Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi indicates that due to the strategic positioning and product differentiation of various platforms, the direct competition risk with ByteDance's Soda Music is low, reaffirming the "outperform" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (09899) and Tencent Music-SW (01698) [1] Group 1 - NetEase Cloud Music is currently trading at a 2026 adjusted forecast P/E ratio of 17 times [1] - The company has a subscription model that is resilient to economic cycles, providing robust long-term profit potential through multiple cost leverage [1] - The target price for NetEase Cloud Music is set at HKD 310.5 [1]

Summary of Spotify Technology Conference Call (November 13, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) - **Event**: Conference Call - **Date**: November 13, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Position - Spotify is positioned as a leading global tech company focused on music, podcasts, and audiobooks, emphasizing its technological foundation and global reach [5][6][8] - The company aims to achieve over 1 billion monthly active users (MAU) and gross margins in the 35-40% range, with significant progress noted since 2022 [8][10] Financial Performance and Growth - Spotify has increased its user base by nearly 300 million and added 100 million subscribers since 2022, demonstrating strong growth [9][10] - The company reported over 20% growth compared to the previous year, with expectations for continued profitability and growth into 2025 [10] - Gross margins are expected to grow, with typical seasonal declines between Q4 and Q1 due to advertising revenue fluctuations [49][50] Leadership Changes - Daniel Ek transitioned from CEO to Executive Chairman, with Alex and Gustaf stepping into co-CEO roles. This change is seen as a continuation of existing leadership dynamics rather than a significant shift [11][12][15] Engagement and User Behavior - Engagement metrics, including time spent on the platform, are critical indicators of value creation for users. Increased engagement is noted across music, audiobooks, and podcasts [18][20] - The introduction of new verticals (audiobooks and podcasts) has led to increased user engagement without cannibalizing existing music consumption [20][21] Pricing Strategy and Churn Management - Spotify has implemented price increases across various markets without significant changes in churn rates, indicating effective management of the value-to-price ratio [26][27] - The company emphasizes maintaining a strong value-to-price gap to minimize churn and enhance customer retention [27][29] Product Differentiation and Competitive Position - Spotify holds approximately 60% of the global streaming market share, with a focus on innovation and engagement to maintain its competitive edge [61][62] - The company aims to attract creators to its platform, enhancing its content offerings and user experience [62][63] Technological Advancements - Spotify is leveraging AI to enhance personalization and user experience, including partnerships with OpenAI for improved data utilization [64][66][68] - The company has successfully integrated AI to reduce costs and improve product offerings, such as the AI DJ feature [65][68] Advertising Business - The advertising segment is undergoing a transition towards programmatic advertising, with expectations for significant growth by 2026 [77][78] - Despite current low single-digit growth in advertising, the company is optimistic about future performance as it shifts strategies [79] Capital Allocation and Future Outlook - Spotify has €9.1 billion in gross liquidity and plans to prioritize organic growth while considering strategic acquisitions [81][82] - The company is focused on returning value to shareholders through stock buybacks and maintaining a strong balance sheet [83][84] - The management expresses confidence in achieving substantial growth, with only 3% of the global population currently paying for Spotify, indicating significant market potential [88][89] Conclusion - Spotify's management is optimistic about future growth opportunities, profitability, and market expansion, with a strong emphasis on innovation, user engagement, and strategic capital allocation [85][86][89]

Summary of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) 3Q25 Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - **Market Cap**: $32.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $27.2 billion - **Current Price**: $20.75 - **12-Month Price Target**: $25.20 (Upside: 21.4%) [1][2] Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Results**: TME reported a small beat on revenue and profit, but shares declined by approximately 8-9% during trading [2] - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 32,697.5 million (up from Rmb 32,309.7 million) [4] - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 36,937.3 million (up from Rmb 36,367.8 million) [4] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb 9,645.0 million (up from Rmb 9,645.0 million) [4] - 2026E Net Profit: Rmb 10,747.4 million (down from Rmb 11,000 million) [4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Concerns**: - Increased competition among music streaming platforms (e.g., Soda Music) may impact TME's subscriber growth and pricing strategy [2] - Volatility in the live performance business could weigh on group margin expansion in 2026 [2] - **Growth Narrative**: Despite concerns, TME's growth narrative remains intact due to its unique content and value-added services for over 500 million monthly active users (MAUs) [2] - **Revenue Diversification**: TME is expected to achieve solid Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth through SVIP penetration and additional service offerings, alongside expansion into live entertainment and fan economy businesses [2] Future Projections - **2026E Expectations**: - Group revenue growth of 16%+ [3] - Online music revenue growth of 17% year-over-year [17] - Gross Profit (GP) of Rmb 16.2 billion with a Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 43.9% [17] - Non-GAAP Net Profit (NP) of Rmb 10.7 billion with a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 29.1% [17] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Potential derailment from the beat-and-raise cycle [18] - Higher-than-expected content pricing from label companies [18] - Inability to maintain market dominance amid increasing competition [18] - Slower-than-expected growth in non-subscription online music services [18] - Decline in social entertainment business [18] Additional Insights - **ARPU Forecast**: Expected to reach Rmb 19.4 for SVIP and Rmb 10.7 for basic members by 2025E [28] - **Subscriber Growth**: Anticipated growth in quarterly net additions of music subscribers, albeit at a slower pace [30] - **SVIP Membership**: Expected to reach 25.9 million by 2027E, with penetration increasing from 13% to 19% of total paying members [32] Conclusion - TME is positioned to leverage its unique offerings and user base to drive future growth, despite facing competitive pressures and market volatility. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a revised price target reflecting its growth potential and market leadership in the music streaming industry [3][4]

