证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 08 月 26 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250826 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要宽基指数多数调整。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.39%， 收报 3868.38 点；深证成指涨 0.26%，收报 12473.17 点；创业板指跌 0.76%， 收报 2742.13 点；科创 50 跌 1.31%，收报 1270.87 点。总体上全天个股涨跌 各半，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2802 只个股上涨，2469 只个股下跌，152 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 26790 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 4621 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨跌各半，农林牧渔、美容护理、基础化 工、传媒和综合行业领涨，涨幅分别为 2.62%、2.04%、1.26%、1.23%、1.09%； 医药生物、非银金融、钢铁、国防军工和通信行业领跌，跌幅分别为 1.09%、 1.06%、0.98%、0.93%、0.79% 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为 ...

4、禽板块：白鸡&蛋鸡重视引种缺口；黄鸡重视消费需求边际改善！1）重视白鸡基本面，关注引种边际变化！ ①祖代鸡引种不确定性犹存。考虑到2015 年法国因禽流感封关后，我国已有近10 年未从法国引种，叠加现阶段全 球禽流感及美国关税预期，我们预计今年祖代鸡更新将呈现总量下降及品种结构变化。②本周鸡苗价格稳定、毛鸡 价格小幅震荡。③投资建议：行业磨底已持续 3年，产能收缩意愿增加；当前海外引种持续受扰动，重视引种数量 和结构变化，前瞻布局行情景气反转；建议重视自主育种崛起机会以及掌握引种替代资源的白羽鸡龙头。首推【圣 农发展】，建议关注【益生股份】、【民和股份】、【禾丰股份】、【仙坛股份】等。2）黄鸡：供给或现收缩，核 心变量在需求。①产能处于较低区间，但仍在 2018 年以来的较低区间。②台风过境未阻涨价势头，续养及消费渠 道增量明显，其中快、中、慢速类全国均价分别为5.42元/斤、6.34元/斤、7.62元/斤，环比+0.3/ +0.3/ +0.36 元/ 斤（8 月11 日-8 月17 日）。③投资建议：价格筑底或已完成，需求边际改善有望带动价格触底回升。随着黄鸡消 费下半年高于上半年的特性，我们认为黄羽鸡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科) reported a revenue of 2.166 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a non-net profit loss of 157 million yuan, marking a year-on-year reduction in losses by 39.13% [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company achieved stable revenue of 779 million yuan from rice seeds, with a net profit increase of 4% year-on-year [2] - The corn business generated nearly 1 billion yuan in revenue, with the Brazilian corn segment significantly reducing losses by 59.13% [3] - The Brazilian corn business reported revenue of 868 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.11% (14% when adjusted for last year's exchange rate) [3] Group 2: Research and Development - Longping High-Tech invested 280 million yuan in R&D, achieving breakthroughs in breeding technologies for rice, corn, and wheat [4] - The company made significant progress in rice parent creation, with 47.8% of trial combinations being dual-resistant recovery lines [4] - The company registered 11 new corn varieties and 5 sorghum varieties in Brazil, expanding planting areas due to their disease resistance and high yield characteristics [4] Group 3: Management and Financial Health - The company completed a private placement raising 1.2 billion yuan from its major shareholder, significantly reducing interest-bearing liabilities by 726 million yuan [7] - Operating cash flow increased by 52.66% year-on-year, and the asset-liability ratio decreased by 6.46% since the beginning of the year [7] - Financial expenses decreased by approximately 17.33% due to reduced interest-bearing liabilities and favorable loan rates [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to capitalize on opportunities in low-cadmium rice varieties and rapid growth of key new varieties to strengthen its leading position in the rice industry [8] - The domestic corn business is expected to enhance its competitive advantage due to the opportunities in the bio-breeding industry [8] - The Brazilian corn segment is anticipated to benefit from the growth of the ethanol industry and diversified demand for Chinese agricultural products, leading to increased seed and grain sales and prices [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][86] Core Views - In July, pig farming companies experienced a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a reduction in average weight continuing. The total number of pigs slaughtered by 18 companies was 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average price of pigs has shown a slight rebound, with the national average price on August 15 being 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs slaughtered also saw a slight increase [21][29] - The poultry sector is experiencing mixed trends, with broiler prices stabilizing after a previous increase, while chick prices remain high. The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, up 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week [48][51] - The demand for eggs is expected to grow seasonally, with the average price of eggs at 6.40 yuan/kg from August 11 to August 14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - July saw a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a total of 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% and a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in July was 128.59 kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.01 kg [18][21] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 14.65 yuan/kg in July, a month-on-month increase of 1.90% [18][21] - The industry is under pressure from supply increases, with expectations of a 5.26% to 7.01% increase in slaughter numbers in August [43] Poultry Sector - Broiler prices have stabilized after previous increases, with the average price at 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.06 yuan/kg [48][51] - Chick prices remain high, with the average price at 3.58 yuan per chick, up 0.45 yuan week-on-week [48] - The demand for eggs is expected to rise seasonally, with the average price at 6.40 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have increased, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3137 yuan/ton on August 15, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan/ton [64] - The current market conditions are influenced by USDA reports and trade policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [64]

