智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，澳门7月博彩收入为221亿澳门元，同比升19%，环比增5%， 创下疫情后的新高，并超出市场预期5%，恢复至2019年水平的90%。该行考虑到澳门博彩收入持续回 升，将澳门今年全年博彩收入预测上调4%至2420亿澳门元，意味着同比增长7%，并恢复至2019年水平 的83%。该行维持对澳门博彩行业的增持评级，继续首选银河娱乐(00027) ，维持目标价43港元及"买 入"评级。另外，该行予金沙中国(01928) "买入"评级，目标价22港元。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for MGM China is maintained as "Buy" with a target price raised from HKD 15.5 to HKD 19 [1][6]. Group 2: Core Insights - MGM China reported a net revenue of HKD 8.7 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8%, achieving the highest quarterly record in history, with a 72% increase compared to 2019 [1][6]. - The company's adjusted EBITDA reached HKD 2.5 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6, driven by an unexpected increase in market share, which reached 16.6% in Q2 [1][6]. - The strong performance in gaming revenue is attributed to high-end gaming and concert events, attracting more customers seeking new experiences and quality services [1][6]. - MGM China is focusing on high-end gaming strategies, with a positive outlook for the summer season, and the Alpha Villas in Macau began trial operations in July [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Section 1: MGM China Q2 2025 Performance - MGM China's Q2 2025 net revenue was HKD 8.7 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year and an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA at HKD 2.5 billion, marking a 3% year-on-year increase [1][6]. - The company achieved a market share of 16.6% in Q2, the highest increase among gaming companies, with a strong performance driven by high-end gaming and concert events [1][6]. Section 2: Market Outlook - The outlook for MGM China remains positive, with the summer season expected to maintain strong performance, and new villa suites set to open before the Golden Week in October [1][6]. Section 3: Education Sector Insights - China Oriental Education reported a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45-50%, corresponding to a profit total of HKD 400-420 million, exceeding expectations [2][9]. - The vocational training sector is expected to see continued growth due to an increase in the number of high school graduates and a rise in the number of students seeking vocational training [2][9]. - The company is focusing on developing new programs tailored to high school graduates, with an expected enrollment increase of approximately 81% in the new 15-month training programs [3][10]. Section 4: Operational Efficiency - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency by optimizing marketing expenditures and improving school capacity utilization, with an expected increase in capacity utilization from 72.7% to 75.3% [4][11]. - The marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease from 23.7% to 22.1%, contributing to an anticipated profit margin expansion of approximately 3.7% to 16.4% in FY 2025 [4][11].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 25,735 points, with limited corporate profit improvement and a lack of strong economic stimulus from mainland China [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market indicates a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - Recent US-China trade negotiations have led to an extension of the tariff truce, easing trade tensions [2] Macro Focus - The People's Bank of China continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to support local government financing platforms [4][8] - In October, the fourth batch of 69 billion RMB for old-for-new funding will be allocated, contributing to a total of 300 billion RMB for the year [8] - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed an unexpected increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to a revision of previous months' data [4][9] Sector Highlights - High dividend stocks are favored as market conditions stabilize and interest rate cut expectations rise [7] - Construction materials stocks are expected to benefit from the commencement of large hydropower projects in Tibet and strengthened supply-side reforms [7] Company News - Xinyi Solar reported a 58.8% decrease in interim profits to 750 million RMB, cutting its interim dividend by 58% [4] - Leung's Group anticipates a net loss of up to 100 million RMB for the interim period, narrowing by at least 63% year-on-year [4] - China Resources Medical expects a 20-25% drop in net profit for the first half of the year [4] - Meituan, Alibaba's Taobao, and JD.com have jointly called for a halt to disorderly competition in the food delivery sector [8][10] - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units in July, marking a 20% increase from June [10] - Geely's July sales grew by 58%, with total sales for the first seven months increasing by 49% [10] - Ideal Auto delivered over 30,000 new vehicles in July, with a cumulative delivery of over 1.36 million vehicles [10] - Zero Run delivered 50,129 vehicles in July, achieving a record high despite the traditional sales slump [10]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) for July reached MOP 22.125 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 19%, and is recovering to 90% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, exceeding both Citigroup's and market expectations of MOP 21 billion by 5% [1] Group 1 - Macau's average daily gaming revenue for July was approximately MOP 714 million, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding expectations [1] - The gaming revenue has shown a consistent year-on-year growth of nearly 20% for two consecutive months, reflecting the industry's strong resilience [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to August, the upcoming concert by singer Eason Chan at the Galaxy Arena is expected to positively impact revenue, prompting Citigroup to revise its August gaming revenue forecast from MOP 20 billion to MOP 21.5 billion, which represents a year-on-year growth of 9% [1] - The average daily revenue for August is projected to be MOP 694 million, taking into account potentially lower