Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 July 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Basic Materials Thoughts on MIIT preview and mega dam impact on basic materials Table 1: Comparison of Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Dam vs Three Gorges Dam | Project ...

Group 1 - Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) will report second quarter 2025 earnings on August 7, 2025, after market close [1] - A follow-up conference call will be held on August 7, 2025, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time [1] - The earnings call will be webcast live on the company's website, with a replay available approximately two hours after the live call [2] Group 2 - Registration for the webcast should begin at least 10 minutes before the call [2] - Investor contact for inquiries is Ryan Crawford, reachable at investorrelations@centuryaluminum.com or (312) 696-3132 [2] - Media contact is Tawn Earnest, available at (614) 698-6351 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Century Aluminum (CENX) stock is considered hazardous and a poor investment choice at its current price of approximately $22 due to several identified issues despite its low valuation [2][3]. Valuation Comparison - CENX stock appears inexpensive when compared to the broader market based on price per dollar of sales or profit [4]. Revenue Growth - Century Aluminum's revenues have shown significant growth, with a 11.4% increase from $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion in the past 12 months, compared to a 5.5% growth for the S&P 500 [6]. - The company experienced an average annual decline of 1.4% in its top line over the last three years, while the S&P 500 saw a 5.5% increase [6]. - Quarterly revenues rose by 29.5% to $634 million in the most recent quarter from $490 million a year prior, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.8% improvement [6]. Profitability Metrics - Century Aluminum's operating income over the last four quarters was $166 million, reflecting a poor operating margin of 7.0% [7]. - The operating cash flow (OCF) during this timeframe was $63 million, indicating a very poor OCF margin of 2.6% compared to 14.9% for the S&P 500 [7]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for Century Aluminum is 0.9, while the S&P 500's is 3.1; the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.3 versus the benchmark's 26.9 [7]. Financial Stability - Century Aluminum's debt stood at $483 million at the end of the most recent quarter, with a market capitalization of $2.1 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 23.3% compared to 19.4% for the S&P 500 [9]. - Cash (including cash equivalents) constitutes $45 million of the $2.0 billion in total assets, leading to a poor cash-to-assets ratio of 2.3% [9]. Downturn Resilience - CENX stock has historically performed worse than the S&P 500 during several downturns, including an 82.1% drop during the inflation shock of 2022 compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [10]. - During the COVID pandemic in 2020, CENX stock fell 62.1%, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% [10]. - In the global financial crisis of 2008, CENX stock dropped 98.7%, significantly worse than the S&P 500's 56.8% decline [11]. Overall Assessment - Century Aluminum's performance across key parameters is summarized as follows: Growth is very strong, profitability is very weak, financial stability is weak, and downturn resilience is very weak, leading to an overall weak assessment of the stock [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Kaiser Aluminum reported second quarter conversion revenue of $374 million, an increase of approximately $5 million or 1% compared to the prior year period [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $68 million, down approximately $6 million from the prior year period [18] - Reported net income for the second quarter was $23 million or $1.41 net income per diluted share, compared to net income of $19 million or $1.15 net income per diluted share in the prior year quarter [17] - Free cash flow for full year 2025 is now projected to be between $50 million and $70 million, revised down from an initial expectation of $100 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and high strength conversion revenue totaled $127 million, down $6 million or approximately 5%, primarily due to a 4% decline in shipments [12] - Packaging conversion revenue totaled $130 million, up $11 million or approximately 9% year over year, despite a 3% decline in shipments [13] - General engineering conversion revenue for the second quarter was $86 million, up $3 million or 3% year over year on a 5% increase in shipments [13] - Automotive conversion revenue of $32 million declined 4% year over year on a 15% decrease in shipments [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for aerospace and high strength applications, including business jet, defense, and space, remained strong despite a decline in commercial aircraft OEM production patterns [12][13] - Broader market factors, including reshoring opportunities, continue to create a favorable operating environment in the general engineering end market [13] - North American demand for packaging far exceeds available supply, expected to continue beyond 2025 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kaiser Aluminum is focused on long-term goals to achieve mid to high 20% EBITDA margins, with expectations for continued progress as demand cycles advance [6] - Investments in Trentwood and Warrick rolling mills are seen as foundational for margin expansion, with completion of the Trentwood Phase seven investment expected in the fourth quarter [9] - The company is committed to quality and maintaining its position as North America's leading coated supplier for aluminum packaging solutions [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that customer sentiment was impacted by tariff-related uncertainty, particularly in the automotive segment, but conditions improved late in the second quarter [7] - The broader policy and geopolitical landscape remains fluid, introducing volatility in ordering patterns [8] - The outlook for total conversion revenue for 2025 remains unchanged at a 5% to 10% year-over-year improvement, with a raised full-year EBITDA outlook of 10% to 15% growth [29] Other Important Information - The company finalized a key multiyear packaging customer contract for coated products, reflecting customer confidence and market strength [11] - Total cash as of June 30, 2025, was approximately $13 million, with a strong liquidity position of approximately $538 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the delay in the commissioning of the packaging line? - The delay is attributed to typical startup issues with complex equipment, with multiple coatings being qualified simultaneously [33] Question: When do you foresee the destocking in aerospace inventory coming to an end? - The destocking is expected to dissipate by the end of the year, with a healthier supply chain anticipated in 2026 [40] Question: How should we think about the cadence of EBITDA in the back half of the year? - The second half is expected to align with previous predictions, with a slight decline in aerospace but an increase in packaging offsetting it [42] Question: How exposed is the company to specific defense programs? - The company is well-positioned across various platforms, maintaining a consistent supply to multiple defense programs [56]

