证券研究报告 关税影响显现，5 月工企利润同比转负 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 27 日│中国内地 动态点评 5 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 5 月工业企业盈利同比增速较 4 月的 3%明显回落至-9.1%，出口相关 的中游制造业量价有所承压、或显示关税政策对企业利润率及订单的影响 显现，下游部分消费品行业或受促销影响、呈现"量增价跌"，亦对盈利形 成扰动。整体而言，工业企业收入同比增速从 4 月的 2.6%继续回落至 0.8%， 与 5 月出口增速放缓相印证，出口链相关行业盈利回升态势受阻，关税影响 或逐步凸显，电气机械、仪器仪表、专用设备、计算机通信等行业利润率及 收入增速均有回落；同时，油价及黑色系价格下跌对石化及煤炭开采等行业 利润率回升持续形成压制，对应中下游的石化加工相关行业盈利边际改善； 此外，汽车、服装、文教娱乐用品等行业营收增速回升，但盈利增速走弱， 或显示出购物节促销等因素对价格的拖累。 往前看，7 月 9 日"对等关税"豁免期后关税政策仍有较大扰动，外需不确 定性或对后续出口订单带来扰动，尤其是对企业利润率的影响或逐步显现。 内需层面，"以旧换新"政策补贴使用过半，虽然三四季度补贴 ...

6月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1至5月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额27204.3亿元，同 比下降1.1%（按可比口径计算）。5月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%。 1至5月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比虽然有所下降，但从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度 看，规上工业企业毛利润同比增长1.1%，拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长3.0个百分点。从营业收入 看，1至5月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长2.7%，工业企业营收持续保持增长态势，为企业 下阶段盈利恢复创造有利条件。 民生证券宏观研究团队指出，5月份表现为"量上价下、利润率负增"的形势，除了PPI降幅扩大导致价格 继续成为企业利润增速的拖累因子之外，企业营收利润率的下滑成为5月工业企业利润增速下行的"导火 索"。 广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓指出，1至5月份，国有控股企业利润增速跌幅扩大，需要更多支持 政策帮助困难企业加快转型升级步伐。此外，1至5月份，工业产成品周转天数为20.8天、应收账款平均 回收期超过70天，均高于去年同期水平，表明工业部门资产周转压力不小。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，多重因素影响工业企业利润下降 ...

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises in China for January to May 2025 reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous months, but still a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to multiple factors [1][4]. Group 1: Profit Trends - The decline in industrial enterprise profits is primarily attributed to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations, with investment income affecting profit growth by 1.7 percentage points [4]. - Despite the year-on-year profit drop, the total profit increased by 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months, indicating positive signals in economic operations [4]. - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, reflecting a sustained growth trend [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector, a key pillar of the industrial economy, saw a profit increase of 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [4]. - Among the eight industries under equipment manufacturing, seven experienced profit growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment showing double-digit growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [4]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Strategic emerging industries such as "going to the sky and entering the sea" have significantly boosted the industrial economy, with profits in the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors increasing by 56.0% year-on-year [5]. - The aircraft manufacturing and aerospace sectors saw profit surges of 120.7% and 28.6% respectively, driven by the commercial operation of domestic large aircraft and the initiation of manned lunar exploration projects [5]. - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing industries experienced profit growth of 85.0%, with metal ship manufacturing profits doubling to 111.8% [5]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The ongoing "two new" policies (equipment updates and consumer goods replacement) have significantly driven profit growth in related industries, with general and specialized equipment profits increasing by 10.6% and 7.1% respectively [5]. - The expansion of the consumer goods replacement policy has led to substantial profit increases in smart consumer device manufacturing and household electrical appliance manufacturing, with growth rates of 101.5% and 31.2% respectively [5]. Group 5: Resilience of Enterprises - Private enterprises showed resilience with a year-on-year profit growth of 3.4%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 0.3%, both exceeding the average level of large-scale industrial enterprises [5]. - The contributions of private and foreign enterprises to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises were 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [5]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The next steps involve implementing more proactive macro policies to strengthen the domestic circulation, enhance innovation-driven development, and promote high-quality industrial growth, laying a solid foundation for the continuous recovery and stable growth of industrial enterprise profits [6].

