Group 1: Ross Stores, Inc. - Ross Stores reported quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, beating the Street estimate of $1.44, with quarterly revenue of $4.99 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.97 billion [1][2] - The company issued second-quarter GAAP EPS guidance in the range of $1.40 to $1.55, which is below the analyst estimate of $1.65 [2] - Following the guidance, Ross Stores shares fell 11.2% to $135.00 in pre-market trading [2] Group 2: Other Companies - Bicara Therapeutics Inc. shares dipped 20.2% to $12.50 after announcing mixed results from a phase 1/1b trial for ficerafusp alfa [4] - Deckers Outdoor Corporation shares fell 16% to $105.90 after reporting fourth-quarter financial results and expecting first-quarter revenue of $890 million to $910 million, below estimates of $925.86 million [4] - Gyre Therapeutics, Inc. shares fell 14.4% to $9.60 due to a $20.0 million public offering of common stock [4] - Hallador Energy Company shares tumbled 9.7% to $17.00 in pre-market trading [4] - Xerox Holdings Corporation shares dipped 9.6% to $4.62 after reducing its quarterly dividend from $0.125 per share to $0.025 [4] - MINISO Group Holding Limited shares fell 8.5% to $20.30 following third-quarter results [4] - Workday, Inc. shares declined 6.5% to $254.40 after issuing second-quarter sales guidance below estimates [4] - Navitas Semiconductor Corporation shares dipped 6.3% to $4.73 after a significant jump of 164% on Thursday due to collaboration with Nvidia [4]

Market Overview - Market indexes showed resilience against high bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield at +5.05%, the highest in 18 years, but moderated from previous spikes [1] - Major indexes finished flat, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 remaining unchanged, while the Nasdaq closed up +53 points (+0.28%) [2] - Despite being in the red over the past five trading days, the indexes have seen double-digit gains over the past month [2] Quarterly Earnings Summary - **Workday (WDAY)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.23 per share on $2.4 billion in sales, beating previous figures of $1.99 per share and $2.22 billion. However, shares fell -5% due to steady guidance and reduced capex spending [3] - **Deckers Outdoor (DECK)**: Earnings of $1.00 per share exceeded the Zacks consensus of 57 cents, with revenues of $1.02 billion surpassing expectations of $988.6 million. Shares dropped -11% due to lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter and full-year guidance held back due to tariff issues [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Surpassed earnings expectations with $11.65 per share against a consensus of $10.89, and revenues of $7.75 billion exceeding the $7.54 billion forecast. Shares rose +5% following a significant increase in next-quarter guidance driven by Credit Karma growth [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Beat earnings estimates by 4 cents with $1.47 per share on $4.98 billion in revenues, slightly above consensus. Same-store sales were flat but improved from a projected decline. Shares fell -9% due to lower next-quarter earnings guidance attributed to tariff pressures [5] - **AutoDesk (ADSK)**: Reported Q1 earnings of $2.29 per share, beating the anticipated $2.14, with revenues of $1.63 billion slightly above the forecast of $1.61 billion. Shares gained +5% due to positive next-quarter guidance [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][36] - Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33 compared to the previous year [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue increased by 24% to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue growing 24% and DTC revenue rising 23% [11][36] - UGG brand revenue grew by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue increasing 15% and DTC revenue rising 11% [24][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [11] - UGG's international revenue increased by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and expanding international presence [9][10] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to enhance product innovation and expand into lifestyle and fitness categories [19][23] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty due to shifting U.S. trade policy but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt [8] - The company expects fiscal year 2026 to face challenges, including potential tariff impacts of up to $150 million on cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects for both HOKA and UGG [49] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and confidence in its strategic plan [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine, who retired after 14 years of service [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC? - Management noted that the slowdown was due to unique factors in the U.S. market, including model changeovers and increased promotions, but expressed confidence in international performance [55][56] Question: Is mid-teens growth for HOKA still possible? - Management indicated that while they are not providing formal guidance, they remain optimistic about mid-teens growth based on strong international performance and brand awareness [60][64] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of tariff costs? - The $150 million tariff cost is a gross estimate, and management is exploring pricing adjustments and cost-sharing strategies to mitigate the impact [75][76] Question: How will HOKA's growth be split between DTC and wholesale? - Management emphasized that the growth framework includes strategic expansion of wholesale distribution, which is expected to drive consumer engagement and brand awareness [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7][35] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][35] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 30% year-over-year to $6.33 [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue also increasing by 24% [12][35] - UGG brand revenue increased by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue rising by 15% [23][35] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue for HOKA increased by 23%, while UGG's DTC revenue rose by 11% [12][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [12] - U.S. revenue for HOKA rose by 17%, totaling just under $1.5 billion [12] - UGG's international revenue grew by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and innovation [10][11] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to expand its market share through innovation and increased brand awareness [19][22] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and its potential impact on consumer spending [29][31] - The company expects to face challenges in fiscal year 2026 due to tariff impacts, estimating an increase of up to $150 million in cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of both HOKA and UGG brands [29][41] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow generation [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC - Management noted that the slowdown was due to several unique factors affecting the U.S. market, but international DTC performance remained strong [54][56] Question: Potential for mid-teens growth for HOKA - Management expressed confidence in HOKA's growth potential, emphasizing that the brand's international growth would likely outpace U.S. growth [60][66] Question: Transition to new models and tariff costs - Management confirmed that the $150 million tariff cost is a gross number, with potential mitigations through pricing strategies [76][78]

