Market Overview - Global financial markets are influenced by shifting monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and varied economic data [2] - Commodity markets, currency pairs, and equity futures are reacting to these influential factors [2] Commodities Sector - Copper prices have declined, with the LME three-month contract dropping to USD 10,669.00 per ton [3] - The decline is attributed to skepticism regarding a potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with only a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point cut indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool [3] Geopolitical Developments - The UN Security Council is preparing for a vote on a US-drafted resolution for an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, which includes a controversial clause on a "pathway to a Palestinian state" [4] - The proposed ISF is expected to comprise approximately 20,000 troops, with initial deployment anticipated by January 2026 [4] Currency Markets - The Japanese Yen has weakened to a nine-month low against the US Dollar, trading around 154.82 per dollar, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's rate-hike decisions [5] - The USD/CAD pair is maintaining gains near 1.4050, while the Canadian Dollar struggles due to declining crude oil prices, with WTI trading at approximately $59.30 per barrel [5] US Equity Markets - NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures indicate a higher open, supported by optimism surrounding the anticipated end of a US government shutdown [6] - Donald Trump has reversed his stance, now advocating for a vote to release Jeffrey Epstein files while simultaneously suing the Wall Street Journal for $10 billion [6] Economic Data - Thailand's economy grew by 3.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, an acceleration from the 3.0% growth in Q3 [7] - Private consumption increased by 3.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to overall economic expansion [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call covered the materials sector in China, specifically focusing on lithium, copper, and steel industries [1][7]. Lithium Industry Insights - **Lithium Deficit**: A potential deficit of 50-60kt LCE is expected in 2026 due to stronger-than-anticipated demand from energy storage systems (ESS) [2]. - **Demand Growth**: ESS battery shipments are projected to grow by 50-80% YoY, while electric vehicle (EV) battery shipments may increase by 8-15% YoY [2]. - **Supply and Pricing**: Global lithium supply is estimated at 1.8-1.9 million tons, with demand reaching approximately 2 million tons. Industry players expect lithium prices to rise above Rmb100k/t [2][30]. Copper Industry Insights - **Copper Deficit**: The global copper deficit is anticipated to widen to around 500kt in 2026, influenced by three major accidents in 2025 [3]. - **Demand Trends**: China's copper demand is expected to grow by 5% in 2025 but slow to 2.5% in 2026 due to EV subsidy cuts. Power-related demand is projected to grow less than 1% [3][20]. - **Price Expectations**: The price outlook for copper is under pressure, with a tight supply expected moving into 2026 [17]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Margins**: Steel margins are under pressure, with 60% of industry participants currently operating at a loss. Production cuts are beginning due to weak earnings and seasonal demand [5][27]. - **Price Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to drop to around US$90/t in 2026, influenced by new supply from projects like Simandou [5][29]. - **Export Trends**: China's steel exports are expected to remain high, particularly to "Belt and Road" countries, despite challenges from the EU's lower import quotas [5][15]. Company-Specific Insights - **Baosteel**: Reported good Q3 2025 results driven by cost savings and increased auto sheet orders. However, steel gross profit per ton is narrowing due to high iron ore prices [10][11]. - **CMOC**: Guided for at least 760kt of copper production in 2026, with long-term expectations of reaching 800-1,000kt by 2028 [21]. Cobalt exports may be limited in Q4 2025 due to government regulations [23]. - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Expects lithium to be in deficit for 50-100kt LCE in 2026, with strong demand from ESS and electrification of vehicles [30]. The Goulamina project is expected to ship 500kt of spodumene concentrate in 2026 [31]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: Recent price increases have shifted Chinese buyers' price expectations from US$10k/t to US$12k/t [4]. - **Production Cuts**: Private steel mills in Tangshan have begun small production cuts due to environmental regulations and poor margins [26]. - **Future Demand**: Overall, China's domestic steel demand is expected to decline by 1-2% in 2026, but this may be offset by increased exports [28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the materials sector in China.

