, prices may rebound; otherwise, the weakness may continue. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Iron ore has a risk of supplementary decline in the medium term, and coking coal may fall again due to the oversupply situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - From April to May, the steel market had strong current demand but weak future expectations. The market was pessimistic about the future due to the off - season and the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a large discount of futures to spot prices. At the end of May, the US raised steel tariffs, but market expectations eased after the Sino - US leaders' call. The research team visited 8 local enterprises in Tangshan from June 9th to understand the supply - demand situation, the impact of tariff hikes on exports, and enterprises' views on the market [5]. 3.2 Research Conclusions - **Order situation**: Steel mills' orders are generally booked 15 - 30 days in advance, with over - selling being common. Demand for shipbuilding and infrastructure steel is good, while construction steel demand is poor. Some steel mills reported slower downstream purchases due to the expected off - season [2][6]. - **Profitability and production**: Steel mills' profit per ton is generally between 150 - 160 yuan, and some steel billet profits can reach 200 yuan/ton. Most enterprises are operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to stay between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time [2][6][8]. - **Export situation**: Although there was a brief impact on exports in early April due to the trade conflict, exports have been performing well since then. Some steel mills' export orders are booked until August or September, and high export profits have reduced the available steel billet resources [2][6]. - **Raw material inventory**: Steel mills' iron ore inventory is about 10 - 15 days, and coking coal and coke are purchased as needed, with inventory levels of 2 - 7 days [2][6]. - **Market outlook**: Enterprises have different views on the future, but generally, the industry is cautious, not expecting a short - term improvement. Most believe that the oversupply of coking coal remains unchanged, and prices may fall further [2][6][7]. - **Operation strategies**: Some local enterprises are buying rebar futures and selling forward - delivery steel billet spot. Others are hedging iron ore through futures or over - the - counter options to lock in costs [7]. 3.3 Research Minutes by Enterprise - **A steel trader**: The enterprise mainly sells wear - resistant plates and medium - thick plates. Inventory is low, about 2 - 3 million tons locally. Sales have doubled this year compared to last year, and export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year, believing that policy may be further strengthened, and coking coal prices below 800 yuan won't last long [9]. - **A plate processing warehouse**: It belongs to a large Xiamen - based trading enterprise, with a current inventory of about 4 million tons. Exports decreased after May due to stricter government control. Processing volume has declined, and the current processing capacity is 200 - 300 tons per day [10]. - **A mainstream steel billet warehouse**: It is the largest steel storage in Tangshan, with a current inventory of about 20 million tons. Steel mills are prioritizing export orders, resulting in less available steel billet resources. The enterprise is pessimistic about the future, expecting prices to gradually decline [13][14]. - **An international trading company A under a steel mill**: The affiliated steel mill has a capacity of 7.1 million tons. The company is operating at full capacity, with good profit margins for strip steel and section steel. Orders are booked well in advance, and exports have recovered. Raw material inventory is low [15]. - **An international trading company B under a steel mill**: The company believes that the steel billet market is in a bullish structure. It is buying rebar futures and selling steel billet spot. Industry - wide steel billet export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year [17]. - **Steel mill A**: It has an annual capacity of 7.5 million tons. After a blast furnace resumed operation, it is expected to have another maintenance. Profits are high, and orders are booked one month in advance. Export has recovered. The enterprise is pessimistic about July - August due to expected hot metal production decline and believes coking coal prices will fall further [18][19]. - **Steel mill B**: With a capacity of 10 million tons, it has good sales and profits, and is operating at full capacity. It is not pessimistic about the future, but believes that cost factors may drag down steel prices [20]. - **Steel mill C**: It has a capacity of about 2 million tons, with good profits and full - capacity production. Orders are booked until September. The enterprise believes the market is at the bottom, and is conducting some futures - cash reverse arbitrage and iron ore hedging. It thinks coking coal will remain weak [21].