Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agrochemical products industry. 2. Core Viewpoints The agrochemical products industry has stable demand supported by the "stable grain supply" policy and the growth of fertilizer and pesticide exports. The supply - side ecosystem is expected to optimize under the "anti - involution" policy, and the industry's profitability is expected to increase. Policy support for food security has strengthened the demand for agrochemical products, and multi - dimensional factors such as domestic consumption and exports have further boosted the demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side reform in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors is promoting industry concentration and high - quality development [1][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agrochemical Products Industry Overview - **Policy Support and Demand Foundation**: The government has continuously strengthened food security policies. In 2025, the national grain output reached 14297.5 billion jin, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, providing core support for agrochemical product demand. Domestic food consumption is rigid, and the demand for agrochemical products is driven by multiple factors such as domestic food, feed consumption, and exports. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, and the export volume of pesticides also increased significantly [12][13]. - **Supply - side Optimization**: The government and the industry are jointly promoting "anti - involution." The Chinese Pesticide Industry Association launched a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action, and the Chinese Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline. As backward production capacity exits and new capacity is limited, the industry ecosystem is expected to improve [14]. 3.2 Fertilizer Industry - **Industry Chain and Supply - side Reform**: The fertilizer industry includes phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. In recent years, the supply - side reform has advanced, with an increase in fertilizer production but a decrease in application and an improvement in utilization efficiency. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers, while the import volume decreased by 1.22% year - on - year [15][20]. - **Phosphate Fertilizer Sub - sector**: The supply of phosphate fertilizers is restricted by phosphate rock resources. In 2025, from January to November, the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate decreased year - on - year. The price of phosphate fertilizers has been rising due to the tight balance of phosphate rock supply and demand and strict policies on new phosphate ammonium capacity [32][54]. 3.3 Pesticide Industry - **Industry Structure and Policy - driven Supply Improvement**: Pesticides are used for pest control and plant growth regulation. China is the world's largest producer of pesticide technicals, but there is a problem of over - capacity. In 2025, the Chinese Pesticide Industry Association proposed a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action plan, and new policies such as the revised "Pesticide Registration Management Method" will optimize the industry's competition pattern [61][62]. - **Production, Demand, and Price Trends**: In 2025, from January to November, the growth rate of China's pesticide technical production decreased, but the export volume increased. The global demand for pesticides is rigid, and pesticide prices are expected to recover as over - capacity is alleviated [63][71]. - **Glyphosate Sub - sector**: Glyphosate is the most widely used single - product pesticide globally. Policy restricts new capacity, and the inventory has been decreasing since 2025. The growth of global transgenic crop planting area drives the demand and export of glyphosate, and the price is expected to rise, and the industry's prosperity is expected to increase [75][90]. 3.4 Agrochemical Products Industry Convertible Bonds Basic Situation - **General Information**: As of December 26, 2025, the outstanding balance of convertible bonds in the agrochemical products industry totaled 9.767 billion yuan, accounting for 25.27% of the convertible bond balance in the basic chemical industry. The un - converted ratio of all convertible bonds is over 90%, and the credit ratings range from AA - to AA + [91][94]. - **Trading and Valuation**: The trading volume of Hebang Convertible Bonds is the highest, with an annual trading volume exceeding 24 billion yuan. Since 2025, both the prices of agrochemical convertible bonds and their underlying stocks have risen, and the price increase of underlying stocks is generally stronger than that of convertible bonds. All agrochemical convertible bonds are balanced - type, with Yangfeng Convertible Bonds having a relatively high conversion premium rate of over 40% [95][99]. - **Financial Performance**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the profitability of most issuers of agrochemical convertible bonds has recovered. The operating net cash flow of most issuers has shown continuous inflow or improvement, and the asset - liability ratio at the end of Q3 in 2025 is generally controllable [3][103]. 3.5 Individual Bond Situations - **Xingfa Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Xingfa Group, is a leading enterprise in the phosphate chemical industry, with advantages in phosphate rock mining rights and power costs. It has a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, and its new energy materials business is advancing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [108][110]. - **Suli Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Suli Co., Ltd., is engaged in pesticides, flame retardants, and other fine chemical products. In 2025, the demand in the agrochemical market recovered, and the quantity and price of its products such as chlorothalonil and decabromodiphenylethane increased, driving the growth of the company's performance [111][112]. - **Fengshan Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Fengshan Group, is involved in pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. In 2025, the company's net profit turned from loss to profit in the first three quarters, and its operating performance improved [113][115]. - **Hebang Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Hebang Biotech, is engaged in mining, chemicals, photovoltaic glass, etc. The company has strengthened its mining layout, and the phosphate rock business has been prosperous. Since the second quarter of 2025, the quantity and price of glyphosate have increased [116][117]. - **Yangfeng Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, New Yangfeng, is a leading enterprise in phosphate compound fertilizers. It has a complete industrial chain layout, and its new fertilizer business is developing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [118][119].

