Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the stability of the phosphate rock market and the significant price difference between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers, indicating a positive outlook for integrated phosphate chemical companies in terms of profitability and dividend increases [3] - The report emphasizes the supply-side disturbances in glyphosate, with current product prices and profit margins under pressure due to historical lows. It suggests that overseas supply disruptions combined with domestic industry adjustments could improve competitive dynamics and enhance the bargaining power of leading companies [5][24] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.7% this week, with 63.9% of chemical stocks showing weekly gains [10][18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 3.78% to 4175 points as of May 15 [21] Key Product Tracking - The report notes a decrease in inventory days for polyester filament, with prices for POY, FDY, and DTY rising significantly [34][35] - Domestic urea prices have also increased, driven by export policy expectations [34] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies such as Xingfa Group, Yangnong Chemical, and Hebang Biotechnology in the glyphosate sector [5][24] - Beneficiary stocks include Jiangshan Co., New安股份, and Guangxin Co. [5][24] Glyphosate Supply and Pricing - Global glyphosate production capacity is 1.18 million tons per year, with China accounting for 68.6% of this capacity. Major domestic producers include Xingfa Group, Fuhua Chemical, and Xin'an Co. [26][30] - Glyphosate prices have been declining, with current prices and price differentials at historically low levels [30][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea spot price will move in the direction of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the urea futures price is expected to fluctuate around the spot price. The consensus on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the urea industry chain has laid a solid foundation for the stability of domestic urea spot prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Plots show the price trends of urea in regions like Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 - 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Illustrates the FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factory for small - particle urea and the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong factory from 2021 - 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Price and Spread**: Displays the price of nitrogen in synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spread between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 - 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Presents the price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Shows the price of the urea 09 - contract futures, the basis of the 09 - contract, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 - 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Output**: Shows the weekly average daily output, cumulative output since the beginning of the year, weekly average daily output of natural - gas - based and coal - based urea from 2021 - 2025. From May 8 - 14 to May 29 - June 4, 2025, the weekly average daily output increased from 19.92 to 20.43 million tons [25][26]. - **Coal Price and Urea Profit**: Displays the price trends of anthracite and bituminous coal, as well as the profits of Shanxi fixed - bed and Henan new - process urea production from 2021 - 2025 [28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, daily average apparent consumption from the enterprise perspective, order volume, and domestic daily average apparent consumption of urea from 2021 - 2025. As of a certain period, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 81.72 million tons, a decrease of 24.84 million tons (- 23.31%) [31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Shows the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate, inventory, import, export, and net export volume from 2021 - 2025. The domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate rebounded slightly to 40.26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: Displays the weekly output, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate, as well as the operating rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of domestic potassium fertilizer from 2021 - 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: Presents the weekly output, price, melamine/urea price ratio, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: Shows the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 - 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory - **Enterprise and Port Inventory**: Illustrates the enterprise inventory, port inventory, total enterprise + port inventory, and the number of urea warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025 [49][50].

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-05-19 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 01 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 02 甲醇：下游需求承接有限 高位回落 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 01 1 市场变化：尿素价格延续震荡运行，盘面价格重心小幅下移，5月16日尿素2509合约收盘价1892元/吨，较上周收 盘基本持平。尿素现货价格坚挺，河南市场日均价1907元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，山东市场日均价1946元/吨， 较上周上调76元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率87.5%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.74%，较上周上调 5.45个百分点，尿素日均产量19.92万吨。新疆新冀能源150万吨/年装置试车成功，日产1560吨小颗粒尿素和 1098吨大颗粒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of green ammonia and green methanol is essential for addressing high carbon emissions in traditional industries like energy and petrochemicals, as well as for meeting domestic and international low-carbon transition pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context - China's synthetic ammonia and methanol production contributes approximately 220 million tons of carbon emissions, accounting for 50% of the chemical industry's total emissions, making it a key area for reduction efforts [2]. - The EU's "Fit for 55" package and the upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will impose significant export pressures on industries, including fertilizers and hydrogen, highlighting the urgency for green ammonia and methanol development [2]. Group 2: Current Challenges - The green ammonia and methanol industry in China is still in the market cultivation stage, facing challenges in technology, market readiness, and economic viability [4]. - The production processes, including electrolysis and biomass routes, have technical limitations, such as unstable renewable energy resources and high costs associated with hydrogen storage and transportation [4]. - Economic feasibility remains a concern, as the cost of hydrogen production via electrolysis is currently 2 to 3 times higher than coal-based methods unless electricity prices drop significantly [4]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The decline in costs for solar panels and smart technology is expected to lower the price of renewable energy, with wind and solar electricity costs currently around 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per kilowatt-hour [6]. - The industry is encouraged to explore new technological pathways and collaborate with local renewable energy enterprises to secure cheaper electricity [7]. - The government is advised to maintain a rational approach in project approvals, allowing for pilot projects in specific regions to prevent investment waste [7]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Industry players should accelerate the operationalization of existing green ammonia and methanol projects while avoiding superficial promotion without substantial construction [7]. - Continuous improvement of standards for green ammonia and methanol is necessary, with existing standards already published by the China Fertilizer Association [7].

| | | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 尿素：高位震荡 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,892 | -15 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,877 | 1,894 | -17 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 186,596 | 413,756 | -227160 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 239,683 | 245,094 | -5411 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,355 | 7,352 | 3 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,580 | 1,566,907 | -866327 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 5 3 | 5 8 | - 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for deeper cooperation between China and the EU in light of the uncertain international political and economic landscape, particularly focusing on fair trade rules and maximizing the benefits of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for sustainable development [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Potential Impact of EU CBAM - The EU's CBAM may lead to increased costs for certain member states, with significant disparities in impact, particularly affecting countries like Bulgaria, Ireland, and Greece that rely heavily on imports from non-EU countries [2]. - For China, the short-term effects of CBAM are limited, but the long-term implications are substantial, as the mechanism initially targets industries like steel and aluminum, which are significant in China's exports to the EU [2]. Opportunities and Challenges in China-EU Economic Cooperation - China and the EU share a consistent stance on climate action, which can be leveraged to enhance cooperation in clean energy projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on nuclear, wind, and solar energy [3]. - The challenges posed by CBAM include its role as a tool for achieving climate goals, which may restrict trade flexibility and highlight differences in resource endowments and development stages between China and the EU [4]. Development Directions for China-EU Economic Cooperation - Strengthening policy dialogue and coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms is essential to reduce friction caused by climate policies, with suggestions for regular discussions on carbon pricing and CBAM implementation details [7]. - Improving the carbon emission accounting system to enhance data credibility and accuracy is crucial, with proposals for unified standards and data sharing to mitigate uncertainties in CBAM implementation [8]. - Exploring mechanisms for redistributing CBAM revenues to support low-carbon transitions in developing countries can help alleviate the impact of CBAM on global trade dynamics [9]. - Promoting green technology cooperation is vital, leveraging China's strengths in clean energy and the EU's comprehensive green governance framework to enhance low-carbon industrial development [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, with a recommendation for a defensive investment strategy due to ongoing market uncertainties [2][25]. Core Insights - The chemical market has seen an increase due to unexpected tariff reductions, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 1.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.7% [2][10]. - The report highlights strong performance in military and robotics sectors, as well as stocks benefiting from tariff reductions [2]. - The easing of tariffs between China and the US, with a cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs, is expected to lead to a recovery in previously depressed export chains [2][3]. - Oil prices are projected to stabilize within a range, influenced by geopolitical factors and demand dynamics [2]. - The AI sector is showing significant growth, with major companies reporting substantial contributions from AI capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Brent crude oil futures average price was $65.52 per barrel, up 5.6% from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged $62.58 per barrel, an increase of 5.98% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector underperformed [10]. - The top three performing sub-industries were viscose (8.72%), polyester (8.63%), and coatings (6.3%) [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is recovering with increased operating rates and demand, while raw material prices are rising [25]. - The sweetener market, particularly sucralose, is showing signs of improvement with stable pricing and reduced supply [26]. - The dye market remains stable, with steady pricing and normal production levels [27]. - The DMC market is experiencing upward price movement due to improved downstream demand [27]. Key Industry Information - The titanium dioxide market is under pressure due to weak demand and reduced production rates [28]. - The vitamin E market is facing downward price pressure, with significant fluctuations in pricing reported [29]. - The coal chemical sector is stabilizing, with coal prices under pressure but showing signs of bottoming out [38][39].

