专题：2026新年贺词 来源：浙商证券在线 岁月更迭,万象更新。在2026年即将 到来之际,我们谨向每一位并肩前行的浙 商证券人,向长期给予我们信任与托付的 股东、客户,向所有关心支持我们的社会 各界友人,致以最崇高的敬意与最美好的 新年祝福。 回望2025,这是中国式现代化征程中 一个刻下深深印记的年份。党的二十届四 中全会擘画的发展蓝图,将"十五五"的 航向锚定在更加壮阔的未来。我们身处这 场关乎国运的宏大叙事,愈发清晰地感 知:资本市场,既是资本流动的河床,又 是撬动创新的支点,也是通向共富之路的 桥梁。金融的初心,当如烛火,照亮国家 战略的经纬,温暖千家万户的期盼。 过去一年,我们俯身大地,倾听实体 经济的脉搏。公司始终胸怀"国之大 者"、牢记"省之要事"、践行上级党委 决策部署,用心书写金融"五篇大文 章",以"投资+投行+投研"的合力,畅 通企业全生命周期的融资脉络。发行股权 承销项目8单,债券承销规模突破千亿元, 连续三年主承销规模超千亿元。数字的背 后,是无数创新种子的破土,是产业升级 齿轮的加速转动。我们精准落子,设立多 支政府引导基金,如同涓涓细流汇入科技 创新与区域发展的沃土 -- 从绿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Qihang·2025 Financial Annual Conference" highlighted the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of 2026 for China's economy and capital markets, which are expected to enter a recovery phase and experience significant growth opportunities [1][2]. Economic Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point as China moves away from inflation lows and establishes a new economic equilibrium, with expectations of a recovery cycle in the economy and capital markets [2]. - The "Fifteen Five" period is projected to be a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with significant improvements in overall productivity and advancements in technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors [3]. Inflation and Commodity Prices - The CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.5, with the possibility of higher figures, while the PPI may turn positive in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The "pig oil resonance" phenomenon is predicted, where pork prices will significantly influence the CPI, and oil prices are expected to remain supported due to geopolitical risks and limited production increases from OPEC+ [2][3]. Capital Market Insights - The capital market is expected to enter a golden age during the "Fifteen Five" period, with foreign investment becoming a crucial source of incremental capital [4]. - The future of the Chinese stock market looks promising, with continuous inflow of new capital being a key factor for a sustained bull market [4]. - To surpass the 2015 market peak, the daily trading volume in the A-share market needs to reach between 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, supported by regulatory policies aimed at attracting long-term capital [4].

"却顾所来径，苍苍横翠微。" 2025年这一年，全球经济复苏乏力与地缘博弈交织的外部环境，同国内高质量发展与金融强国建设的内在要求相互碰撞，共同推动中国金融体 系加速告别规模扩张的旧范式，迈入以质量提升、结构优化、风险可控为核心的新周期。 2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五五"规划建议）正式公布，为未来五年 中国经济社会发展擘画了宏伟蓝图。这份纲领性文件将金融提升到前所未有的战略高度，"金融"一词被提及17次，并首次将"加快建设金融强 国"确立为核心目标，标志着金融发展从"大"到"强"的历史性跨越。 "十五五"规划建议为金融强国建设明确了清晰的实施路径与核心任务。在对内改革层面，明确提出完善中央银行制度、货币政策与宏观审慎管 理体系"双支柱"框架；将科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融这"五篇大文章"确立为金融服务实体经济的核心抓手；并致力 于提高资本市场制度的包容性与适应性。 在对外开放与监管层面，规划强调"稳"与"进"的平衡：一方面要求全面加强金融监管，强化央地协同，丰富风险处置工具，构建坚实的风险防 范化解体系；另一方面则明确 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a maximum increase of 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.28% at one point, but later showed a downward trend leading to a slight decline at midday [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3962.24 points, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of approximately 528.4 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13513.21 points, down 0.67%, with a trading volume of about 783.7 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3207.24 points, down 1.10%, with a trading volume of around 350.3 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - At the opening, sectors such as rental and purchase rights, AI glasses, and Hainan Free Trade Zone saw significant gains, while sectors like chemical fiber, digital currency, and cross-border payments experienced notable declines [1] - By midday, the AI application sector led the gains, influenced by a 20% surge in BlueFocus, while sectors such as chemical fiber, communication equipment, and agriculture faced the largest declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates that the "Two New" policy will officially launch in 2026, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation methods, aligning with market expectations. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have announced the early issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old vehicles [3] - Huatai Securities highlights the volatility in the communication sector in 2025, driven by AI computing power narratives and geopolitical impacts, but expects a return to industry trend pricing logic in 2026, focusing on AI computing power as a primary investment theme [3] - Dongwu Securities notes the rapid evolution of the space computing industry, emphasizing its strategic value in addressing global computing resource bottlenecks, with significant investments from tech giants and innovative companies [4] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy, expanding the support scope compared to 2025, with subsidies up to 20,000 yuan for scrapping and 15,000 yuan for replacement [5] Economic Indicators - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December indicates an overall economic recovery, with manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, and a composite PMI output index at 50.7%, all showing increases from the previous month [6] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, reflecting a significant improvement in the construction industry's outlook, driven by favorable weather conditions and pre-holiday construction acceleration [6]

