行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 产能去化逐步显现，10 月全国能繁降至 4000 万 头以下 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：产能去化逐步显现，10 月全国能繁降至 4000 万头以下。 （1）本周猪价先抑后扬，整体小幅走低。周初多家集团场维持增量出栏节 奏，价格整体承压。进入周中后期，随着气温持续下降，终端基础消费有 所回暖，同时南方部分区域的腌腊、灌肠等需求活动零星开启，对猪肉消 费形成提振，推动周后期猪价窄幅偏强运行。11 月 21 日猪价 11.62 元/公 斤，周环比-0.04 元/公斤。（2）本周生猪出栏均重继续回升。气温下降促 使猪只日增重提升，加之集团场维持增量出栏节奏，共同带动集团场均重 回升；由于散养户及二次育肥户出栏积极性提高，市场中大体重猪源增多， 进而推动散养户均重增长。截至 11 月 20 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.81kg， 周环比+0.33kg。展望后市，近期养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产能调控政策 推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质 猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国 ...

生猪产能去化或加速，宠物内销增长亮眼 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.11.23 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -8% -2% 5% 11% 17% 23% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 王聪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525110001 wangcong@ctsec.com 分析师 肖珮菁 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070005 xiaopj@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《宠物双十一国产品牌表现亮眼》 2025-11-16 2. 《生猪供应仍存压力，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-09 3. 《生猪养殖持续亏损，产能去化或加速》 2025-11-02 农业重点数据跟踪周报 核心观点 | 表 1：重点公司投资评级 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 公司 | 总市值（亿 | 收盘价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE | | 投资评级 | | | | 元） | （11.21） | 2024 ...

实验室作为科学的摇篮，是科研人员解决生物医用材料关键科学问题、突破核心技术、提升成果转化力必不可少的研究基地，而科学仪器又 是科研人员在实验室进行科学研究必不可少的工具。为此，仪器信息网特汇总分析了生物育种领域实验室的仪器设备明细，并推出生物育种 领域实验室高频配置仪器清单，供读者参考。 生物育种实验室主要仪器配置清单 （ 其 中 部 分 仪 器 来 自 上 述 实 验 室 公 共 仪 器 平 台 以 及 近 一 年 采购 ） 摘要 ： 为此，仪器信息网特汇总分析了生物育种领域实验室的仪器设备明细，并推出生物育种领域实验室高频配置仪器清单，供读者参考。 特别提示 微信机制调整，点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 种子是农业的"芯片"， 生物育种是 打造种业"芯片"的关键之 一 。根据我国"十 五 五" ， 规划明确 "发展生物育种、生物制药" 。 我国 确立了生物育种优先发展战略，以加快实施生物育种重大科技计划。在当前形势下，全方位筑牢粮食安全的根基、强化农业科技和装备的支 撑作用、加速推进生物育种的原始创新以及产业化应用，是打赢种业翻身仗的关键举措。 ...

特别提示 微信机制调整，点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 生物育种是现代农业高质量发展的核心驱动力，也是国家重点布局的战略方向，其技术创新与新品种突破对产业升级至关重要。在种植业领 域，它可提升作物产量、优化品质并增强抗性；在水产与畜禽养殖业领域，能改善品种特性、提高饲喂转化效率，同时强化抗病能力与环境适 应性。 安捷伦以生物育种行业需求为核心，依托丰富的产品与应用方案提供综合服务，并通过深化客户合作，持续研发迭代方案以突破技术瓶颈。 本次会议特邀两位行业专家与安捷伦资深专家，分享生物育种最新研究进展。诚邀您云端参会，共探生物育种技术新方向。 报名成功，添加小助手wljt smk x好友，备注"育种"领取最新《安捷伦生物育种整体解决方案》。 | 200 100 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 生物育种的基因组学解决方案 | ട് | | 用于分子育种的核酸及蛋白片段分析 | 5 | | 用于分子育种的文库和探针工具 | 6 | | 应用案例 | 7 | | 生物育种的代谢组学解决方案 | 10 | | 代謝组学全流程解决方案 | 10 | ...

