Core Viewpoint - Altria remains an attractive investment for income investors due to its long history of dividend increases and its current high dividend yield of 7% [1][14] Company Strategy - Altria has faced challenges over the past decade due to declining smoking rates and strategic missteps, including a $12 billion investment in Juul and a failed investment in Cronos Group [5] - The company has shifted focus to smoke-free products, selling the rights to market Iqos back to Philip Morris International and investing in Njoy, which has received FDA marketing authorization for its pod-based e-vapor product [6][8] - Altria's next-gen portfolio includes on!, an oral nicotine pouch, and a new heated tobacco product called Ploom, developed in partnership with JT Group [7] Market Performance - Njoy's consumables saw a 15.3% increase to 12.8 million units, and device shipments rose 22.2% to 1.1 million, with retail market share nearly doubling to 6.4% [8] - Despite Njoy's growth, cigarettes still account for the majority of Altria's revenue, with volume sales declining from 76.4 million in 2023 to 68.6 million in 2024, while smokeable products represented 88% of revenue in 2024 [9] Future Goals - Altria aims for a mid-single digits adjusted earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) off $4.84 in 2022, with adjusted EPS rising 3.4% to $5.12 in 2024, resulting in a 2.9% CAGR over the last two years [10] - The company plans to increase its dividend by mid-single digits annually, following a 4.1% increase in 2024, and targets a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2, currently at 2.1 [11] - Altria expects to maintain an adjusted operating margin of at least 60% through 2028, although it has struggled to meet growth targets and has adjusted its expectations for Njoy's cash flow contributions [12] Investment Outlook - Altria's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, with a 7% dividend yield, indicating potential for success even if not all 2028 goals are met [13] - In the current economic climate, Altria is positioned to potentially outperform the S&P 500, benefiting from its status in the consumer staples sector and the consistent demand for its products [14] - Overall, despite declining cigarette consumption, Altria is expected to be in a better position three years from now [15]

The fight for the US nicotine market is heating up. Incumbent MO has been stumbling on their non-combustible strategy, with little to show other than how not to transform a business. On the other end of the spectrum, Philip Morris, until recently out of theStriving to compound knowledge. Long-time fan of Warren and Charlie. Always invert. "To finish first, you must first finish". Investing own and family funds for +20 years. Senior finance roles at public and private corporations for most of that time.Analy ...

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is set to report its first-quarter 2025 earnings, with expectations of a slight revenue decline but earnings growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $4.6 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decline year-over-year [2]. - The earnings estimate has decreased by 2 cents to $1.17 per share, indicating a 1.7% growth from the same quarter last year [2]. - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 0.2%, but in the last quarter, it exceeded the consensus estimate by 1.6% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Altria, as it has an Earnings ESP of -2.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4]. Strategic Focus - Altria's strategic transformation towards smoke-free products is a key focus, with efforts to expand its portfolio of reduced-risk offerings like NJOY e-vapor products and on! nicotine pouches [5]. - The "Optimize & Accelerate" initiative aims to modernize operations and enhance progress towards a smoke-free vision [5]. Performance Influences - Strength in smoke-free products is expected to positively impact first-quarter performance, although significant investments in R&D and marketing may affect profitability [6]. - The Smokeable Products segment remains crucial, contributing 88.1% of total revenues in Q4 2024, but faces challenges from declining cigarette volumes due to macroeconomic factors [7]. Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.99, below the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 14.86, indicating attractive valuation for investors [8]. - Compared to competitors, Altria's valuation is lower than Philip Morris International (P/E of 22.74) and Turning Point Brands (P/E of 16.72), while British American Tobacco trades at a P/E of 9.23 [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria stock has returned 9.8%, underperforming the industry gain of 20.8% but outperforming the S&P 500's decline of 11% [11]. - Altria has shown relative strength compared to peers like Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco, but Philip Morris has outperformed with a 30.4% gain [11]. Investment Outlook - Altria's attractive valuation, defensive sector positioning, and stable performance make it a compelling choice for long-term investors in the tobacco sector [13].

