Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (January 5, 2026) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Area: Commodities (Urea) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic urea market shows a complex situation. Although the daily output is high and the supply is relatively abundant, affected by factors such as Indian tenders, regional demand, and the progress of off - season storage, the price trend is expected to be strong in the short - term and the supply - demand fundamentals will remain relatively loose in the medium - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose strongly, closing at 1768 (+25/+1.43%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices of urea in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend. For example, in Henan, it was reported at 1640 - 1660 yuan/ton; in Shandong, small - particle ex - factory price was 1660 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On January 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.86 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 2.52 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate was 82.70%, a 2.52% increase compared to 78.05% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Regional Market Conditions**: In Shandong, the ex - factory price was weak and stable, with a cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory price followed the downward trend. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the ex - factory price was strong, and the market atmosphere was positive [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The daily output of domestic urea has recovered to around 19.8 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. India has tendered again, but the impact on the domestic market is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The off - season storage progress has reached over 70%, and the future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the ex - factory price is expected to be strong in most regions. In the medium - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of urea will remain relatively loose, and the acceptance of price increases by downstream customers is low [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off [6][9]. - **Options**: Hold off [9]. Related Charts - Multiple charts show historical data on urea production, operating rate, inventory, and related product data from 2022 to 2025, including daily production, coal - based and gas - based production, enterprise inventory, port inventory, etc. [10][14]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1749 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1710 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2737 手至 15.68 万手，空头持仓减少 1080 手至 | | | | | 18.85 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.08 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 1.82 万吨；今日开工率 80.52%，较去年同期 78.81%回升 1.71%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 101.92 万吨，环比-4.97 万吨，减少 4.65%。 | | | | | 尿素港口样本库存量 17.2 万吨，环比-0.56 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China reported an increase in the fertilizer utilization rate for major crops, indicating improved agricultural efficiency and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Fertilizer Utilization Rate - By 2025, the fertilizer utilization rate for wheat, corn, and rice is projected to reach 43.3%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from 2020 [2]. - In 2024, the total application of agricultural fertilizers is expected to be 49.88 million tons, a reduction of 1.034 million tons (17.2%) compared to 2015, while grain production increased by 6.9% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Increased Utilization - The promotion of soil testing and formula fertilization has been crucial, with over 2.3 billion acres of land covered, achieving over 95% coverage for major crops [4]. - The "Three New" integrated model, which includes new fertilization technologies, products, and equipment, has significantly contributed to the increase in fertilizer utilization rates [4]. - The use of organic fertilizers and microbial fertilizers as alternatives to chemical fertilizers has enhanced nutrient efficiency, with over 650 million acres of organic fertilizer application expected by 2025 [5]. Group 3: Specialized Services and Support - The development of specialized scientific fertilization service organizations, with over 17,000 existing nationwide, has facilitated the implementation of advanced fertilization techniques [6]. - The average reduction in fertilizer use in trial areas is around 10%, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrated nutrient management practices [6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs aims to strengthen the management of fertilizer and water resources, focusing on precision management and policy guidance to further enhance fertilizer utilization [6].

尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for urea is volatile, while the medium - term central price is expected to rise [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have improved temporarily, with the driving force being neutral to slightly strong, but the strength is limited. The subsequent upward movement of the driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (e.g., Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][9][15][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 392 million tons, and in 2025, it was 664 million tons. There are also plans for new capacity in 2026 [23] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026, including Yangmei Fengxi, Linggu Chemical, etc., with reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost) maintenance [25] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. Cost calculations are provided for Shanxi fixed - bed factories, including coal - related costs, ammonia, and urea [29] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, with charts showing the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production methods [34][35] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies tightened. Historical monthly export data from 2018 - 2025 (E) are provided, and there are also charts showing export profits and export quantities [39][40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different demand patterns according to crop types and growth stages. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [45][46][48] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, with relevant export and real - estate data presented [59][60] Inventory - On December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1019,200 tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week, a 4.65% month - on - month decrease. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 28.26% month - on - month increase [65] International Urea International Urea Price - Charts show the historical trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea from China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [69][70][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term view: The urea market will be in a state of oscillation. The speculation in the fertilizer sector is suppressed by policies related to sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, resulting in neutral spot trading. However, due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026, the 05 contract has a downside support [2]. - Medium - term view: The central price level of urea will move upwards. The fundamentals of urea have improved stage - by - stage with continuous procurement from reserves and the grassroots level. The subsequent upward momentum depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, including the basis of different enterprises (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), 5 - 9 monthly spreads, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, 9 - 1 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued. A number of enterprises added new production capacity, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025. Some enterprises also had device restarts and capacity replacements [24]. - **Production Plan**: The report lists the maintenance plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including the start and end dates of maintenance, raw materials, and reasons for maintenance [26]. - **Output**: Despite the production profit being around the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output in China [27][28]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, fluidized - bed, natural gas) of urea in Shanxi region [30]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the historical profit trends of different production processes of urea [35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, the export policy has tightened. The report provides historical data on China's urea net import (export) volume from 2018 - 2025 [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. The demand for different crops in different regions and seasons is presented, and the high - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production gross profit, and inventory trends of compound fertilizers in China [53]. - **Melamine**: It presents the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine in China [57]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience. The report provides data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real estate construction and completion area [60]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0192 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from the previous week [63][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [70][71][73].

Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market is experiencing a stable yet cautious environment, with prices showing slight fluctuations and supply conditions remaining relatively loose [1][4]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main urea futures contract closed at 1749 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 8168 contracts [1]. - During the week of December 29 to December 31, the urea futures opened at 1729 CNY/ton, peaked at 1763 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 1721 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.81% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 31, Yanzhou Coal Mining's urea factory in Xinjiang quoted a price of 1310 CNY/ton with a production capacity of 520,000 tons, while Kuitun Jinjian's urea factory quoted 1350 CNY/ton with a capacity of 700,000 tons, both operating normally [2]. - As of December 24, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 106.89 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons or 9.39% from the previous week [2]. - The port inventory of urea samples in China was 17.7 million tons, which increased by 30,000 tons or 28.2% compared to the previous week [2]. Futures Market Activity - On December 30, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange recorded 12,381 urea futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 1,631 receipts from the previous trading day [2]. - Over the past week, the total growth of urea futures warehouse receipts was 1,849, representing a growth rate of 17.56%, while the monthly increase reached 4,794 receipts, marking a 63.19% rise [2]. Institutional Insights - Guosen Futures noted that the overall urea market is in a state of loose supply, with the current operating rate of urea production enterprises at 81.6%, slightly down but still within a high range [4]. - Demand remains weak, particularly in agriculture, leading to a market characterized by sporadic replenishment [4]. - Everbright Futures indicated that short-term supply and demand changes are limited, with the futures market showing resilience due to external influences, but lacking sustained upward momentum [4].

Group 1 - The company China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The total amount spent on the buyback is HKD 3.8077 million [1] - The company repurchased 424,000 shares at a price range of HKD 8.81 to HKD 9.18 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartlink Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - The company will repurchase 424,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 3.8077 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 8.81 to HKD 9.18 [1]