Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso, with a 12-month price target of $23.10 for ADR and HK$45.00 for H-share, indicating an upside potential of 34.5% and 33.7% respectively [14][17]. Core Insights - Miniso is expected to experience sequential sales growth acceleration, with management confident in margin improvement and a peak in DTC-related expenses in the first half of the year [1][2]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) turned positive in May for Miniso China, and positive trends were also observed in the US and other overseas markets [1][7]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings, focusing on both intellectual property (IP) products and value-for-money lifestyle products, with localized designs for overseas markets [1][10]. - Management aims to expand to over 1,000 stores in the US market, targeting a 20% operating profit margin in the mid to long term, despite potential short-term volatility [1][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Growth and Guidance - For Q2 2025, Miniso China is expected to achieve low teens percentage sales growth, while Miniso Overseas and Top Toy are projected to grow by 25%-30% and 70%-80% year-over-year respectively [8]. - If the SSSG recovery trend continues, operating profits are likely to turn positive in Q3, with full-year adjusted operating profits targeted at RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion [8]. Product Strategy - The company is enhancing its IP product quality and focusing on localized designs for international markets, while also improving the merchandising of value-for-money products [10][12]. - A dedicated zone for top-selling products has been added to increase conversion rates, and inventory management will be prioritized to avoid stockouts of best-sellers [11]. Market Performance - Year-to-date, Miniso China's SSSG has shown improvement, with positive trends in the US market and other overseas markets noted in April and May [7][11]. - The US market has seen the opening of approximately 20 new stores, primarily in plaza locations, achieving double-digit operating profit margins despite being in a low season [11]. Long-term Outlook - Miniso is positioned to become a leading global IP retailer, with catalysts for share price growth including accelerated store expansion, improved SSSG, and higher contributions from IP products [14]. - The market currently underappreciates Miniso's potential adjusted net income compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% from 2024 to 2026, excluding contributions from Yonghui [14].

Group 1 - The retail space presents occasional investment opportunities despite general skepticism [1] - PriceSmart is highlighted as a notable example of a potential investment in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - Crude Value Insights offers an investment service focused on oil and natural gas, emphasizing cash flow and growth prospects [1] - Subscribers benefit from a stock model account, cash flow analyses of exploration and production firms, and live sector discussions [2]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced modest midday gains as investors reacted to President Trump's trade policy developments, particularly the three-month suspension of the planned 25% tariffs on Chinese imports, including critical components like GPUs and solar panels [1] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, driven by positive labor market indicators, with job openings rising by 191,000 to 7.391 million, exceeding expectations [2] - The Russell 2000 index increased by 1.9%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, indicating strong performance in small-cap stocks [3] Sector Performance - The energy sector saw significant gains, with WTI light crude oil prices reaching $63.6 per barrel, the highest in two weeks, amid supply concerns related to Russia [5] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, rising by 1.7%, while the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund lagged, decreasing by 0.5% [6] Notable Stock Movements - Dollar General Corp. experienced a notable increase of 14% following stronger-than-expected earnings and a positive outlook, marking its best performance since going public in 2009 [3] - Other stocks reacting positively to earnings included Signet Jewelers Ltd., which rose by 10%, and Ferguson Enterprises Inc., which increased by 14% [8] - Kenvue Inc. led S&P 500 losses, dropping 6.8% after warnings of weaker second-quarter shipments due to inventory cuts amid tariff uncertainties [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumer market in Nanjing during the Dragon Boat Festival, with various promotional activities boosting sales significantly [1][3][5] - Over the three-day holiday, key monitored retail enterprises in Nanjing achieved a total sales revenue of 14.23 billion yuan, marking an 8.67% year-on-year increase [1] - Major shopping malls and complexes reported a combined sales revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 22.54% [3] Group 2 - The New Street commercial area saw a remarkable sales performance, with department stores achieving a total sales of 3.66 billion yuan, which is a 28.26% increase compared to the previous year [5] - The integration of cultural, sports, and commercial activities during the holiday period catered to new consumer demands, enhancing the overall shopping experience [7] - Events such as concerts and sports matches attracted large crowds, with over 15,000 attendees at a concert and more than 13,000 at an electronic music festival, indicating a strong interest in entertainment [9] Group 3 - The supply of essential goods remained stable during the holiday, with daily vegetable arrivals at the wholesale market averaging 3,001 tons, consistent with the previous year [11] - The average wholesale price of 69 vegetable varieties was 5.39 yuan per kilogram, showing stability compared to both pre-holiday and last year's prices [11] - The average retail price for pork and common vegetables remained steady, with slight year-on-year decreases noted for certain meat cuts [11]

