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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issuances, and macro - news. It also analyzes the profit situation of WESCHI and gives investment suggestions [1][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, GUOTJU priced a 3 - year floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60 (IPT at SOFR + 115). In KR, spreads of DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26 - 30s widened by 1 - 2bps. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, and HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2 - 4bps [1]. - In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28 - 35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31 - 40s tightened 2 - 4bps, and NANYAN/BNKEA 30 - 34s tightened 2 - 3bps [1]. - In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34 - 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54 - 55s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt. In AT1s, NWG 7.3/BNP 7.375/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.8pt [1]. - In HK, AIA/CKHH 30 - 35s tightened 1 - 2bps under buying from PBs. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 3.1pts higher, and LIFUNG 5.25 08/18/25 was up 0.1pt. Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55 and mandated a 3.5 - year USD bond issuance [1]. - HYSAN/FAEACO Perps were up 0.2 - 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 was up 0.7pt. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been working on a HKD3.5bn 5 - year loan refinancing deal. NWDEVL 27 - 31s/Perps were unchanged to 0.4pt lower [1]. - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.5 - 3.6pts lower, and ROADKG Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.2pt. FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.3 - 0.5pt. MONMIN 30 was up 0.7pt, closed 2.6pts higher WTD [1]. New Issuances - TEMASE priced 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 1.85%, 2.05%, and 2.55% (IPT at 2.3%, 2.55%, and 3.05%) respectively [2]. - CHMEDA priced 5 - year and 10 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 2% and 2.3% (IPT at 2.55% and 2.85% area) respectively [4]. - Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group issued a 150 - million 3 - year bond at a 6.5% coupon rate, unrated [12]. Morning Updates - This morning, the new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, while TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.5pt higher from ROs at par. The new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 29 was up 0.5pt [3]. - WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 was up 1.0pt this morning post - positive profit alert. HYUELEs were unchanged this morning as SK Hynix 2Q25 EBITDA rose 47% yoy to KRW12.7tn (cUSD9.1bn) [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+1.14%), and Nasdaq (+0.61%) were higher. Trump said countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% ahead of an 1 Aug '25 deadline. The US may impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.88%/3.94%/4.40%/4.95% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (WESCHI) expects the profit attributable to owners to increase 80 - 100% yoy to RMB696 - 774mn in 1H25, driven by overseas cement revenue, mainland China cement sales, property sales profit, and reversal of impairment losses [8]. - WESCHI plans to use proceeds from non - core asset sales to partly repay its WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 due in Jul '26. The company also plans to sell other assets and offshore projects for bond repayment [9]. - Despite potential recovery in the Chinese cement market, caution remains regarding WESCHI's ability to remit cash from African operations. The full and timely repayment of the bond is uncertain. The report maintains a neutral rating on WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 and prefers BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs in the China HY space [10]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 123 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB119bn. Month - to - date, 1,592 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,699bn, a 16.6% yoy increase [14]. - Adani Ports is in the race to set up a logistics park in north India. San Miguel buys a 3.8% stake in First Pacific - owned Meralco for PHP3.9bn (cUSD68.4mn) [14]. - Fosun will early redeem USD178.857mn FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 at 101 on 22 Aug '25. China Hongqiao seeks a USD300mn - equivalent three - year loan [14]. - JD.com will create a virtual restaurant chain. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been seeking an HKD3.5bn loan refinancing deal, but about half of the lenders have yet to commit [14]. - Li & Fung says no covenant restriction on perp refi, and the final plan depends on EBITDA. Rakuten sells JPY bonds for JPY30bn (cUSD204mn) for 5G projects [14]. - Sands China 2Q25 adjusted property EBITDA climbs 0.9% yoy to USD566mn. Viceroy alleges Vedanta's promoters siphon margins from Hindustan Zinc [14]. Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP | 51.4 | 3.1 | ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 | 22.8 | - 3.6 | | NSANY 5 1/4 07/17/29 | 100.9 | 1.1 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 26.5 | - 1.7 | | NWG 7.3 PERP | 102.3 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 25.8 | - 1.7 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 97.4 | 0.7 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 21.9 | - 0.9 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 52.0 | 0.7 | ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 | 25.9 | - 0.6 | [5]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current state of demand and supply dynamics as of July 2025. