期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：科技龙头试图上攻，股指分化 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：短线或可博弈反弹 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 27 日 | 蛋白粕：国际库存压力有限 | 价格整体支撑 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价区间震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货上涨，花生盘面大幅上涨 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪仍偏弱 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 16 | | --- | | 铜：美降息预期提高，铜 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-27 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Group 1 - Guizhou Province's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.8% in the first three quarters, with retail sales of limited enterprises growing by 5.1% [1] - The added value of wholesale and retail industries, as well as accommodation and catering industries, grew by 5.7% and 5.3% respectively [1] - The province has implemented a trade-in program to boost consumer spending, resulting in 28.86 million vehicle trade-ins and 377.5 million home appliance and digital product exchanges, generating a total consumption of 49.762 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Guizhou's online retail sales reached 104.93 billion yuan, marking a growth of 12.6% [2] - The province has established 8 provincial-level e-commerce demonstration parks, 51 e-commerce live streaming demonstration bases, and 348 e-commerce demonstration enterprises [2] - The province's automotive trade-in application volume and fund exchange rate ranked 7th and 2nd nationally, respectively, with significant growth in automotive and communication equipment sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chaozhou government is launching a series of consumer promotion activities from November 2025 to March 2026, themed "Enjoy Chaozhou, Warm Winter," aimed at boosting economic growth and enhancing consumer satisfaction [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will feature four main themes: sports activities, intangible cultural heritage tourism, traditional New Year celebrations, and immersive experiences in the ancient city [4]. - Five key brands will be highlighted, including fitness tourism, culinary experiences, film and television tourism, night markets, and traditional crafts [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The city has already organized nearly 20 promotional events this year, generating over 1.31 billion yuan in consumer spending through initiatives like vehicle trade-ins and appliance upgrades [3]. - The government aims to attract more tourists and enhance the local economy by improving tourism infrastructure and services [3][6]. Group 3: Consumer Benefits - Six major discount initiatives will be introduced, including free access to state-owned scenic spots for registered participants of the National Games and various dining and shopping vouchers [6][7]. - Specific subsidies will be provided for purchasing electronic products and new energy vehicles, with additional incentives for travel agencies based on visitor numbers [6][7].

Core Points - The "Yuegou Foshan Leyou Warm Winter" consumption season will take place from November 2025 to March 2026, aiming to boost market activity and consumer engagement through over 600 events across four themes and five brands [3][4][5][6][7] Group 1: Four Major Themes - The first theme, "Travel with the National Games," includes activities like "Travel with Events," "National Games + Boutique Events," and "Check-in with Champions" to promote public engagement through sports [4] - The second theme, "Welcome the Summit Forum," features inbound tourism and night economy initiatives, promoting Foshan as a weekend getaway destination [5] - The third theme, "Winter Vacation Study Tours in Foshan," offers cultural and educational travel experiences, highlighting local culinary and heritage tours [6] - The fourth theme, "Celebrate the New Year in Foshan," includes various traditional activities and events to create a festive atmosphere for the Spring Festival [7] Group 2: Five Major Consumer Brands - "Travel in Foshan" will promote key cultural tourism resources and create over 90 themed tourism routes [11] - "Food in Foshan" aims to enhance the city's reputation as a "World Food Capital" with a comprehensive food map and unique culinary experiences [12] - "Enjoy Foshan" will combine online and offline promotions for cultural events, including over 360 artistic activities [13] - "Fitness in Foshan" will organize sports events and fitness activities, promoting a healthy lifestyle [14] Group 3: Six Major Discount Policies - The "Quality Products Happy Purchase" initiative offers subsidies for various consumer goods, including home appliances and electric vehicles [15][21][22] - The "Dining Discounts" program provides meal vouchers and special offers for event participants [16] - The "Attraction Discounts" will introduce a tourism card for free or discounted entry to attractions for event attendees [17] - The "Hotel Discounts" will offer package deals for accommodations during events [18] - The "Convenient Travel" initiative will enhance public transport services for event participants [19] - A "Receipt Lottery" will incentivize consumer spending through a lottery system [20]

Core Viewpoint - Zhanjiang City is launching a "Winter Tour Zhanjiang Enjoy Exciting" consumption season from November to the first quarter of next year, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and enhance the shopping experience for both locals and tourists [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Policies and Measures - Zhanjiang has implemented measures to optimize the consumption environment, resulting in a retail sales total of 118.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the provincial average [3]. - The new consumption subsidy program includes a wide range of products such as automobiles, home appliances, local specialty products, electronic products, and sports goods, with a focus on accessibility and low thresholds for consumers [6][9]. - The new subsidy program is distinct from the 2025 old-for-new consumption subsidy, with different time frames and funding sources, and the two cannot be combined [6][9]. Group 2: Event Highlights and Themes - The consumption season will feature four main themes: "Warm Winter Fun Tour Zhanjiang," "Trendy Youth Vitality Zhanjiang," "Delicious Food Zhanjiang," and "Affordable Shopping Zhanjiang," leveraging the upcoming opening of the Guangzhan High-speed Railway and the 15th National Games [12]. - Three major events will take place during the consumption season: a sports-themed event in November-December, a winter study tour in January-February, and a unique coastal Spring Festival experience in February-March [12]. Group 3: Financial Support and Consumer Experience - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide credit support for service consumption sectors, with preferential interest rates for eligible consumers [14]. - Market regulation departments will enhance consumer protection measures, ensuring quality and integrity in business practices while facilitating consumer complaints [16]. - Various promotional activities, including dining vouchers and themed shopping events, will be launched to stimulate consumer interest and spending [17][18].

