Report Title - "连粕大幅下挫 油脂高位震荡—国信期货油脂油料周报" [2] Report Date - September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the protein meal market, the CBOT soybeans and domestic continuous meal both showed a downward trend this week. The future of US soybean exports depends on the improvement of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by factors such as whether China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian premium, and RMB exchange rate. In the oil market, the US biofuel policy is unclear, and the Malaysian palm oil is in a high - level shock. The domestic oil market is affected by supply, cost, and policy, showing an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6][139]. Content Summary by Section Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis Market Trends - CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell this week. Domestic continuous meal oscillated lower, with the main contract breaking through the 3000 - integer mark and then rebounding at the end of the week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices also declined under pressure [6]. Export and Inspection - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than expected, but the cumulative export inspection volume this year is still affected by China's non - purchase [10][12]. Crop Growth - As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [24]. Weather Conditions - North American weather is complex, with the eastern half experiencing cool and dry weather, and some areas having unstable weather due to the interaction of cold fronts and monsoon circulation. South American weather information is not detailed in the report [27]. Oilseed Market - In August, the US soybean crushing volume decreased, but it was still higher than the same period last year. Analysts have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, and the US soybean industry is affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [41][42]. Inventory and Profit - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical available days for crushing are 19 days. The spot and futures crushing margins both declined significantly [50]. Production and Inventory - As of the 37th week (September 13), the domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The rapeseed opening rate also increased, but it was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [58][67]. Consumption and Basis - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 37th week was 190.12 tons, an increase from last week. The basis analysis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows different trends [61]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis Market Trends - US soybean oil first rose and then fell this week. Malaysian palm oil followed US soybean oil and oscillated lower. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rising, soybean oil first falling and then rebounding, and palm oil following Malaysian palm oil and oscillating [74]. International Oil Information - In August, the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory decreased. In Brazil, the proportion of soybean oil in soybean crushing profit reached a record high. India's palm oil imports increased in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. Different institutions have different statistics on Malaysia's September 1 - 15 palm oil exports [77][78]. Weather Conditions - Southeast Asia has experienced large - scale seasonal rains, with some areas having heavy rainfall [85]. Price and Spread - The prices and spreads of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in the spot and futures markets show different trends. The overall inventory of domestic oils increased slightly this week, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [95]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. The oil - to - meal ratio of beans decreased, while that of rapeseed increased slightly. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal increased slightly [115]. Inter - monthly Spread - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil increased significantly [123]. Part 3: Market Outlook Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic continuous meal, and various oil and meal indexes shows different trends [129][130][132]. Next - Week Outlook - Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of different varieties show different trends. Fundamentally, the protein meal market is affected by Sino - US trade and domestic inventory, and the oil market is affected by international policies and domestic demand [138][139].