per capita spending by tourists during the traditional peak travel season and the high base from the same period last year [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Haier Smart Home, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the earnings season in Europe and America is causing market volatility, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding tariffs from the Trump administration [4][6]. - The performance of various sectors shows that gambling, overseas cosmetics, and pet products are outperforming the MSCI China index, while sectors like luxury goods and overseas sportswear are experiencing significant declines [4][12]. Sector Performance Overview - Weekly performance: Gambling > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Gold and Jewelry > Snacks > Domestic Cosmetics > Domestic Sportswear > Credit Cards > US Hotels > Daily Necessities > Luxury Goods > Overseas Sportswear, with respective weekly changes of 0.6%, -0.6%, -1.6%, -2.2%, -2.2%, -2.5%, -2.7%, -4.5%, -5.5%, -6.6%, -7.6%, and -9.0% [5][15]. - Monthly performance: Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > Domestic Cosmetics > Credit Cards > Luxury Goods > Overseas Cosmetics > US Hotels > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Gold and Jewelry > Overseas Sportswear > Pets, with respective monthly changes of 4.3%, -0.3%, -3.1%, -4.2%, -4.5%, -5.1%, -5.7%, -8.1%, -8.4%, -11.7%, -12.4%, and -14.4% [12][15]. - Year-to-date performance: Gold and Jewelry > Domestic Cosmetics > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Credit Cards > Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > US Hotels > Overseas Sportswear > Luxury Goods, with respective year-to-date changes of 142.3%, 49.4%, 35.6%, 34.8%, 20.9%, 20.7%, 7.4%, 3.3%, 2.4%, -1.5%, -11.0%, and -13.7% [12][15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that most sectors are still undervalued compared to their average valuations over the past five years, with expected PE ratios for 2025 as follows: - Overseas Sportswear: 31.7x (51% of 5-year average) - Domestic Sportswear: 12.8x (74% of 5-year average) - Gold and Jewelry: 24.7x (43% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.3x (41% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 17.4x (26% of 5-year average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 39.7x (62% of 5-year average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 30.9x (58% of 5-year average) - Pets: 41.7x (45% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 22.4x (37% of 5-year average) - Daily Necessities: 23.3x (71% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.9x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 29.7x (59% of 5-year average) [10][19].

Core Viewpoint - Jeju Island has become a popular destination for workers from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai due to its convenient flights, low prices, and proximity, transforming it into a "happy home" for these travelers [5][10][19]. Group 1: Flight Availability - There are 35 direct flights from China to Jeju Island, with 370 weekly round trips covering 14 Chinese cities, including 142 weekly flights from Shanghai alone [10][12]. - Spring Airlines operates the most flights, with 118 round trips weekly, making it a key player in facilitating travel for Jiangsu and Zhejiang workers [10][12]. Group 2: Pricing - The cost of flights to Jeju Island is significantly lower compared to domestic travel, with round-trip tickets from Shanghai typically ranging from 500 to 800 RMB, and as low as 300 RMB during promotions [14][17]. - A notable example includes a traveler who managed to secure a round-trip ticket for 1,100 RMB during the National Day holiday, showcasing the affordability of travel to Jeju [14][17]. Group 3: Proximity - The flight duration from Shanghai to Jeju Island is approximately 2 hours, making it a more time-efficient option compared to traveling to local airports during peak traffic [17]. - The convenience of quick access to Jeju Island has led to a surge in weekend getaways for Jiangsu and Zhejiang workers, effectively integrating the island into their travel routines [17][19]. Group 4: Government Policies - The South Korean government is considering extending visa-free policies for Chinese tourists, which could further boost travel to Jeju Island and enhance its appeal as a destination for Jiangsu and Zhejiang workers [19][21]. - The aim is to attract 5.36 million Chinese tourists by 2025, indicating the importance of this demographic for South Korea's economic recovery post-pandemic [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported better-than-expected performance for Q2 2025, with net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.511 billion, up 3% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 172% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of HKD 2.387 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue market share increased to 16.5% in Q2 2025, up from 15.6% in Q1 2025 [1] Business Development Trends - Management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance during the summer [1] - The strong market share in July 2025 was attributed to the soft opening of the Alpha Villas targeting ultra-high-end customers, with a full opening expected before the Golden Week in October 2025 [1] - The company aims to maintain its current market share while focusing on product updates and strong performance in high-end mass market operations [1] Market Share and Visitor Trends - Total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in Q2 2025, with monthly growth in market share throughout the quarter, peaking at approximately 17% in June 2025, driven by visitor volume and high-end customer engagement [1] - All 28 villa rooms at MGM Macau opened in Q2 2025, and the company plans to maintain a dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion, respectively, due to the opening of villa products [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with an 18% target price increase to HKD 19.80, reflecting