Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and raises the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, reflecting a 22% discount for Ganfeng's A-shares, based on improved liquidity in the H-share market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is expected to record net profits from 2025 to 2027, in contrast to a net loss in 2024 [1] - Daiwa has revised its lithium price forecasts for Ganfeng, expecting average prices of RMB 73,000 and RMB 79,000 per ton for the next two years, up from previous estimates of RMB 70,000 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to the latest supply-demand analysis, global lithium supply is projected to be in surplus by 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons in the next two years, down from a surplus of 124,000 tons last year [1] - The firm believes that lithium prices in China will stabilize between RMB 75,000 and RMB 90,000 per ton next year, which is higher than earlier predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, anticipating a return to net profit from 2025 to 2027 after a net loss in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The latest supply-demand analysis indicates a projected global lithium oversupply of 76,000 tons in 2025 and 54,000 tons in 2026, which is lower than last year's oversupply of 124,000 tons [1] Price Forecast - The firm believes that lithium prices in China will stabilize between CNY 75,000 to CNY 90,000 per ton next year, which is higher than the previous forecast of an average selling price of CNY 70,000 per ton for Ganfeng Lithium in the next two years [1] - The price forecast for Ganfeng Lithium's lithium per ton has been adjusted to CNY 73,000 and CNY 79,000 for the next two years, leading to an increase in revenue projections for the company [1]

大和维持赣锋锂业(01772)的"跑输大市"评级，目标价从23港元提升至53港元，并将天齐锂业 (002466.SZ)A股评级从"跑输大市"下调至"沽售"，目标价由36元人民币升至50元人民币，预测2025年全 球锂供应过剩量达7.6万吨，2026年过剩量降至5.4万吨，较2024年的12.1万吨大幅减少。 智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，全球锂市场供需平衡预料将于今年至明年出现改善，能源储存系 统及电动车电池需求胜过预期，但由于供应增长受阻，目前对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。 该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相 信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 ...

11月17日，雅化集团涨10.00%，成交额24.65亿元。两融数据显示，当日雅化集团获融资买入额2.39亿 元，融资偿还2.03亿元，融资净买入3655.55万元。截至11月17日，雅化集团融资融券余额合计7.40亿 元。 融资方面，雅化集团当日融资买入2.39亿元。当前融资余额7.31亿元，占流通市值的2.54%，融资余额 超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 分红方面，雅化集团A股上市后累计派现12.40亿元。近三年，累计派现6.22亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，雅化集团十大流通股东中，景顺长城新能源产业股票A类 （011328）位居第三大流通股东，持股1349.98万股，相比上期增加28.62万股。香港中央结算有限公司 位居第四大流通股东，持股1323.88万股，相比上期减少154.32万股。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居 第七大流通股东，持股1053.86万股，相比上期减少9.54万股。景顺资源垄断混合A（162607）位居第八 大流通股东，持股1005.66万股，相比上期减少25.18万股。富国研究精选灵活配置混合A（000880）位 居第十大流通股东，持股876. ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯赣锋锂业11月17日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年11月10日，公司A股股 东人数为374783户。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have reached a new high, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, with prices hitting 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 30% increase since mid-October [1][3] - The strong performance of lithium carbonate has led to significant gains in related sectors, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit, while others like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw increases of over 7% [2] - The supply side is characterized by domestic production increases and reduced imports, with a notable 10.3% decrease in lithium carbonate imports in September and a 59.12% drop in exports [3] Group 2 - Demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the peak season, with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in domestic power battery installations in October, totaling 84.1 GWh, and a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [3] - The production of new energy vehicles in October reached 1.772 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 9.59%, while sales were 1.715 million units, up 6.12% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that demand for lithium carbonate will exceed 30% growth next year, potentially pushing prices above 150,000 yuan/ton, with a forecasted demand of 155,000 tons for 2025 [5] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that while short-term demand is strong, there are concerns about long-term supply pressures due to high production rates and new capacities coming online, which may limit price increases [4] - Current total inventory has dropped to 120,000 tons, highlighting tight supply conditions, but there are warnings about potential weakening of downstream purchasing intentions at high price levels [4] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations as demand may weaken in the coming months, particularly with the anticipated recovery of mining operations [4]