Core Viewpoint - Wuxi Lichi Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. has submitted its IPO application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately 1 billion yuan for various projects, including the establishment of an intelligent manufacturing base for material automation processing equipment [1][3]. Company Information - The company focuses on automated material handling solutions, including material automatic batching, dispersion emulsification, and mixing [3]. - The company plans to issue no more than 91.715 million shares [3]. - The actual controller of the company, Lu Haodong, holds 85.27% of the shares [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 618.54 million yuan, 1.72058 billion yuan, and 2.17342 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The net profit for the same years was 95.35 million yuan, 242.44 million yuan, and 298.95 million yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the main business was 16.48%, 27.80%, and 28.78% for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [4]. Industry Context - The company operates in a sector benefiting from the rapid growth of the global new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, which has significantly increased the demand for lithium batteries [4]. - Major clients include leading lithium battery manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, and LG Energy [4]. Risks and Challenges - The company acknowledges the risk of the actual controller potentially harming the interests of the company and minority shareholders [3]. - The equipment industry is cyclical, and a slowdown in the lithium battery sector could impact future growth if new clients are not developed [4]. - The company faces uncertainties in product delivery and acceptance due to the complexity and customization of its equipment [5]. - High customer concentration poses a risk, with the top five clients accounting for 86.87%, 81.67%, and 74.27% of revenue in the respective years [5][6]. - Quality control is critical, as any significant quality issues could harm the company's reputation and operations [6]. - The company has a substantial amount of inventory, which poses risks related to capital efficiency and potential write-downs [6].

多重因素影响工业企业利润下降。 1 — 5 月份，规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，比 1 — 4 月份增加 6034.1 亿元，但是受有效需求不足、工业品价格下降 及短期因素波动等多重因素影响，同比下降 1.1% 。从利润构成看，投资收益等短期因素的 上年同期基数较高，下拉 1 — 5 月份规上工业企业利润增速 1.7 个百分点。 工业企业毛利润、营收保持增长。 1 — 5 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比虽然有所下 降，但从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度看，规上工业企业毛利润同比增长 1.1% ，拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长 3.0 个百分点。从营业收入看， 1 — 5 月份，规模以上工 业企业营业收入同比增长 2.7% ，工业企业营收持续保持增长态势，为企业下阶段盈利恢复 创造有利条件。 装备制造业"压舱石"作用凸显。 工业经济转型升级持续推进，装备制造业效益保持较高 水平， 1 — 5 月份，装备制造业利润同比增长 7.2% ，拉动全部规模以上工业利润增长 2.4 个百分点，对规模以上工业利润支撑作用突出。从行业看，装备制造业的 8 个行业中，有 7 个行业利润实现增长，其中，电 ...

Core Insights - In the first five months of the year, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 603.4 billion yuan compared to the previous four months, but saw a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1][3] - The cumulative profit of large-scale industrial enterprises showed a recovery trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in January-March and 1.4% in April [3] - The overall revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 54.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while operating costs rose by 3% to 46.88 trillion yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 4.97%, down by 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Composition - The profit composition indicates that investment income and other short-term factors from the previous year had a high base, which dragged down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [1] - The gross profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profits [4] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the mining industry saw a profit decline of 29% to 358.04 billion yuan, while the manufacturing sector's profits increased by 5.4% to 20,201.4 billion yuan, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 3.7% to 3,422.5 billion yuan [3][5] - Notably, the agricultural and food processing industry experienced a profit increase of 38.2%, while the automotive manufacturing sector faced a significant decline of 11.9% [5] Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector demonstrated strong performance, with profits increasing by 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industries [5] - Among the eight industries within equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment showing double-digit growth rates [5] High-Quality Development - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced a remarkable profit increase of 56% due to rapid development in the "three aviation" sectors [6] - Policies promoting equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement have positively impacted profits in related sectors, with significant growth in smart consumer devices and kitchen appliances [6] Future Outlook - The focus for the next phase will be on implementing proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation, enhance innovation, and promote high-quality industrial development, laying a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise profits [6]