2025年，涨价题材成为市场核心主线之一。 受供需格局重构、产业升级、政策引导等多重因素影响，国内产业呈现"结构性涨价"特征。 一方面，高景气赛道涨幅突出：锂电池产业链核心材料价格飙升数倍，存储芯片市场迈入超级景气周 期，有色金属板块指数年内累计涨幅突破85%...... 与此同时，化工、煤炭、建材等行业以"反内卷"破局，通过自律减产、主动调价等举措优化供需结构。 多个细分品种厂商联合推进价格修复，以期实现量利双升。 锂电池产业链：供需紧平衡引爆涨价潮 2025年，受储能需求爆发等多重因素催化，锂电池产业链核心产品价格强势上涨。 作为电解液核心溶质的六氟磷酸锂表现尤为抢眼，价格从2025年7月底不超过5万元/吨一度飙升至12月 的17万元/吨。12月30日，上海有色数据显示，电池级碳酸锂价格已触及11.8万元/吨的高点；12月26 日，碳酸锂市场在连涨多日后迎来标志性突破，主力合约盘中站上13万元/吨关口。 不仅如此，另一重要材料磷酸铁锂在多日价格高企后，出现了头部厂商减产检修与集体挺价的现象。锂 电池电解液关键溶剂碳酸乙烯酯（EC）、添加剂VC（碳酸亚乙烯酯）、FEC（氟代碳酸乙烯酯）价格 也纷纷回暖，保持 ...

"十四五"期间，新洋丰农业科技股份有限公司(以下简称新洋丰)以战略定力破局，以创新动能领航，完成了从单 一磷复肥主业向"磷复肥+新能源材料及精细化工"双主业的历史性跨越；从过去单纯靠规模和资源转向靠产品力和 服务力，形成了差异化的竞争新优势。5年来，新洋丰在产业链布局、科技创新、绿色转型等领域取得突破性成 就，不仅巩固了在磷复肥行业领军地位，更构建起可持续发展的坚实底座，为"十五五"期间的价值跃升积蓄了强 大势能。 新洋丰荆门总部生产基地 稳增长 全链协同筑牢发展"压舱石" "十四五"期间，新洋丰保持了高质量发展态势，营收与净利润保持稳健增长。其中，新洋丰主导产品复合肥产销 量始终位居行业第一，磷酸一铵产销量位居行业前三。数据显示，2024年新洋丰营收155.63亿元，净利润13.15亿 元，较2020年分别增长35.3%、27.38%。这组亮眼数据的背后是新洋丰"资源供应—高效制造—市场服务"全产业 链协同发力的坚实支撑。 "十四五"期间，新洋丰还通过建设一系列项目，实现纵向"强链补链"。例如，30万吨/年合成氨技改项目在湖北荆 门总部建成，实现湖北荆门、湖北钟祥、湖北宜都3个基地合成氨原料自给自足；曼海姆 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The domestic monoammonium phosphate market is transitioning from a cost-driven price increase to a high-level consolidation under strong policy guidance, influenced by policy regulation, cost support, and demand dynamics [1][5] - Policy measures include a combination of export control, supply stabilization, and raw material adjustment, aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing drastic price changes [1][5] - The export suspension policy effectively locks domestic resources, alleviating supply pressure before the spring plowing season, while mandatory operational rates ensure stable market circulation [1][5] Group 2: Cost Factors - There is still support from the cost side, but different raw material trends have shown divergence, with overall stability and slight easing [2][6] - Phosphate rock companies have ample orders, but regional supply constraints are prominent, particularly in Guizhou and Hubei, leading to tight overall supply and stable prices [7] - Sulfur prices remain high, with limited import volumes expected in January 2026, while domestic prices may see slight adjustments due to policy guidance [7] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand side exhibits a "short-term weakness + medium-term support" characteristic, with the focus of negotiations on procurement timing and price expectations [2][7] - As of December 19, the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization has dropped to 37.75%, the lowest in five years, with many companies having sufficient inventory for short-term production needs [8] - The observed demand weakness is not indicative of a complete demand shrinkage but rather a postponement based on policy and price expectations, suggesting potential recovery as the spring planting season approaches [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with policy price constraints and rigid cost support creating a balance [4][9] - Future market direction will depend on three core variables: raw material price trends, demand release timing, and the effectiveness