文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 刘河维 李俊波 顺势而为，宏观把握行业周期，中观布局高景气板块，微观精选业绩高确定性个股，综合梳理两条 投资主线：一、优选业绩高成长，估值持续消化标的；二、聚焦行业龙头，中长期核心受益标的。 ▍ 关键词1：催收：CPI增速放缓和前期物业费局部限价影响了板块的营收增长，也增加了收缴 难度（分析样本为具备可持续经营能力的1 4家中大市值上市公司，下同）。 到2 0 2 4年年底，物业服务板块一年以上的贸易应收款金额达到2 7 7亿元，较2 0 2 3年大幅增加 3 8%，客观上说明了收缴的难度。不过，2 0 2 4年板块贸易应收增长9 . 2%，较2 0 2 3年1 7%的增速 明显下降，这一方面说明在困难的环境之下，催收工作取得了积极成果，另一方面说明长期欠费 业主占比仍然较小，绝大多数业主认可物业服务定价，及时缴费。同时，物业服务企业积极计提 应收减值，净新增应收减值6 0亿，比2 0 2 3年提升1 6亿元，一定程度夯实了报表。 ▍ 关键词2：节流：面对严峻形势，物业服务公司也开始努力节流。 首先，板块合同负债在2 0 2 4年提升了6%，总金额较2 0 2 3年增加了1 9亿元，企业 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Sector Analysis - The article discusses the current positioning of six main sectors: technology, consumer, pharmaceuticals, new energy, dividends, and overseas expansion, providing insights on stock prices, valuations, and fundamentals [1] - The property service industry achieved a positive cash flow of 19.8 billion and a net increase in monetary funds of 6 billion, with an average dividend payout ratio rising to 65% [6] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with PB ratios at the lower end of the past three years, indicating a high cost-performance ratio [7] Group 2: Electric and Commercial Vehicles - The development of hybrid heavy-duty trucks is seen as the final piece in the electrification puzzle, with expected penetration rates of 1%, 5%, and 10% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The article highlights the significant growth potential for hybrid heavy-duty trucks in long-distance transportation, with a projected market share of 30% by 2030 [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - The electric power sector experienced a 1.3% year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in January and February 2025, attributed to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Investment in thermal and nuclear power has accelerated, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.5% in investment amounts [9] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Tourism - During the Qingming Festival, domestic travel increased by 6.3% in terms of the number of trips and 6.7% in total spending, indicating strong travel demand [13] - The article anticipates a continued rise in leisure tourism and service consumption, with a focus on sectors like dining and hotels [13] Group 5: Agricultural Machinery - The recent government plan aims to significantly advance agricultural modernization by 2035, which will drive demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural machinery [11] - The plan emphasizes upgrading agricultural machinery and integrating advanced equipment into the entire agricultural production process [11]

Core Views - The ongoing tariff situation remains uncertain, with recession expectations accelerating the shift to recession trading, potentially leading to synchronized cycles between China and the US [1] - Short-term focus should be on core assets, with a recommendation to concentrate on sectors such as self-sufficiency, military industry, domestic demand, and dividends [1][5] - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump significantly exceeds expectations, with a potential 34% tariff on China impacting exports and GDP growth [2][5] Economic Impact - The anticipated 54% increase in tariffs since Trump's presidency could reduce China's export growth by 8.2 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points if the tariffs remain in place throughout the year [2] - Domestic policies are expected to respond with counter-cyclical measures to ensure stable economic development [2][5] Sector Analysis - Core assets are expected to outperform, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate resilience and competitive advantages, particularly in manufacturing and technology [1][5] - The agricultural sector may benefit from rising prices due to retaliatory measures, while the machinery sector should focus on resilient end-demand and competitive supply structures [5] - The banking sector is showing defensive value amid rising market volatility, with stable fundamentals expected to support performance [18] Market Strategy - The strategy suggests a shift towards low-valuation sectors with strong earnings certainty, particularly in consumer themes, agriculture, and semiconductor materials [9] - The focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency is emphasized as external pressures increase [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in core assets as the market adjusts to external shocks, with a recommendation for a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy [1] - The energy sector, particularly airlines, is expected to see improved margins due to falling oil prices, presenting a favorable investment opportunity [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the discounting of vacant property fees will not become widespread, and even if it does, its impact on property service companies will be limited. The