Group 1 - The report emphasizes the strong underlying drivers of the current bull market, including liquidity support, policy backing for capital markets, moderate fundamental recovery, and continuous industry catalysts, despite short-term overseas disturbances [1][9][10] - The report highlights the significant inflow into the A500 ETF, which accounted for 92.2% of the total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese market [10][14] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB reflects a recovery in international capital confidence towards China, supported by a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements [18][19][21] Group 2 - The report identifies the small-cap index, CSI 2000, as an "invisible champion," outperforming the large-cap index during the recent market rally, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and moderate fundamental recovery [2][25] - The report suggests that the current bull market is characterized by a unique valuation expansion, where small-cap stocks face less resistance compared to large-cap stocks, potentially breaking the historical underperformance of small caps at year-end [2][25] - The report anticipates strong elasticity in small-cap stocks under conditions of risk appetite and liquidity support, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting that both can thrive simultaneously, driven by a global tech cycle and supportive policies [3][28] - It highlights the importance of monitoring the marginal change in profit growth (ΔG) for AI hardware, indicating that as long as ΔG remains stable, the sector is likely to continue benefiting from the ongoing valuation bull market [38] - The report notes that AI applications are transitioning from being a supporting role to becoming the core narrative of the tech sector, driven by policy support, demand release, and a mature industry ecosystem [49][50]

Group 1: Food Delivery Industry - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee is investigating the competitive landscape of the food delivery service industry, highlighting issues such as subsidy wars, price competition, and traffic control, while emphasizing opposition to "involution-style" competition [2] - Major platforms like Meituan, Taobao Flash, and JD responded collectively, asserting their commitment to maintaining fair and orderly competition in the industry [2] - Experts believe that regulatory investigations will clarify competitive boundaries and behavioral bottom lines, pushing platforms to shift from price competition to efficiency, service, and innovation [2] Group 2: E-commerce and Support Policies - Douyin E-commerce announced an upgraded support plan for merchants, focusing on cost, traffic, conversion, fulfillment, technology, and governance, aiming to enhance long-term operational certainty for merchants [4] - The nine support policies were initially launched in early 2025, and over the past year, Douyin has saved merchants over 32 billion yuan through various initiatives [4] Group 3: Autonomous Driving and Technology - Baidu's "Roborock" received the first full unmanned testing license in Dubai, marking a significant step towards commercial operations planned for Q1 2026, with plans to expand the fleet to over 1,000 vehicles [8] - The establishment of an integrated operation base in Dubai will support the scale of unmanned vehicle operations, indicating China's deep involvement in global transportation ecosystem restructuring [8] Group 4: Battery Technology - Donut Lab introduced what it claims to be the world's first mass-producible all-solid-state battery, featuring an energy density of 400 Wh/kg and rapid charging capabilities [9] - The battery is designed to withstand extreme temperatures and has a minimal capacity degradation after 100,000 charge cycles, with no flammable liquid electrolytes [9][10] Group 5: Air Conditioning Industry - Gree Electric Appliances announced that it will not raise air conditioner prices and has no plans to replace copper with aluminum in its products, despite rising copper prices [11] - The transition to aluminum in air conditioning systems faces technical verification and standardization challenges, with Gree emphasizing that aluminum has not yet reached the same technical reliability as copper [11]