Geopolitical Developments - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has indicated that a conflict over Taiwan could be an existential risk for Japan, suggesting potential military action in response to a hypothetical Chinese invasion [3][8] - This statement reflects increasing concerns regarding regional security and may affect Japan-China relations [3] Technology Sector Performance - Asian markets are rebounding, primarily driven by the technology sector, following previous volatility related to AI [4][8] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) reported October sales of NT$367.47 billion, marking a 16.9% year-over-year increase, with year-to-date sales climbing 33.8% to NT$3.13 trillion [4][8] Commodities Market Outlook - The global copper market is projected to face its most severe deficit in 22 years, with a forecasted shortfall of -590,000 tons in 2026, raising concerns over supply constraints [5][8] Retirement Fund Legal Issues - In the United States, there is a rising trend of lawsuits against employers regarding excessive retirement fund fees, indicating increased scrutiny on the management of employee retirement plans [6][8] Analyst Ratings Adjustments - TD Cowen has reduced its price target for Honeywell International (HON) to $240 from $250, while RBC Capital has increased its price target for Enbridge Inc. (ENB) to C$72 from C$67 [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the metals and materials industry, with a particular emphasis on aluminium, copper, gold, and construction materials [2][3][4][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilient Metals Demand**: Despite various challenges, metals demand has remained strong, driven by front-loading shipments to the US and increasing demand from sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI data centers [2][9]. - **Supply Disruptions Impacting Aluminium**: Aluminium prices have increased by 8% month-on-month due to robust demand and supply disruptions, including partial output disruptions at Century Aluminum's smelter in Iceland and potential power supply issues at South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique [3][9]. - **China's Production Ceiling**: China's production ceiling of 45 million tonnes for aluminium, combined with low inventories and strong investments in the grid and EV demand, supports a positive outlook for aluminium [3][6]. - **Gold ETF Inflows**: Gold ETFs saw record inflows of USD 8.7 billion in the week ending October 22, leading to a rally in gold prices, although prices have since moderated due to profit booking [5][9]. - **Long-term Outlook for Construction Materials**: While the current demand for construction materials is lukewarm, the long-term outlook remains positive, contingent on the execution of supply-side reforms and earnings improvements [6][9]. Additional Important Insights - **China's 15th Five-Year Plan**: The plan emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and accelerating developments in new sectors, which may lead to policy changes aimed at tackling excess supply and boosting demand [4][9]. - **Price Forecast Adjustments**: Recent adjustments to price forecasts for metals reflect current market fundamentals, with copper and cobalt receiving the most significant upgrades due to supply disruptions [2][9]. - **Commodity Price Trends**: The report includes detailed commodity price trends, showing fluctuations in prices for various metals, including copper, aluminium, and gold, with specific percentage changes over different time frames [10][11]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a complex landscape for the metals and materials industry, characterized by resilient demand, significant supply disruptions, and evolving policy frameworks in China. The focus on aluminium as a preferred investment reflects the current market dynamics and future potential in the sector [6][9].

Trade & Logistics - Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia, restoring cargo flows [1] - The border reopening is crucial for Africa's two biggest copper exporters [1] - The border closure was due to post-election unrest [1] Copper Industry Impact - The reopening restores a key trade corridor for copper exports [1] - The unrest had brought consignments to a standstill last week [1]

Core Insights - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) stock has surged by 57% year-to-date, driven by increased revenue, margin improvements, and a rising P/E multiple, indicating renewed investor confidence [2][3] Revenue and Earnings Performance - Revenue increased by 9.2%, with Q1 2025 sales rising by 20.1% to $3.12 billion and Q3 revenues up by 15.2% to $3.38 billion [3][8] - Net margin improved by 8.4% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 was reported at $1.35 [8] Copper Price and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have surged over 27% year-to-date, reaching record levels above $11,200 per metric ton due to limited supply [8] Project Developments - The Tia Maria project is 23% complete as of October 2025, with an exploitation license granted and production expected by 2027 [8] Cost Efficiency and By-product Growth - Operating cash cost, excluding by-products, decreased to $0.42 per pound in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 44.7% [8] - By-product production saw significant increases: zinc by 46.3%, silver by 16.4%, and molybdenum by 8.3% in Q3 2025, contributing to revenue growth [8]