Market Overview - Markets closed flat-to-up on the first trading day of June, with the Dow finishing +35 points (+0.08%), S&P 500 rising +24 points (+0.41%), and Nasdaq outperforming with +128 points (+0.67%) [1] - Small-cap Russell 2000 rose +0.19% on the day [1] Trade and Economic Indicators - Recent trade tensions were highlighted by President Trump's announcement of a +50% tariff on steel and aluminum, which impacted market sentiment [2] - Renewed interest in AI supported tech stocks, while oil companies benefited from $63 per barrel oil prices [2] Manufacturing and Construction Data - S&P final Manufacturing PMI for May showed a slight decline to 52.0, which was 30 basis points below estimates, while ISM Manufacturing came in at +48.5%, down 20 basis points from April [3] - Construction Spending for April was reported at -0.4%, which was 60 basis points below expectations of +0.2%, marking the third negative month in the first four of 2025 [4] Upcoming Economic Reports - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April is expected to decrease to 7.1 million from 7.2 million [5] - Factory Orders for April are anticipated to decline by -3.3%, down from +4.3% in March, reflecting concerns related to the trade war [6] Company Earnings Reports - Dollar General is expected to report a negative -10.9% earnings per share with +3.76% revenue growth, while CrowdStrike is projected to show negative -29% earnings per share growth with +20% revenue growth [7]

Group 1: Consumer Spending and Trends - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Beijing's retail sectors, including department stores, supermarkets, and restaurants, achieved sales of 4.18 billion yuan, marking a 1.6% increase year-on-year [3] - The total foot traffic in 60 key commercial districts reached 23.28 million, a 2.1% increase compared to the previous year, with nighttime foot traffic growing by 25.7% [3] - The children's and family-oriented consumption segments saw explosive growth, with children's meal orders increasing by 64% in the first two days of the holiday [7] Group 2: New Store Openings and Events - Numerous new brands opened during the holiday, including global toy brand X11 and French fashion brand American Vintage, enhancing the trendy lifestyle offerings in Beijing [5] - The "Big Children's Day" series of themed activities at Chaoyang Joy City attracted significant foot traffic, with a 9.4% increase on Children's Day [4] - The "Mouse Bobo 35th Anniversary Birthday Party" at COFCO Xiangyun Town became a popular event, drawing nearly 150,000 visitors in the two days leading up to the holiday [4] Group 3: Performance of Traditional Brands - Traditional brands, particularly time-honored restaurants, performed exceptionally well during the holiday, with sales at Quyuan Restaurant and Qingfeng Baozi Shop increasing by 24.6% and 23.1% respectively [8] - Beijing Daoxiangcun launched various limited-edition products for the festival, including nine flavors of packaged rice dumplings, which contributed to a rise in consumer interest [8] - E-commerce platforms also saw a surge in rice dumpling sales, with Dingdong Maicai reporting a 20% year-on-year increase in sales during the festival period [9] Group 4: Movie Box Office Performance - The total box office for the Dragon Boat Festival period reached 438 million yuan, a significant increase from 383 million yuan the previous year [11] - The film "Mission: Impossible 8" led the box office with 226 million yuan, breaking multiple historical records [12] - The audience demographic was notably balanced, with a near-equal gender ratio, and family viewership increased due to the overlap with Children's Day [13]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 gained 6.1% in May, marking its best performance since an 8.9% rise in November two years ago [2] Employment and Labor Market - Economists expect a gain of 130,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% [5] - Wells Fargo economists indicate that May's employment report will reflect the labor market's response to recent trade uncertainties, with hiring appetite among firms remaining low [6][7] - New job postings on Indeed fell to their lowest level since 2020 in May, and hiring plans among small businesses are near cycle lows [7] Earnings Reports - Broadcom is expected to report a 43% year-over-year increase in profit and nearly 20% growth in revenue, driven by AI-related demand and strong semiconductor positioning [8] - CrowdStrike is anticipated to post EPS of $0.66 on revenue of $1.11 billion, with RBC analysts expressing optimism for software stocks in 2025 [10] Bond Market Concerns - Jamie Dimon warns of a potential crack in the bond market due to rising federal debt, urging the government to take remedial measures [11][12] - Dimon suggests that the timeline for a potential crisis could range from six months to six years [13] EV Market Performance - XPeng reported May deliveries of 33,525 Smart EVs, a 230% year-over-year increase, and a year-to-date total of 162,578 Smart EVs, up 293% [13] - Li