Financial Performance Highlights - Second Quarter 2025 EBITDA was $68 million, with an EBITDA margin of 18.1%[18] - First Half 2025 EBITDA margin improved by 180 basis points year-over-year compared to First Half 2024[30] - Kaiser Aluminum is raising its full year 2025 EBITDA expectations, anticipating a 10% - 15% year-over-year increase[16, 18] End Market Analysis - Aero/HS shipments decreased by 4% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[22] - Aero/HS conversion revenue decreased by 5% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[24] - Packaging shipments increased by 3% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[22] - Packaging conversion revenue increased by 9% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[24] - General Engineering shipments increased by 5% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[22] - General Engineering conversion revenue increased by 3% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[24] - Automotive shipments decreased by 15% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[22] - Automotive conversion revenue decreased by 4% from 2Q24 to 2Q25[24] Outlook and Investments - Full run-rate for the Warrick roll coat line is expected in late 4Q 2025[18, 40] - Trentwood Phase VII is on track for completion in early 4Q 2025[18] - Kaiser Aluminum anticipates capital expenditures for FY 2025 to be in the range of $120 to $130 million[50] - Free Cash Flow for FY 2025 is expected to be in the range of $50 to $70 million[50]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group Limited (CHGL) is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$23.62, implying an 8.0x 2025 estimated P/E ratio [1] Investment Positives - CHGL is a leader in the aluminum industry with an integrated presence across the green aluminum value chain, focusing on high-quality green development [2] - The company has established a green ecosystem through optimizing energy structure, advancing green energy projects, and developing a circular industry to meet China's carbon neutrality goals [2] Raw Material Self-Sufficiency - CHGL has a high self-sufficiency ratio in raw materials, with a bauxite production base in Guinea (60 million tons annually) and alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons in Shandong, China, and 2 million tons in Indonesia [3] Energy Optimization and Production Capacity - The company is relocating aluminum production capacity to Yunnan province, aiming to increase its exposure to green power-based aluminum to 46% [4] Downstream Expansion - CHGL is expanding into lightweight automotive materials to further develop a green and recycling industry [5] Market Opportunities - The aluminum sector is expected to present investment opportunities due to a supply shortage, with proactive fiscal and monetary policies likely to improve macro expectations and boost aluminum prices [6] Competitive Advantages - CHGL has four key competitive advantages: substantial upside potential in profit and valuation, high self-sufficiency in raw materials, a high dividend payout ratio (62%) and yield (8.9% in 2024), and a focus on building a green aluminum value chain [7] Differentiation from Market - Unlike the market's focus on earnings driven by price hikes, CHGL's high self-sufficiency and transformation towards a green value chain may enhance product competitiveness and valuation premium [8] Financial Projections - Expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are Rmb2.63 and Rmb2.70, indicating a CAGR of 6%, with the stock trading at 6.8x 2025e and 6.5x 2026e P/E [8]

NHK：日美双方同意维持目前50%的钢铁和铝材关税。 ...

Core Points - Century Aluminum Company closed a private offering of 6.875% senior secured notes due August 2032, raising gross proceeds of $400 million [1] - The net proceeds from the offering were approximately $395 million, which will be used to refinance existing debt, repay borrowings, and cover offering expenses [2] - The Secured Notes will pay interest semi-annually at a rate of 6.875% per annum, starting February 1, 2026, and will mature on August 1, 2032 [3] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is the largest producer of primary aluminum in the United States and operates production facilities in Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [6]

Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when Constellium (CSTM) reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on July 29, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. ...

Financial Performance - Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was NOK 7,790 million, an increase from NOK 5,839 million in the same quarter last year, driven by higher aluminium and energy prices, and realization of previously eliminated internal profits [1] - Free cash flow generated by Hydro was NOK 5 billion, with a twelve-month adjusted RoaCE of 12 percent [1] - Compared to Q1 2025, adjusted EBITDA decreased from NOK 9,516 million to NOK 7,790 million, primarily due to lower realized alumina prices and negative currency effects [17] Strategic Adjustments - Hydro is reducing its 2025 capital expenditure guidance by NOK 1.5 billion to NOK 13.5 billion to ensure financial flexibility amid global market uncertainty [2][3] - An external hiring freeze for white-collar workers has been implemented pending a review of current and future staffing needs [2][6] - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, and maintaining optionality in response to shifting market conditions [5] Market Conditions - The global market is increasingly uncertain due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, complicating demand forecasting and capacity planning [3] - Hydro's strategy emphasizes the demand for low-carbon aluminium, with a focus on preserving financial strength and improving capital efficiency [4] Operational Challenges - Hydro's second-largest wind power supplier in Sweden faced financial challenges, leading to the termination of a power purchase agreement with compensation of up to EUR 90 million [7] - In Brazil, grid constraints and regulatory uncertainty have limited solar and wind power deliveries, resulting in impairments of approximately NOK 400 million in the energy portfolio [8] Business Area Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Bauxite & Alumina decreased to NOK 1,521 million from NOK 1,616 million due to higher raw material costs and lower alumina sales prices [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Hydro Energy increased to NOK 1,069 million from NOK 611 million, attributed to higher production and gains on price area differences [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Aluminium Metal decreased to NOK 2,423 million from NOK 2,520 million, impacted by higher alumina costs and lower sales volume [14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Extrusions decreased to NOK 1,260 million from NOK 1,377 million, driven by lower sales margins despite higher sales volumes [16] Financial Position - Net income for Q2 2025 was NOK 2,450 million, which included various adjustments such as a NOK 480 million unrealized derivative loss and NOK 392 million impairment in equity accounted investments [18] - Hydro's net debt increased from NOK 15.1 billion to NOK 15.5 billion during Q2 2025, primarily due to EBITDA contributions and shareholder distributions [19] - Adjusted net debt rose from NOK 21.8 billion to NOK 23.0 billion, influenced by increased net pension liability and financial liabilities [20]