Core Insights - Allbirds, Inc. has signed distribution agreements to expand its presence in Central and South America, as well as Southern Europe [1][2] - Kiwi Life Group and Trendy King have been appointed as exclusive distributors for Allbirds in their respective regions [2][4] Group 1: Distribution Agreements - Allbirds has partnered with Kiwi Life Group for exclusive distribution in Central America, the Caribbean, Chile, and Colombia [2] - Trendy King will serve as the exclusive distributor for Allbirds in Spain and Portugal [2] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The company aims to build a strong presence in new geographies to drive long-term profitable growth [3] - Allbirds is focused on enhancing its product, marketing, and customer experience initiatives [3] Group 3: Distributor Insights - Kiwi Life Group is dedicated to introducing innovative footwear brands to Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing sustainability [3] - Trendy King has over 30 years of experience in the fashion industry and specializes in multichannel commercial solutions [4] Group 4: Company Overview - Allbirds is a modern lifestyle footwear brand founded in 2015, known for its commitment to sustainability and comfort [5] - The brand utilizes natural materials such as Merino wool, tree fiber, and sugarcane in its products [5]

Core Insights - Investors closely monitor the trades of billionaire hedge fund managers, as hedge funds provide quarterly updates and file 13F reports detailing their trades [1] Group 1: Pershing Square Capital and Nike - Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital sold its position in Nike, which previously accounted for about 11% of its total portfolio, making it the sixth-largest position [4] - Ackman cited three main reasons for selling Nike: a shift to direct-to-consumer strategy harming wholesale partnerships, a merchandising structure that neglected sports, and overproduction of popular franchises instead of focusing on innovation [5] - Despite selling, Ackman converted Nike investments into call options, allowing for potential gains while minimizing losses, believing that a successful turnaround could yield returns more than double that of owning common stock [6] Group 2: Nike's Current Performance - Nike's sales were down 9% year-over-year in the fiscal 2025 third quarter, with a 12% drop in direct-to-consumer channels contributing to a 3.3 percentage-point decrease in gross margin [7][8] - Ackman's strategy indicates a belief that Nike's stock may decline further before a rebound, allowing for significant profits when the turnaround occurs [8] Group 3: Pershing Square Capital and Uber - Ackman initiated a position in Uber in the first quarter of 2025, which has become the top position in the portfolio, accounting for nearly 18% [10] - He noted a decline in Uber's valuation at the end of 2024 as an opportunity, and believes the stock remains undervalued despite its 53% increase this year [10] - Ackman praised Uber's management, low costs, and growth potential, citing a 20% compounded annual growth in bookings since 2019, currently at $160 billion, and projecting earnings growth of at least 30% in the medium term [12] Group 4: Uber's Market Position and Future - Ackman addressed concerns regarding autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially threatening Uber's business model, arguing that AVs are still in development and unlikely to dominate ridesharing soon [13] - He emphasized Uber's dynamic supply model as a competitive advantage, suggesting that when AVs become safer, they can be integrated into Uber's existing framework [13] - Ackman views Uber as a long-term investment opportunity, particularly for those willing to accept some risk [14]