Core Insights - The 31st National Soybean Research and Production Seminar was held from August 16 to 18, focusing on "Biological Breeding Empowering High-Quality Development of Chinese Soybeans" [1] - Over 600 representatives from research institutions, universities, management departments, technology promotion agencies, and enterprises participated to discuss and provide suggestions for the high-quality development of China's soybean industry [1] Group 1: Seminar Details - The seminar featured 11 keynote speeches and 77 sub-forum presentations, along with 25 abstract papers [1] - Experts shared the latest research progress in areas such as genetic breeding, cultivation practices, nutritional quality, photoperiod response, disease resistance, pest resistance, stress tolerance, and efficient nutrient utilization [1] Group 2: Regional Developments - Inner Mongolia's Xingan League has established the first provincial-level biological breeding technology innovation center in the country, leveraging its experience in the industrialization of biological breeding [1] - The region has developed the largest biological breeding soybean planting base and the largest standardized soybean seed production base in the country, and has been approved for a national modern agricultural soybean industrial park [1] - In 2024, Xingan League plans to promote biological breeding soybeans across 30.53 thousand acres, and the Koyou Qianqi has successfully applied to become a "provincial-level soybean seed production county" [1] Group 3: Field Observations - During the seminar, representatives visited a demonstration area in Guiliuhe Town, Koyou Qianqi, showcasing the improvement of soybean yield in a 10,000-acre biological breeding soybean area [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a focus on potential investment opportunities in the sector [1][3] - The market performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 11% for the agriculture sector compared to a 4% decline in the CSI 300 index, indicating relative underperformance [2][10] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - Pig prices have been declining due to increased supply pressure, with the average price of live pigs at 13.74 CNY/kg as of August 14, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.00% [6][29] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase in July, with a month-on-month growth of 0.28% [20] - Profitability for self-bred pigs remains positive at 28.85 CNY per head, while purchased piglets show a loss of 157.05 CNY per head [35] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 CNY/kg as of August 15, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [36][39] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry by stabilizing prices [36] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant year-on-year growth in vaccine issuance for various diseases, including a 76% increase for circovirus vaccines in June [45] - The development of African swine fever vaccines is progressing, with clinical trials expected to enhance market interest in the sector [45] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn as of August 15 are 2438 CNY/ton, 3097 CNY/ton, and 2394 CNY/ton, respectively, with soybean meal prices increasing by 2.7% week-on-week [48] - The USDA's August report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous year, which may impact pricing and availability [49][51] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports totaled 4.999 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [53] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 5% across major e-commerce platforms in July [56] - Companies with strong domestic sales growth and supply chain advantages are expected to enhance their market share [56]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing high average weights for market release, indicating a need to focus on the expected differences in the sector [11][12] - The dairy and beef sectors are approaching a new cycle, with opportunities arising from the current market conditions [13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, highlighting growth potential [15][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand improvements, suggesting a need for strategic investments [17][19] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [21][22] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, while the animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to break through market competition [23][24] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 16, the national average pig price is 14.34 CNY/kg, with a self-breeding profit of approximately 94 CNY per head [11] - The average weight for market release is at a historical high of 127.82 kg, indicating strong supply conditions [11][12] - The sector is advised to focus on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with key recommendations including Wen's Food Group and Muyuan Foods [12] Beef Sector - The live cattle price is 26.70 CNY/kg, showing a 0.6% increase week-on-week, while fresh milk prices are at 3.02 CNY/kg [13][14] - The dairy industry is nearing the end of a downturn, with potential for price rebounds as production capacity clears [14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly growing; pet food exports reached 16.79 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.70% [15][16] - Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., focusing on high-growth domestic firms [16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports, with a 30.14% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [17][18] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies like Shennong Development [18] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through improved breeding strategies, with a significant emphasis on food security [21][22] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [22] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector highlights Hai Da Group for its market share growth and performance consistency [23] - The animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to address market saturation, with recommendations for companies like Kexin Biological [24]