Report Title - "A Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds by Guoxin Futures" [2] Report Date - September 5, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated downward this week due to concerns about export demand, while domestic soybean meal fluctuated at the bottom. In the oils market, international oils fluctuated within a range, and domestic oils oscillated higher. Looking ahead, the protein meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and the oils market is likely to continue its strong - side oscillation [6][78][144]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated downward due to concerns about export demand and the lack of Chinese buyers. Domestic soybean meal fluctuated around 3050. Brazilian premium increases provided cost - driven support, but future supply uncertainties intensified market volatility. Spot market trading was light [6]. 3.1.2 Export Data - As of August 28, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, up 20% from the previous week but down 6% from the same period last year. The 2024/25 total export inspection volume reached 49,763,188 tons, up 11.3% year - on - year, and 97.5% of the revised annual export target [12]. 3.1.3 Crop Conditions - As of August 31, the U.S. soybean pod - setting rate was 94%, the leaf - falling rate was 11%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 65% [23][24]. 3.1.4 Global Supply Information - In Brazil, the 2025/26 soybean planting area in Paraná state is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% year - on - year, and the yield may increase by 4%. StoneX maintains Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast at a record 178.2 million tons [45]. 3.1.5 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 6.8546 million tons. The domestic spot crushing profit continued to decline, while the futures crushing profit slightly rebounded [54]. 3.1.6 Production and Consumption - As of the 35th week (August 30), the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 67.26%, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.063 million tons. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 35th week was 1.9941 million tons [61][65]. 3.2 Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated within a range, with U.S. soybean oil oscillating at the bottom and Malaysian palm oil oscillating at a high level. Domestic oils oscillated higher, with palm oil leading the rise on Friday [78]. 3.2.2 International Information - From January to July 2025, Indonesia exported 13.64 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, up 10.95% year - on - year. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% [80]. 3.2.3 Weather Conditions - Typhoons and monsoons brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and neighboring countries, benefiting rice and oil palms in the region [89]. 3.2.4 Price and Spread - The overall trend of oils this week was palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [117]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.7017 million tons, up 4.22% week - on - week [100]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of U.S. soybeans, soybean meal, and various oils and meals are provided, but specific conclusions are not given [134][135][137]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined. Similar situations apply to different oils [143]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the protein meal market, the USDA report is due next week, and there is a possibility of a decrease in U.S. soybean yields. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile. In the oils market, the MPOB report is coming, and the domestic oils market is expected to continue its strong - side oscillation [144].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to the absence of Chinese buyers for their agricultural products, particularly soybeans, despite a record harvest season [1][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Market Dynamics - American farmers are experiencing a significant increase in corn and soybean production, with most states reporting yields higher than last year [1]. - The lack of orders from China has left farmers anxious, as they had anticipated strong demand from this key market [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market share in China has drastically declined from nearly 50% in 2016 to only 20% currently, with Brazil capturing 70% of the market [1]. Group 2: Trade Policies and Political Implications - The trade tensions initiated by President Trump's policies have led to retaliatory measures from China, resulting in decreased demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. - Trump's recent plea for increased soybean orders from China has been met with criticism, as many attribute the current market situation to his administration's trade decisions [1][3]. - The article suggests that for any improvement in trade relations, Trump must reconsider and eliminate unreasonable tariffs to rebuild trust with China [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - American farmers are left hoping that China will not completely eliminate U.S. soybeans from its market, although this trend appears increasingly likely [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China, suggesting that a stable trade relationship is essential for the benefit of both nations [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market in the short term, with historical data suggesting that a second round of adjustments typically occurs around five trading days after a significant drop [1] - The tracked sentiment indicators, including changes in bond fund durations and net purchases of long-term bonds by rural commercial banks and insurance companies, have exceeded the threshold for crowded short positions, suggesting a potential for a phase of recovery in the bond market [1] - In the medium term, after the second round of adjustments, the bond market may experience a dampening effect on the marginal increases in commodity prices and stock markets, leading to a period of narrow fluctuations characterized by chaotic trading logic, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral stance for wave operations [1] Group 2 - Future factors influencing bond market volatility include the US-China trade conflict, with the recent extension of reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days, indicating a potential reversal of the market's previous optimism regarding a "honeymoon period" between the two countries as the US completes tariff negotiations with other nations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market in the short term, indicating a potential phase of recovery after recent declines [1] Short-term Outlook - Historical experience shows that after a significant drop in the bond market, a secondary adjustment typically occurs within about five trading days due to weakened sentiment [1] - Monitored sentiment indicators, such as the speed of changes in bond fund durations and net purchases of long-term bonds by rural commercial banks and insurance companies, have exceeded the threshold for crowded short positions, indicating a possible short-term recovery in the bond market [1] Medium-term Outlook - Following the secondary adjustment, the bond market may experience diminishing marginal impacts on commodity prices and stock markets, potentially entering a phase of narrow fluctuations characterized by chaotic trading logic [1] - A neutral stance with a focus on swing trading is recommended for investors during this period [1] Factors Influencing Future Bond Market Changes - Key factors to watch for future shifts in the bond market include the ongoing US-China trade conflict, as the extension of equal tariffs for another 90 days may alter previous market expectations of a "honeymoon period" between the two countries [1] - With most tariff negotiations between the US and other countries completed, the market's previous assumptions may need to be reassessed, necessitating patience for further observations [1]

