Core Insights - The article discusses the best American stocks for long-term investment, emphasizing the shift in investor strategies towards diversification and away from traditional portfolios [1][2] Long-term Investment Trends - A significant portion of investors, approximately 60%, believe that long-term discipline is essential in today's market, with 70% expressing greater patience for investment growth compared to their initial investing experiences [2] - The trend towards dividend investing aligns with long-term strategies, as 80.9% of S&P 500 companies pay dividends, with an average yield of 1.93% among Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents [3] Methodology for Stock Selection - The article outlines a methodology for selecting US companies that provide regular dividends, focusing on those with over 9% revenue growth over five years and positive analyst sentiment, resulting in a list of 14 hedge fund-favored companies [6][7] Company Highlights - **Atmos Energy Corporation (NYSE:ATO)**: - Holds 32 hedge fund positions and has a 5-year revenue growth of 9.92% - Recently increased its quarterly dividend by 15%, marking 41 consecutive years of dividend growth, with capital expenditures of $3.6 billion in FY25, primarily for safety and reliability [8][10][11] - **CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)**: - Holds 41 hedge fund positions and boasts a 5-year revenue growth of 15.96% - Focused on decarbonizing production with low-carbon ammonia, reporting a trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $2.63 billion and free cash flow of $1.7 billion [12][13][14] - **Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FANG)**: - Holds 42 hedge fund positions with a remarkable 5-year revenue growth of 36.06% - Benefits from low-cost production in the Permian Basin, generating 15% higher free cash flow per share despite a 14% decline in oil prices, and is nearing its $1.5 billion net debt target [15][17][18]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has signed an executive order to establish food supply chain security task forces to investigate potential risks from price fixing and anti-competitive behavior [1][2] - The task forces will be formed by the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to assess whether foreign-controlled companies are increasing living costs for Americans and posing national security threats [2][5] - The task forces will investigate food-related industries for anti-competitive practices and the impact of foreign control on food prices in the U.S. [6][8] Group 2 - President Trump emphasized the importance of an affordable and secure food supply for national and economic security, highlighting threats from anti-competitive behavior by foreign corporations [8] - Certain companies in the American food supply chain have previously settled civil suits for price fixing, indicating vulnerabilities in sectors such as meat processing, seed, fertilizer, and equipment [8] - The task forces are required to report their findings and potential congressional actions to key congressional leaders within 180 days and again within 365 days of the order [10]

Core Insights - The fertilizer industry is characterized by significant seasonal and quarterly fluctuations, making it an intriguing sector for investment analysis [1]. Company Overview - Nutrien Ltd (NTR) is highlighted as a company of interest within the fertilizer industry, indicating its potential for investment opportunities [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, and emphasizes a rigorous research approach to investment decisions [1]. - The analyst specializes in technology sectors, particularly SaaS and cloud businesses, which are noted for their growth potential and active market dynamics [1].

