煤炭开采

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煤炭开采行业周报:高库存压力凸显,煤价进一步下跌
EBSCN· 2025-05-12 05:50
2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 高库存压力凸显,煤价进一步下跌 ——煤炭开采行业周报(2025.5.5~2025.5.12) 要点 高库存压力凸显,煤价进一步下跌。(1)截至 5 月 9 日,环渤海港口煤炭库 存 3305.1 万吨,环比+6.50%,同比+42.15%,处于同期最高水平;(2)在高 库存的背景下,本周港口煤价在前段时间横盘后出现了松动下滑的迹象,本周 (5.5-5.9)秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价(5500 大卡周度平均值)为 638 元/吨, 环比-14 元/吨 (-2.18%),港口跌幅大于坑口跌幅,显示出目前下游压力大于 上游,短期需求趋弱导致煤价承压。 本周港口煤价有加速下跌迹象。(1)本周(5.5-5.9)秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓 价(5500 大卡周度平均值)为 638 元/吨,环比-14 元/吨 (-2.18%);(2)陕 西榆林动力混煤坑口价格(5800 大卡)周度平均值为 510 元/吨,环比-6 元/吨 (-1.21%);(3)澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格(5500 大卡周度平均 值)为 70 美元/吨,环比-0.64%;(4)欧洲天然气期货结算价(DUTCH ...
财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理-20250512
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-12 05:42
证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 12 年 月 日 投资策略 财报过后,供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 一、策略专题:供给出清、出口链与高股息再梳理 4 月 30 日,A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报披露完毕,我们结合最新数据 对供给出清、出口链与高股息行业进行再梳理。 1.3 高股息:交运与消费部分行业股息率有明显抬升 我们结合各行业 2025 年现金分红情况与最新的 PE( TTM)对预期股息率 进行测算,高股息重点行业包括煤炭开采、油气开采、炼化与贸易、航运 港口、白色家电等。值得提示的是,今年交运与消费部分行业股息率相对 上年有明显抬升,包括航运港口、物流、白色家电、装修建材等。 二、策略观点:变盘仍未结束,静待方向明确 大势研判:本周 A 股市场继续凸显韧性,ETF 保持净流出态势反映护盘资 金入场力度减少,而 A 股仍然稳中有升,同时成交量能保持在万亿以上。 此前我们指出,受海内外因素影响,市场处于变盘点,需要密切关注风格 是否出现切换:特朗普对华态度出现缓和、4 月政治局会议落地、A 股 2024 年报与 2025 一季报将完整披露。而目前来看,我们 ...
煤炭开采行业周报:高库存压力凸显,煤价进一步下跌-20250512
EBSCN· 2025-05-12 04:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% week-on-week and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [2][3] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the sector and favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal) averaged 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% week-on-week and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The Bohai Rim port coal inventory reached 33.051 million tons, reflecting a 6.50% increase week-on-week and a 42.15% increase year-on-year [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points week-on-week and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points week-on-week and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, up 0.1% week-on-week and 4.7% year-on-year [4] Key Company Financials - China Shenhua (601088.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 2.50 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 16, and is rated "Accumulate" [6] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) is expected to have an EPS of 1.31 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8, also rated "Accumulate" [6]
数智技术创新赋能超级矿山(科技名家笔谈)
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-05-12 03:17
张武昌绘 来源:人民日报海外版 作者王国法肖像画。 在新疆准东宜化五彩湾一号矿控制室,工作人员对矿区车辆运输状态进行动态监管。 矿业是人类社会繁荣发展不可或缺的基础产业。从石器时代到工业革命,再到信息时代,每一次文明的 跃升都离不开矿产资源的支撑。正如英国地质学家查尔斯·莱尔所言:"人类的历史,就是一部矿产资源 的开发史。" 然而,现代矿业开发面临各种复杂科学技术难题和自然环境的挑战,正所谓"登天容易,入地难",随着 浅层资源逐步枯竭,深地、深海、复杂地质条件开采成为必然选择。传统的粗放式矿山开发模式难以满 足安全、高效和绿色的开发要求。在此背景下,数智技术加快与矿山开发技术深度融合,正推动矿业从 人工作业向无人化智能开采跨越,开启超级矿山的壮美图景。 笔者作为煤炭无人化开采数智技术全国重点实验主任,不仅见证了中国在智慧矿山领域日新月异的技术 变革,而且带领科研团队为推动矿业数智化进程作出了应有的贡献。多年来,我与团队成员致力于煤炭 无人化开采理论和技术创新研究,建立了煤矿智能化技术体系架构并使其不断完善,取得了关键装备研 发突破,实现了从跟跑到领跑的重大跨越,推动了智能化煤矿示范建设模式创新。 从经验驱动到 ...