"粮食的粮食"价格高位波动 进入旺季，尿素市场新一轮涨价行情启动。 5月以来，尿素期现价格持续上涨，刷新近半年新高，截至5月16日收盘，主力合约价格逐步回落至1877元/吨。 现货市场上，尿素价格波动较大，南华期货统计分析，目前主流区域中小颗粒尿素价格参约1820～1860元/吨。银河期货研究报告称，随着尿素进入需求旺 季，氮肥生产将全面启动，同时出口政策预期持续扰动尿素价格持续上涨，后期走势需进一步关注出口信息变动影响。 作为"粮食的粮食"，尿素是目前农业上使用量最多的高效氮肥，受天然气供应短缺、环保限产、煤价及国际氮肥市场价格上涨等因素影响，尿素价格波动成 为企业承储面临的问题。 "一直以来我国实施化肥淡季商业储备制度，不过这类储备项目的承储企业一般需保障化肥库存约3个月在库。"行业人士告诉记者，在此期间，储备化肥存 在价格下跌风险。对此，2021年郑商所推出尿素"商储无忧"项目，对参与国家商业化肥储备并存在风险对冲需求的企业提供套期保值的资金支持。当前2025 年度"商储无忧"项目正有序开展，基本做到了尿素主要产销省及粮食产区全覆盖。 "去年国储中标时尿素价格较高，但之后价格一路下跌，最低跌至1500元 ...

Group 1 - The overall fertilizer market is experiencing a "first decline, then rise" trend in Q1 2025, with initial supply-demand mismatches leading to continued low prices for coal chemical products, including urea and melamine [1] - In March, driven by spring farming demand and increased export expectations, urea prices rebounded quickly, positively impacting downstream product prices [1] - The company's overall gross margin decreased by 4 percentage points year-on-year but increased by nearly 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14%, indicating a rising trend [1] Group 2 - The company's revenue for Q1 reached 5.846 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 197.5 million yuan, with basic earnings per share at 16.3 cents [1] - The company has strengthened cost control, with the proportion of three expenses decreasing by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year, particularly financial expenses, which fell by 9% [1] Group 3 - Due to the decline in raw coal prices, the support for urea prices weakened, leading to a larger price drop for urea compared to cost reductions, resulting in a 23% year-on-year decline in overall gross margin [2] - However, with improvements in the fertilizer supply-demand landscape, product prices are gradually recovering, leading to a 26% quarter-on-quarter increase in gross margin [2] - The company's net profit, excluding non-recurring items, saw a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 89%, indicating a stable upward trend in operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinzhengdai, is actively promoting its controlled-release fertilizer technology globally, aiming to establish itself as a leader in this sector while enhancing its product offerings and operational efficiency [2][3][6]. Group 1: Global Promotion of Controlled-Release Fertilizer - Jinzhengdai has initiated a global promotion action for controlled-release fertilizers, collaborating with various agricultural institutions and launching this initiative in Europe and Southeast Asia [2]. - The company has established its first overseas controlled-release fertilizer factory in the Netherlands and signed a strategic partnership with AgriAKU in Indonesia to promote its products in Southeast Asia [2][3]. - Future plans include collaborations with the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Global Fertilizer Industry Association to expand into Central and Eastern Europe, Vietnam, Japan, and Africa [2]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - Jinzhengdai aims to be a respected provider of comprehensive agricultural solutions, focusing on high-efficiency fertilizers, including controlled-release fertilizers, which are encouraged by the government [2]. - The company has developed a full range of plant nutrition products and established five major technical solutions to enhance crop yield and quality [2]. - The company is focusing on marketing breakthroughs and cost reduction as key strategies for 2025, emphasizing product transformation and digital transformation to improve sales [3][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In Q1 2025, Jinzhengdai reported revenues of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, but a net profit of only 8.8 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous periods [4][13]. - The company is addressing low capacity utilization and aims to improve operational efficiency through better resource allocation and management practices [3][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had total liabilities of 8.9 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 80.61%, indicating ongoing efforts to manage and reduce debt levels [8].