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** showed a mild month-over-month (MoM) increase but remained at low levels, indicating weak overall demand [1] - **Infrastructure construction** has weakened significantly, with a noticeable deceleration in new project starts due to ongoing funding constraints and stringent payment requirements [1] - **Metal demand** has softened, with signs of inventory buildup in the supply chain, influenced by seasonal softness and a sequential correction in domestic solar demand [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **7-11% lower year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **1-10% lower** for copper, flat steel, and aluminum [1] Supply Dynamics - The determination on supply adjustments remains mixed, with: - **Steel production cuts** beginning but with heterogeneous targets discussed [1] - Local government commitments on capacity elimination in cement being absent [1] - Marginal coal miners showing reluctance to cut production amid poor pricing [1] - Surprises in the oversupplied lithium market due to mining license approval inspections [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have weakened [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **31% of respondents** in downstream sectors and **30%** in basic materials reported a MoM pickup in July, while **25%** and **24%** indicated a lower MoM trend, respectively [2] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **importance of funding** in infrastructure projects, which is currently constrained, affecting new project initiations [1] - The **mixed signals** in supply adjustments suggest a complex market environment where producers are navigating between demand pressures and pricing strategies [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing a challenging environment characterized by weakening demand, mixed supply responses, and significant pressures on pricing and margins across various materials. The insights from producer feedback and high-frequency data provide a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics, indicating potential risks and opportunities for investors in this sector.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Key Project**: Construction of a new hydro station in Tibet with a total investment of Rmb1.2 trillion and an installed capacity of 60-70GW, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Capacity and Power Generation**: The new hydro station is expected to generate over 300TWh annually, with a construction timeline of 18-20 years, including 13 years for the main body and 5 years for auxiliary facilities [2][8] - **Material Demand**: The project will require 20-30 million tons of cement in total, with an annual demand of 1-1.5 million tons. Local companies such as Huaxin, CNBM, and Conch are positioned to benefit due to their proximity to the project [3][8] - **Cement Pricing**: Current cement prices in Tibet are Rmb500 per ton, significantly higher than the national average of Rmb330 per ton, indicating a favorable pricing environment for local producers [3] - **Impact on Metals**: The hydro station will increase demand for copper and aluminum due to the power equipment and cables required for power transfer. This could also stimulate local investments in data centers and other power-intensive projects [4][8] - **Thermal Power Impact**: Once operational, the hydro station may negatively affect demand for thermal power and thermal coal [8] Additional Important Points - **Beneficiaries**: Cement and steel sectors are direct beneficiaries during the construction phase, with local factories expected to receive orders [3][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: The project aligns with the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may lead to stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand [10][21] - **Risks**: Potential risks include weaker-than-expected property demand, government intervention in cement pricing, and production suspensions due to environmental regulations [13][18][22] Company-Specific Insights - **Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd**: Price target derived from A-share price target, with a higher A/H premium of 35% since 2023 [9] - **China National Building Material Company**: Price target based on a discounted cash flow model with a cost of equity of 13.5% [15] - **Huaxin Cement Co**: Price target derived using a discounted cash flow model, with a focus on demand in Hubei and Yunnan [22] Conclusion The construction of the hydro station in Tibet represents a significant investment opportunity for the materials sector, particularly for cement and metal producers. The project is expected to drive demand and pricing in these sectors while also posing certain risks related to market dynamics and government policies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on **China's Supply-Side Reform 2.0 (SSR2.0)**, particularly in the **manufacturing sector** including steel, solar, and cement industries [1][10][18] - The context includes ongoing **PPI deflation** and the need to address **overcapacity** and **intense competition** in various sectors [2][25][27] Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilience in Manufacturing**: Despite weaknesses in the property market, manufacturing **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** remains strong, indicating potential for recovery [1] - **PPI Challenges**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is struggling in negative territory, with prolonged deflation impacting profitability across industries [1][38] - **SSR2.0 Expectations**: Authorities are expected to implement SSR2.0 to combat overcapacity and price wars, with less aggressive capacity cuts compared to SSR1.0 [2][3][15] - **Sector-Specific Measures**: The reforms will likely include capacity control, production cuts, and regulatory tightening, particularly in sectors like coal, aluminum, and steel [4][63][64] Key Differences Between SSR2.0 and SSR1.0 - **Demand Stimulus**: SSR1.0 had strong stimulus measures, while SSR2.0 is expected to have a milder approach [3][15] - **Capacity Concentration**: SSR1.0 focused on upstream sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whereas SSR2.0 will address mid- and downstream sectors [3][15] - **Implementation Challenges**: Policymakers may face difficulties in enforcing reforms due to the complexity of the current industrial landscape [3][65] Potential Outcomes and Stock Picks - **Base Case Scenario**: Mild demand stimulus with modest improvements in prices and margins for steel, cement, and solar sectors. Preferred stocks include **Baosteel, Tongwei, and Conch Cement** [5][18] - **Bull Case Scenario**: Stronger demand stimulus could benefit additional sectors like lithium and batteries, with preferred stocks being **Angang, CNBM, CATL, and Tongwei** [5][18] - **Bear Case Scenario**: Less effective supply control could lead to underwhelming demand, favoring existing winners from previous cycles like **Hongqiao and Chalco** [5][18] Important but Overlooked Aspects - **Historical Context**: Previous successful reforms in coal and aluminum contrast with the underperformance of the steel sector, highlighting the need for targeted interventions [12][15] - **Trade Tensions**: Rising trade disputes, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors, could complicate the reform landscape [38][50] - **Labor Market Impact**: The expected labor market impact from SSR2.0 is anticipated to be minimal compared to previous reforms, with less aggressive capacity cuts [66][70] Conclusion - SSR2.0 is positioned as a critical response to ongoing economic challenges in China, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving profitability across key sectors. The effectiveness of these reforms will depend on the implementation of supportive demand-side measures and the ability to manage overcapacity effectively [1][27][66]