Core Points - The recent US-China trade talks in Sweden ended without significant breakthroughs, with a noticeable shift in the US attitude from positive to arrogant [1][5] - The meeting's outcomes were less impactful compared to previous discussions in London, despite US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's positive remarks [1][3] Group 1: Meeting Dynamics - The meeting started later in the day, with both parties entering the venue at 3 PM, and it was characterized by a lack of interaction with Sweden, unlike previous talks [3] - The primary focus of the discussions shifted from trade issues to diplomatic and security concerns, indicating a more complex and relaxed negotiation environment [3] Group 2: US Position and Strategy - Prior to the talks, President Trump made several concessions to China, including approvals for technology exports and resuming key component supplies, but the US stance changed during the negotiations [5][9] - The US pressured China regarding its oil purchases from Iran and Russia, threatening higher tariffs if these continued, showcasing a more aggressive approach [5][9] Group 3: Future Implications - The success of the Sweden talks is linked to the upcoming APEC summit, with both sides agreeing to extend the tariff pause for 90 days, increasing the likelihood of a summit [7][9] - Despite the temporary easing of trade tensions, unresolved structural issues, particularly in technology and supply chains, pose ongoing risks for US-China relations [9]

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].

Group 1 - The article highlights the expertise of Dr. Han Zhongxue, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Shenzhen University, focusing on macroeconomic policies and their implications for China's economic growth [2][3] - Dr. Han has conducted over 20 research projects at national and provincial levels and has published more than 30 academic papers, indicating a strong background in economic research [2] - The article outlines Dr. Han's extensive experience in both government and corporate sectors, which enhances his insights into economic policies and their practical applications [2] Group 2 - The article lists key topics covered in Dr. Han's lectures, including macroeconomic policy analysis, supply-side reforms, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on industrial layout [3] - It emphasizes the importance of financial system reforms in China, including the evolution of capital markets and local government financing platforms [3] - Public management topics discussed include game theory in public policy choices and the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China [3]

Core Viewpoint - Changsha Bank has shown resilience amid the US-China trade conflict, with manageable impacts on its operations and a steady growth in financial performance, including revenue and net profit increases in Q1 2025. Group 1: Company Operations - Changsha Bank conducted an institutional survey on June 27, 2025, with participation from various financial institutions [1] - The bank assessed the impact of the US-China trade conflict, noting that its trade volume with the US is relatively small, and the overall impact on its clients is controllable [2] - The bank's convertible bond project, initiated in 2022, aims to raise 11 billion yuan and is currently under review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changsha Bank reported a main revenue of 6.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.173 billion yuan, up 3.81% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 2.170 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.75% increase [5] - The bank's dividend payout for 2024 is set at 4.20 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of 22.49%, slightly up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Over the past 90 days, 8 institutions have rated the stock, with 7 buy ratings and 1 hold rating, indicating positive market sentiment [6] - The average target price from institutions over the last 90 days is 10.59 yuan [6] - Detailed profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 show expected net profits ranging from approximately 8.1 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [8]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises dropped sharply from 3.0% in April to -9.1% in May, indicating a significant impact from tariffs[1] - The decline in revenue profit margin contributed approximately 10.2 percentage points to the profit growth rate decline in May[1] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Factors - Rising costs due to tariffs have led to a decrease in profit margins, particularly affecting downstream industries[2] - Companies are showing a weakened willingness to restock, with both revenue and finished goods inventory growth rates declining in May[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in May were -21.7%, 3.5%, and -13.3% respectively, indicating increased pressure on upstream and downstream sectors[3] - Downstream industries, particularly entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing, experienced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively[3] Group 4: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of -18.1% in May, while private enterprises experienced a smaller decline of 0.8%[6] - The larger impact on state-owned enterprises is attributed to their inability to quickly adjust supply chains in response to tariff changes[6]