Group 1: Healthcare Payment System - The National Healthcare Security Administration aims to establish a convenient payment system for medical insurance within approximately three years, focusing on reducing long queues and payment difficulties for patients [1] - The initial rollout will include at least two cities from each province, with a target for effective implementation in designated medical institutions by 2026 [1] - By 2027, the plan is to achieve provincial coverage, and by 2028, to fully implement the system in all eligible medical institutions within the province [1] Group 2: Law Enforcement and Crime Reduction - In 2025, the national police reported a 12.8% decrease in criminal cases, reaching a record low for the century, with significant reductions in violent crime and traditional theft cases [4] - The police also reported a 3.5% decrease in public security cases, with no major traffic accidents recorded for the first time since 1990 [4] - A total of 210 police officers and 142 auxiliary police officers sacrificed their lives in the line of duty during the year [4] Group 3: Export Control and Trade - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control measures on dual-use items to Japan will not affect civilian uses, emphasizing the country's commitment to maintaining global supply chain stability [5] - The measures aim to prevent the militarization and nuclear ambitions of Japan, which are deemed legitimate and lawful [5] Group 4: Battery Industry Regulation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate the competitive order in the power and energy storage battery industry due to rapid development and irrational competition [6] - The focus will be on enhancing market supervision, enforcing price regulations, and preventing overcapacity risks [6] - The initiative aims to promote fair competition and sustainable development within the industry [6] Group 5: Mineral Resource Exploration - The China Geological Survey announced significant breakthroughs in chromium ore and unconventional oil and gas exploration, with the discovery of 20 new mineral bodies in Xinjiang [6] - The average grade of the newly discovered chromium ore is 30.73%, addressing the strategic mineral shortage in the country [6] - Additionally, a new shale gas resource of 1329.5 billion cubic meters was identified in the western Hubei region, expanding the exploration efforts beyond the Sichuan Basin [6] Group 6: Railway Transportation - In 2025, the national railway system achieved a passenger volume of 4.588 billion, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and a freight volume of 527.3 million tons, up 2.0% [7] - The railway network expanded to 165,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail exceeding 50,000 kilometers, maintaining a leading position globally in various transport metrics [7] - The modernization of railway infrastructure is seen as a key support for high-quality economic and social development [7] Group 7: Carbon Capture Standards - The National Market Supervision Administration approved 12 national standards for carbon capture, utilization, and storage, set to take effect on July 1, 2026 [8] - These standards will unify key processes and evaluation methods, promoting innovation and application in the carbon capture industry [8] - The implementation of these standards is expected to contribute to deep carbon reduction and high-quality development in the economy [8]

摘要 高压平台 + 超快充电池已成高端 SUV 标配。 2026 年工信部新车第一弹来袭。 据第 403 批《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品公告》，开年共有 82 款新车公示，纯电车型 49 款，混动 / 增程共 33 款。其中，比亚迪系新车公示 最多，共 32 款，弗迪电池配套车型包括王朝、海洋系列，以及方程豹、领汇、腾势品牌。 宁德时代紧跟弗迪其后，拿下 28 款新车配套，三元车型共 16 款， LFP 车型 11 款，" LFP+ 三元"电池 1 款，该电池上车零跑 SUV D19 。 从零跑的官方宣传来看， D19 部分车型搭载了宁德时代 115KWh 超混电芯，能量密度提升了 18.5% ，率先满足 2026 年最新电池国标。 值得一提的是，宁德时代此前已提出 AB 电池概念，可实现" LFP+ 三元"以及" LFP+ 钠电"等组合。而最新双核电池的概念在其去年首个科技日上 着重强调，成为行业焦点。 事实上，宁德时代双核电池可视为 AB 电池的加强版。 具体来看，宁德时代"双核架构"的其中一个矩阵为，骁遥 " 三元铁/ 双三元 " 双核电池（三元+铁锂/ 三元自生成负极电池），输出功率大于 1000kW ...

