Group 1 - The Shanghai 50 Index (000016) increased by 0.46% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains from China Shipbuilding (up 9.05%) and other companies like Haier Smart Home and Longi Green Energy [2] - The Shanghai 50 ETF (510050) rose by 0.58%, marking its fifth consecutive increase, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the lowest among comparable funds [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 50 Index included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and China Merchants Bank, with Kweichow Moutai holding the highest weight at 12.31% [4] Group 2 - Recent financial policies from the People's Bank of China, financial regulatory authorities, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to stabilize the market and expectations, with April's import and export data showing strong resilience [4] - The release of liquidity and a decrease in financing costs are expected to directly benefit the real economy, with a rebound in social financing growth anticipated in the second quarter, particularly benefiting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [5] - The overall outlook for the Chinese economy remains positive, characterized by stability, advantages, resilience, and potential, suggesting a favorable development trend for the capital market with sustained inflows of long-term funds [5]

今日早参 2025 年 5 月 12 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美英贸易协议框架能作"范例"吗？ 5 月 8 日美国宣布与英国就贸易协议框架达成一致，这是 4 月 2 日对等关税 宣布以来美国与其他贸易伙伴达成的首个贸易协议框架。虽然目前为止英美 贸易协议框架目前仍然缺少细节，覆盖范围有限，但市场由此对美国和其他 国家达成较为温和的关税协议框架预期升高、风险偏好有所回升。然而，值 得注意的是，美英有特殊的战略伙伴关系，两国均为贸易逆差国，英国对美 贸易亦为逆差，且英国关键商品对美出口总额较小。所以，美英达成协议， 尤其就钢铝和汽车出口关税降级形成共识，有其特殊性，他国难以简单复 制。我们预计其他贸易大国如欧盟、日本等与美国的贸易谈判可能需要更长 的时间。对于中国而言，短期降低关税冲击强度的必要性上升，两国或达成 阶段性协议（参见《推演美中关税"降级"的可能性和路径》，2025/4/28）， 但两国就贸易问题形成长期共识仍有较大阻力。 风险提示：关税短期降温后再度反复，贸易共识阻力超预期。 研报发布 ...

5月8日晚间，中国船舶（600150）(600150.SH)与中国重工（601989）(601989.SH)双双发布公告，上交 所已受理中国船舶发行股份购买资产的申请。中国船舶将通过换股方式吸收合并中国重工。 长江商报记者注意到，截至今年一季度末，中国船舶和中国重工的总资产分别为1812.38亿元、2251.52 亿元，合计超4000亿元。 全球船舶业的重大并购迎来最新进展。 目前，双方合并获上交所受理，表明南北船合并更进一步。有业内人士认为，本次重组将整合中国船 舶、中国重工的优势科研生产资源和供应链资源，两大船舶巨头合并，有望打造出全球领先船舶工业企 业，进一步提升中国在全球船舶市场的地位和影响力，并推动中国船舶工业高质量发展。 双方业绩均稳健向好 业绩方面，今年一季度，中国船舶和中国重工实现营业收入分别为158.58亿元、122.16亿元，保持增 长；归母净利润分别为11.27亿元、5.19亿元，双双实现翻倍提升。两大造船企业首季合计盈利16.46亿 元。 造船业"巨无霸"来了 中国船舶和中国重工的合并，可追溯至2019年10月。 回溯公告，中国船舶工业集团和中国船舶重工集团联合重组成立中国船舶集团有限 ...

经合并双方协商确定，本次换股吸收合并中，中国船舶的换股价格按照定价基准日前120个交易日的股 票交易均价确定为37.84元/股。中国重工的换股价格按照定价基准日前 120个交易日的股票交易均价确 中国船舶工业股份有限公司（600150.SH，以下简称"中国船舶"）与中国船舶重工股份有限公司 （601989.SH，以下简称"中国重工"）重大资产重组事项再迎新进展。 5月8日晚间，中国船舶与中国重工同时发布公告称，依据相关规定，上交所对此前申请文件进行了核 对，认为申请文件齐备，符合法定形式，决定予以受理并依法进行审核。此前，中国船舶和中国重工筹 划重大资产重组，中国船舶拟向中国重工全体换股股东发行A股股票的方式换股吸收合并中国重工。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，此次中国船舶与中国重工筹划重大资产重组，主要目的是整合主要船舶总 装业务，减少上市公司同业竞争，并打造世界一流造船企业。2024年度，中国船舶与中国重工营收净利 均实现增长，且扣非净利润均盈利，结束了此前长期亏损态势。 重大资产重组迎新进展 对于此次重大资产重组事项，2024年9月，中国船舶和中国重工同时发布停牌公告。两家公司表示，为 进一步聚焦国家重大战 ...