Core Points - Dongguan officially launched the "Shopping Dongguan, Trend Up!" cross-year consumption season activity on November 5, 2025, which will last until March 2026, aiming to boost economic activity in the Greater Bay Area [1][3] - The event will cover six major sectors: retail, catering, cultural tourism, agriculture, culture, and sports, with over a thousand enterprises and platforms expected to participate [1][3] - The initiative is designed to stimulate market vitality and enhance the foundational role of consumption in economic development through a comprehensive activity design [3][4] Retail Sector - "Shopping Dongguan" focuses on retail consumption, offering subsidies for trade-in programs for automobiles, electric bicycles, and home appliances, and promoting local products through online sales [4][13] - Retail consumption vouchers will be distributed during key periods such as New Year and Spring Festival, covering essential categories like 3C products, home goods, and food [4][13] Catering Sector - "Tasting Dongguan" aims to boost accommodation and dining consumption by collaborating with platforms like Meituan and Douyin to promote autumn and winter food consumption [4][5] - Special events such as the "Food in Dongguan" carnival and various food festivals will provide exclusive discounts for ticket holders [4][5] Cultural Tourism Sector - "Traveling Dongguan" will launch over 10 cultural tourism promotional activities centered around major events like the 15th National Games and APEC Summit [4][5] - The initiative includes creating special travel routes and offering discounts for attractions linked to events [4][5] Agricultural Sector - "Farming Dongguan" will host the "Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival" in November, showcasing agricultural achievements and promoting local products [5][14] - Additional events will include a Spring Festival flower market and various agricultural consumption activities [5][14] Cultural Sector - "Appreciating Dongguan" will enhance cultural consumption through events like the "Lingnan Water Town International Animation Week" and a New Year light festival [5][14] - The initiative will also promote local cultural products and extend the service hours of public cultural venues [5][14] Sports Sector - "Competing Dongguan" will leverage the atmosphere of the National Games to host high-level sports events and promote local sports brands [5][14] - The initiative aims to create diverse sports consumption scenarios by integrating sports with tourism and commerce [5][14] Support Mechanisms - A four-dimensional linkage mechanism has been established to ensure the effectiveness of the activities, involving collaboration between government, enterprises, financial institutions, and online platforms [6][13] - The initiative encourages local towns to develop unique promotional activities and integrates financial incentives to enhance consumer engagement [6][13] Consumer Incentives - Specific consumer subsidies include up to 5,000 yuan for new car purchases, 1,000 yuan for home appliances, and 500 yuan for electronics and sports goods [13][14] - The consumption season aims to provide tangible benefits to citizens while promoting economic growth and enhancing Dongguan's city image [14]

Core Viewpoint - Haikou's Xiuying District government has launched a special event titled "Hi Buy Xiuying Enjoy Duty-Free" to stimulate year-end consumer spending by distributing 500,000 yuan in duty-free consumption vouchers [1] Group 1: Event Details - The "Hi Buy Xiuying Enjoy Duty-Free" event is a collaboration between the Xiuying District government and China Duty Free Group, aiming to create a vibrant shopping experience for residents and tourists during the year-end shopping season [1] - The consumption vouchers will be exclusively distributed on Douyin's official platform and will feature multiple discount tiers [1] Group 2: Additional Incentives - During the event, offline consumers can enjoy additional payment incentives from banks such as Beijing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which include multiple points, cash back, and extra discounts [1] - The initiative aims to meet diverse consumer expectations for duty-free shopping through layered discounts and promotions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is launching a "Warm Winter Consumption Season" from November to March, integrating major events like the National Games and the Spring Festival to create a city-wide consumption festival [1][4]. Group 1: Event Structure - The consumption season will be divided into three phases: 1. **November to December**: "Vibrant Guangzhou - Dynamic Scene," leveraging the National Games to stimulate consumption through various events and discounts [6]. 2. **December to January**: "Tidal Wave Guangzhou - Fashion Circle," focusing on social consumption and fashion shopping with events like the Fashion Industry Conference and Guangzhou Design Week [6]. 3. **January to March**: "Flavors of Guangzhou - Flower Street," centered around traditional celebrations with enhanced consumption experiences and various festive activities [6]. Group 2: New Consumption Experiences - The initiative will offer a comprehensive experience combining "food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment," introducing new formats like "cruise + consumption" and themed events [5]. - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy at the Pazhou Passenger Port aims to enhance inbound tourism and consumption [7]. Group 3: Promotional Activities - Starting in November, Guangzhou will initiate promotional activities across various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and local specialties, with subsidies available [8][10]. - The city will also distribute dining vouchers and implement discounts for inbound consumers using foreign-issued UnionPay cards, with over 8,000 participating stores [8][9]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The city is collaborating with 11 districts and over 300 key commercial entities to host the Guangzhou International Shopping Festival, featuring more than 3,000 events and various promotional offers [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Government has launched the "Enjoy Warm Winter and Travel in Guangdong" consumption season, which will run from November 1, 2025, to the end of March 2026, aiming to boost local consumption and tourism [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The plan includes synchronized convenience measures at both provincial and municipal levels [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to implement promotional activities for ticket purchases related to the National Games [1] - Support for diverse payment methods, including mobile payments, bank cards, and cash, is emphasized [1] Group 2: Consumer Protection - The initiative aims to streamline consumer rights protection channels, ensuring the 12345 hotline is available 24/7 [1] - There will be a focus on online dispute resolution (ODR) for consumer complaints [1] - The program promotes commitments to safe consumption and offers a no-reason return policy for offline purchases [1] Group 3: Tourism and Service Quality - The plan encourages tourism associations to issue special initiatives for quality service [1] - There is a push for the establishment of foreign currency exchange facilities in key locations such as airports, ports, and star-rated hotels [1]