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery supply chain faces significant challenges in achieving mass production by 2027, with key materials still in the experimental stage and core equipment shortages hindering progress [1][5]. Material Aspects - The solid-state battery's core materials are divided into three categories: cathode, anode, and electrolyte, with the anode materials currently following two main technical routes: silicon-carbon and lithium metal [11][12]. - Sulfide solid electrolytes are gaining traction, with a current output of approximately 20 tons in 2025, and the price per ton reaching several million yuan [3][4]. - The competition between oxide and sulfide electrolytes is a focal point, with oxide electrolytes being easier to mass-produce but having lower ionic conductivity compared to sulfide electrolytes [12][14]. Industry Trends - Investment interest in solid-state batteries is returning, driven by orders from cell manufacturers and the potential for profitability within the supply chain [2][3]. - The industry is targeting 2027 as a pivotal year for mass production, with many companies aiming to complete product development or testing by 2026 [4][5]. Equipment Challenges - The lack of mature mass production equipment is a significant barrier, with some materials still requiring production in vacuum glove boxes, limiting scalability [16][20]. - The solid-state battery production line requires high-precision equipment and a clean environment, which increases costs and complicates the manufacturing process [19][20]. Technical Uncertainties - The uncertainty in technical routes complicates equipment adaptation, as different companies have varying core technologies, making it difficult to establish standardized production systems [20][22]. - The rapid pace of technological iteration and the absence of economies of scale further exacerbate cost pressures in the solid-state battery sector [22][24]. Talent and Collaboration - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a talent shortage, with many skilled professionals concentrated in supplier roles, leading to higher salaries compared to the liquid battery sector [25][26]. - Companies are increasingly collaborating with industry leaders to provide comprehensive solutions, including material supply and technical guidance [26].

在以新质生产力为核心的新一轮周期中，固态电池方向兼具足够大的主题市值容 量、催化密度高、产业从 0→1 向 1→N 的关键拐点等三大特征，有望成为具有持续性和风险收益比的中长期主线之一。展望未来，固态 电池在 2026–2027 年有望集中迎来车规级装车试验、小规模量产、GWh 级产线招标、工信部补贴中期验收等 多重共振催化。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 从技术成熟度 TRL 和制造成熟度 MRL 评估，全固态电池将进入初步成熟期，即从 5~6 跨越到 7~8 的阶段。 全固态电池的科学问题基本已经解决，行业进入了中试线到量产线的阶段。技术成熟度 TRL 跨越的关键在于 工艺路线收敛、良率优化与降本，卡位和验证领先的厂商有望在未来占据更高份额。制造成熟度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced changes to the export tax refund policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which will impact the industry starting from April 1, 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Export Tax Refund Changes**: From April 1, 2026, the export tax refund for photovoltaic products will be canceled. For battery products, the export tax refund rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - **Consumption Tax Policy**: The announcement specifies that the consumption tax policies for the products listed will remain unchanged, continuing to apply the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy for products subject to consumption tax [1]. - **Export Date Definition**: The applicable export refund rates for the products will be determined based on the export date indicated on the customs declaration [1].

Core Viewpoint - The battery industry is experiencing a significant price increase in core raw materials, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has surged from 49,300 yuan per ton in July 2025 to around 170,000 yuan per ton recently, prompting companies to raise battery prices by 15% [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase and Market Dynamics - The rapid price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has caught the industry off guard, driven by unexpected demand in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors, particularly in overseas markets [2]. - Global energy storage market is expanding rapidly, with expected shipments of over 650 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 80%, while China's energy storage system shipments are projected to exceed 320 GWh, growing by 88% [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which constitutes 40%-50% of the cost of electrolytes, has significantly impacted downstream battery prices, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Industry Response - The policy changes in February 2025 aimed at promoting high-quality development in new energy have triggered a surge in new energy storage installations, with a monthly increase of over 460% in May 2025 [3]. - Despite the demand surge, the supply side remains cautious due to high production thresholds and previous losses in the raw materials sector, leading to a consensus against blind expansion [3]. Group 3: Technological and Strategic Shifts - The current price surge is seen as a catalyst for structural optimization in battery technology, shifting the focus from quantity to quality, as companies aim to enhance energy density and cycle life [4][5]. - Leading companies are now prioritizing advanced production lines for high-density, long-life lithium iron phosphate products and larger capacity energy storage cells [4]. - The industry is transitioning from price competition to value competition, emphasizing long-term economic viability, safety, and reliability over initial pricing [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Global Strategy - Companies are extending upstream to secure key