industry faces significant investment opportunities by rationalizing the pricing system and encouraging quality services, which will lead to clearer financial returns for quality service providers [1][7]. Historical Context - Various regions have implemented discounts on vacant property fees, such as Suzhou and Wuxi, where property service fees are charged at 70% for unoccupied properties. However, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai do not offer such discounts, and some areas have explicitly stated that there will be no discounts on vacant property fees [2][3]. Analysis of Vacant Fee Discounts - The article presents several reasons why discounts on vacant fees are unlikely to be widely adopted: 1. Property services are essential for maintaining public spaces and facilities, regardless of occupancy levels. 2. Vacant properties still benefit from services, which can enhance property values for owners. 3. Discounting vacant fees may inadvertently increase the cost of renting, leading owners to prefer keeping properties vacant rather than renting them out. 4. Developers currently face financial difficulties, but this situation is expected to improve with stabilizing housing prices, making it more reasonable to recognize unpaid fees as receivables rather than granting exemptions [3][4]. Impact on Property Service Companies - Even if vacant fees are discounted, the overall impact on property service companies is expected to be minimal. For instance, if 10% of managed area is vacant and 30% of that area receives a 30% discount, the estimated revenue impact would be only 0.9% of the company's basic service income. In reality, the effect may be even lower, as many residents do not face vacant fee issues [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The property service industry is seen as having significant investment potential through the rationalization of pricing and the promotion of quality services. The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for blue-chip companies in the sector for 2025 ranges from 5.9 to 18.3, with an average dividend yield of 5.6% and a maximum yield of 9.4%. Policies aimed at stabilizing domestic demand and rationalizing pricing are viewed as key factors for enhancing valuations in the property service sector [7][8].

Group 1: Trade Policy Impact - The new "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump raises the actual tariff rate on China to 54%, slightly above market expectations, with significant impacts on the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and several Southeast Asian countries [1] - The policy may represent a temporary "endpoint" for U.S. tariff increases, with future execution potentially weaker than verbal communications, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation and new developments [1] - Observations on U.S.-China relations should focus on the shift from "sanctions-counter-sanctions" to "managing differences-risk prevention," as uncertainty continues to affect asset prices [1] Group 2: Price Governance Mechanism - The recent opinion from the Central Committee and State Council emphasizes that prices determined by the market should be left to market forces, which is expected to lead to more accurate price reflections of supply and demand [2] - The opinion outlines arrangements for price mechanisms in energy, public utilities, agricultural products, public services, and data elements, serving as a foundation for macroeconomic governance [2] - Aiming for a price target around "2%", the market-oriented pricing mechanism is anticipated to promote moderate price recovery [2] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Sector - The deepening of price reforms and improvement of governance mechanisms are expected to lead to more market-oriented pricing in public utilities such as electricity, water, and gas [3] - Large hydropower, currently with low marketization and significantly below industry averages, is likely to benefit from price adjustments, leading to increased electricity prices and revenues [3] - The water and gas sectors, facing serious price transmission delays, may see improvements in overall returns and stability as pricing adjustment mechanisms are enhanced [3] Group 4: Property Management Services - The anticipated introduction of strong price limits for property management fees in Chongqing in 2023 is not expected to set a nationwide trend, with a focus on encouraging quality services at reasonable prices [6] - The property service sector is currently facing multiple challenges, including weak fundamentals and declining growth rates, but is expected to have significant upward potential as policies shift [6] - Property service companies are viewed as having a notable safety margin, making them attractive to investors [6] Group 5: Debt Market Dynamics - The shift towards ultra-long government bonds and rising interest rates since 2025 have increased interest rate risks for banks, particularly those relying