AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 当外交官们正为俄乌冲突和平协议的核心条款争得不可开交时，草案中有一个细节却鲜有人注意：那就 是基于美俄商业关系未来可能"遍地开花"的设想而抛出的"甜头"。 这些提案主要由俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人德米特里耶夫（Kirill Dmitriev）与美国特使威特科夫 （Steve Witkoff）共同敲定，设想在两国间达成一项涵盖能源、稀土和数据中心的"长期经济合作协 议"。双方还计划设立一个用于联合项目的美俄投资基金，以此作为"不再重返冲突的强有力激励"。 这事儿还有另一种解读：这两位由商人转型为外交官的角色，正试图精心炮制一个让美国总统特朗普无 法拒绝的理由，好让他继续留在这个谈判局里。 将宏大的外交政策与商业机会捆绑在一起，已成为这位美国总统处理国际事务的一大特色。 在促成加沙停火之前，特朗普就曾勾勒过将该地区打造成"中东里维埃拉"度假胜地的蓝图。在他的第一 个任期内，在寻求与金正恩缓和关系时，他也曾高声畅想过朝鲜那"很棒的海滩"以及在那儿开发海景公 寓的潜力。 前中情局（CIA）中欧亚分部负责人Rob Dannenberg认为，和平提案中类似的论调背后 ...

Group 1 - The company has established good cooperative relationships with fertilizer manufacturers in domestic, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North Africa through years of effort [2] - The company is exploring market expansion in major agricultural production areas such as Southeast Asia and South America [2] - The company is leveraging international exchange platforms from policies to gain overseas orders or technical cooperation opportunities [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, urea will fluctuate and decline. Spot trading is weak on weekends and Mondays, and the spot price is expected to weaken. With the strengthening of the basis, there will be selling pressure from spot and futures sources in the short - term market. Attention should be paid to the daily trading volume of the spot and the change in enterprise inventory this week [2][4] - Domestically, the fundamental pressure is high, but the downward driving force is weakened under policy regulation. In November, due to policy requirements for supply guarantee and profit restoration, urea will maintain high daily production, putting pressure on prices. However, export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, weakening the downward driving force [4] - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is mainly a "buyer's market". The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, and if it breaks through 1700 yuan/ton, some Inner Mongolia factories' inventory may be released, causing selling pressure on the Northeast market. The lower support level is expected to be 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton, as the cost line of coal - based urea has risen and the export policy promotes the replenishment mentality of middle - stream enterprises [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (01 Contract)**: The closing price was 1638 yuan/ton (down 16 from the previous day), the settlement price was 1637 yuan/ton (down 20), the trading volume was 18671980 lots (up 41915), the open interest was 232315 lots (down 10931), the number of warehouse receipts was 7570 tons (up 387), and the trading volume was 611.151 million yuan (up 131.138 million). The basis in Shandong was 2 (up 6), the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 128 (up 16), the basis of Dongguang - disk was 2 (up 16), and the spread between UR01 - UR05 was - 73 (up 1) [2] - **Factory Prices**: The prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Shanxi remained the same [2][3] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 83.75% with no change, and the daily output was 202510 tons with no change [3] Industry News - On November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46400 tons (3.13% month - on - month) from the previous week. The price fluctuated upwards, and the demand for Northeast reserves increased, leading to inventory reduction in some enterprises. The inventory changes of enterprises in major production and sales areas varied. Provinces with inventory reduction include Hainan, Henan, etc., while those with inventory increase include Anhui, Gansu, etc. [2]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted. After the export quota was finalized, market sentiment gradually cooled, and the price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The urea futures price is likely to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, supported by export news and reserve demand expectations, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited. The UR01&05 spread strengthened slightly recently, but its rebound space is also limited. For options, the short - term reduction of positions in the previously sold main call options is recommended, with attention to risk control and stop - loss [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract of urea fluctuated and adjusted this week. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1,658 yuan/ton. The current urea futures market is in a relatively strong oscillation. After the new batch of export quotas was finalized, market sentiment cooled, but the price still showed some resistance to decline. The improvement in fundamental supply and demand is relatively limited. Although the industrial inventory has declined from its high level, the absolute quantity still exerts significant pressure, weakening the price rebound momentum to some extent. The price is likely to oscillate and adjust, but the medium - term rebound space may be limited [6]. Spot Market - This week, the prices of the urea spot market in various regions increased slightly. Due to export stimulation, traders and end - users appropriately increased their replenishment, and factory quotes were relatively firm, but the sustainability was insufficient. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong was about 1,550 - 1,630 yuan/ton, the reference price for first - hand traders in Linyi was around 1,600 yuan/ton, and that in Heze was around 1,590 yuan/ton [9]. Basis and Spread - This week, the basis adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 58 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 18 yuan/ton, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 73 yuan/ton, adjusting at a low level [9]. Warehouse Receipts - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has gradually increased. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 6,958. Currently, the warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings, while those in other factories and warehouses are relatively low [10]. Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 229,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the maintenance volume of coal - based sample plants was about 18,230 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared with the previous period; the maintenance volume of gas - based sample plants was about 46,700 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. As of November 13, the domestic urea operating rate was about 84.08%, an increase of about 1.37% compared with the previous period. This week, the urea output was about 1.3769 million tons, an increase of about 22,400 tons compared with last week. The continuous increase in the stock load pressure may drag down the subsequent urea price, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to improve due to the expected release of new production capacity [13][16][17]. Downstream Industries - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72% compared with last week. The profit of compound fertilizer continued to be compressed. The inventory of compound fertilizer decreased to about 656,300 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 6.36%. The seasonal slowdown of the compound fertilizer load may weaken its support for urea [19]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the domestic melamine operating rate was about 57.48%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine output increased to about 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.15%. The load is expected to remain strong in the future [20]. Inventory and Pre - sales - As of November 12, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was about 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of about 94,500 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 5.99%. The port inventory increased to 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous period. As of now, the pre - sales days are about 7.71 days, an increase of about 0.42 days compared with the previous period. The inventory pressure of the urea industry has been moderately relieved, but the absolute quantity is still large, and further inventory digestion is needed [23][24]. Industry Profits - As of November 13, the profit of the fixed - bed process was about - 327 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the profit of the coal - water slurry process was about 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the profit of the natural gas process was about - 282 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The urea industry profit has continued to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, so the profit is likely to continue weak adjustment [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a loose pattern, with the center of futures and spot prices moving down, and the delivery volume and warehouse receipt volume hitting new highs, indicating a large selling pressure in the market [2][6]. - The UR2511&2601 spread mainly follows the reverse arbitrage logic, and the UR2601&2605 spread is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export, reserve demand expectations, and high - load production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Delivery Information Summary - Since its listing, the urea 11 - contract has undergone 6 deliveries. In the mainstream delivery areas of Henan and Hebei, the 11 - contract has mostly had a discounted futures price. The current UR2511 contract's delivery settlement price is 1619 yuan/ton, with a lower basis compared to historical contracts. The delivery volume of the UR2511 contract is about 3950 lots (about 79,000 tons), an increase compared to the 2510 contract and last year's 11 - contract, reflecting the loose market situation [2][6][12]. 3.2 Warehouse Receipt and Seat Distribution Overview - As of the end of November, the urea warehouse receipt volume is much higher than the historical level. As of the last trading day in November, the warehouse receipt volume is about 7183 lots, an increase of 1627 lots from the previous month and 3469 lots from the same period last year. High warehouse receipt volume weakens the long - position holding willingness and is related to factors such as loose supply - demand, expanded sales channels, and hedging needs [3][14]. - Warehouse receipts are mainly distributed in factories such as Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means of Production, Zhongnong Holdings, and Anhui Zhongneng, with Yuntu Holdings having the highest proportion (about 28%). In terms of provinces, Henan has the largest warehouse receipt volume (about 21.3%), followed by Hubei and Hebei (17.3% - 17.4%). Warehouse receipts are mainly concentrated in factories, accounting for about 84% [3][15]. - Among the seller member seats, Yide Futures has the highest proportion (about 26.03%), followed by Guohai Liangshi and Zhongyuan Futures. Among the buyer member seats, Guotai Junan has the largest proportion (about 118.71%), followed by Hongyuan Futures and Wuchan Zhongda [3][19]. 3.3 Later Evaluation - The UR2511&2601 spread follows the reverse arbitrage logic due to insufficient industrial and agricultural demand and inventory accumulation. The UR2601&2605 spread is under pressure from high inventory, with limited further downward space and weak rebound momentum. It is likely to fluctuate strongly under the influence of export and reserve demand expectations and high - load production [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The seasonal performance of the basis of the urea 11 - contract in Hebei this year is weaker than that of last year, with low volatility. The estimated one - month fixed delivery cost of urea is about 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and there are limited risk - free arbitrage opportunities. In the long - term, the loose market pattern may increase enterprises' willingness to participate in delivery [22]. - The report also provides detailed information on urea delivery factories, warehouses, and the calculation of theoretical delivery costs [21][24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is entering the traditional storage season in Q4 2025, with improved market sentiment supported by