Over the past year, one in three condo owners in Manhattan who sold sold at a loss. If we pan out and look at the Manhattan market over 10, 20 years, what's happened with prices over that time. Did did people make money.Especially when you compare it to some of the the hotter markets. >> Yeah, I think uh Manhattan has pretty much been flat. I don't think that there people have like cashed in, sold their apartments, and made money.That just hasn't happened. Condominiums have often been looked at as a way for ...

Economic Concerns - Economists warn that interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy could lead to dangerously low interest rates, negatively impacting economic growth and potentially causing skyrocketing inflation and substantial stock market losses [1][3] - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has labeled Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence as a "very serious danger" to the global economy [1] Critique of Political Pressure - Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, argues that it is in Trump's best interest to allow the Fed to operate independently to make necessary decisions to control inflation, warning that undermining this independence could lead to severe economic damage and political repercussions for the GOP [3] - Griffin's critique highlights the potential consequences for senior voters who may suffer from diminished savings if inflation rises unchecked due to political pressure on the Fed [2][3] Inflation Data - The U.S. consumer price index has increased by 25% over the past five years, indicating a significant erosion of purchasing power [6] - Historical data shows that $100 in 2025 will only have the purchasing power equivalent to $12.05 in 1970, emphasizing the long-term impact of inflation [6] Gold as an Investment - Gold has historically been a reliable asset for preserving wealth, with its price surging by over 35% in the past 12 months, making it a popular choice among investors during economic uncertainty [8] - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of including gold in investment portfolios as a diversifier during challenging economic times [8] Real Estate as a Hedge - Real estate has proven to be a powerful hedge against inflation, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by over 50% in the past five years due to strong demand and limited supply [11] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived allow investors to gain exposure to real estate without the burdens of traditional property ownership, making it easier to invest in this asset class [12][13]

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund raised about $253 million by trimming its stake in a Mecca-based property developer that’s become the kingdom’s best-performing equity listing this year https://t.co/wKEQUXDBRq ...

Over the past year, 1 in 3 condo owners in Manhattan who sold sold at a loss. Now, with the election of Mamdani, there are reports that the wealthy could flee even more, going to the suburbs or places like Florida or Texas. But the real reason why Manhattan real estate has been flat over the past decade, and what the wealthy are really doing is a bit more nuanced.I think prices got too high and they've had to come down. So of course people lost money. And you're reading about $100 million transactions, but ...

山东乳山，这个以海景房闻名的地方，正以其惊人的低房价颠覆人们对沿海房产的认知——几万元买套房不再是梦。 河南一对夫妇从未去过乳山，却通过网络拍卖平台花8万元买下了一套70平方米的海景房，并成功办理了过户手续。这套房子位于乳山银滩东部一个小区， 是2006年的建筑，多层4楼没有电梯和暖气。 当地房产中介表示，"这个价格在乳山属于正常水平"。 01 乳山房价实录 在中国房价行情网上，乳山市2025年10月的住宅二手房挂牌均价为4,439元/㎡。 而来自58同城的数据显示，乳山市近一年的房价呈下降趋势，2025年11月二手房均价已降至2,719元/㎡。 不同区域的房价差异明显。乳山海边的住宅大部分修建于2010年左右，"1到3楼的二手房均价大概是2000到3000元，5到6楼的均价一般是1000多元，阁楼的 话只要几百元"。 相比之下，市区房价较银滩更高，"市区的房子均价在每平方米5000元到8000元左右"。 02 "1元起拍"的房产市场 乳山低价房的现象并非个例。2025年6月，全国出现了278套"1元起拍"的房源，其中216套来自山东威海乳山的海景房。 这些房源分散在逾90个小区，并非集中在某一个小区。 这些 ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector is currently experiencing a trend of oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: VICI Properties Inc - VICI Properties reported mixed quarterly results with a 4.4% year-over-year revenue growth and a 5.3% year-over-year growth in AFFO per share [8] - The company announced its 8th consecutive annual dividend increase of $0.0175 per share, representing a 4.0% year-over-year increase [8] - VICI's stock has fallen approximately 8% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $27.98 and an RSI value of 28.8 [8] Group 2: Fermi Inc - Fermi Inc has maintained an Outperform rating from Macquarie analyst Paul Golding, with a price target of $35 [8] - The stock has experienced a significant decline of around 39% over the past month, reaching a 52-week low of $13.64 and an RSI value of 25.4 [8] Group 3: Reitar Logtech Holdings Ltd - Reitar Logtech announced a strategic partnership with Hangzhou Xianmu Technology to develop a global tokenized smart supply chain ecosystem for the foodservice industry [8] - The company's stock has decreased by approximately 20% over the past five days, with a 52-week low of $1.18 and an RSI value of 18.8 [8]

