The Trump administration said it will step up scrutiny of imports of steel, copper, lithium and other materials from China to enforce a US ban on goods allegedly made with forced labor in the country’s Xinjiang region https://t.co/gu7zlWXKMd ...

Group 1 - Copper Crown Copper Foil has experienced a decline for seven consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -11.09% [1] - Anhui Copper Crown Copper Foil Group Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise in electronic materials, established by Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. and Hefei Guoxuan High-tech Power Energy Co., Ltd. [1] - The company has two wholly-owned subsidiaries: Hefei Copper Crown Electronic Copper Foil Co., Ltd. and Tongling Copper Crown Electronic Copper Foil Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Southern Fund's Southern CSI 1000 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Copper Crown Copper Foil and has reduced its holdings in the second quarter of this year [1] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.36%, ranking 610 out of 2519 in its category [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Southern CSI 1000 ETF is Ms. Cui Lei, who has a master's degree in financial engineering from Cornell University and holds qualifications as a Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) [3][4] - Ms. Cui Lei has been with Southern Fund since February 2015 and has held various positions, including manager for multiple ETFs [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. copper market experienced its largest single-day drop ever due to President Trump's decision to exclude refined copper from the tariff list, surprising traders [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The White House announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products starting August 1, but refined copper is excluded from this tariff [3][10]. - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the COMEX plummeted by 20%, and the premium of U.S. copper prices over LME benchmark prices significantly decreased from 28% [3]. - Earlier this year, Trump's hints at potential tariffs had already caused U.S. copper prices to surge relative to global markets, leading traders to rush shipments to the U.S. for profit [6]. Group 2: Implications for Global Trade and Industry - Excluding refined copper from tariffs may disrupt global trade flows of this metal further [8]. - The copper industry lobbied for this decision, arguing that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to immediately replace all copper imports [9]. - The International Copper Association's president stated that this decision protects U.S. interests while maintaining close ties with reliable partners, ensuring the security and resilience of the copper supply chain [9]. Group 3: Future Tariff Considerations - The prospect of imposing tariffs on refined copper is not entirely off the table, as the White House indicated a potential phased implementation starting in 2027, with rates increasing to 30% by 2028 [10]. - The Commerce Department has been instructed to provide an update on the U.S. copper market by June 2026 to assess the necessity of these tariffs [10]. Group 4: Impact on Companies - The announcement has negatively impacted the stock prices of U.S. producers like Freeport-McMoRan Inc. due to the weakening of the U.S. copper price premium [10]. - Conversely, major refined copper exporters, such as Chile's state-owned Codelco, expressed relief at the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs, viewing it as positive news for their operations and U.S. customers [11].

Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Metals Activity Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry in China, specifically tracking inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc as of the week ended July 18, 2025 [1][11]. Key Insights 1. **Copper Inventory Trends** - China typically experiences significant destocking of copper inventories from now until September. However, recent data shows a slowing pace of inventory drawdowns, with copper inventories increasing by 3,000 tons last week [1][12]. - The five-year average indicates a normal destocking of approximately 200,000 tons of copper during this period [1][12]. 2. **Steel Mill Margins** - There has been a notable improvement in China steel mill margins over the last three weeks, leading to a ~10% increase in iron ore prices to $102 per ton. Average hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel mill margins have returned to profitability for the first time since early 2023 [2][9]. - Rebar margins are close to breakeven, marking the strongest profitability since early 2023 [2][9]. 3. **Iron Ore Shipments and Production** - Iron ore shipments to China from Australia and Brazil have shown mixed results, with Australian shipments down by 4.3% week-over-week but up 8.2% year-over-year. Brazilian shipments increased by 23.9% week-over-week but decreased by 11.3% year-over-year [4][2]. - Total iron ore arrivals in China increased by 13.7% week-over-week, indicating a robust demand [4][2]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper** - A potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, effective August 1, could reduce U.S. demand by approximately 4%, translating to a 0.2% decline in global copper demand [3][12]. - The U.S. exports around 540,000 to 580,000 tons of copper scrap annually, which could help mitigate a primary deficit of 700,000 to 800,000 tons per annum, although increased recycling capacity may take 2-3 years [3][12]. 5. **Physical Demand Indicators** - Despite recent increases in copper, aluminum, and zinc inventories, overall inventories remain at their lowest levels in over five years for this time of year, indicating tight physical markets [12][13]. - China's copper premium has risen by 70% in the last two weeks, reaching approximately $50 per ton, although it remains significantly below the year-to-date high of $103 per ton [12][13]. Additional Observations - The report highlights that the next ten weeks will be critical for assessing the health of Chinese physical copper consumers, as historical trends suggest a shift towards improved demand during this period [12][13]. - The report also includes detailed tables and figures illustrating inventory levels, shipment data, and price forecasts for various metals, providing a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics [4][9][34]. Conclusion - The J.P. Morgan report provides valuable insights into the current state of the metals industry in China, highlighting trends in inventory, pricing, and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on copper demand. The data suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors that investors should monitor closely.