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are attracted to stocks with above-average financial growth, but identifying such stocks can be challenging due to associated risks and volatility [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Philip Morris (PM) is highlighted as a recommended stock with a favorable Growth Score and a top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 4%, but projected EPS growth for this year is expected to be 10.7%, surpassing the industry average of 10.6% [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Earnings growth is crucial for attracting investor attention, with double-digit growth being particularly favorable [4] - Philip Morris has a year-over-year cash flow growth of 5.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.3% [6] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 5.9%, compared to the industry average of 4.6% [7] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - Positive trends in earnings estimate revisions correlate strongly with near-term stock price movements [8] - The current-year earnings estimates for Philip Morris have increased by 4.6% over the past month [9] Group 4: Investment Potential - Philip Morris has earned a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank 2 due to positive earnings estimate revisions, indicating potential for outperformance and suitability for growth investors [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company reported double-digit increases in organic net revenue, operating income, and adjusted diluted EPS in both constant currency and dollar terms [6][11][12] - Organic net revenue growth was plus 10.2%, reaching $9.3 billion, with volume growth of plus 3.9% [12][14] - Adjusted diluted EPS grew by plus 17.3% in constant currency and by plus 12.7% in dollar terms to $1.69, despite a $0.07 unfavorable currency variance [14][59] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smoke-free business saw shipment volumes increase by plus 14.4% year-on-year, with organic net revenue growth of plus 20% and organic gross profit growth of plus 33% [6][16] - IQOS delivered close to plus 10% HTU-adjusted IMS growth, with strong performance in Japan and Europe [7][11] - ZYN shipments increased by plus 53% to reach 202 million cans, exceeding initial expectations [8][43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international nicotine pouch can volumes grew by plus 53%, or plus 182% excluding the Nordics, indicating strong global demand [9][50] - In Europe, total shipments of IQOS advanced by plus 17.5% in Q1, with significant growth in markets like Spain, Germany, and Bulgaria [30][32] - The cigarette industry declined by 1.3% in Q1, with growth in markets where smoke-free products are not present, such as Turkey and India [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to deploy a multi-category strategy across markets, with smoke-free products now accounting for 44% of total gross profit [6][7] - The focus remains on expanding the smoke-free portfolio, with significant investments in brand building and product innovation [29][30] - The company aims to achieve double-digit growth for the rest of the year and has raised its shipment forecast for ZYN to 800 million to 840 million cans per year [12][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving another year of super growth despite uncertainties in the global economic outlook [11][59] - The company anticipates continued strong momentum from its smoke-free business and expects to mitigate potential supply chain challenges [57][65] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a progressive dividend policy while focusing on sustainable growth [65][66] Other Important Information - The company delivered over $180 million in gross cost savings in Q1, placing it on track to achieve a $2 billion target over 2024-2026 [27] - The company is committed to investing in U.S. manufacturing, with significant job creation expected as a result [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: ZYN out-of-stock issues and inventory rebuilding timeline - Management acknowledged ongoing out-of-stock issues and indicated that replenishment would occur gradually, with normalization expected by Q3 2025 [68][73] Question: Drivers of continued margin expansion - Management highlighted that smoke-free products are driving margin expansion, with a significant organic gross margin increase in Q1 [75][78] Question: Guidance outlook for the second half of the year - Management indicated that traditional differences between H1 and H2 could affect growth rates, but overall strong momentum is expected [85][89] Question: Unconstrained growth for ZYN - Management noted that while they cannot provide precise estimates for unconstrained demand, they expect consumer offtake to accelerate as supply constraints are lifted [100][102] Question: Net interest cost guidance for the year - Management did not provide specific guidance for net interest costs but indicated a positive start to the year [116][119]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations, leading to a nearly 3.5% increase in share price during pre-market trading [1][2] - The company raised its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance for 2025, reflecting positive momentum across various regions and product categories [1][11] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for the first quarter was $1.69, a 12.7% increase year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61 [2] - Net revenues reached $9,301 million, up 5.8% on a reported basis and 10.2% on an organic basis, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8,946.3 million [2] - The adjusted operating income rose 12.8% to $3,790 million, driven by improved pricing and positive volume/mix, despite increased costs in marketing and administration [5] Product Performance - Revenues from smoke-free products increased by 15% (20.4% organically), accounting for 42% of total revenues, with strong performance from IQOS and ZYN [4] - Shipment volumes for total products increased by 3.9% to 187.8 billion units in the first quarter [4] Regional Performance - European net revenues grew 3% (8.6% organically) to $3,560 million, supported by positive pricing and volume [7] - In the Americas, revenues surged 27.2% (32% organically) to $1,267 million, driven by favorable volume and pricing [8] Future Outlook - For 2025, adjusted EPS is projected to be in the range of $7.36-$7.49, indicating a growth of 12-14% [11] - The company expects net revenues to increase by 6-8% on an organic basis and operating income to rise by 10.5-12.5% [13] - Operating cash flow is anticipated to exceed $11 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures around $1.5 billion [13]

