Group 1 - The energy sector is currently the worst performer in the S&P 500, with Civitas Resources Inc. (NYSE: CIVI) down by 33% year-to-date [1] - Despite the poor performance, there is a belief that Civitas Resources Inc. can end the year in positive territory [1] - The focus is on identifying strongly undervalued stocks within various sectors and geographies [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in business studies from France, the U.S., and Russia, and is a professional portfolio manager based in Luxembourg [1] - The author operates as a Popular Investor on the eToro platform, where investment opinions and decisions are publicly displayed [1]

Hydrogen Energy Opportunity - Baker Hughes 作为设备和技术供应商，在氢能源领域扮演关键角色，提供压缩机、涡轮机等设备 [1] - Baker Hughes 已经拥有氢能源燃气轮机和压缩技术，应用于 NEOM 等氢能源设施 [1] - 氢能源将成为未来能源结构的一部分 [2] - 沙特阿拉伯正在大力投资氢能源，预计将在氢能源扩张中发挥重要作用 [2] Market Outlook - 氢能源发展需要时间 [2]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corp is experiencing a pullback from its record high, but still maintains a strong year-to-date performance and potential for recovery due to bullish signals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - EQT Corp is currently down 1.5% at $54.06, following a peak of $61.02 on June 23 [1]. - The stock has a year-to-date gain of 17.4%, with support at $52 likely to mitigate further losses [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - EQT is within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average, having traded above this trendline in at least eight of the last ten trading days [2]. - Historically, similar conditions have led to a 60% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 7.1% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are exhibiting bearish sentiment, as indicated by a put/call open interest ratio of 1.36, ranking in the 92nd percentile of annual readings [3]. - A potential unwinding of this pessimism could provide additional support for EQT's stock [3]. Group 4: Options Market - Options are currently seen as an affordable strategy for investors looking to capitalize on EQT's future movements, with a Volatility Index of 33% in the 9th percentile of its annual range [4]. - This low volatility expectation suggests that options traders are anticipating minimal price fluctuations in the near term [4].

All of the staff have departed from WaveCrest Energy, a Macquarie-backed company near Houston launched to develop liquefied natural gas import projects abroad https://t.co/Iw3sbYQ5ec ...

Malaysian energy company Petronas has signed a new 20-year deal for liquefied natural gas supply from Venture Global, marking a significant sales and purchase agreement for the US exporter https://t.co/ntZNZbkRiF ...

BlackRock is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant https://t.co/N6JTqTSWhM ...

Core Insights - The energy sector is currently viewed as significantly undervalued compared to the technology sector, which is considered overvalued [2] - Canadian Natural Resources is highlighted as a particularly undervalued company within the energy sector, especially in the Canadian market [2] Company Insights - Canadian Natural Resources is identified as a defensive stock with potential for medium- to long-term investment [2] - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in Canadian Natural Resources, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [3]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has shifted its investment strategy towards the tech sector, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) [1][2] - As of now, two major AI companies represent approximately 22% of Berkshire's $279 billion public stock holdings [2] Group 1: Apple Inc. - Apple stock constitutes 21.2% of Berkshire's portfolio, making it the largest holding [5] - Berkshire has reduced its position in Apple significantly, selling 605 million shares over the past year and 10 million shares in Q4 2023, down from a peak of 915 million shares [4][5] - Concerns have arisen regarding Apple's performance in the AI sector, especially compared to competitors like Nvidia and Microsoft, which have seen substantial demand for their AI products [7] - Apple's iPhone remains the primary revenue driver, but the introduction of the Apple Intelligence software has not significantly impacted sales, particularly in China where regulatory challenges hindered the iPhone 16 launch [8][9] Group 2: Amazon.com Inc. - Amazon represents a small portion of Berkshire's portfolio at just 0.7%, but it holds significant potential due to its leading position in the cloud services market with a 30% share [10] - The company plans to invest over $100 billion in its AI platform in 2025, launching numerous features to cater to a wide range of clients [11] - Amazon's CEO has emphasized the ongoing shift from on-premises IT spending to cloud services, positioning the company to benefit from this transition [13] - With its extensive opportunities in AI, Amazon is poised to potentially become the largest company by sales and market cap in the near future [14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued expectation of USD weakness, suggesting a favorable environment for US multinational companies, particularly large caps, due to their foreign revenue exposure [5][82]. Core Insights - The report posits that the USD's weakening trend is at an intermission, with a projected net decline of 20% expected [3][8]. - A weaker USD is viewed as a significant, underappreciated tailwind for US equity earnings, especially for large-cap companies that derive a substantial portion of their revenue from foreign markets [5][82]. - The report highlights that the USD remains at the upper end of historical ranges, and pro-cyclicality from hedging and index rebalancing are important amplifying factors [5][7]. Summary by Sections USD Weakness and Economic Implications - The report forecasts that USD weakness will persist, driven by a convergence in US rates to global peers and increased risk premiums from FX hedging [5][6]. - Limited economic impact from recent USD weakness is noted, but further depreciation could push headline CPI and GDP, with an estimated increase of 5 basis points to CPI and GDP for every 1% depreciation [5][63]. FX Hedging and Corporate Exposure - FX hedges significantly impact a company's ultimate USD exposure, but limited disclosures complicate forecasting [5][96]. - The report emphasizes the importance of subjective data from earnings calls to understand corporate currency policies and hedging strategies [44][96]. Sector and Industry Analysis - The report identifies sectors with high foreign revenue exposure, including Tech, Materials, and Industrials, as key beneficiaries of dollar weakness [88][89]. - It highlights that larger companies, such as those in the S&P 500, earn approximately 40% of their revenue abroad, positioning them to benefit more from a weaker dollar [84][82]. Trade Ideas - Specific trade ideas are provided, including maintaining long positions in EUR/USD and short positions in USD/JPY and USD/TRY, reflecting the anticipated continued weakness of the USD [7].

Fusion Energy Investment - Google's long-term bet on fusion energy through partnership with CFS_energy [1] - Largest direct corporate purchase for fusion energy [1] - New investment to help CFS prove out their promising technology and move it closer to commercialization [1]