Market Landscape Evolution - The Chinese online music streaming market has shifted from a "duopoly" dominated by Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music to a "tripartite" competition with the entry of ByteDance's Soda Music [2][3] - Tencent Music held a market share of 76.1% in 2016-2017, while NetEase Cloud Music had about 15.6%. This dominance continued until the emergence of Soda Music [2][3] - As of Q1 2024, Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music maintained a combined market share of over 90%, with Tencent Music's monthly active users (MAU) at approximately 202 million and NetEase Cloud Music at around 185 million [2][3] Business Model Comparison - The overall payment rate for online music in China has increased from less than 5% five years ago to about 15% by the end of 2023, indicating a growing trend in user willingness to pay [5] - Tencent Music reported a decline in monthly active users to 551 million, down 4.3% year-on-year, but an increase in paid users to 12.57 million, reflecting a 5.6% growth [6][7] - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a paid user conversion rate of 27% [7][9] Platform Strategies - Tencent Music leverages its extensive entertainment ecosystem, focusing on IP creation and social engagement, while NetEase Cloud Music emphasizes community and original content [13][14] - Soda Music employs an algorithm-driven model similar to Spotify, focusing on user acquisition through free offerings and a seamless integration with Douyin (TikTok) for content discovery [15][26] Copyright Disputes - The end of the exclusive copyright era in 2021 allowed for a more open competition among platforms, reducing the need for high-cost exclusive agreements [20][21] - The transition to a post-exclusive era has led to a more level playing field, with platforms focusing on user experience and operational efficiency rather than solely on acquiring exclusive rights [25][22] Future Outlook - The market may stabilize into a "three-way competition" with Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Soda Music each solidifying their respective niches [33] - The potential for a "fourth player" to emerge in the market appears low, given the historical challenges faced by new entrants and the dominance of existing players [34]

Core Insights - Spotify is set to introduce music videos in the U.S. after a successful beta rollout in 98 markets, positioning itself as a competitor to YouTube in the audiovisual space [1] - A new partnership with the National Music Publishers' Association (NMPA) will allow independent music publishers to enter direct license agreements for expanded audiovisual rights, leading to higher royalty payouts for songwriters [2][3] Group 1: Spotify's New Features - The introduction of music videos will be available for premium subscribers in the U.S. in the coming weeks [1] - This move aims to enhance the connection between artists and fans through new video features [2] Group 2: Partnership with NMPA - The NMPA has launched an "Opt-In Portal" for its members to facilitate direct licensing agreements with Spotify, which will be open for eligible publishers from November 11 to December 19 [3] - The partnership is expected to create new revenue streams for independent publishers and songwriters, reflecting the increasing value of songs in the digital landscape [2][3]

Pre-market futures are up at this hour, a day after a mixed session among major indexes that saw a pullback in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 but a new record-high close for the blue-chip Dow. This looks like a step in the right direction in terms of breadth of market growth. The Dow is up another +103 points currently, the S&P 500 is +22, the Nasdaq +151 and the small-cap Russell 2000 +7 points.Operatives on Capitol Hill are still working to re-open the government after a record-long shutdown (we’re officially on ...