Core Insights - The A-share IPO review process for 2025 concluded with a high-quality performance, featuring a total of 113 companies reviewed and an overall approval rate of 97.35%, marking a record high in recent years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main board and the ChiNext board showed the most stable performance, with the Shanghai main board (19 companies), Shenzhen main board (10 companies), and ChiNext (14 companies) achieving a 100% approval rate, indicating precise support for mature and innovative growth enterprises [1] - The Beijing Stock Exchange emerged as the primary venue for reviewing innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, with 51 companies reviewed and 49 approved, resulting in a 96% approval rate, reflecting sustained market vitality [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board maintained stringent selection criteria for "hard technology," with 19 companies reviewed and 18 approved, yielding a 94.7% approval rate [1] Group 2: Underwriting Institutions - The leading underwriting institutions demonstrated a significant "winner-takes-all" effect, with Guotai Junan Securities leading with 16 approved projects, followed by CITIC Securities (12) and CITIC Jianan Securities (11), solidifying their positions in the top tier [3] - Other institutions such as Dongwu, Guojin, Guotou, Huatai United, and China Merchants Securities each contributed 5 approved projects, forming the backbone of annual IPO underwriting [3] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The capital market's effectiveness in serving the real economy has significantly improved, with resources accelerating towards high-tech manufacturing. The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors led with 20 companies reviewed, followed by specialized equipment manufacturing (17 companies), and automotive and electrical machinery manufacturing (10 companies each), highlighting the financing dominance of "hard technology" and high-end manufacturing sectors [5]

Group 1 - The A500ETF Southern (159352) experienced a slight decline of 0.32% with a trading volume of 6.157 billion yuan as of the midday on December 31 [1] - The fund saw a net subscription of 134 million yuan yesterday, with a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan over the past five days, and a total net subscription of 15.2 billion yuan over the past ten days [1] - The fund's scale increased from 22.642 billion yuan to 46.773 billion yuan over the year, marking a growth of 24.1 billion yuan or 106.58% [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the market focus may shift towards policy expectations and industry trends for the coming year, with a potential active performance in small and mid-cap growth style thematic investments [1] - Western Securities anticipates that the appreciation of the yuan will accelerate the repatriation of cross-border capital, reinforcing the trend of yuan appreciation, driven by China's strong industrial strength and export competitiveness [1] - Debon Securities maintains a positive outlook on the slow bull market, emphasizing the importance of industry catalysts and noting that the market liquidity environment remains loose [1] Group 3 - The A500ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which covers a broader range of industries compared to traditional indices like the CSI 300, including more leaders in emerging sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [1] - Investors can utilize the A500ETF Southern and its linked funds (Class A 022434; Class C 022435) for a streamlined investment approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovation and steady development of the digital renminbi, addressing four major challenges faced by digital payment tools in relation to central bank monetary control, financial disintermediation, responsibilities of commercial banks, and the centralized management of bank accounts versus the decentralized nature of blockchain technology [1][2]. Summary by Sections Digital Renminbi Development - The digital renminbi has achieved significant progress in its pilot phase, with a total of 3.48 billion transactions amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to launch a 2.0 version of the digital renminbi on January 1, 2026, to address emerging challenges and enhance the management service system [2]. Challenges and Policy Recommendations - Four main challenges identified include: 1. The impact of new "currency" payment tools on traditional frameworks. 2. Financial disintermediation risks due to digital cash circulation outside the banking system. 3. Ambiguities in the responsibilities of commercial banks regarding digital currency. 4. Compatibility issues between centralized account management and decentralized systems [2]. - Proposed policy measures include: 1. A dual-layer operational structure to strengthen the development direction of the digital renminbi. 2. Classifying the digital renminbi as a liability of commercial banks, integrating it into the reserve and deposit insurance systems to mitigate disintermediation risks [2]. 3. Clarifying the responsibilities of banks, allowing them to pay interest on digital currency balances [2]. 4. Implementing a hybrid architecture combining account systems, currency strings, and smart contracts to leverage blockchain technology [2]. Transition to Deposit Currency - The digital renminbi is transitioning from a "legal currency" to a "deposit currency," enhancing its compatibility with the existing financial system and expanding the operational space for financial institutions [3]. - This transition aims to improve monetary circulation efficiency, stabilize the financial system, and enhance service capabilities for the real economy, potentially increasing transaction volumes in broader scenarios [3].