Summary of Key Points from Copper Expert Call with SMM Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Industry in China - **Date of Call**: October 23, 2025 - **Participants**: Mr. Ye Jianhua, Chief Copper Analyst at SMM Key Takeaways Copper Price Outlook - SMM indicates that the downstream sector is inclined to restock as copper prices in China have decreased to Rmb82-83k/t due to low inventory levels [1][2] - The average copper price is projected to be Rmb83.5-84k/t in 2026E, compared to Rmb80.5k/t in 2025E, which is considered conservative given the downstream pushback [1][2] - Spot prices could potentially reach approximately Rmb90k/t [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper concentrate output is expected to increase by over 600kt YoY in 2026E [3] - China's copper cathode output is anticipated to rise by 1.3-1.35 million tonnes (mnt) YoY in 2025E and by 600-620kt in 2026E, with limited production cuts expected [3] - Both global copper cathode supply and consumption are projected to grow by 3-3.5% YoY in 2026E, despite tight supply conditions [3] Recycling Copper Policy - Crude copper capacity from scrap is primarily located in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, affected by regulatory concerns [4] - The output impact from recycling copper products was estimated at 50-60kt in August and 20kt per month in September and October due to policy uncertainties [4] Consumption Trends in China - Copper consumption in China was weak in September and October 2025, particularly in the power segment and home appliances, attributed to high copper prices [5] - Negative YoY growth in copper consumption is expected for September-October 2025 due to a high base in Q4 2024 [5] International Market Dynamics - Overseas copper traders are showing willingness to purchase copper amid concerns over production cuts in international smelting capacity [5] - SMM expects continued shipments of copper to the US market due to the premium of Comex copper prices over LME [7] Additional Insights - The transition from aluminum to copper in power and home appliances is expected to be slow despite high copper prices, due to low fault tolerance [8] - Global copper demand from the data center industry is projected to reach 500-600kt in 2025E, with an increase of 250-300kt YoY in subsequent years [9] Conclusion The copper industry in China is experiencing a complex interplay of price dynamics, supply and demand shifts, and regulatory impacts. The outlook suggests cautious optimism with potential price increases, but challenges remain in consumption and recycling policies.

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to tariff disputes, leading to increased competition among buyers for the metal [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The scramble among buyers highlights the competitive landscape in the copper market as tariffs impact supply and demand [1] - Tariff-related challenges have intensified the urgency for companies to secure copper, a critical raw material for various industries [1]

Company Overview - Invest Heroes LLC is a CIS-based research firm founded in 2018, providing equity and fixed income research services that have gained local recognition among professional investors and private clients [1] - The firm covers over 120 Russian, US, and Chinese stocks, as well as more than 200 Russian bonds, including corporate and state-owned enterprises [1] - The team consists of 2 strategists and 9 analysts, achieving global professional recognition and participating in platforms like Refinitiv and Factset [1] Achievements - In its first year, the company entered Refinitiv and Factset, and by the second year, its estimates began to contribute to the Refinitiv consensus [1] - By the third year, the firm was recognized as the best analysts in the Refinitiv rating for several Russian companies and is in the process of signing with S&P Market Intelligence [1] - The firm's forecasts are often ahead of the market due to a detailed business model built for each company [1] Industry Context - The company owns the largest reserves among public companies in the industry, benefiting from the current market situation [2] - Global demand for copper is expected to rise amid structural constraints on ramping up supply, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [2]

Core Insights - Copper consumption in the U.S. and India is expected to grow significantly over the next decade, moving away from reliance on China as its demand growth slows [1][2] - Analysts predict that while China will remain the largest copper market, other regions will increasingly influence demand and pricing due to changing policies and geopolitical factors [2][3] Demand Trends - China's copper consumption and stockpiling are projected to decline, with a shift back to traditional drivers of copper demand, such as replacement cycles outside of China [3][4] - U.S. copper demand is forecasted to reach 2.2 million tons by 2031, a nearly 50% increase from 2026, while India's demand is expected to exceed 1 million tons, representing over a 30% rise [5] Market Dynamics - By 2031, China is expected to account for 52% of global primary copper consumption, down from 57% in 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] - The U.S. tariffs on copper pipes and wiring are anticipated to boost local production, potentially leading to a significant loss of market for Chinese copper exports [6][7]