Group 1 - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China for January to May was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with May alone seeing a profit drop of 9.1% [1][3] - The decline in industrial profits is attributed to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and fluctuations in short-term factors [1][3] - Despite the overall profit decline, the gross profit of industrial enterprises increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in total profits [1][3] Group 2 - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises showed profit growth of 3.4% and 0.3% respectively, outperforming the average level of all industrial enterprises [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector demonstrated strong performance with a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [3][4] - Several industries within equipment manufacturing, such as electronics and electrical machinery, reported profit growth exceeding 10% [3][4] Group 3 - The "Two New" policies have effectively stimulated domestic demand, leading to significant profit increases in general and specialized equipment manufacturing [4] - The consumer goods sector benefited from policies promoting the replacement of old products, with profit growth in smart consumer devices reaching 101.5% [4] - Future industrial profit growth is expected to improve due to supportive policies aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency in key industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.0% increase in the previous month. For the period from January to May, profits fell by 1.1% compared to a 1.4% increase from January to April, indicating a significant decline in industrial profitability due to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - The total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 603.4 billion yuan in the first five months compared to the previous four months, despite the year-on-year decline [1]. - The gross profit margin, calculated by deducting operating costs from operating income, showed a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits for large-scale industrial enterprises [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector maintained a high level of profitability, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year from January to May, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [2]. - Among the eight industries within equipment manufacturing, seven experienced profit growth, with notable increases in the electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment sectors, achieving growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. Group 3: Aerospace and Related Industries - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw rapid development, leading to a 56.0% year-on-year profit increase in the railway, shipping, and aerospace sectors. Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [4]. - General and specialized equipment sectors also reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [4]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation and promote high-quality industrial development, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise profits [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 200 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support equipment upgrades, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan allocated to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [5]. - The continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption policy is expected to positively impact industrial profits, with significant profit growth observed in smart consumer devices and home appliances [4].

Core Insights - In the first five months, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.1% despite an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the first four months [1] Group 1: Profit Trends - The profit of industrial enterprises decreased year-on-year due to multiple factors including insufficient effective demand, declining industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1] - Although the total profit declined, the gross profit calculated by deducting operating costs from operating income increased by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits for industrial enterprises [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy has shown continuous effects, with various regions and departments intensifying efforts to implement the policy, effectively releasing domestic demand vitality [1] - Under the influence of large-scale equipment renewal policies, the profits of the general equipment and specialized equipment industries increased by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, collectively contributing 0.6 percentage points to the growth of profits for industrial enterprises above designated size [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The next phase will focus on thoroughly implementing the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee and the State Council, adopting more proactive macro policies, strengthening domestic circulation, enhancing innovation-driven development, and solidifying the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise efficiency [1]

1—5月份规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.7万亿元 ——国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—5月份工业企业利润数据 1—5月份，规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.72万亿元，同比有所下降，呈现以下特点： "上天入海"尽显工业高质量发展活力。1—5月份，我国航天、航空、航海等"三航"产业快速发展， 带动铁路船舶航空航天行业利润同比增长56.0%。其中，在国产大飞机成功商业运营两周年、载人月球 探测工程登月阶段任务启动以及商业航天企业不断取得新成果推动下，飞机制造、航天器及运载火箭制 造等行业利润分别增长120.7%、28.6%，同时带动航空航天相关设备制造行业利润增长68.1%。在海洋 经济大力发展背景下，船舶及相关装置制造行业利润增长85.0%，其中金属船舶制造利润增长111.8%， 相关的船用配套设备制造、海洋工程装备制造利润分别增长63.2%、15.4%。 "两新"政策效应持续显现。1—5月份，各地区各有关部门加大力度推动"两新"政策落地实施，有效 释放内需活力。在大规模设备更新相关政策带动下，通用设备、专用设备行业利润同比分别增长 10.6%、7.1%，合计拉动规模以上工业利润增长0.6个百分点 ...