Core Insights - China is transitioning from a major technology power to a strong technology power, leading in global technology competition with the highest number of top 100 technology innovation clusters and manufacturing value added for 14 consecutive years [1] - The Yangtze River Delta region is at the forefront of technological innovation due to its unique regional advantages, strong economic foundation, rich talent pool, and complete research system [1] Group 1: Technological Innovations - A team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed the world's first intelligent breeding robot "GEAIR," which can automatically perform hybrid pollination, breaking through bottlenecks in hybrid breeding [2] - The "GEAIR" system has been applied to soybean breeding, achieving rapid creation of male-sterile soybean lines, which is expected to significantly increase yield and provide new intelligent breeding technologies [2] Group 2: Quantum Computing Advances - A new world record for defect-free atomic arrays in neutral atom systems has been established, laying a crucial technological foundation for large-scale neutral atom quantum computing [3] - The Shanghai Quantum Science Research Center and its partners successfully constructed a defect-free two-dimensional and three-dimensional atomic array with 2024 atoms in just 60 milliseconds, showcasing the potential for future applications [3][4] Group 3: Electric Motor Controller Development - The Ningbo Yongjiang Laboratory has unveiled a new generation of motor controllers with a power density of 70 kW/kg, significantly surpassing the industry record of 40 kW/kg [5] - This new controller achieves a volume power density of 57.6 kW/L and represents a nearly threefold increase in power density compared to the previous generation released in June 2024 [5][6]

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 11 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 7 月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：7 月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。（1）本 周猪价承压下行。月初集团场缩量拉涨带动猪价短期偏强；随后供应节奏 恢复、叠加消费弱势，猪价下跌。8 月 8 日全国生猪均价为 13.67 元/公斤， 周环比-0.42 元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量基本持平。近期猪价跌至低位， 屠企低价分割比例抬升，带动屠宰量低位回升；但消费淡季压制需求，增 量空间仍有限。本周样本屠企日均屠宰量为 13.71 万头，周环比+ 0.05%。 （3）本周生猪出栏均重继续下降。规模养殖集团延续降重出栏，同时夏季 高温天气持续，对猪只的采食量和生长速度造成一定影响，集团出栏均重 继续下滑。截至 8 月 7 日当周生猪出栏均重 127.80kg（周环比-0.18kg）， 其中集团场均重 123.54kg（周环比-0.25kg）、散户均重 142.45kg（周环比 +0.28kg）。短期来看，8 月钢联/卓创/涌益样本企业出栏预计环比 +5.26%/+7.01%/+ ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing a halt in the growth of breeding sows, indicating a significant expectation gap in the market. The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, while the price of piglets has reached a new low this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the seasonal demand is weak, suggesting a potential seasonal decline in pig prices [1][2][11] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its capacity reduction phase, with expectations for a rebound in raw milk prices. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can withstand the current downturn showing strong profit potential [3][13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating robust growth in the pet economy. Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [15][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white and egg-laying chickens, with expectations for price improvements driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is also showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and improving demand [4][17][19] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profits around 130 CNY per head. The price of piglets has hit a new low, and the average weight of pigs at market is high, indicating supply pressure [1][11] - The breeding sow numbers have decreased, with some institutions reporting a halt in growth. The market is expected to see capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [2][12] Dairy and Beef Sector - The raw milk price is expected to rebound as the dairy industry approaches the end of its capacity reduction phase. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can adapt showing strong profit potential [3][14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands growing rapidly. Pet food exports are also on the rise, with significant sales growth reported [15][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken and egg-laying chicken markets are focusing on breeding gaps, with expectations for price increases driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through self-sufficiency and enhancing breeding strategies. The government is promoting agricultural technology innovation to support this goal [5][21][22] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, such as Haida Group. The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition with innovative products [6][23][24]