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively rose, with the agriculture sector showing significant gains, as evidenced by the 0.73% increase in the China Securities Agriculture Index [1] - A new agriculture-focused ETF, Tianhong (512620), is set to launch on November 21, tracking the China Securities Agriculture Index and covering sectors such as breeding and agrochemicals, featuring leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 13 to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and self-sufficiency in seed technology [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities highlights that the revitalization of the seed industry is crucial for advancing new agricultural productivity, with significant breakthroughs in biotechnology expected to reshape the industry landscape [2] - Guoxin Securities anticipates that by 2026, leading companies in the pig and poultry breeding chains will strengthen, shifting investment focus from capital expenditure to cash flow generation [2] - The official capacity regulation is expected to enhance cash flow for leading enterprises in the pig industry, while the poultry sector is projected to see limited supply fluctuations, benefiting from demand recovery [2]

Core Insights - The implementation of four action plans has achieved full coverage of 19 iconic industrial chains in Shandong Province, focusing on technological innovation in key industries [1] Group 1: Robotics Industry - The robotics industry will leverage the strategic opportunity of integrating robotics technology with artificial intelligence, focusing on key components, software systems, and complete machine manufacturing [2] - The plan aims to develop advanced servo motors, operating system software, and special robots, while expanding application scenarios across various sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and healthcare [2] - The goal is to create 100 representative benchmark application scenarios, positioning Shandong as a national hub for robotics technology innovation [2] Group 2: Modern Food Industry - The modern food industry will emphasize safety, nutrition, green, and intelligent development, addressing the entire supply chain from raw materials to processing equipment [2] - A technical system will be established for food safety, including traceability, quality control, and green packaging, enhancing consumer safety and satisfaction [2] - The industry aims to create over 100 innovative products, significantly increasing the added value of modern food [2] Group 3: Light Industry and Textiles - The light industry and textiles sector will focus on high-end, green, and intelligent development, enhancing low-carbon production processes and advanced product development [3] - Innovations will include multifunctional advanced fiber products and high-end medical textiles, as well as new paper products for specialized applications [3] Group 4: Modern Metallurgy Industry - The modern metallurgy industry will accelerate the development of high-end raw materials and precision processing technologies, targeting products like ultra-high-strength steel and marine aluminum alloys [3] - The focus will also be on developing frontier materials such as rare earth functional materials and special magnesium and titanium alloys to capture future industry opportunities [3] Group 5: Implementation Measures - The four action plans propose specific measures for promoting innovation resources, building innovation platforms, and ensuring the transformation of scientific achievements [3] - The provincial science and technology department will implement policies to inject new momentum into the construction of a modern industrial system [4]

Core Insights - Bayer Crop Science is leveraging the China International Import Expo (CIIE) as a significant platform to showcase innovations and deepen local collaborations, presenting 7 "China debuts" and 8 "CIIE debuts" this year [1][2] - The company sees great potential in China's agricultural market, particularly in the biotechnology corn seed sector, which is expected to further unlock market value and opportunities [1][2] Group 1: Innovation and Product Development - Bayer is committed to enhancing agricultural productivity through innovation, addressing challenges such as soil issues and pest outbreaks driven by climate change [1][7] - The company has established a supply chain in China, including a production center in Hangzhou and an innovation center in Danyang, to support localized and customized agricultural solutions [3] - Bayer's CropKey initiative utilizes AI and computational modeling to accelerate the development of crop protection products, aiming to introduce ten major innovative products in the next decade [6] Group 2: Market Environment and Policy - The Chinese government is actively improving the business environment for foreign enterprises, which is beneficial for companies like Bayer, as highlighted by recent engagements with agricultural authorities [4] - The implementation of the new Seed Law in 2022 has strengthened variety rights protection, fostering a more conducive environment for seed industry innovation [4][5] - Bayer anticipates further enhancements in intellectual property protection within the seed sector, which is crucial for industry growth and innovation [4] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The agricultural sector in China faces the dual challenge of ensuring food security while pursuing sustainable development, which presents both risks and opportunities for innovation [7][8] - There is a growing demand from farmers for specialized and customized solutions, alongside increasing consumer expectations for the quality and safety of agricultural products [8] - Bayer aims to support the cultivation of new agricultural productivity through product innovation and local partnerships, focusing on enhancing farmers' resilience and profitability [8]

