Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses various credit spreads and return forecasts for different segments, indicating a cautious outlook on high-yield (HY) and leveraged loans while favoring investment-grade (IG) credit [5][61][72]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a yield-driven market for global investment-grade credit, with expectations for spreads to remain stable or widen modestly in high-yield and leveraged loan segments due to slower global growth and sticky inflation [5][61][72]. - It highlights the divergence in economic forecasts, with the US and Euro Area experiencing low growth and inflation pressures, while Asia is expected to face wider spreads due to trade risks and high valuations [9][10][81]. - The report suggests a preference for quality over cyclicality in credit investments, indicating that investors may be better compensated for taking duration risk rather than cyclical risk in the current environment [30][32][39]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Outlook - Global investment-grade credit remains attractive due to good yields, with a preference for 5-10 year maturities in the US and 15 years or more in Europe [5][61]. - High-yield spreads are expected to widen modestly, reflecting slower growth and increasing default rates, with a forecast of 3.5% for high-yield defaults [61][72]. Macro Economic Forecasts - The report forecasts US GDP growth at 1.0% for 2025, with core inflation at 3.3%, and no Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year [10][11]. - Euro Area growth is projected at 0.8% with core inflation at 2.2%, while China is expected to grow at 4.0% with minimal inflation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - In the US, investment-grade credit is expected to see excess returns of 2.1%, while high-yield is forecasted at 3.6% [61]. - European investment-grade credit is projected to have a total return of 2.0% in the base case, with high-yield expected to yield 4.9% [72]. Asia Credit Outlook - Asia's investment-grade spreads are anticipated to widen to 100 basis points, reflecting concerns over weaker growth and tariff uncertainties [81][83]. - The report indicates a preference for non-China investment-grade credit due to expected tariff impacts on China [84][85].

6月28日，为期三天的第14届中国（广州）国际金融交易·博览会（简称"金交会"）在广州落幕。本届金 交会以"金融聚力扩内需驱动产业新格局"为主题，展览规模达2万平方米，312家参展单位聚焦政策落 地、产业联动、数字转型等核心议题，设置金融党建、交流合作、银行保险等8大主题展区，全面呈现 粤港澳大湾区金融创新发展最新成果。展会期间，组委会联合行业协会、机构举办20余场专业活动，累 计入场人次达4.2万，全球金融界人士围绕金融服务新质生产力发展的创新路径展开深度探讨，为粤港 澳大湾区、金融强省、金融强市建设注入强劲动能。值得关注的是，启动仪式上，广州金融强市建设智 库联盟、数字人民币"广信预"预约消费保障服务平台、广州市湾区国际重组中心、易方达财富管理基金 销售（广州）有限公司、广州健康产投私募基金管理有限公司等5家金融创新平台集中授牌，标志着广 州在金融智库建设、数字经济应用等领域实现突破。 （文章来源：广州日报） 在产融对接环节，51个重点项目现场签约，总金额超710亿元，覆盖低空经济、生物医药等战略性新兴 产业，为广州"12218"现代化产业体系提供资本支撑。同时，展会举办生物医药专场路演、广东省金融 服务 ...

Hurdles in banking and retail may make brand-name stablecoins an idea better in theory than in practice, a senior analyst from credit rating agency Moody's contends. https://t.co/tlLnw7ne6J ...

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Monetary Policy - The Bank of Thailand's decision to maintain borrowing costs provides a "monetary lifeline" to address various challenges [1] Economic Challenges - Challenges include US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and domestic politics [1]

China Weekly: May Mixed Growth, Softer Fiscal Condition; June Weaker Home Sales High frequency: weaker home sales in June, softer port activities 30-city property sales declined further to -9% YoY in the first 21 days of June from - 3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -4% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 12% YoY and tier 3 cities declined by -6% YoY. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both softened to -1% YoY and 2% YoY in the first 15 days (vs 4% YoY and 7% YoY in May). ...