Financial Performance - Freeport-McMoRan expects an additional $17 billion (1700 million) in US copper sales per year [1] Market Trends - Domestic prices of copper are showing a premium [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **aluminium and copper industries** in the context of recent US tariffs and trade flows, particularly in Europe and North America [1][2][3]. Aluminium Insights - **US primary aluminium imports** decreased by **15%** from 2024 levels in April and May, primarily affecting Canadian volumes due to tariffs impacting consumer demand [2][12]. - The **Midwest premium** for aluminium is currently around **68 cents/lb**, needing to rise to **70-75 cents/lb** to incentivize flows to the US [2][20]. - **US aluminium scrap imports** surged by **35%** from March to May compared to 2024, driven by high-quality scrap to support rolling mills [2][27]. - The **market share** of Canadian aluminium has dropped from **70%** in 2024 to **63%**, while the UAE's share increased from approximately **11%** to over **20%** [13][16]. - The **Midwest premium** is close to pricing in the **50% tariff**, indicating a potential increase in buying activity as US inventories are low [19][22]. Copper Insights - **US refined copper imports** have nearly tripled year-to-date from 2024 levels, primarily from seaborne sources, but have slowed recently due to impending tariffs [3][34]. - A **front-loading** of **400 kt** of refined copper has occurred, providing a buffer against the COMEX-LME spread, but semi-fabricated product imports have been slower [3][36]. - The **COMEX-LME spread** is expected to reach **40%** by Q4 2025 and **45%** by Q1 2026 as inventory buffers are reduced [4][71]. - **US copper scrap** continues to be priced for export, with the discount for no.2 scrap offsetting the COMEX premium, indicating limited domestic processing capacity [49][50]. Market Outlook - Limited further upside is anticipated for the **Midwest premium**, but there is potential for **LME aluminium prices** to rise as US buying improves and global scrap availability tightens [4][33]. - The **tariffs** on aluminium have made it less competitive compared to copper, prompting some US can producers to explore alternative materials [33]. - **Indonesia** and **Chile** are being discussed as potential sources for exemptions from tariffs, with Indonesia's refined copper production expected to grow significantly by 2026 [63][70]. Additional Considerations - The **US aluminium industry** would require an investment of approximately **$30 billion** and **6 GW** of energy to add **4 million tonnes** of smelting capacity domestically [31]. - The **implied grade** of US scrap exports has been declining, suggesting that higher-grade scrap is remaining in the US for domestic use [57][59]. - The **tariff exemptions** and their implications continue to create volatility in the market, particularly for aluminium and copper [71][72]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the aluminium and copper industries.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The passage states that the passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US Senate, an increase in the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and a decline in China's domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a rebound in copper prices. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, while paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,840 yuan, down 140 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 54,262 lots, a decrease of 6,664 lots; the open interest was 153,791 lots, down 6,666 lots; the inventory was 68,127 tons, a decrease of 8,103 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,020 yuan, down 40 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 180 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou was 65 yuan, up 5 yuan; in North China, it was - 120 yuan, up 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 15 yuan, up 25 yuan [2]. - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20 yuan, down 10 yuan; the spread between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 40 yuan, unchanged [2]. 1.2 London Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,678 US dollars, up 41 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 122,150 tons compared to before [2]. - The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 58.71 US dollars, up 5.78 US dollars; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 113 US dollars, up 9.23 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0430, down 0.05 [2]. 1.3 COMEX Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.498 US dollars, down 0.02 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [2]. 2. Company Production - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 229,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 is 780,000 - 850,000 tons [2]. 3. Macro and Industry Situation 3.1 Macro - The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the US consumer inflation rate in June. However, the US producer inflation rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The increasing expectation of Powell's early departure raises the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September or December [4]. 3.2 Upstream - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates increased from last week. The port throughput and inventory of copper concentrates in China changed. The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the Sino - US trade dispute, and the negative or rising spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper affect the scrap copper market, with expected changes in production and import volume in July and tight supply - demand expectations [4]. - Some copper smelters had production adjustments. Glencore's 200,000 - ton SBX copper smelter in the Philippines, the Namibian roweb copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources, and Glencore's 350,000 - ton anode copper plant in Chile suspended production. The Kaooe Kakula copper smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be put into operation in June 2025 with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Several projects in China are in progress or planned [4]. - The weekly processing fee of copper in northern and southern China changed. The planned maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in July may decrease, and the production and import volume of domestic copper in July are expected to increase. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area increased, while the social inventory decreased. The inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased due to shipments to the US [4]. 3.3 Downstream - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and cable in East China decreased. Some refined copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production and inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The operating rates of refined and recycled copper rod production, copper wire and cable production, copper strip production, and copper foil production changed, with different trends [4]. - Affected by factors such as the Sino - US trade situation and the traditional off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - The report suggests that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [4]

Company Operations & Strategy - Company faced cross-currency management challenges due to mining sector performance and international trade uncertainty [1] - Company's origins trace back to the 1940s, listed on TSX in 2006, and underwent a major transformation starting in 2017 with new assets, balance sheet, and team [5][6] - Company planned NASDAQ public offering for over two years, driven by growth plan and investor interest [6][7] - Company aimed to increase daily trading volume, raise capital, and access larger US investors through NASDAQ listing [8] Financial Performance & Growth - Company grew from a market size of $0.5 billion to $2 billion [8] Production & Revenue - Gold accounts for approximately 80% of the company's revenues, while copper contributes around 20% [3] - Copper concentrate produced in New Mexico is sold domestically to Trafigura for export [4] - Gold exports from Brazil are directed to Europe and Canada [4] Geographic Exposure - In the previous year, Mexico and Honduras each accounted for approximately 30% of operations, with Brazil contributing the remaining 40% [2] - Future growth projects include two in Brazil and one in Guatemala, with increased exposure to gold [2]

Industry Concerns Regarding Tariffs - Potential tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper could hinder investments in AI infrastructure due to increased costs [1] - The imposition of tariffs aims to level the playing field, encouraging domestic steel production [4] National Security and Domestic Production - Domestic steel production is crucial for national security, enabling the construction of ships and missiles [3][4] - The ability to mine raw materials like iron ore and copper domestically is essential [5] Trade Practices and Government Subsidies - Concerns exist about foreign countries, such as China, Japan, and Korea, subsidizing their steel industries, leading to the dumping of steel and harming domestic companies [3] - Tariffs are proposed to counteract government subsidies provided to foreign steel companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]