on bond investments for profit [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a sharp decline in bond investment returns due to rising rates, putting pressure on net profits [7] - Banks may be forced to sell long-term bonds in response to interest rate risks, which could negatively impact the long-term bond market in the second quarter of 2025 [7] Group 6: Consumer Goods Sector Outlook - The consumer goods sector experienced a weak demand trend in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by the staggered impact of the Spring Festival and limited improvement in terminal demand [9] - Despite cost pressures from rising prices of certain raw materials, the overall cost of most materials remains favorable, providing some relief [9] - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see a recovery in consumer goods revenue due to a low base and demand resurgence, with specific opportunities in the dairy, beverage, and snack sectors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that good housing requires good services, and good services necessitate quality and reasonable pricing. It predicts that the strong price limit policy for property fees in Chongqing in 2023 will not set a nationwide trend, but will encourage quality and reasonable pricing, potentially reversing market expectations for pricing and profitability in the property service industry [1][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - In late 2023, Chongqing introduced a new property service fee management method, establishing a government-guided price for residential property service fees, which alters the previous market-adjusted pricing for high-level services. The highest service fee was set at 1.9 yuan per square meter per month, with potential exemptions for vacant properties [2]. Impact of Price Limits - The strong price limit policy may lead to a significant decline in the collection rate of existing property service contracts, creating negative externalities. The pricing constraints on existing contracts are deemed reasonable, as buyers have no bargaining power. However, the 1.9 yuan per square meter limit is considered outdated, as many listed companies charge above this rate. As of October 2024, 34% of local communities in Chongqing charged over 2 yuan per square meter [3]. Industry Challenges - Four main factors suggest that strong price limits are not advisable: 1. Overall property service quality in China is insufficient, with property fees/rent ratios significantly lower than in other countries, leading to rapid depreciation of housing value [4]. 2. The profitability of basic services in property companies is already low, and imposing price limits could drive out quality providers, negatively impacting living conditions [5]. 3. The complexity of establishing homeowners' committees and collective decision-making complicates the implementation of price limits on existing contracts [6]. 4. Residents often lack awareness of the quality of property services, which can lead to a misunderstanding of the implications of low property fees [6]. Future Policy Directions - The article anticipates that future policies will guide property service companies to enhance service quality and promote the concept of quality and reasonable pricing, rather than merely imposing price limits. The government has already repealed previous price limit documents, indicating a shift towards ensuring that any price limits set are above the average service costs of quality property service companies [7][8]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the property service sector is currently experiencing a dual low in valuation and profitability due to policy concerns and other factors. However, it is expected that there will be significant upward elasticity in the future, making it a sector worth monitoring for policy turning points [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, showing a decline of 32% and 16% respectively over the past year [2] - The top-performing sectors yesterday included non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and banks, with respective gains of 1.14%, 0.95%, and 0.88% [2] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors included computers, real estate, and defense, with declines of 1.92%, 1.77%, and 1.68% [2] Group 2 - The fixed income analysis indicates that high real interest rates are not a sufficient condition for interest rate cuts, emphasizing that current monetary policy is already supportive of the real economy [8][10] - The report discusses the efficiency of monetary policy transmission in China, stating that changes in policy rates directly influence lending rates without the need for intermediary market adjustments [11] - It is noted that the actual interest rate is more of an academic concept with limited impact on the real economy, as evidenced by the U.S. experiences during past crises [12] Group 3 - The automotive sector is witnessing significant advancements in autonomous