证券研究报告 隆平高科 (000998 CH) 25Q1 业绩承压，关注新销售季表现 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 种植业 | 隆平高科发布年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 85.66 亿元 （yoy-7.13%），归母净利 1.14 亿元（yoy-43.08%），扣非净利-2.89 亿元 （ yoy-159.31% ）。 其 中 Q4 实 现 营 收 56.85 亿 元 （ yoy-2.91% ， qoq+1801.10%），归母净利 5.89 亿元（yoy-24.31%，qoq+200.44%）。 25Q1 实现营收 14.1 亿元，同比下滑 32%，归母净利润-0.02 亿元，同比 转亏。25Q1 归母净利润低于我们此前 0.65~0.75 亿元的预期，主系种子 发货进度不及预期影响。公司品种优势突出，看好 2025/26 年度业绩弹性， 维持"买入"评级。 24A 玉米种子营收及盈利承压，水稻种子表现亮眼 整体来看，国内与全球玉米价格景气下行拖累公司营收及盈利表现。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term disturbances from trade tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while short-term trade tensions may impact certain agricultural products, the long-term outlook remains manageable through diversification of import sources and enhancing self-sufficiency [6][14]. - The Chinese agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" which emphasizes food security and agricultural competitiveness [6][14]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions - Recent data shows that the proportion of agricultural imports from the U.S. has decreased, with 2024 imports from the U.S. accounting for approximately 6.3% of total imports, down from 8.3% in 2017 [6][14]. - The report notes that most agricultural products have low import dependency, while a few, such as soybeans and sorghum, are more reliant on imports, particularly from the U.S. [6][14]. Meat Products - China is a major producer of pork, with a projected production of 57 million tons in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of global production [18][20]. - The report anticipates a recovery in China's pig production capacity in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate, initially declining before rising later in the year [39][40]. - Chicken production in China is projected to reach 15.5 million tons in 2025, with low import dependency, particularly from the U.S. [41][46]. Grain Products - China ranks second globally in corn production, with a projected output of 294.92 million tons in 2024/25, while maintaining a low import dependency [75][78]. - The report indicates that corn prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices reaching 2285.29 yuan per ton as of April 2025 [79][80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the agricultural sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [6][14].

基金研究 | 基金专题报告 2025 年 04 月 29 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-大模型总结 和解读行业研报（ 2025W17 ）》 2025-04-28 2 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报：全 A 指数 30 日均线构成压力位》 2025-04-27 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 4.31%》 2025-04-27 基金研究 证券研究报告 关税反制背景下，粮食安全重要性凸显。我国是世界粮食进口大国，美国 则是我国大豆、小麦和玉米等农产品的重要进口来源地。从贸易结构上， 据海关总署统计数据显示，2024 年我国自美国进口粮食总量为 3179 万吨， 近几年中国从美国进口的粮食量总体呈下降趋势，2024 年我国进口粮食总 量为 15753 万吨，我国自美国进口的粮食总量占我国进口粮食总量的 20.2%，同比 2023 年下降 1.3 个百分点。据中国海关总署数据，美国玉米、 大豆、高粱在中国该类别的进口量中占比分别由 2021 年的 69.9%、33.4% ...

大北农发布年报，2024 年实现营收287.67 亿元（yoy-13.85%），归母净利3.46 亿元（yoy+115.91%）， 扣非净利2.21 亿元（yoy+111.02%）。其中Q4 实现营收86.25 亿元（yoy-8.81%，qoq+22.39%），归母 净利2.12 亿元（yoy+116.78%，qoq-26.63%）。2024 年盈利低于我们此前4.0 亿元的预期，主系Q4 饲料 盈利略低于预期所致。公司养猪成本持续优化，中长期转基因种业或贡献较高业绩增量。维持"买入"评 级。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到当前生猪供应仍较为充分，我们下调25-26 年猪价预测进而下调公司盈利预测至7.3/5.0 亿元（下 调幅度34%、69%）；新增27 年盈利预测10.0亿元。可比公司2025 年Wind 一致预期PE 均值为17 倍， 考虑公司养殖成本持续优化，转基因性状优势突出，给予公司25 年30 倍PE，目标价5.12元（前值5.56 元），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：转基因品种推广进度或效果/种业监管力度/猪价表现不及预期等。 猪价回升叠加成本优化，2024 年公司实现扭亏饲料及动保业务营收同比下滑为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rice seed industry is experiencing growth against the trend, with profit performance exceeding expectations; the domestic corn seed industry maintains its leading advantage and demonstrates operational resilience; the overseas corn seed industry may encounter a transformative turning point and is expected to benefit from changes in the international trade landscape, leading to market expansion opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Rice Seed Industry - The rice seed sector achieved a revenue increase of 13% in 2024, driven by the large-scale promotion of core rice varieties, resulting in a net profit of 340 million yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 8.566 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 43% [1]. Group 2: Corn Seed Industry - The domestic corn seed industry generated revenue of 2.121 billion yuan despite high inventory pressures, showcasing strong operational resilience [1]. - The overseas corn seed business faced challenges due to falling international grain prices and extreme weather, leading to stable sales but a decline in sales revenue to 2.9 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32%, and a net profit of -2.09 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop in sales volume due to increased market competition and supply [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The domestic hybrid rice seed industry is entering a destocking phase starting in 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in the rice seed market [2]. - The company’s operational capabilities are expected to improve, potentially leading to high-quality profit growth [2]. - The company maintains a strong investment rating, projecting net profits of 432 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 859 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with diluted EPS of 0.33, 0.46, and 0.65 yuan respectively [3].