resources, with strategic partnerships being formed to create stable and resilient supply chains [7]. - The industry is advised to enhance its bargaining power over upstream mineral resources and adopt diversified procurement strategies to stabilize supply [7]. - Globalization is becoming crucial for absorbing advanced production capacity and improving profitability, with a shift in competition from cost and scale advantages to compliance, brand, and service systems [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The next 3-5 years are expected to see a mainstream evolution of battery technologies, with material price fluctuations acting as a catalyst for a more resilient development model in the battery industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have surged, closing at 143,420 yuan per ton on January 9, 2026, marking a 120% increase from the low of 59,900 yuan per ton in June 2025, and reaching a new high since November 2023, becoming a significant price anchor in the new energy industry chain [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for lithium has skyrocketed, with new energy vehicle sales increasing over 30% year-on-year and battery installation volumes rising over 40%. The energy storage market has also seen a doubling in domestic project bidding and a surge in overseas orders, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and short-term supply tightness [4] - The Chinese government has restricted the approval of new mining projects without self-built mines and tailings disposal facilities, impacting key expansion projects like Ganfeng Lithium's Cauchari-Olaroz and Tianqi Lithium's Sichuan expansion, which are currently ramping up production [4][6] Cost Pressures and Market Reactions - The solid waste management action plan released by the State Council has added to industry cost pressures, potentially increasing operational costs for companies. A recent meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aimed to curb irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, further altering market expectations regarding overcapacity and driving lithium prices up [6] - Major battery companies are responding to rising raw material prices by increasing product prices, with some companies like Suzhou Dejia Energy announcing a 15% price hike. A shift towards long-term agreements in the supply chain is evident, with leading firms locking in costs through dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to market indices [7] Industry Restructuring - The deep binding agreements between leading battery companies and suppliers are excluding smaller players from the core supply chain, indicating a new round of industry consolidation. The market share of the top ten battery companies is expected to rise from 65% to 75% by 2025, with smaller firms facing accelerated exit from the market [8][10] - Recent acquisitions in the lithium resource sector, such as Salt Lake Co.'s acquisition of a controlling stake in China Salt Lake and Shengxin Lithium Energy's purchase of a stake in Qicheng Mining, highlight the increasing value of lithium resources [10] Technological Shifts - High lithium prices are catalyzing a shift towards alternative battery technologies, such as sodium batteries, which are gaining traction in mid-to-low-end energy storage and light-duty applications due to their cost advantages and stable material supply [11][13] - Investment in sodium battery projects has surged, with a total investment of approximately 61.5 billion yuan across 28 announced projects, indicating a significant shift in focus within the battery industry [13] - Solid-state battery technology, while initially seen as a potential solution to reduce lithium dependency, is showing increased lithium usage compared to lithium iron phosphate batteries, with projections for large-scale production expected around 2030 [14][16] Conclusion - The lithium carbonate price surge is not merely a short-term speculative trend but reflects a systemic revaluation based on real supply-demand dynamics, cost structures, and industry power shifts. Companies with resource advantages, technological depth, and cost discipline are transitioning from price takers to rule makers in this evolving landscape [10][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming changes in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which are expected to impact the industry by promoting healthier competition and reducing low-quality practices [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Tax Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the export VAT refund for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and the VAT refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, with a complete cancellation set for January 1, 2027 [1]. - The announcement includes a list of specific products affected, with photovoltaic products comprising 249 items and battery products including 22 items [2]. Industry Implications - The cancellation of VAT refunds for photovoltaic products is seen as a measure to combat "involution" in the industry, helping to phase out outdated production capacities and break the cycle of low pricing, thereby fostering healthy development within the supply chain [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has noted issues of low-quality competition and repetitive construction in the photovoltaic sector, which have led to profitability challenges for companies and hindered investment in technological innovation [2]. Product Listings - The article provides detailed listings of products affected by the new tax policies, including items such as monocrystalline silicon wafers, spherical graphite, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various types of carbon fiber products [3][4].