Macro News - The State Council issued a plan to enhance the credit repair system, promoting efficient credit restoration for companies undergoing bankruptcy reorganization or settlement [4] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability and has approved a number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU [4] - The National Financial Supervision Administration and the People's Bank of China released a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance, aiming to establish a comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years [5] Industry News - The Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on advancing river protection and governance, aiming to improve flood prevention and disaster reduction capabilities by 2035 [6] - A new generation of domestically developed CPU, Longxin 3C6000, was launched, which does not rely on any foreign supply chains and meets the performance level of mainstream products in 2023 or 2024 [6] - Xiaomi launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, priced from 253,500 yuan, featuring long-range capabilities [6] - The International Bank for Settlements reported that stablecoins have not met the requirements for monetary system pillars, indicating their future role remains unclear [6] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology announced the ongoing application for a computing power internet experimental network, expanding the trial scope to key industries [8] Company News - Ningbo Huaxiang announced that its subsidiary has been commissioned to produce full-size bipedal robots [9] - Northern Navigation reported that its director and CFO reduced their shareholding by 97,900 shares [10] - The National Medical Insurance Administration issued guidelines for adjusting the basic medical insurance directory, marking a significant step for commercial health insurance [12] - The first hydrogen-electric tugboat, "Hydrogen Electric Tug 1," was officially launched, featuring a hybrid system with zero carbon emissions [12] - Zhifei Biological announced plans to issue bonds up to 6 billion yuan for investment in technological innovation [15] - Dream Network Technology disclosed a restructuring report, planning to acquire 100% of Bicheng Digital for 1.28 billion yuan [18] Global Market - US stock markets mostly rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching near historical closing highs [18] - International crude oil futures settled slightly higher, with WTI crude oil futures up by 0.49% [19] Investment Opportunities - The global cross-border payment market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a transaction volume of 194.6 trillion dollars by 2024, and a CAGR of 6.4% to reach 320 trillion dollars by 2032 [22] - Vivo X Fold5 launched with second-generation semi-solid-state battery technology, predicting a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan for solid-state batteries by 2030 [23] - Analysts predict Nvidia's market value could expand to 6 trillion dollars, driven by a new wave of AI applications [24] - The AI education sector is projected to reach a market size of 160 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth expected in AI-driven educational products [25]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong financial regulatory authority is actively implementing measures to boost consumer spending and expand domestic demand through financial support, as outlined in the "Guangdong Province Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" and the "Guangdong Financial Support for Consumption Expansion Plan" [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Measures to Boost Consumption - The Guangdong financial regulatory authority has introduced 26 specific measures to enhance consumer finance, including increasing personal consumption loans, implementing differentiated credit policies, and optimizing credit card services [4][5]. - As of May 2025, the total balance of credit cards, auto loans, and other comprehensive consumer loans in the region exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, with auto loans alone surpassing 600 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.35% [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management and Consumer Protection - The regulatory authority emphasizes the importance of balancing encouragement of reasonable consumption with the prevention of excessive debt, by enhancing risk management and consumer education [5][6]. - Initiatives include improving policy frameworks, strengthening risk assessment and monitoring, and promoting consumer rights protection through education and complaint resolution mechanisms [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Education and Awareness - The Guangdong financial regulatory authority is increasing financial education efforts to enhance consumer awareness and risk prevention, reaching over 30 million people through various campaigns [6][7]. - The authority has developed multilingual educational materials and conducted outreach activities to help consumers identify and avoid financial scams [7][9]. Group 4: Governance of Financial "Black and Grey Industries" - The regulatory authority is implementing targeted governance strategies to combat financial "black and grey industries," utilizing a collaborative approach with multiple departments and leveraging technology for monitoring [8][10]. - Efforts include establishing standards for industry practices, enhancing information disclosure, and promoting a safer financial environment [8][10].

Core Insights - The survey conducted by Kompliant and Equifax reveals that financial organizations are transforming compliance from a cost center into a revenue driver through intelligent solutions [2][4] - A significant 55% of financial firms are exploring or implementing AI/ML technologies for compliance functions, indicating a strong trend towards automation in the industry [5] Group 1: Compliance Strategy and Technology Adoption - 56% of financial organizations involve their CEO directly in compliance technology decisions, highlighting the strategic importance of these investments [5] - 90% of institutions believe that technological advancement is critical for maintaining a competitive advantage in risk management [5] - 99% of financial services organizations now rely on compliance technology, showcasing its integral role in operations [5] Group 2: Emerging Technologies and Concerns - 55% of financial firms are exploring or implementing AI/ML for compliance functions, making it the top emerging technology in the sector [5] - 50% of organizations seek real-time risk monitoring capabilities, while 47% desire advanced AI analytics [5] - 68% of financial organizations remain cautious about adopting emerging technologies due to security concerns [5] Group 3: Industry Context and Future Directions - The survey comes at a critical time as the financial services industry faces increasingly complex regulations and transformative technological innovations [3] - The partnership between Kompliant and Equifax aims to deliver industry-leading fraud prevention and risk management services, addressing the need for intuitive compliance programs [4]

6月27日（星期五） 09:30-16:30 新产业 新技术 新模式 新动能 ——数智金融助力高质量发展 第14届中国（广州）国际金融交易 · 博览会 主旨会议 基本信息 会议时间 会议地点 广州·中国进出口商品交易会展馆A区二层4.2馆 主办单位 09:30-09:40 主持开场 清华大学五道口金融学院 承办单位 北京清控金媒文化科技有限公司 广州金交会投资管理有限公司 《清华金融评论》编辑部 会议议程 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 09:40-09:50 主办方致辞 张 伟 清华大学五道口金融学院党委委员、院长助理，《清华金融评论》执行主编 09:50-10:00 领导致辞 10:00-10:50 主旨演讲 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 10:50-11:20 高端对话 主持嘉宾： 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 对话嘉宾： 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 11:20-11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 11:20 11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 贝多广 中国人民 ...