Group 1: Clean Energy Development - The city of Maerkang aims to accelerate the development of 12 million kilowatts of water, wind, and solar energy resources, with a total clean energy installed capacity expected to exceed 8.5 million kilowatts by 2030 [1] - Current projects include the construction of the Shuangjiangkou, Bala Hydropower Station, and Dazang Photovoltaic projects, with an expected 3.006 million kilowatts of installed capacity to be put into operation this year [1] - Maerkang has significant potential for clean energy development, with 75% of its resources still untapped [1] Group 2: Lithium Resource Development - Maerkang is focusing on the development of clean energy and lithium mineral resources as key strategies for high-quality development [1] - The Daba Lithium Mine in Maerkang is the first lithium oxide resource in Sichuan with over one million tons and the largest proven resource in Asia [1] - The city is advancing local processing and transformation of lithium resources, with the launch of a 200,000 tons/year lithium salt project by Guocheng Lithium Industry [1] Group 3: Agricultural Development - Maerkang is integrating into the national seed industry landscape by establishing the "Summer Breeding Aba, South Breeding Sanya" crop breeding brand [2] - The Tianfu Summer Breeding (Maerkang) Modern Seed Industry Park is set to open in April 2024, marking a significant node in Sichuan's seed industry development plan [2] - The seed industry park has a core area of 700 acres and hosts over 20 research teams from institutions like the Provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Sichuan Agricultural University [2] Group 4: Urban Development and Infrastructure - As the capital of Aba Prefecture, Maerkang is tasked with the mission of becoming a highland city, focusing on urban renewal and infrastructure improvement [2] - The city has demolished a total of 146,900 square meters of old urban areas to address urban congestion and enhance the urban landscape [2] - In 2024, Maerkang will be included in the Beautiful China construction practice case, indicating a gradual increase in urban vitality and reputation [3]

山东港口青岛港前湾集装箱码头。 韩加君摄（人民视觉） 数据来源：国家统计局、国家知识产权局、交通运输部 四川成都市双流区黄水镇，95后新农人对小麦进行植保作 业。 李向雨摄（新华社发） 数据来源：国家统计局、国家知识产权局、交通运输部 4月24日，搭载神舟二十号载人飞船的长征二号F遥二十 运载火箭在酒泉卫星发射中心发射升空。 新华社记者 李 鑫摄 青年兴则国家兴，中国发展要靠广大青年挺膺担当。面对复杂严峻的外部环境，广大青年坚定信心、保 持定力，集中精力办好自己的事，不断增强做中国人的志气、骨气、底气，树立为祖国为人民永久奋 斗、赤诚奉献的坚定理想。本期报道，我们聚焦来自不同行业奋战在各自岗位的青年人，展现他们自信 自强、刚健有为，为中国式现代化挺膺担当的信念与风采。 ——编 者 青年企业家李承： 研算法，成果越研越新 9点，到研发实验室与技术团队探讨实验要点；11点，与生产基地对接业务……江苏苏州聚维元创生物 科技有限公司联合创始人李承的时间表排得满满当当。 杨铭轩是南方电网储能公司检修试验分公司自动化检修部总经理。2021年初，他接到任务，带领团队研 制全国产化抽水蓄能核心控制系统。 "长期以来，这套系统 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].

登海种业（002041）公告，2025年第一季度营业收入1.63亿元，同比下降30.04%。净利润2459.77万 元，同比下降18.37%。 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 28 日 转基因作物推广加速，未来大有可为 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 2025 年，我国转基因玉米产业迎来关键发展节点。农业农村部于 4 月 8 日公示初审通过的 99 个转基 因玉米、大豆品种，彰显我国转基因技术推广决心，呼应中央一号文件中"发展农业新质生产力"号召。 转基因玉米作为试点作物，其应用前景与推广趋势备受瞩目。全球转基因作物种植面积自 1996 年商 业化元年起稳健增长，2023 年达 2.06 亿公顷，美国、巴西等国处于领先地位。我国转基因玉米发展历经 起步、审慎推进到产业化突破等阶段，审批流程严谨规范。转基因技术有望显著提升我国玉米单产，目前 平均增产幅度可达 9%左右。 种子定价及成本影响方面，转基因种子虽有溢价，但其降低农药使用、提高产量的效益可为农户创造 更高经济价值。2025 年转基因玉米推广面积预计达 4500 万-5000 万亩，种植省份将增至 13 个，渗透率 初步估算为 6%-7.7%，后续有望快速提升。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 ...