Core Insights - Crocs, Inc. has appointed Terence Reilly as Executive Vice President and Chief Brand Officer, overseeing marketing and communications for both Crocs and HEYDUDE brands, effective immediately [1][2] - Reilly has a strong background in brand management and will focus on enhancing brand identity, consumer engagement, and storytelling to strengthen the company's global narrative [2][4] - Andrew Rees, CEO, will serve as interim President for HEYDUDE until a permanent structure is established [3] Company Strategy - The new role for Reilly aims to elevate creative direction and deepen consumer connectivity globally [2][4] - Reilly's leadership has already shown positive results for the HEYDUDE brand, indicating a strategic focus and authentic consumer connections [4] - The company is positioning itself for sustainable long-term brand growth through innovative strategies and enhanced consumer engagement [4] Brand Overview - Crocs, Inc. is recognized as a leader in innovative casual footwear, with products sold in over 80 countries through various channels [5] - The company combines comfort and style, appealing to a wide consumer base [5]

Group 1 - Deckers Outdoor Corp (NYSE: DECK) is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on May 22, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of 60 cents per share and revenue of $1 billion, indicating a 28% decline in earnings year-over-year and a 4% sales growth compared to last year's figures of 83 cents per share and $960 million in revenue [1] - The company primarily owns the Ugg and Hoka shoe brands, which account for approximately 68% and 29% of total sales, respectively, with Ugg sales increasing by 16% and Hoka sales increasing by 24% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 [2] - Deckers has a market capitalization of $19 billion, with revenue for the past twelve months at $4.9 billion, operating profits of $1.1 billion, and net income of $942 million [2] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that DECK stock has risen 61% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 9.0% and a maximum recorded rise of 19% [1][6] - Over the past five years, there have been 18 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring approximately 61% of the time, which increases to 67% when considering the last three years [6] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can provide a less risky trading approach, particularly if the correlation between 1D and 5D returns is strong [4]

HEYDUDE, the casual footwear brand that Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX ) acquired for $2.5B in early ’22, has struggled to increase revenues since ’23. Management kept reducing FY guidance every quarter for two years straight, which weighed heavily on the stock's performance. I have discussed some ofI am an experienced investor with a generalist approach to the markets, but over the years, I have developed particular expertise in several key sectors. My investment philosophy is rooted in identifying stocks with ...

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Companies such as Birkenstock, Cisco Systems, and Dynatrace reported earnings that exceeded expectations, leading to increased investor confidence [1][16] - Birkenstock's fiscal Q2 2025 earnings showed a sales growth of over 18% year-over-year and an adjusted operating margin increase of 140 basis points [5] - Cisco Systems reported an 11% sales growth and increased its full-year revenue and earnings expectations, with AI infrastructure orders reaching $600 million [8][9] Group 2: Analyst Reactions and Price Targets - Following the earnings reports, analysts raised price targets for Birkenstock, with an average target of $72 per share, indicating a potential upside of 28% from its May 19 closing price [6] - Cisco's average price target among analysts was updated to just under $70 per share, suggesting a nearly 10% upside from its recent closing price [10] - Dynatrace's average price target was set at over $62, implying a potential rise of nearly 16% from its May 19 closing price [15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The strong fundamentals demonstrated by these companies in uncertain market conditions highlight their potential for future growth and profitability [16] - Analysts believe that the market's re-evaluation of these stocks may be in the early stages, especially if broader market sentiment continues to improve [16]