Auto delivered 40,856 vehicles, up 16.66% year-over-year, while NIO delivered 23,231 vehicles, a 13.1% year-over-year increase [14] Financial Market Outlook - BofA indicates that financial markets are at a high-stakes inflection point, with risk assets poised for a significant move, either a breakout or a breakdown [16]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents an opportunity for investors to consider quality dividend stocks, as recent challenges have led to lower stock prices and higher yields for leading retail and consumer goods brands [1][2]. Target - Target's stock is currently 64% off its highs, but the company has a history of rebounding from challenges, having previously invested in a robust omnichannel strategy that positioned it well for e-commerce growth [4][8]. - The company faces several pressures, including slow sales growth due to inflation, a smaller grocery segment compared to competitors, and politically motivated consumer boycotts, which have affected consumer confidence [5][6]. - Comparable sales dropped 3.8% year over year in the first quarter, while operating income increased by 13.6%, and same-day delivery saw a 35% year-over-year increase [6]. - Target has a strong digital presence and a robust membership program, and it is a Dividend King with a history of raising dividends for 53 years, currently offering a yield of 4.6% [7][8]. Starbucks - Starbucks' stock is down 31% from its highs, but it remains a strong consumer brand with over 40,000 stores globally, generating healthy margins that support dividend payments [9][10]. - The company is experiencing weak sales, with comparable store sales down 1% year over year, and earnings have decreased by 50% compared to the previous year [10][12]. - A new CEO, Brian Niccol, is focused on improving customer experience and managing costs, which is expected to support future dividend growth [11][12]. - The current quarterly dividend payment is $0.61, resulting in a forward yield of 2.82%, the highest in years, making it an attractive investment for long-term income [13]. Home Depot - Home Depot's stock is currently 15% off its highs, and while it has historically been a top performer, it has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years, gaining only 19% compared to the index's 42% [14]. - The company is facing a slowdown in the housing market due to rising mortgage rates, leading to a 0.3% decline in comparable sales, although overall revenue increased by 9.4% to $39.9 billion due to an acquisition [15][16]. - Despite current challenges, there is a housing shortage estimated at around 4 million homes, which could eventually drive demand for home improvement materials [16]. - Home Depot offers a 2.5% dividend yield and has raised its dividend for 16 consecutive years, making it a strong candidate for long-term dividend growth [18].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of multiple consumer promotion activities in Wuhan during the Dragon Boat Festival, involving various platforms and businesses to stimulate local consumption [1][2][3] - Major platforms such as Hema, Meituan, Ele.me, Douyin, and Didi are collaborating to offer substantial consumer subsidies, amounting to several million yuan [1] - The promotional activities are categorized into four main sections: "Zong" Love Shopping, "Zong" Food Delights, "Zong" Patriotic Trends, and "Zong" Enjoy Renewal, featuring over 100 events [2][3] Group 2 - The "Zong" Love Shopping section includes events like the first external exhibition of Casio in Hubei, a snow dragon boat race, and various lifestyle festivals [2] - The "Zong" Food Delights section features food-related events such as a hamburger festival, craft beer festival, and themed promotions from local food brands [2] - The "Zong" Enjoy Renewal section aims to promote trade-in activities for consumer goods, leveraging technology and cultural tourism to enhance the shopping experience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The quarterly reports from Costco and AutoZone have initiated the Q2 earnings season, with Costco showing strong performance against consensus estimates, while broader expectations for the S&P 500 indicate a slowdown in earnings growth compared to Q1 [2][3][6]. Costco Performance - Costco reported earnings, revenues, and same-store sales that exceeded consensus estimates, with same-store sales increasing by +8% for the quarter, excluding gasoline and foreign exchange impacts, following a +9.1% growth in the previous period [3]. - The high single-digit growth in Costco's non-food merchandise suggests a competitive advantage over other retailers like Walmart and Target, likely due to its affluent customer base and potential market share gains [4]. - Despite tariff challenges, Costco's management noted that most merchandise is sourced domestically, with only about 25% of U.S. sales reliant on imports [5]. Broader Market Expectations - For Q2, S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise by +5.4% year-over-year, with revenues increasing by +3.7%, marking a significant deceleration from the +12% earnings growth and +4.7% revenue growth seen in Q1 [6]. - Since April, Q2 earnings estimates have been cut for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the most significant reductions in Transportation, Autos, Energy, Basic Materials, and Construction sectors [7]. - The Tech and Finance sectors, which contribute over 50% of S&P 500 earnings, have also seen downward revisions, although the Tech sector's revisions have stabilized recently due to easing tariff uncertainties [8][10][11].