■朱宝琛 从上市公司披露的情况来看，以横向或垂直整合为目的的并购事件不断涌现，数量持续增长。同时，不少上市公司称，开 展并购重组是为了拓宽业务领域，发挥协同效应，实现业务整合和产业链延伸。这反映出，越来越多的上市公司通过筹划高质 量产业并购，优化资产结构和业务布局，提升核心竞争力，推动产业向更高层次发展。 第二，推动上市公司并购重组向新求质、向智寻进。 "并购六条"明确，"支持运作规范的上市公司围绕产业转型升级、寻求第二增长曲线等需求开展符合商业逻辑的跨行业并 购，加快向新质生产力转型步伐"。 事实上，在"并购六条"发布后新增的重大重组案例中，不少都指向了"硬科技"领域。这有助于相关上市公司通过并购重组 快速获得关键技术，降低研发成本，加速创新成果转化；有助于相关上市公司优化产业链、供应链布局，实现补链强链，开拓 第二增长曲线，提升公司的投资价值。 在看到一系列政策激发并购重组市场活力的同时，也要看到，在实践中仍有一些困惑待解。如果政策能给出更明晰的预 期，无疑将进一步提升市场各参与者的信心，推动更多优质企业通过并购重组的方式集聚优势资源、做强做优。 5月8日晚间，中国船舶工业股份有限公司和中国船舶重工股份有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, focusing on domestic demand recovery and opportunities in equipment exports [1]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in engineering machinery, with a projected revenue increase of 3% in 2024 and 11% in Q1 2025 for selected companies [1]. - The report highlights the importance of key sectors such as general automation, humanoid robots, and testing services, indicating potential growth opportunities in these areas [2][3][9]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 290.5 billion CNY in 2024 and 80.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% and 11% respectively [1]. - Key drivers include rural water conservancy projects and a global interest rate reduction cycle, leading to a recovery in domestic and export demand [1]. General Automation - The general automation sector is expected to achieve a revenue of 59.25 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [2]. - The injection molding machine segment shows promising growth, with companies like Haitian International and Yizumi projected to achieve revenue increases of 23% and 24% respectively [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is entering a golden development period, with a focus on dexterous hands and lightweight materials [3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in micro-screw components and sensors, which are crucial for the functionality of dexterous hands [3]. Testing Services - The testing services sector is projected to generate 46.8 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, despite a 4% decline year-on-year [9]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sector, particularly when excluding companies heavily involved in medical testing [9]. Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is expected to see a revenue of 47.3 billion CNY in 2024, with a 2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The report notes a shift towards overseas markets, which are expected to grow by 7% [4]. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.22 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [10]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic equipment manufacturers in capturing market share as the industry continues to grow [10]. Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to generate 84.86 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a slight increase of 2% year-on-year [11]. - The report suggests that leading companies in this sector are well-positioned to navigate through the current challenges [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Views - The machinery equipment industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and increased exports, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and oil services [1][4] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of engineering machinery companies, with projected revenue growth of 3% in 2024 and 11% in Q1 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of smart logistics in the forklift sector, suggesting a second growth curve for companies in this space [4] Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The analysis of 13 A-share listed companies in the engineering machinery sector shows a total revenue of 290.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - The net profit for these companies is projected to reach 20.3 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 26% increase year-on-year [1] - Key companies to watch include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong [1] General Automation - The industrial automation sector is expected to see a revenue of 592.48 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [2] - The injection molding machine segment is projected to grow significantly, with companies like Haitian International and Yizumi showing strong revenue growth [2][22] - The report identifies opportunities in the FA automation segment, particularly for companies like Yihada [2][21] Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 473 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [4] - The report notes a shift towards overseas markets, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 7% [4] - Companies such as Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group are highlighted as key players [4] Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a total revenue of 732.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [10] - The net profit for semiconductor equipment companies is projected to reach 119 billion CNY, reflecting a 15% increase year-on-year [10] - Key companies include North China Innovation and Zhongwei Technology [10] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 848.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [11] - The report indicates a significant decline in net profit, expected to drop by 57% to 54.8 billion CNY [11] - Companies such as Jingcheng Machinery and High Measurement are recommended for investment [12] Testing Services - The testing services sector is expected to generate revenue of 468 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4% [9] - The net profit for the sector is projected to decrease by 56% to 18 billion CNY [9] - Recommended companies include Huace Testing and Guodian Measurement [9][30]