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Gaw Capital, a Hong Kong-based private equity firm, is urgently seeking to extend a property-backed loan due on Monday [1] - This situation highlights broader strains within China's property market [1] Financial Risks & Opportunities - The loan extension talks occurred over the weekend, indicating last-minute negotiations [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property** market and discusses potential new policy stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing the housing sector and boosting consumption [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments Potential Policy Stimulus - Policymakers in China are considering additional stimulus measures for the property market, including: - Mortgage interest subsidies - Income tax rebates for mortgage holders - Tax rebates for property transactions - If implemented, these measures are expected to positively impact housing transaction volumes, prices, and household consumption [1][6]. Impact on Property Prices - Scenario analysis indicates that the proposed stimulus could lead to property price reductions of **7%-25%** for new housing transactions, with the majority of the impact (5%-15%) stemming from mortgage interest subsidies [2][7]. - A **1 percentage point (pp)** reduction in mortgage rates could align mortgage costs with average rental expenses, suggesting property prices may approach "fair values" [2][9]. Consumption Effects - The proposed stimulus measures would have a more significant impact if applied to existing mortgages rather than just new ones. - Current mortgage debt services account for approximately **6%** of households' disposable income in China, similar to developed markets like the US. - Estimated annual savings from interest subsidies and tax rebates for existing mortgage holders could reach around **Rmb560 billion** (approximately **2%** of total household debt services and income tax paid in 2024) by 2026-2027 [3][6]. Risks to Banks and Market Stability - If banks provide mortgage subsidies instead of government fiscal support, it could negatively affect their profitability. - The risk of property price stabilization in higher-tier cities by **2H2026E** is skewed to the downside due to: - Accelerating property price cuts in secondary markets - Slowing sales in the higher-end segment of new home markets - Increasing housing supply with defaulted mortgages [4][6]. Summary of Potential Savings from Stimulus - The total potential savings from the proposed stimulus measures could amount to **Rmb840 billion** annually, if both new and existing mortgage holders benefit from the subsidies [7][15]. - Breakdown of savings from different stimulus measures includes: - Mortgage interest subsidies: **Rmb437 billion** - Income tax rebates: **Rmb187 billion** - Deed tax exemptions: **Rmb180 billion** [7][15]. Additional Considerations - The analysis includes various assumptions regarding mortgage interest rates, loan-to-value ratios, and the share of mortgage balances that are tax-deductible. - The report emphasizes the importance of new policy stimulus in stabilizing the property market outlook and enhancing overall consumption in 2026 [6][15]. Other Important Information - The report includes detailed exhibits and data supporting the analysis, such as the impact of mortgage interest subsidies on household savings and property price trends [7][9][15]. - The potential implications of these policies on the broader economy and consumer behavior are also highlighted, indicating a significant interconnection between the property market and overall economic health in China [1][6].