4月国内物价数据释放积极信号
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-12 00:41
Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]
国海证券晨会纪要-20250512
Guohai Securities· 2025-05-11 23:30
Group 1: Coal Industry Analysis - The performance of coal companies is expected to decline in 2024, with a projected total revenue of 1,359.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 199.56 billion yuan, down 17.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The average selling price of coal for 27 listed coal companies is expected to be 597 yuan per ton in 2024, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, while the average sales cost is projected to be 323 yuan per ton, down 0.9% year-on-year [4][5] - The average gross profit margin for 28 coal companies is expected to be 28.5% in 2024, a decline of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment [7][8] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Tianyu Digital Science and Advertising Marketing is expected to see a significant reduction in losses in 2024, with a revenue of 1.579 billion yuan, down 10.38% year-on-year, and a net loss of 118 million yuan, a substantial improvement from the previous year's loss [12][13] - Bona Film Group's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.461 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.12% year-on-year, with a net loss of 867 million yuan, indicating challenges in the film market [17][18] - The company is actively exploring AI applications in film production, which may enhance operational efficiency and content generation [20] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the health of the banking system and reducing the cost of bank liabilities, which may alleviate pressure on interest margins and credit risks [25][26] - The report suggests that state-owned enterprise equity can support government debt expansion, indicating ongoing fiscal space for investment [25][26] Group 4: Robotics Industry Developments - Huawei's investment in Qianxun Intelligent Technology marks a significant move into the humanoid robotics sector, aiming to develop advanced humanoid robots and algorithms [29][37] - The humanoid robotics industry is expected to experience significant growth, with various companies actively developing and iterating products, indicating a potential market expansion beyond traditional sectors [37][38]
煤渣倾倒耕地 多年难以恢复(来信调查)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-11 22:30
河南洛阳市新安县正村镇白墙村村民 图② 编辑同志: 2016年前,有人多次把煤渣随意倾倒在我们村东头的耕地里。2016年后,虽然没有再倒煤渣了,但原来 的煤渣一直没完全清除,仍留在地里,共有10多处。我们担心这些煤渣不仅影响庄稼生长,还会污染土 壤和地下水。希望有关部门尽早清理废弃煤渣,还我们一个良好的生态环境。 图① 村民反映,随意倾倒煤渣影响庄稼收成,还可能造成地下水和土壤污染 按照来信提供的信息,记者近日来到河南洛阳市新安县正村镇白墙村,看到村东边1公里外,坐落着以 煤炭开采为主营业务之一的新义矿业有限公司(以下简称"新义公司")。一条东南—西北向的公路上, 不时有装载着煤炭的卡车驶过。 在新义公司北侧,这条运煤公路的起点,记者远远望见一些土地是黑色的。这是一处读者来信里所说的 煤渣倾倒地,煤渣让这片土地呈现黑色(见图①)。有的煤渣成堆堆放在路边;有的平铺在地里,形成 20至60厘米不等的厚厚的煤土层。 "记得2013年的一天,一家企业的负责人找到我,要把我家土地用来堆放煤渣,同时给些钱作为补 偿。"村民赵丽(化名)一家有5口人,共有3亩1分耕地,本就人多地少,加上当时地里种着的小麦还未 成熟,她当即拒 ...
