Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhuyou Group, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million to 650 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 189 million to 279 million yuan, or 50.97% to 75.23% [1] Financial Projections - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 570 million and 660 million yuan, which indicates an increase of 255 million to 345 million yuan compared to the same period last year, translating to a year-on-year growth of 80.97% to 109.55% [1]

Group 1 - The introduction of innovative technologies in the zinc smelting industry is significantly reducing energy consumption by approximately 30% and pollutant emissions by over 40%, enhancing metal recovery rates and achieving both environmental and economic benefits [1] - The production of ultra-high purity metals such as 6N and 7N grade tellurium, cadmium, zinc, and indium is entering mass production, supporting the transition of companies from raw material leaders to strong players in new materials [1] - Traditional industries in Jiyuan are actively innovating and upgrading to improve competitiveness in response to increasing domestic and international competition and environmental constraints [1] Group 2 - Jiyuan Steel has developed a world-first non-exchange electrode (10.4-meter self-consumption electrode) process to produce ultra-pure electric slag steel ingots, addressing the challenges of the steel industry's internal competition [2] - Jinma Energy is establishing a complete hydrogen energy industrial chain, supplying 700 to 800 million cubic meters of hydrogen annually to local petrochemical projects [2] - Wanyuan Group is leveraging selenium resources from industrial by-products to produce selenium products, achieving an annual output value of 15 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Jiyuan is implementing a "1+5+N" strategic layout to enhance high-quality development, focusing on five key areas including building a strong industrial city [3] - The city is deepening technological reforms and establishing a comprehensive innovation system to boost productivity through technological advancements [3] - Jiyuan is actively promoting traditional industry upgrades and implementing policies to support enterprise development through a multi-faceted service system [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal industry cluster in Jiyuan has an annual output value of nearly 200 billion yuan, with steel processing and modern chemical industries also approaching the 100 billion yuan mark [4] - All enterprises in the region have achieved ultra-low emissions, and the output value of the circular economy accounts for over 30% of the total industrial output value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced an adjustment to its profit distribution plan for the year 2024, specifically modifying the cash dividend per share due to changes in the number of shares participating in the distribution [1][2]. Summary of Key Points Profit Distribution Plan - The company will distribute a total cash dividend of 245,307,582.00 yuan (including tax), which represents a dividend of 2.25 yuan per share (including tax) [1]. - The distribution will not include stock dividends, and if there are changes in the total share capital before the record date, the total distribution amount will remain unchanged while the per-share distribution will be adjusted accordingly [1]. Adjustment Details - As of April 1, 2025, the number of shares converted from "Yuguang Convertible Bonds" into company stock was 2,430 shares, leading to a change in the actual number of shares participating in the profit distribution [2]. - The adjusted cash dividend per share is set at 0.22500 yuan (including tax), calculated based on the unchanged total distribution amount [2]. - The calculation for the adjusted per-share distribution is based on the total cash dividend divided by the total number of shares, resulting in a per-share distribution of approximately 0.22500 yuan [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]

Group 1 - 株冶集团 (600961) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 6.85% and a transaction amount of 569 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 8.78% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 10.75%, with institutional investors net selling 5.82 million yuan and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net selling 619,400 yuan [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction amount of 201 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 12.08 million yuan [2] Group 2 - As of June 26, the margin trading balance for the stock was 218 million yuan, with a financing balance of 218 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 238,800 yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance increased by 14.99 million yuan, representing a growth of 7.39%, while the securities lending balance decreased by 28,140 yuan, a decline of 54.09% [3] - The company's Q1 report indicated a revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.50%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.07% [3]

铅周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 利好边际增加 关注整数突破 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，美联储不急 于降息，预计今年降息 2 次，下调明年降息次数为 1 次，美元坚挺，同时美国下场，以伊冲突升级提升避 险需求，风险资产承压。 要点 基本面看，5 月铅精矿及银精矿进口量基本符合预期， 原料维持偏紧，加工费微降。赤峰山金银铅、郴州 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that Shanghai lead will be in wide - range consolidation, and the rebound space of Shanghai zinc is limited. For lead, although the downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and uncertain production start make the lead price have strong support below, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. For zinc, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc price is limited, and the strategy still maintains a short - allocation view [1] Group 3: Lead Market Summary Price and Trading - On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.45% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 0.68% compared with the previous day. The open interest of the active futures contract decreased by 15.35%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 22.69% [1] Supply - The production of primary lead has been stable with a slight increase, and the overall fluctuation is not large. In the secondary lead sector, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has risen continuously, the supply of recyclers is limited, and the stores are reluctant to sell due to the expectation of price increases. Secondary lead smelters are forced to raise prices, and some smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. The production start is at a relatively low level, and some enterprises have temporarily withheld products from the market due to losses [1] Demand - The current market is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 287,425 tons, and Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 1.41% to 43,761 tons [1] Group 4: Zinc Market Summary Price and Trading - On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.95% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Shanghai zinc's main contract decreased by 0.88%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.45%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 2.68% [1] Supply - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 3,600 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 45 dollars/dry ton. The shortage of zinc concentrate has been alleviated, and the production of smelters is expected to increase [1] Demand - The terminal is in the off - season. After the decline of zinc price this week, the downstream production start and procurement have improved to some extent. The production start of the galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy sectors has rebounded, while the production start of zinc oxide has slightly declined due to the weakening of some orders [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 127,475 tons, and Shanghai zinc warrant inventory decreased by 11.29% to 8,595 tons. As of June 19, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared with June 12 and an increase of 1,500 tons compared with June 16 [1] Group 5: Industry News - Shanghai is considering optimizing the "trade - in" subsidy policy for electric bicycles, simplifying procedures, exploring license - free replacement and remote authentication, and may extend the subsidy policy [1] - A large secondary lead smelter in North China has postponed its resumption of production due to poor raw material arrival, initially planning to resume production at the end of July [1] - As of June 19, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 6,000 tons, remaining flat compared with last week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start-up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, recent macro sentiment has improved, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline. However, considering supply-side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices may be limited, and a short position strategy is still recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the Shanghai lead basis was -170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,992.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.03%; the Shanghai-London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.30% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.79%, a week-on-week increase of 0.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 32.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 72.19%, a week-on-week increase of 11.8 percentage points. As of June 13, the finished product inventory of secondary lead smelters was 25,000 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons from the previous week. The silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates has not changed [1] - **Market Analysis**: The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues. The demand side is gradually shifting from the off-season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 zinc ingots was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 1.22%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 355 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3-month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,626.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.66%; the Shanghai-London zinc price ratio was 8.31, down 0.56% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.06%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy enterprises was 59.84%, a week-on-week increase of 6.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.92%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58 percentage points. Last week, there were overseas zinc mine tenders with a tender volume of about 10,000 tons each [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply-side pressure is increasing, while the demand side is in the off-season, with mixed performance in different sectors [1]

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | | 铅锌日评20250613：沪铅下方支撑较强；沪锌反弹空间有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/13 | | 指标 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,700.00 | | | 0.45% | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,890.00 | | | 0.27% | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -190.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -25.00 | | | 30.00 - | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -27.67 | | | 0.98 | | | | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -66.30 | | | -0.20 | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 | | | 15.00 | | | | | 铅 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 ...