concentrated storage demand, steady export activities, and a rebound in the compound fertilizer industry, leading to a gradual decrease in urea inventories [1] Group 1: Production Dynamics - Urea production capacity utilization remains at 83.91%, slightly down by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month but up by 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Daily production stabilizes at a high level of 202,900 tons, ensuring overall supply remains sufficient [2] - Localized supply disruptions due to maintenance and upgrades at certain companies are offset by the resumption of production at others, maintaining regional supply stability [2] Group 2: Demand Release - Urea's absolute valuation is currently in a relatively reasonable range, with storage and fertilizer demand gradually being released, providing price support [3] - Storage progress in various regions is ahead of previous years, with significant completion rates reported in areas like Shandong and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Compound Fertilizer Industry - The compound fertilizer industry's operating rate has increased, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating improved production and sales rates [4] - The utilization rate for compound fertilizer production is at 34.61%, up by 4.29 percentage points month-on-month [4] Group 4: Export Activities - Exports have played a crucial role in balancing the urea supply-demand equation, with cumulative exports exceeding 4 million tons by October 2025 [5] - October's export volume reached approximately 1.2 million tons, significantly surpassing market expectations [5] - The latest pricing data indicates a favorable market outlook, with port inventories rising and domestic urea inventories decreasing by 46,400 tons week-on-week [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple favorable factors, including storage demand, export activities, and a rebound in compound fertilizer production, are supporting market sentiment [5] - The high daily production levels may exert some pressure on market prices, with regional price differentiation expected [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Urea [1] - Report type: Daily report - Report date: November 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - On November 20, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 1665 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1674 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1648 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,000 lots, an increase of 53,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 245,000 lots, a decrease of 4,000 lots from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Price - Urea 2512: Closing price 1651, change 0.06%, trading volume 6093 lots, a decrease of 538 lots, high 1658, low 1635, open 1648, close 1643 - Urea 2601: Closing price 1665, change 0.00%, open interest 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots, trading volume 209,245 lots, high 1661, low 1661 - Urea 2602: Closing price 1670, previous close 1668 [6] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Spot Price and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices remained generally stable, with slight differences in some regions due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1640 yuan/ton (basis -25 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1500 yuan/ton (basis -165 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1600 yuan/ton (basis -65 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1620 yuan/ton (basis -45 yuan/ton) [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry Information - Demand side: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 30.2%, and the operating rate of melamine was 53.2%. The new order transactions in the urea market were slow last week, but improved after enterprises cut prices. Currently, prices have risen slightly, and the market trading atmosphere has continued to warm up. The autumn fertilizer production of agriculture and compound fertilizer has entered the final stage, winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has declined slightly due to environmental protection factors. Although the operating rate of melamine has increased, purchases are still mainly for rigid demand [7][8] - Supply side: The winter storage process has gradually started, and the urea of Xinjiang Zhongneng has been put on the market. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the urea supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term. It is expected that the maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter will start gradually from December [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current urea market transactions have warmed up, but the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, winter storage has not started on a large scale, and the operating rates of industries such as compound fertilizer remain low due to environmental protection and other factors. On the supply side, new production capacity is gradually being released, and the products of Xinjiang Zhongneng have been put on the market. It is expected that the urea supply will be loose in the medium and long term. The maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter may start gradually in December, which may support the supply to some extent. The current market is still mainly for rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate. The progress of winter storage and the impact of environmental protection policies need to be monitored in the future [9]

尿素日报 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1638（-19/-1.15%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下探，成交一般，河南出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1620-1630 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1560-1570 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 24 日，尿素行业日产 20.33 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较 去年同期增加 1.87 万吨；今日开工率 84.08%，较去年同 81.64%提升 2.44%。隆众统计。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳， 成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主 ...