煤炭开采行业周报:跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 12:23
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 煤炭开采 跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠 行情回顾(2025.5.6~2025.5.9): 中信煤炭指数 3,191.92 点,上涨 1.47%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.53pct,位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 近期,煤炭上市公司的 24 年年报&25 年一季报已披露完毕,我们从另外一个视角 对相关公司财报进行解析,总结如下: 谁是现金王? ✓ "账面净现金"前 3:神华、陕煤、晋控; ✓ "账面净现金/净利"前 3:晋控、潞安、恒源; 谁的负债低? ✓ "资产负债率"最低前 3:神华、晋控、电投; ✓ "资本负债率"最低前 3:潞安、晋控、神华; 谁的家底厚? ✓ "专项储备"绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、潞安; ✓ "吨煤专项储备"前 3:潞安、淮矿、恒源; 谁的潜力大? ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3:昊华、伊泰、淮矿; 谁是分红王? ✓ 近 3 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、兖矿; ✓ 近 3 年比例前 3:冀中、神华、广汇; ✓ 24 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、中煤; ✓ 24 年比例前 3:冀中、广汇、伊泰; ✓ ...
煤炭开采行业周报:跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠-20250511
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 12:18
跌价利空钝化,退潮方现珍珠 行情回顾(2025.5.6~2025.5.9): 中信煤炭指数 3,191.92 点,上涨 1.47%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.53pct,位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 近期,煤炭上市公司的 24 年年报&25 年一季报已披露完毕,我们从另外一个视角 对相关公司财报进行解析,总结如下: 谁是现金王? ✓ "账面净现金"前 3:神华、陕煤、晋控; ✓ "账面净现金/净利"前 3:晋控、潞安、恒源; 谁的负债低? ✓ "资产负债率"最低前 3:神华、晋控、电投; ✓ "资本负债率"最低前 3:潞安、晋控、神华; 谁的家底厚? ✓ "专项储备"绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、潞安; ✓ "吨煤专项储备"前 3:潞安、淮矿、恒源; 谁的潜力大? ✓ 利润释放潜力前 3:昊华、伊泰、淮矿; 谁是分红王? ✓ 近 3 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、兖矿; ✓ 近 3 年比例前 3:冀中、神华、广汇; ✓ 24 年绝对额前 3:神华、陕煤、中煤; ✓ 24 年比例前 3:冀中、广汇、伊泰; ✓ 静态股息率前 3:伊泰、冀中、广汇; 24 年&25Q1 业绩均优于行业水平:电投、新集、神华、中 ...
煤炭开采行业周报:4月进口煤量继续减量,煤价继续探底-20250511
Guohai Securities· 2025-05-11 11:32
Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Recommended" [7][78] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-side constraint, while demand may fluctuate in the short term, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [7][78] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies as high dividend and cash cow assets, especially in light of recent market changes and government support for major coal enterprises [7][77] - Key companies in the coal sector are characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, substantial dividends, and a high safety margin [7][78] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices at ports have decreased by 22 CNY/ton year-on-year, with port inventory increasing [14][15] - Production in major coal-producing areas has increased, with capacity utilization in the Sanxi region rising by 0.69 percentage points [14][21] - April coal imports totaled 37.825 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [14][28] - Demand remains weak due to high inventory levels at power plants, with daily consumption showing mixed trends [14][31] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production has stabilized, with capacity utilization rising by 0.45 percentage points to 89.0% [39][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port increased by 281 vehicles week-on-week [39][44] - Coking coal supply and demand are marginally loose, with inventories at production enterprises rising by 14.84 million tons [39][76] 3. Coke - The production rate of coking plants has increased, with capacity utilization rising by 0.29 percentage points to 75.83% [53][76] - Despite a slight increase in coke inventory, it remains at a low level with no significant pressure [53][66] - The average profit per ton of coke has risen to approximately 1 CNY, an increase of 7 CNY week-on-week [57][76] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices have remained stable, with supply exceeding demand and no new purchasing needs from power users [71][72] 5. Key Companies and Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [7][78] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring iron and steel production, as well as the consumption of steel and coking coal [39][76]