Core Insights - The fertilizer industry is characterized by significant seasonal and quarterly fluctuations, making it an intriguing sector for investment analysis [1]. Company Overview - Nutrien Ltd (NTR) is highlighted as a company of interest within the fertilizer industry, indicating its potential for investment opportunities [1]. Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in financial markets, primarily in hedge funds, with a focus on rigorous research standards [1]. - Preferred sectors for analysis include technology, particularly SaaS and cloud businesses, which are noted for their growth potential and active news flow [1].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is highlighted as a potentially undervalued stock in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, with strong fundamentals and a competitive position in the market [1][12]. Business Overview - CF Industries operates nitrogen manufacturing complexes in the U.S. and the U.K., benefiting from scale, low-cost natural gas, and export access [2]. - The company generates substantial free cash flow across cycles, despite fluctuations in fertilizer demand driven by crop prices and natural gas costs [2]. Financial Metrics - CF's intrinsic value to price (IV/P) ratio is 1.10, indicating that its intrinsic value is approximately 10% higher than its current market price, suggesting undervaluation [5]. - Key financial metrics include a market cap of approximately US$ 12.75 billion, an enterprise value estimated between US$ 18 billion and US$ 19 billion, and a free cash flow of about US$ 1.71 billion [6]. Revenue & Profitability - For the trailing twelve months (TTM), CF reported revenue of US$ 6.73 billion, operating income of US$ 2.09 billion, and a net income of US$ 1.38 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 20% [7]. - The company maintains double-digit margins and strong earnings despite a downturn from the 2022 fertilizer boom [7]. Balance Sheet Strength - CF's balance sheet shows cash and equivalents of approximately US$ 1.84 billion, total debt of about US$ 3.40 billion, and shareholders' equity of around US$ 4.85 billion, indicating manageable leverage and ample liquidity [8]. - The cash generation supports debt servicing, dividends, and buybacks, essential for its capital-intensive operations [8]. Capital Returns - CF has a dividend yield of approximately 2.5% and has repurchased about US$ 1.4 billion in shares over the TTM, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [10]. - The aggressive buyback strategy is a key driver of intrinsic value growth [10]. Investment Thesis - CF is positioned as a durable, cash-generating business with a competitive cost structure and strong free cash flow, trading at a discount to its intrinsic value [12]. - The company is seen as undervalued due to market assumptions of declining future profitability, despite its ability to compound capital at attractive rates [11][12]. Industry Context - Global nitrogen demand is structurally linked to population growth and food needs, providing a steady market for CF's products [15]. - North American gas cost advantages create a competitive moat for CF against higher-cost international producers [15].

Market Overview - The current market environment is characterized by changing global supply, demand, and investor sentiment, with precious metals leading gains alongside industrial metals, as indicated by a 10% increase in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) as of November 19, 2025 [2] - Four out of six BCOM sectors reported gains in Q3, while petroleum rose by 4%, with grains and energy sectors being exceptions [2] - China's major commodity imports eased in October, with iron ore showing resilience despite declines in crude oil, natural gas, and coal [3] - The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook predicts a 7% decline in global commodity prices in 2026 due to subdued economic activity, trade tensions, and excess oil supplies, while precious metals are expected to grow by 5% [4] LNG Supply Growth - Global LNG supply is projected to grow by 10.2% in 2026, driven by U.S. expansions, with capacity expected to rise to 130 million tons in 2026 from 90 million tons in 2024 [5] Investment Strategy - The list of the 12 best commodity stocks is curated based on hedge fund interest, utilizing data from Insider Monkey's hedge fund database, which tracks 983 stocks as of Q2 2025 [8] - Research indicates that imitating top stock picks of leading hedge funds can lead to market outperformance [9] Company Highlights Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE:APD) - Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is among the top commodity stocks, with 53 hedge fund holders [11] - The company reported Q4 FY25 EPS of $3.39, slightly above the forecast of $3.38, with a full-year EPS of $12.03, down 3% year-over-year [13] - Management highlighted a focus on cost-reset strategies, including a 16% workforce reduction, and stable operating margins at 23.7% [13] - The NEOM green hydrogen project is nearly 90% complete, with expectations for ammonia output in 2027 [14] EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) - EOG Resources, Inc. also has 53 hedge fund holders and maintained a price target of $145 with a "Buy" rating [16] - The company reported Q3 net income of $1.5 billion and free cash flow of $1.4 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.71 [17] - EOG returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, with regular dividend payments increasing by 8% year-over-year [18] - The company raised its free cash flow guidance