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Group 1 - Philip Morris reported quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.61 per share, and up from $1.50 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 4.97% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $9.3 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.97%, and an increase from $8.79 billion year-over-year [2] - Philip Morris has consistently outperformed consensus EPS and revenue estimates over the last four quarters [2] Group 2 - The stock has increased approximately 36.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with a -10.1% decline in the S&P 500 [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The trend for estimate revisions for Philip Morris is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] Group 3 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.81 on revenues of $10.04 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $7.23 on revenues of $40.6 billion [7] - The Tobacco industry is ranked in the top 21% of Zacks industries, suggesting a positive outlook for stocks within this sector [8]

Championing a Smoke-Free World 2025 First-Quarter Results April 23, 2025 Introduction • A glossary of terms as well as adjustments, other calculations and reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures for non-GAAP financial measures cited in this presentation are available in Exhibit 99.2 to the company's Form 8-K dated April 23, 2025 and on our Investor Relations website 2 Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements Excellent Q1 Marks Strong Start to 2025 (a) At prevailing exchange rates ...

Valuation and Performance - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.01, which is a 24% discount compared to the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 14.49 [1] - Over the past 12 months, Altria stock has returned 37.1%, significantly underperforming the industry average of 54.3% [3] - The stock's performance is notably weaker compared to competitors like Philip Morris International Inc. (65.8% return) and Turning Point Brands, Inc. (106.1% return) [3] Market Challenges - Altria faces a decline in cigarette consumption, with smoking rates at historic lows, leading to a shrinking core customer base [6] - The company’s traditional cigarette market share is under pressure due to falling shipment volumes, which declined by 8.8% in Q4 2024 [9] - Younger demographics are increasingly turning away from traditional cigarettes, favoring smoke-free alternatives, compounded by the rise of illicit e-vapor products [7][8] Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has tightened marketing restrictions, adding to Altria's challenges [8] - The e-vapor category grew by around 30% in 2024, with illegal products accounting for over 60% of total category sales, undermining Altria's market expansion efforts [11][12] - Altria's Smoke-Free Strategy is hindered by the rapid rise of illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products, complicating regulatory enforcement [10][12] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share has been revised downward over the past 30 days, indicating a bearish outlook among analysts [13] - Current estimates for earnings per share are 1.17 for the current quarter and 5.28 for the current year, reflecting a downward trend from previous estimates [13] Conclusion - The combination of declining cigarette volumes, regulatory hurdles, and the growing popularity of illicit e-vapor products presents a challenging outlook for Altria [14] - Until there is evidence of a successful transition to a more sustainable product mix, the stock's discount is likely to persist, leading to a cautious stance on new investments [14]