a 27% upside potential based on a 9 times 2025 EV/EBITDA valuation [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its outperform rating for Melco International Development (00200) and raises the target price by 14% to HKD 5.80, indicating a 7% upside potential based on the current discount level corresponding to a 20% net asset discount rate [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results with net revenue of USD 1.328 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 91% of Q2 2019 levels [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Q2 2025 was USD 378 million, up 25% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 84% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding the consensus estimate of USD 347 million [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that the strong trend from June 2025 continued into July 2025, with expectations for this trend to persist into Q3 2025, benefiting from record visitor numbers at Macau properties and sustained performance from high-end gaming [3] - The company plans to close the Dragon Palace Casino and three Mocha slot machine clubs by the end of 2025, with an impairment loss of approximately USD 56 million recognized in Q2 2025 [3] - Management is optimistic about the benefits from the closure of competing satellite casinos and is focused on enhancing product offerings to retain customers [3] Group 3: Non-Gaming Revenue and New Developments - The "The House of Dancing Water" show has positively impacted non-gaming revenue by attracting visitors to City of Dreams Macau, with efforts to convert visitor traffic into gaming revenue [4] - Despite the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on City of Dreams Cyprus, summer hotel bookings have significantly increased [4] - City of Dreams Sri Lanka is set to open on August 1, 2025, targeting Indian customers, with expectations for a longer ramp-up period due to its status as the first resort of its kind in South Asia [4] - City of Dreams Manila's performance remained stable in July 2025, and Melco Resorts repurchased approximately USD 120 million worth of shares at around USD 5 per ADS in April and May 2025 [4]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou (01024.HK), highlighting the company's growth in platform ecology and commercialization, with future profit margins expected to optimize [1] - Huachuang Securities maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Li Auto (02015.HK), noting the company's strong competitiveness in the vehicle market and rapid AI transformation, with revised sales and revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK), indicating a recovery in sales and pricing in the Chinese market, while adjusting revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan maintains an "Overweight" rating for UBTECH (09880.HK), projecting a compound annual growth rate of 260% for its humanoid robot business from 2025 to 2027, with significant contributions to revenue [2] - Tianfeng Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong and China Gas (01083.HK), emphasizing its leading position in smart energy and strong profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2] Group 3 - Guohai Securities maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold (06181.HK), forecasting significant growth in sales and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by brand influence and product optimization [3] Group 4 - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for MGM China (02282.HK), reporting strong performance in Q2 2025, with expectations for continued market share growth and product updates [4] - CICC maintains a "Hold" rating for Prada (01913.HK), anticipating above-industry revenue growth despite uncertainties related to the Versace integration [4] Group 5 - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental (09901.HK), reporting record revenue and profit in Q4 FY25, with a projected growth rate of 5%-10% for FY2026 [5] - CICC maintains an "Outperform" rating for Standard Chartered (02888.HK), noting better-than-expected Q2 2025 performance driven by non-interest income growth [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in the Hang Seng Index by 403 points, marking a 1.6% drop, with the index closing at 24,773 points. The technology index also fell for six consecutive days [3][4] - The report highlights that Hong Kong's GDP for Q2 is estimated to grow by 3.1%, surpassing market expectations of 2.8%, supported by strong export performance and improved local demand [7] - Retail sales in Hong Kong showed a modest increase of 0.7% in June, but the overall retail environment remains weak, with significant declines in certain sectors like furniture [8] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and fell below the 25,000 mark, with a maximum drop of 432 points during the trading session [3] - The total trading volume for the day was 32.06 billion HKD, with net inflows from northbound trading reaching 13.13 billion HKD [3] - The report notes that the Hang Seng Index has seen a total increase of 701 points or 2.9% in July, marking three consecutive months of gains [4] Economic Indicators - The report states that private consumption expenditure in Q2 rose by 1.9% year-on-year, while government consumption expenditure increased by 2.5% [7] - Merchandise exports grew by 11.5%, and imports rose by 12.7%, indicating robust external demand [7] - The report mentions a significant drop in Hong Kong dollar deposits by 0.9% in June, while foreign currency deposits increased by 2.4% [9] Company News - China Ruiyi announced a placement of 1.3 billion new shares at a discount of approximately 4.5%, raising about 3.9 billion HKD for strategic investments and operational expenses [11] - XPeng Motors reported a record delivery of approximately 36,700 smart electric vehicles in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.3 times [12] - Melco Resorts reported a 20% decline in net income for Q2, despite an overall increase in operational revenue by 14.54% [13]