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 12, 2025 06:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsRoss Zhu - CEOLincoln Harris - Asset ManagementShirley Hu - CFOYang Liu - Executive DirectorCussion Pang - Executive ChairmanCussion Kar Shun Pang - Executive ChairmanMillicent T. - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsChris Thomas - Investment Banking AnalystMaggie Ye - Research AnalystAlicia Yap - Managing Director and Senior Equity AnalystMillicent T.Good evening and good ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenues grew 21% year-on-year to CNY 8.5 billion, marking the highest revenue growth since Q1 2021 [17] - Online music revenues increased by 27% year-on-year to CNY 7 billion [18] - Music subscription revenues surged 70% year-on-year to CNY 4.5 billion, driven by growth in monthly ARPPU and subscriber base [18] - Monthly ARPPU reached CNY 11.9, up from CNY 10.8 in the same period last year [18] - Net profit increased by 29% to CNY 2.2 billion, with non-IFRS net profit rising by 28% to CNY 2.5 billion [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Offline performances and artist-related merchandise sales experienced triple-digit year-on-year revenue growth [19] - Advertising revenue continued to grow, driven by a diversified product portfolio and innovative ad formats [19] - Social entertainment services and other revenues were CNY 1.5 billion, down by 3% year-on-year [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully hosted multiple concerts both domestically and internationally, including a concert tour for G-Dragon that drew over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The annual flagship TMEA Concerts featured 35 artists and attracted more than 10,000 attendees [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its dual-engine strategy of platform and content to enhance user experience and drive growth [10][33] - Continued focus on expanding the music service and unlocking new growth opportunities through artist partnerships and innovative offerings [3][8] - The company is committed to enhancing its music ecosystem and exploring new opportunities in offline performances and artist-related merchandise [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering strong results for Q4 2025 and 2026, with expectations of sustained healthy growth in music subscription and non-subscription businesses [25][27] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, but the company believes its extensive music library and user experience will maintain its leadership position [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has won the Music Garden Space Public Welfare Program for seven consecutive years, supporting music education in rural areas [9] - The company is exploring new product combinations and service formats to enhance the fan-based economy [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for Q4 2025 and 2026? - Management is optimistic about strong performance in both online music services and overall revenue growth for 2025, with a focus on subscription and non-subscription business growth [25][27] Question: How does management view the competitive landscape in the music streaming business? - Management acknowledges competition from peers but believes in their competitive edge through content differentiation and user experience [28][29] Question: What are the growth drivers for subscription services in 2026? - Growth will be driven by high-quality content, content privileges, and functional enhancements, with a focus on maintaining steady growth in subscriber base and ARPPU [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's financial performance shows significant growth, with total revenue increasing by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rising by 27.7% to 2.48 billion yuan, driven by its "one body, two wings" strategy in online music services [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Tencent Music reached 8.46 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [3] - Adjusted net profit increased by 27.7% to 2.48 billion yuan [3] - Online music service revenue was 6.97 billion yuan, up 27.2% year-on-year [3] - Online music subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion yuan, growing by 17.2% [3] - The number of paid online music users reached 125.7 million, with ARPPU rising to 11.9 yuan [3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Tencent Music continues to deepen its "one body, two wings" strategy, enhancing its content ecosystem and expanding international business [3] - The company is focused on upgrading platform features and offering personalized membership services to meet diverse user needs [3] - There is a steady increase in super member penetration and ARPPU, contributing to overall performance growth [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from multiple firms, including Morgan Stanley and CICC, express positive long-term expectations for Tencent Music, with ratings of "overweight" and "buy" [4] - Morgan Stanley highlights Tencent Music's clearer strategic layout and the growth potential of concert-related businesses as new revenue drivers [4] - CICC anticipates further growth in super member scale and ARPPU, supporting its "outperform" rating [4]

腾讯音乐在本季度取得的稳健增长得益于内容与平台"一体两翼"战略的持续深化。本季度，腾讯音乐持 续深化与全球知名唱片公司与艺人的合作，为艺人举办国内外大型巡演并扩充自有演出IP矩阵，同时不 断创新产品功能与服务，以满足不同需求的用户群体，为用户创造个性化、差异化的音乐体验。 责任编辑：何俊熹 新浪科技讯 11月12日下午消息，腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称 "腾讯音乐"）今日宣布其截至2025年9月 30日止第三季度未经审计财务业绩。 2025年第三季度，腾讯音乐总收入为84.6亿元，同比增长20.6%，调整后净利润为24.8亿元，同比增长 27.7%。其中，在线音乐业务持续驱动腾讯音乐增长，第三季度，在线音乐服务收入同比增长27.2%至 69.7亿元，单个付费用户月均收入从2024年同期的10.8元增长至11.9元。 ...