to $4.5 billion, ending the quarter with $3.5 billion in cash [19] The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) - The Mosaic Company has 54 hedge fund holders and received a "Buy" rating from Goldman Sachs, with a lowered price target from $37 to $33 [21][22] - The company reported Q3 net income of $411 million, up from $122 million year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $806 million [23] - Mosaic aims to achieve $250 million in cost savings by 2026, having already recorded $150 million in reductions [25]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a favorable pricing environment for lithium, with realized average prices increasing compared to the previous period [4][5] - The total capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2025-2027 is estimated at $2.7 billion, reflecting a focus on increasing production capacity and maintaining low costs [7][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lithium sales volumes reached the highest in SQM's history, supported by low costs and strong efficiencies at Atacama operations [5] - Iodine prices remained high, averaging close to $73 per kilogram, with a balanced supply-demand environment [6][7] - The specialty plant nutrition business showed sustainable growth in both volumes and revenues compared to the previous year [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global lithium demand is expected to exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2025, representing over 25% growth, driven by strong EV sales and energy storage systems [11][51] - China is projected to maintain a significant lead in EV markets with a 30% year-on-year growth, accounting for over 60% of global EV sales [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-quality production, increasing volumes, and advancing cost reduction initiatives [4][5] - The construction of a seawater pipeline is over 80% complete, which will enhance iodine production capacity [6] - The company is expanding its iodine production capacity through a new operation in MarÃa Elena, adding 1,500 tons of iodine capacity [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the lithium market despite its volatility, expecting the positive pricing trend to continue [4] - The company anticipates robust commercial activity in the fourth quarter, with strong demand fundamentals for lithium [5] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and commitment to investment-grade ratings [29] Other Important Information - The joint venture with Codelco received approval from China's Antitrust Authority, with expectations to advance the partnership by the end of the year [8] - The company is evaluating the expansion of production capacity in China, with plans to increase lithium sulfate production [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on lithium demand, particularly in China - Management noted improved demand expectations for 2025, driven by strong EV sales and energy storage systems, with China leading in EV markets [11] Question: Production expectations for lithium in Chile and Australia - The company expects to produce close to 230,000 tons of lithium from Atacama, with an increase in spodumene concentrate sales projected [15][16] Question: Impact of Kwinana Hydroxide Conversion Plant on pricing - Management indicated that the international price for lithium is expected to rise closer to the Chilean price as the Kwinana plant ramps up production [18][19] Question: Update on the Codelco joint venture - The agreement with Codelco is expected to be finalized soon, with a dividend to be paid based on the tonnage belonging to Codelco [24][61] Question: Expectations for iodine market conditions - Management expects tight supply and demand conditions for iodine to persist, with prices likely to remain above $70 per kilogram [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a favorable pricing environment for lithium, with realized average prices increasing compared to the previous period [4] - The total capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2025-2027 is estimated at $2.7 billion, reflecting a focus on increasing production capacity and maintaining low costs [7][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lithium sales volumes reached the highest in SQM's history, supported by low costs and strong efficiencies at Atacama operations [5] - Iodine prices remained high, averaging close to $73 per kilogram, with revenues increasing by 5% year-on-year [6][7] - The specialty plant nutrition business showed sustainable growth in both volumes and revenues [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global lithium demand is expected to exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2025, representing over 25% growth, driven by strong EV sales and energy storage systems [11][51] - China is projected to maintain a significant lead in EV markets with a 30% year-on-year growth [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-quality production, increasing volumes, and advancing cost reduction initiatives [5] - The construction of a seawater pipeline is over 80% complete, which will enhance iodine supply capabilities [6] - The company is expanding its iodine production capacity through a new operation in MarÃa Elena, adding 1,500 tons of iodine capacity [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the lithium market despite its volatility, expecting robust commercial activity in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The company anticipates strong demand fundamentals for electric vehicles and energy storage systems [5] Other Important