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Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a loss of approximately 341.37 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net loss after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 900 million and 1.2 billion yuan, compared to a loss of about 368.64 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.1125 to 0.1406 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.3940 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The main reason for the performance change is attributed to the increase in cement sales prices and the decrease in costs of cement and ready-mixed concrete, leading to improved operational efficiency compared to the previous year [1] - The company has focused on precise management, cost reduction, and optimizing both pricing and costs, resulting in a significant reduction in net loss attributable to shareholders compared to the previous year [1] - National statistics indicate that from January to May 2025, the cumulative cement production in the country was 659 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, with the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to January to April, and a 5.8 percentage point decrease compared to the same period last year [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for A-shares over offshore markets due to their lagging performance year-to-date and more reasonable valuations compared to offshore markets [12]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment for A-shares has improved, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising to 78% and the simple MSASI to 65% [2][6]. - The Chinese government has intensified its anti-involution message to address overcapacity issues in sectors like solar, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, near-term volatility is expected to rise, and the report cautions against a beta-focused strategy in the offshore market [12]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment improved with the weighted MSASI increasing by 7 percentage points to 78% and the simple MSASI rising by 8 percentage points to 65% compared to the previous cutoff date [2]. - Average daily turnover for ChiNext and A-shares decreased by 11% and 7% respectively, while equity futures and Northbound turnover increased by 7% and 9% [2]. Market Inflows - Southbound markets experienced net inflows of US$2.7 billion from July 2 to July 9, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching US$95.8 billion and US$0.5 billion respectively [3]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a deflation of -0.4% month-over-month in June, driven by weak construction activities and tariff impacts, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.1% year-over-year from -0.1% in May [5]. Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the need for a tailored approach to the anti-involution initiative, as different sectors have varying competitive landscapes, ESG considerations, and market sizes [4]. - The implementation of policies to rebalance and reflation the economy remains challenging due to institutional inertia [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel and cement sectors in China, suggesting potential benefits from a more supportive policy environment on supply discipline [1][12][13]. Core Insights - There is a renewed policy focus on addressing supply discipline in China, with a call for a unified national market and a crackdown on excessive competition leading to lower prices [1]. - The report highlights that excess capacity in various industries ranges from 30% to 50%, with specific figures for steel and cement being around 30% to 50% [2][11]. - The potential for executing production cuts in the steel sector is noted, with a target of 50 million tons, which could lead to a significant reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 [13][18]. - The cement sector is also undergoing capacity categorization and is targeting a reduction of unauthorized and energy-intensive capacities, which could improve capacity utilization from 50% to 70% [13][14]. Summary by Sections Supply Side Expectations - The report discusses ongoing policy efforts to discourage overly fierce competition and control output in sectors like hog farming and steel, aiming to reverse price deflation trends [12]. - The clarity of future policy guidance remains uncertain, but discussions suggest a more supportive context for executing supply plans in the steel and cement sectors [13]. Excess Capacity Analysis - Excess capacity is a persistent challenge, with estimates indicating that unauthorized excess clinker capacity in the cement industry exceeds 400 million tons, representing nearly 18% of the industry [14][15]. - The report estimates that additional requirements could lead to a targeted exit of 277 to 377 million tons of clinker capacity, further reducing excess capacity [13]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that the execution of steel production cuts could create a meaningful deficit in the market, similar to conditions observed in the second half of 2021, which previously led to margin expansion and reduced exports [18][19]. - The implied spread from rebar futures suggests a potential margin expansion of nearly RMB 200 per ton in the steel sector, indicating a strong possibility of production cuts [16].

ab 3 July 2025 Global Research First Read We think investors may have overly priced in potential price upside from anti-involution initiates, while overlooking the structural demand weakness and obstacles to industry consolidation. We maintain our cautious view on the China cement sector. Equities China Building Materials China Cement Sector Expert call takeaway: "lie flat" no good for long- term consolidation No new policy We hosted a call with Digital Cement analyst, Ms. Xiaoliang Wang, to dive into the t ...