Group 1: Ride-Hailing Industry Risks - Multiple cities, including Zhengzhou, Xichang, Shenzhen, and Haikou, have issued risk warnings for the ride-hailing industry, indicating market saturation [1] - Zhengzhou's daily operational vehicle ratio is 83.7%, with an average daily income of only 210 yuan per vehicle; Xichang has a taxi ownership of 40.5 per 10,000 people, significantly higher than similar cities [1] - In Shenzhen, the average daily orders per vehicle are only 12.4, while in Haikou, 36% of ride-hailing vehicles have fewer than 5 daily orders, prompting calls for rational risk assessment before entering the market [1] Group 2: Corporate Mergers and Restructuring - The merger between China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry has made substantial progress, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accepting the application for the merger [2] - Following the merger, China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry will be delisted, and all its assets will be inherited by China Shipbuilding, addressing issues of industry competition [2] - Both companies reported significant growth in Q1, with net profits increasing by over 180% year-on-year, reflecting a strategic restructuring trend among state-owned enterprises [2] Group 3: Home Appliance Market Challenges - The home appliance market is expected to recover in 2024 due to policy support, but small appliances continue to face pressure, with significant declines in retail sales for kitchen appliances and electric toothbrushes [3] - Leading brands like Joyoung and Bear have experienced revenue and profit declines, with Joyoung facing its largest drop in five years [3] - The industry struggles with product homogenization, insufficient R&D investment, and ineffective marketing, although some brands are attempting to expand overseas and transform channels [3] Group 4: Executive Compensation in the Energy Sector - In the A-share energy storage sector, over 20 companies reported that their chairpersons' annual salaries exceeded one million yuan, with nearly half seeing salary increases [4] - The top three earners are BYD's Wang Chuanfu (7.655 million yuan), Zhejiang Chint's Nan Cunhui (5.7994 million yuan), and CATL's Zeng Yuqun (5.743 million yuan), with Zeng's salary down 10.36% despite a 15% increase in net profit to 50.7 billion yuan [4] - CATL's energy storage battery business has a gross margin of 26.84%, surpassing that of its power battery segment, while BYD and Chint Electric's performance aligns with their chairpersons' salary growth [4] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Issues - U.S. small business owners are struggling with high tariffs, with one case showing a $3,000 product incurring over $4,600 in tariffs, highlighting the burden of tariff policies [5] - The April CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 0.5%, indicating economic resilience [5] - PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, influenced by declining international commodity prices and weak domestic demand, with expectations of moderate CPI recovery and significant PPI downward pressure [6] Group 6: Corporate Restructuring and Layoffs - Panasonic announced plans to lay off 10,000 employees globally starting in the 2025 fiscal year, with 5,000 in Japan and South Korea, as part of a strategy to terminate unprofitable businesses and consolidate operations [7] - The company's fiscal report for 2024 showed a revenue of 8.46 trillion yen, a 0.5% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of 366.2 billion yen, down 17.5% [7] - The restructuring aims for profit growth by 2026, although a loss of 130 billion yen is anticipated for the 2025 fiscal year [7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强 等 申万宏源宏观 . 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 文 | 赵伟、屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强 事件： 5月9日，海关公布4月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比8.1%、预期0.6%、前值12.4%；进口 （美元计价）同比-0.2%、预期-6.9%、前值-4.3%。 核心观点：领先指标显示，5月"抢出口"或将继续。 4月出口同比回落主因春节错位扰动消退，春节调整后同比明显回升。 4月出口同比（美元计价）较3月 回落4.3pct至8.1%，更多受春节错位扰动消退的影响。经测算，春节错月因素拖累4月出口增速6.7pct。春 节调整后，4月出口同比较3月回升4.0pct至8.1%。 4月出口偏强主因"抢出口"，包括通过新兴经济体"转出口"与通过加墨"转运"，"4月生产-下旬出港-5月中 旬美国到港"的抢出口数据链条均在改善。 从国别数据看，4月对东盟（+17.6pct到21.0%）、对韩国 （+8.1pct至-0.1%）等出口增速均明显上升。从中观指标看，4月制造业PMI生产指数仍维持49.8%的较高 水平。4月中下旬港口外 ...

5月8日晚间，中国船舶（600150）(600150.SH)与中国重工（601989）(601989.SH)双双发布公告，上交所已受理中 国船舶发行股份购买资产的申请。 根据此前公告，中国船舶拟通过换股方式吸收合并中国重工，合并完成后，中国重工将终止上市，中国船舶作为 存续主体，承接中国重工的全部资产与负债。这一动作标志着自2019年南北船集团层面合并后，旗下核心上市平 台的整合正式进入实操阶段。 国企改革专家周丽莎在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，此次重组旨在进一步聚焦国家重大战略和兴装强军主 责主业，加快船舶总装业务的高质量发展。通过整合，两家公司能够集中优势资源，提升在船舶总装领域的核心 竞争力。中国船舶和中国重工在船舶总装领域存在业务重合，重组有助于解决同业竞争问题，避免内部无序竞 争，提高整体运营效率。 "重组后，存续公司将通过市场化手段深化改革，改善治理结构和治理能力，实现产业经营与资本运营的融合发 展，从而提升上市公司的经营效率。"周丽莎进一步表示。 截至5月9日，中国船舶总市值为1350亿元，中国重工总市值为987亿元，两家公司总市值超过2337亿元。 南北船合并更进一步 事实上，这起合并的源 ...