截至2025年11月17日 14:29，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)下跌0.58%。成分股方面涨跌互现，盛新锂能(002240)领涨10.01%，中矿资源(002738) 上涨10.00%，雅化集团(002497)上涨10.00%；中孚实业(600595)领跌7.88%，中国铝业(601600)下跌4.55%，云铝股份(000807)下跌4.47%。有色 50ETF(159652)下跌0.39%，最新报价1.53元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月14日，有色50ETF近1周累计上涨1.59%。 流动性方面，有色50ETF盘中换手5.7%，成交1.61亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月14日，有色50ETF近1月日均成交1.67亿元。 值得一提的是，有色50ETF(159652)盘中获资金逆市加仓，截至目前，该基金盘中已获净申购6200万份，按盘中成交均价估算，净申购金额已超9400元。 | | 有色50ETF 159652 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 十〇 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 赎回 | | 筆数 | 54 | 4 | | 金额 | 0 | 0 ...

碳酸锂市场正迎来一轮由需求驱动的新涨势。与今年第三季度那波涨势不同的是，以往碳酸锂价格大涨 多受供给端扰动影响，而这一轮则与需求端爆发密切相关。 自10月中旬起，碳酸锂主力合约价格持续拉升，至11月17日已突破9万元/吨大关，当日盘中最大涨幅达 8.5%，一个月内吨价上涨逾两万元。A股方面，今日截至午间收盘，盛新锂能、融捷股份涨停，天齐锂 业、永兴材料、赣锋锂业分别上涨8.62%、7.45%、6.55%。 铜冠金源期货11月17日分析称，从多头视角来看，枧下窝矿短期暂无复产预期，供给端存在增量瓶颈。 而动力终端需求强劲，库存持续加速去化，碳酸锂基本面向好。同时，在政策指引以及产业大额订单烘 托下，储能需求预期被点燃，基本面格局将迎来逆转。 11月16日，在第十届动力电池应用国际峰会开幕式上，李良彬表示，2025年全球碳酸锂需求预计达155 万吨，供给达170万吨。2026年全球碳酸锂需求预计增长30%，供需逐渐平衡；如果明年需求增速超过 30%，甚至达到40%，短期内供应无法平衡，价格可能会突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨。 赣锋锂业除掌握上游资源外，还将产业链向下游延伸，拥有完整的固态电池上下游一体化布局， ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from September, while the market expectation was 5.5% [4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 6.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from January to September [4] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, marking the lowest level since June 2020, and significantly below the market expectation of -0.7% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods in October nominally grew by 2.9%, continuing a decline for five consecutive months, and was below the market expectation of 2.7% [5] Industry Insights - Huawei is set to release a breakthrough technology in the AI field on November 21, which could increase the utilization rate of GPU and NPU resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, significantly enhancing hardware potential [9] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with supply capacity at over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus [10] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in October reached 20,290 units, a year-on-year increase of 144%, indicating strong market demand [12] - The pet health products industry is expected to see a surge in demand due to the aging pet population, with a shift from preventive to essential health care products [14] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index volatility increased by 3.9% last week, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid concerns over AI tech stocks and potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [16] - The domestic market is experiencing a "high-low cut" sentiment, with consumer indices rising while high P/E indices are declining, indicating a shift in investor focus [16] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced minor fluctuations last week, with short-term yields rising slightly due to unstable funding conditions, while the overall economic data released was weak but within market expectations [18]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a strong performance in early trading, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8.35% to HKD 62.3 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 6.49% to HKD 56.75, driven by a significant rise in lithium carbonate futures prices and positive demand forecasts for the coming years [1][1]. Industry Summary - On November 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures surged over 5%, currently priced at CNY 91,740 per ton [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicts a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario with potential for price increases [1][1]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, supply may not keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding CNY 150,000 per ton or even CNY 200,000 per ton in the short term [1][1]. Market Dynamics - According to Wenkang Futures, the current market focus is on the demand side, with record high sales in electric vehicles and energy storage batteries driving bullish sentiment in lithium materials and raw materials [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is nearing its upper limit, with capacity utilization across the industry chain at peak levels for the year, resulting in a continuous supply shortage and the lowest recorded inventory days [1][1]. - Market expectations for accelerated inventory depletion have been fully priced in, and as the peak season progresses, the momentum for downstream raw material stocking may be nearing its end, suggesting limited upward price potential without sustained drivers [1][1].