Key Points - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association announced the addition of 24 institutions qualified for underwriting non-financial corporate debt financing instruments, including 8 general lead underwriters and 15 underwriters [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, aiming to meet the demand for the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 3.125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan into the market [3] - The Henan Provincial Finance Department announced adjustments to the use of funds for 16 special bonds, with a total investment of 11.968 billion yuan [4] - The Tianjin Municipal Committee emphasized the need to accelerate the transformation and exit of financing platforms to effectively mitigate economic risks [5] - The Shandong Provincial Government has introduced measures to support state-owned enterprises in establishing industrial investment funds, encouraging investment in strategic emerging industries [5] - The Shandong Provincial Government Investment Management Measures prohibit local governments from illegally borrowing debt to fund government investment projects [6] - Four companies in Henan have been approved to register a total of 4.241 billion yuan in debt financing instruments [7] - Zhengzhou Urban Construction Group issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term and interest rates of 2.49% and 2.39% [9] - The Xinyang Shentou Operation Management Company plans to issue 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with Guosen Securities as the underwriter [11] - The Henan Cultural Tourism Investment Group signed a controlling acquisition agreement with Yimei International Travel Agency to strengthen their position in the inbound tourism market [12] - The Jiyuan Investment Group announced a non-compensatory transfer of 54.51 million shares of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., valued at 626 million yuan [14] - The China Securities Association released the results of the bond business quality evaluation, with 14 companies receiving an A rating [14] - The market outlook for 2026 indicates new characteristics in the bond market, including potential downward pressure on interest rates and a possible "dual bull" market scenario for stocks and bonds [20][21]

新华财经北京12月30日电 中国银行间市场交易商协会发布《关于2025年非金融企业债务融资工具承销 业务相关会员申请从事承销相关业务市场评价结果的公告》，增加8家非金融企业债务融资工具一般主 承销商、1家科技创新非金融企业债务融资工具主承销商、15家非金融企业债务融资工具承销商。 新增财通证券股份有限公司、第一创业证券承销保荐有限责任公司、华创证券有限责任公司等8家会员 为非金融企业债务融资工具一般主承销商。 主承销商及承销商应按照相关要求，设立主承销及承销业务相关部门，配备专职主承销及承销业务人 员，建立健全主承销及承销业务操作规程、风险管理和内部控制制度，规范开展非金融企业债务融资工 具主承销及承销业务。 主承销商获得主承销业务资格后，须与具备独立主承销能力的主承销商联合开展主承销业务。根据要 求，具备一定联席主承销业务经验后，可独立开展非金融企业债务融资工具主承销业务。 主承销商或承销商因违法违规行为受到刑事处罚、重大行政处罚或交易商协会重大自律处分的，交易商 协会将根据《市场评价规则》等自律规则暂停或取消其承销业务相关资格。 | 新增科技创新非金融企业债务融资工具主承销商名单 | | --- | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of financial culture in driving the healthy development of the economy, highlighting HuLong Securities' commitment to social welfare, customer wealth creation, shareholder returns, and employee value realization [1] Group 1: Financial Services and Innovation - HuLong Securities focuses on serving the real economy, particularly in the technology innovation sector, by participating in initiatives like the "Yuruyi Plan" in Gansu Province, investing over 1.3 billion yuan in advanced manufacturing and biomedicine through various financial instruments [1] - The company has successfully assisted in the listing of cloud-based technology companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange and has issued innovation bonds and established industry funds to support local tech enterprises [1] Group 2: Green Finance - HuLong Securities integrates the concept of "green mountains and clear waters are invaluable assets" with a prudent financial culture, supporting regional green transformation [2] - The company acted as a financial advisor in the major asset restructuring of Gansu Energy, completing a 7.6 billion yuan asset transfer and 1.9 billion yuan financing, facilitating its transition to a comprehensive energy company [2] Group 3: Inclusive Finance - The company emphasizes its commitment to inclusive finance as a means to enhance social welfare, empowering small and micro enterprises through diverse channels and innovative educational models [2] - HuLong Securities has invested over 7.5 million yuan in support initiatives for regions like Gannan and Tianshui, and its team won second place in a national investor rights knowledge competition [2] Group 4: Pension Finance - In response to societal aging demands, HuLong Securities has initiated a fund for the development of the pension service industry, investing 450 million yuan to support the construction of the pension system [3] - The company has introduced financial products tailored for elderly needs and developed a comprehensive pension finance service system, including educational initiatives for seniors [3] Group 5: Digital Finance - HuLong Securities embraces digital transformation while maintaining compliance, enhancing service efficiency through initiatives like "one machine handles all" and local deployment of financial AI models [3] - The company applies cutting-edge technology in risk management and investment decision-making, ensuring high-quality development while adhering to risk management principles [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, HuLong Securities aims to uphold the banner of Chinese financial culture, focusing on compliance, integrity, professionalism, and win-win cooperation, while enhancing service capabilities to support the real economy [4] - The company is committed to preventing systemic risks and contributing to the modernization of Gansu Province through its financial initiatives [4]