Core Insights - Bayer Crop Science is leveraging the China International Import Expo (CIIE) as a significant platform to showcase innovations and deepen local collaborations, presenting 7 "China premieres" and 8 "CIIE premieres" this year [1][2] - The company emphasizes the importance of agricultural technology in addressing challenges posed by climate change and soil issues, driving the industry towards innovation and sustainable development [1][7] - Bayer sees substantial market potential in China's agricultural sector, particularly in the biotechnology corn seed market, which is expected to further unlock value and opportunities [2][5] Company Strategy - Bayer has established a comprehensive supply chain in China, including a production supply center in Hangzhou and an innovation center in Danyang, to support localized and customized agricultural needs [3] - The Hangzhou supply center, with an investment exceeding 300 million RMB, is set to enhance the distribution of Bayer's innovative agricultural products across China and Asia [3] - Bayer's joint venture, Zhongzhong International Seed Co., has invested significantly in local corn seed research and development, with an average annual R&D investment of nearly 15% of sales over the past 20 years [3] Market Environment - The Chinese government is actively improving the business environment for foreign enterprises, as evidenced by recent engagements between Bayer's global leadership and Chinese agricultural authorities [4] - The new Seed Law implemented in 2022 aims to strengthen variety rights protection, which is expected to foster innovation in the seed industry [4] - Bayer anticipates further enhancements in intellectual property protection within the seed sector, which will support the overall innovation ecosystem [4] Technological Innovation - Bayer is utilizing AI and computational modeling to accelerate the development of crop protection products, significantly shortening the R&D cycle [6] - The company plans to introduce ten major innovative products over the next decade, focusing on increasing yields while promoting environmental sustainability [6][8] - The integration of digital technologies in agriculture is expected to meet the growing demand for specialized and customized solutions from farmers [8] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The agricultural sector faces dual pressures of ensuring food security and achieving sustainable development, presenting both challenges and opportunities for innovation [7][8] - The demand for high-quality, safe agricultural products is rising, prompting a shift towards efficient, low-toxicity crop protection solutions [8] - Bayer aims to support farmers in enhancing their resilience and productivity through innovative products and local partnerships, aligning with the vision of promoting regenerative agriculture [8]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [70]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply pressure in the pig farming sector, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. As of November 7, the average pig price was 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week, indicating a shift towards heavier pigs being sold [2][10][30]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef in 2026-2027. The price of calves as of November 7 was 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date [3][32]. - The poultry sector is experiencing stable yet declining prices for meat chickens, with the average price for white feathered meat chickens at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7. The egg price is slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg, indicating potential recovery in the egg market as downstream production decreases [4][40][45]. - The agricultural sector is seeing a strong performance in soybean meal prices due to changes in import tariffs on U.S. soybeans, with the spot price at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is expected to support a strong trend in soybean meal prices moving forward [4][53]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply pressure continues, leading to a decline in pig prices. The average pig price as of November 7 is 11.85 CNY/kg, down 0.69 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs sold has increased to 128.30 kg, up 0.61 kg week-on-week [2][10][30]. - The report notes that the market is transitioning to sporadic replenishment as the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly [10][30]. Beef Industry - Short-term prices for beef are slightly declining, with calf prices at 31.93 CNY/kg, down 0.53% week-on-week, but up 32.43% year-to-date. The market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, leading to a potential price increase cycle in 2026-2027 [3][32]. Poultry Sector - The average price for white feathered meat chickens is stable at 7.09 CNY/kg, while egg prices are slightly up at 6.22 CNY/kg. The report suggests that the poultry sector may benefit from a recovery in consumption as production decreases [4][40][45]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is expected to remain strong due to tariff changes on U.S. soybeans, with current prices at 3094 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week. This is anticipated to support a bullish trend in soybean meal prices [4][53].