Summary of the Conference Call on Mortgage Relief in China Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese housing market** and the potential for **mortgage relief** measures to stabilize housing prices and listings [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Housing Market Conditions**: - Housing prices in China have seen a significant decline, leading to a feedback loop of "higher listings/lower prices" which exacerbates deflationary pressures [3][10]. - A deeper downturn in the housing market poses risks to the forecast of shallower deflation in 2026 and lowflation in 2027 [3][10]. 2. **Proposed Policy Measures**: - The Chinese government is considering **interest subsidies** to reduce mortgage costs without negatively impacting banks' net interest margins (NIM) [4][10]. - This approach is seen as a targeted rate cut that avoids the limitations of conventional rate cuts [4][10]. 3. **Cost Implications**: - A broad-based 100 basis points (bps) subsidy could cost approximately **Rmb 400 billion** annually, while a targeted subsidy for new mortgages would cost around **Rmb 100 billion** per year [6][10]. 4. **Policy Design Considerations**: - The effectiveness of the subsidy program will depend on its **scope** (whether it covers new or existing mortgages), **magnitude** (the size of the subsidy), and **duration** [5][10][11]. - A sufficiently broad and generous program could support new home sales and alleviate pressures in the secondary market, helping to stabilize prices [10][12]. 5. **Potential Impact**: - If implemented broadly (covering all mortgages) and generously (100 bps for five years), the program could significantly boost new home sales and ease supply pressures in the secondary market, thereby reducing price headwinds [12][10]. - This would align with the expectation of narrower deflation in 2026 and a clearer exit from deflation in 2027, particularly as housing prices stabilize in higher-tier cities [12][10]. 6. **Risks to Monitor**: - A narrow scope of the subsidy (only covering new mortgages) may lead to limited improvements in new home sales, failing to offset secondary market listings and providing minimal support to prices [13][10]. - Delays in execution and entrenched expectations of falling prices could undermine the effectiveness of the policy [13][10]. Other Important Considerations - The program's design and implementation details remain unclear, making immediate action unlikely [10][11]. - The policy direction is consistent with the forecast for "less deflation" in 2026 and a transition towards lowflation in 2027 [10][12].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing data from October 2025 and projecting challenges into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Sales Decline**: Home sales in October experienced a significant decline, with primary sales volume in 65 cities dropping by **32% year-on-year** and secondary sales volume in 33 cities declining by **33% year-on-year**. This is a stark contrast to the previous month where primary sales were down only **8%** and secondary sales were up **10%** [3]. 2. **Accelerated Price Decline**: The **NBS 70-city primary home prices** fell by **2.6% year-on-year** and **0.5% month-on-month**, while secondary prices dropped by **5.4% year-on-year** and **0.7% month-on-month**. Tier 1 cities saw a deeper decline in secondary prices, with a **0.9% month-on-month** drop [4]. 3. **Inventory Levels**: Primary inventory months increased to **26 times** in October, indicating a rise in unsold properties. Tier 1 cities saw inventory rise to **15.4 times**, tier 2 to **25.3 times**, and tier 3 to **35.5 times** [6]. 4. **Land Sales**: Land sales in 300 cities dropped by **21% year-on-year** in gross floor area (GFA) and **26% year-on-year** in value, contributing to a year-to-date decline of **11.2%** in GFA [7]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The residential sentiment is rapidly worsening, influenced by high inventory levels and reactive policy measures. This sentiment is expected to persist into the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises a **defensive and selective investment strategy**, recommending accumulation of quality State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) with high alpha opportunities, such as **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **C&D (1908.HK)**, which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields. **Seazen (601155.SS)** is also highlighted for its robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [2]. Additional Insights - **Client Engagement**: Client visits increased by **3% year-on-year** and **3% month-on-month**, indicating a slight uptick in market engagement despite the overall negative sentiment [5]. - **Listing Volume**: New secondary listings softened to **-7% month-on-month** and **-7% year-on-year**, while total listings remained stable with a **0.1% month-on-month** increase [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices, rising inventory levels, and strategic investment recommendations.