Information - The joint venture with Codelco received approval from China's Antitrust Authority, with expectations to advance the partnership by year-end [8] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and is committed to investment-grade ratings, indicating no immediate need for capital raises [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on lithium demand, particularly in China - Management noted improved demand expectations driven by stronger-than-expected EV sales, particularly in Europe and China [11] Question: Production expectations for lithium from Atacama and Mount Holland - Production in Chile is expected to be around 230,000 tons, with Mount Holland projected to produce between 23,000-24,000 tons [15][16] Question: Price differences between Chilean and international lithium - Management explained that price differences are due to conversion costs and refining expenses, which will be clarified in future reports [18][19] Question: Update on production capacity in China - The company expects to produce around 100,000 metric tons of lithium sulfate in China, with plans to expand capacity [25] Question: CapEx reduction implications - The CapEx reduction will not impact production capacity or projects, with a focus on maintaining ongoing initiatives [42][44] Question: Expectations for iodine market conditions - Demand for iodine is expected to grow by around 3% next year, with supply conditions remaining tight [56]

Core Insights - Verde AgriTech Ltd. has signed an exclusive agreement with UNDO Carbon Ltd. to explore a commercial partnership focused on creating and selling carbon removal credits from Enhanced Rock Weathering activities in Brazil, which could potentially remove hundreds of thousands of tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere [1][2] Partnership Overview - The collaboration aims to leverage Verde's mineral resources and operational capacity in Brazil alongside UNDO's expertise in Enhanced Rock Weathering measurement and technology, creating a scalable model for carbon removal [2][3] - This agreement marks Verde's entry into the carbon credit market, establishing a framework to monetize its Enhanced Rock Weathering activities [2][6] UNDO Carbon's Achievements - UNDO has spread over 313,800 tonnes of silicate rock across 398 farms, enriching 54,400 acres of agricultural land and set to permanently remove approximately 69,000 tonnes of CO₂ [4] - The company was recognized as one of the winners of the $100 million XPRIZE Carbon Removal competition, highlighting its innovative approach to carbon dioxide removal [3] Benefits of the Partnership - For Verde, the partnership provides access to UNDO's technology for measurement, reporting, and verification of carbon removal, as well as established relationships with carbon removal buyers [5][6] - For UNDO, the agreement secures a reliable source of high-quality Enhanced Rock Weathering feedstock from Verde's operations in Brazil [2][5] Warrant Grant Details - Verde will grant UNDO up to 1.7 million common share purchase warrants, with specific conditions regarding exercise price and vesting based on cash consideration received under Qualified Offtakes [7][9][10] - The warrants are structured to align equity participation with verified carbon credit revenue milestones, ensuring value alignment with Verde shareholders [18] Enhanced Rock Weathering Process - Enhanced Rock Weathering involves spreading crushed silicate rock on agricultural land to accelerate natural weathering processes, which can potentially remove up to 4 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year if scaled effectively [19]

Market Overview - December is historically a strong month for stock purchases due to holiday shopping and corporate budget utilization, with markets ending December higher 75% of the time since the 1950s [1] - The S&P 500 has risen 15% this year, driven by strong corporate earnings, although there are concerns about a potential downturn in 2026 [2] Presidential Cycle Impact - Historical data shows that Year 2 of a presidential term often results in lower stock returns, averaging only 3.3% compared to 9.7% in other years, with significant declines observed in the second year of both Trump and Biden administrations [4][5] Economic Conditions - U.S. economic growth is increasingly concentrated in a few AI firms, with 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 attributed to AI-related investments, negatively impacting other sectors like real estate and healthcare [6] - Consumer confidence is at record lows, with a projected 11% decline in average holiday gift spending for 2025, particularly among Gen Z [7] Corporate Layoffs - Major corporations are initiating significant layoffs, reminiscent of 2022, with Amazon cutting 14,000 jobs and Verizon reducing its workforce by 15%, indicating a shift in market conditions [8] Investment Opportunities - Despite market volatility, certain stocks are attracting "smart money" buyers, with notable insider purchases indicating potential value [9] - Bloomin' Brands Inc. (BLMN) has seen significant insider buying, with shares trading below 6X forward earnings, suggesting a potential 100% rise in 2026 as markets favor low-priced value stocks [17][18][21] - Mosaic Co. (MOS) is positioned as a compelling value play in the fertilizer sector, with potash prices rising and a potential 40% upside if prices remain stable [22][25] Market Sentiment - Recent selloffs in major U.S. stock indexes highlight the fragility of high valuations, leading to panic selling among institutional investors while retail traders remain hopeful for recovery [27]