driving technology, with multiple companies announcing progress towards Level 3 capabilities expected to be achieved by 2025 [20][21] - BYD has made notable announcements regarding its charging infrastructure and vehicle sales, indicating strong market activity and consumer interest [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of the automotive industry's transition to higher levels of automation and the competitive landscape among various manufacturers [20] Group 4 - The service consumption sector is experiencing robust growth, with travel bookings for the Qingming Festival showing positive trends, and companies like Tongcheng reporting significant revenue increases [26] - The education sector is also highlighted, with companies like Excellence Education Group and Thinking乐 reporting impressive revenue and profit growth, indicating a strong market recovery [27] - The report notes that the average per capita service consumption expenditure in China is expected to exceed 50% by 2030, reflecting a growing trend in service-oriented spending [27] Group 5 - In the chemical industry, the report indicates a continued upward trend in organic silicon prices, driven by strong manufacturer pricing intentions and potential supply shortages [32] - The urea market is also showing signs of recovery, with prices slightly increasing due to various market dynamics, including reduced inventories and seasonal demand [33] - The report recommends several companies in the chemical sector, including 合盛硅业 and 兴发集团, as potential investment opportunities [35] Group 6 - The media sector is focusing on AI applications and gaming, with significant developments in virtual reality films expected to enhance audience engagement and revenue generation [42] - The report highlights the approval of numerous new games, indicating a healthy pipeline for the gaming industry, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [41] - Companies like Tencent and NetEase are recommended for their strong positions in the gaming market and ongoing innovations in AI technology [40]

文 ｜ 陈聪 张全国 刘河维 李俊波 我们认为，困扰民企物业服务公司的历史问题已经消散，企业的分红普遍具备很强吸引力，现金资 产具备安全边际。而且，绝大多数民企物业服务公司经营性现金持续净流入，高分红是完全可持续 的。和2 0 2 4年秋天不同，当前物业服务板块可能的催化剂，并不是地产领域信用的好转（当然地 产信用也是平稳的），而是即将公布的2 0 2 4年年报有望兑现可持续的高分红，以及长期稳健发展 的愿景。我们推荐当前头部民营物业服务企业。 ▍ 历史因素形成的估值洼地。 当前，我们统计的样本民企物业管理公司的市值/企业在手资金为1 . 9 x，我们预计这些企业2 0 2 4 年股息率为5 . 6%，如果剔除金科服务，预计为6 . 0%。由于历史上房地产关联方出险，部分应收 款出现坏账，这些企业融资并购扩张的发展路径被证伪，民营物业服务公司的市值相较历史高点 大幅下降，截至2 0 2 5年3月1 3日收盘价，融创服务、碧桂园服务、永升服务、新城悦服务、金科 服务股价都较历史高点下降了超过9 0%。 ▍ 部分公司具备现金持续造血能力。 2 0 2 2年之后，物业服务板块逐渐进入低潮，此后所有民企物业服务公司基 ...

Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of discounted property management fees for vacant homes reflects a response to the new dynamics in the real estate market and the demands of homeowners, aiming to alleviate financial burdens and improve relations between property owners and management companies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Multiple cities, including Changsha, Zhenjiang, and Qingdao, have initiated policies to reduce property management fees for vacant homes, with discounts ranging from 60% to 70% based on the duration of vacancy [2][3]. - Changsha's policy offers a tiered discount structure, where fees are reduced to 70% after 24 months of vacancy and to 90% thereafter [2]. - Zhenjiang allows a 70% fee for homes vacant for over six months, with negotiations for those vacant over 24 months [2]. Group 2: Market Response - Over ten cities have adopted similar discount policies, with a significant number located in Jiangsu province, indicating a growing trend in addressing the issue of vacant homes [3]. - The largest discount reported is in Lanzhou, where vacant homes for over six months can have fees reduced to 50% [3]. - Experts suggest that these policies not only ease the financial pressure on homeowners but also help to balance the long-standing conflicts between property management and owners [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Property management companies face challenges due to reduced income from discounted fees, which may lead to cuts in service quality [4][5]. - Some companies view the situation as an opportunity to enhance service quality and diversify offerings, such as expanding into home services and community group purchases [5]. - The competitive landscape in the property management sector is intensifying, prompting companies to adapt their pricing strategies and improve service delivery to retain clients [5]. Group 4: Definition and Standardization Issues - There is currently no unified national definition of "vacant homes," leading to confusion and potential discrepancies in policy implementation [6]. - Different cities use varying criteria to define vacancy, such as the absence of utility usage or written confirmation from property owners [6]. - Legal experts emphasize the need for a standardized approach to avoid inconsistencies and ensure fair application of the discount policies across different regions [6].