of policy implementation [4][9] - Downstream compound fertilizer companies may continue to adopt a just-in-time purchasing model to avoid high inventory costs, while raw material price fluctuations could impact market sentiment [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with expectations for leading companies to see volume and profit recovery, as well as increased dividends [5][7][28] - The compound fertilizer market is transitioning towards new types of fertilizers that are more efficient, specialized, functional, and precise, driven by changes in agricultural practices and consumer demand [28] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side - The consumption of compound fertilizers has a strong necessity attribute, with the compound fertilizer application rate in China expected to continue rising. From 2000 to 2023, the application of compound fertilizers increased from 9.18 million tons to 24.01 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.3%, while the overall fertilizer application rate reached 47.8% in 2023 [20][24][22] 2. Supply Side - The compound fertilizer industry operates on a sales-based production model, with a low operating rate. As of November 2025, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity was 134.14 million tons, with an annualized operating rate of 38.8% [27][39][36] - The industry is characterized by a seasonal demand pattern, with production concentrated in resource-rich areas or sales locations, leading to a fragmented capacity distribution [28][39] 3. Price Review and Competitive Landscape - The pricing of compound fertilizers is primarily based on a cost-plus model, with raw material costs accounting for over 80% of total costs. The report notes that fluctuations in raw material prices significantly impact the profitability of compound fertilizers [43][42] - Leading companies are enhancing their competitive advantages through comprehensive strategies involving cost management, product development, branding, and distribution channels [6][7][28] 4. Company Analysis - Key players in the compound fertilizer industry include New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley, all of which have demonstrated significant advantages in terms of production capacity and integrated supply chains [6][7][28] - New Yangfeng has a production capacity of 7.98 million tons of compound fertilizers and has maintained a leading position in sales volume for several years [6][7] - Yuntu Holdings focuses on developing a nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer industry chain and has a production capacity of 7.45 million tons [6][7] - Stanley employs a comprehensive business model that integrates branding, channels, products, and services, with a production capacity of 5.90 million tons [6][7]

数据显示，诺德基金旗下1只基金重仓川恒股份。诺德量化核心A（006267）三季度持有股数5.05万股， 占基金净值比例为1.11%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约2.48万元。 诺德量化核心A（006267）成立日期2018年11月22日，最新规模9323.32万。今年以来收益39.64%，同 类排名2049/8087；近一年收益34.58%，同类排名2322/8085；成立以来收益53.24%。 12月30日，川恒股份跌1.33%，截至发稿，报36.23元/股，成交741.06万元，换手率0.03%，总市值 220.16亿元。 资料显示，贵州川恒化工股份有限公司位于贵州省黔南布依族苗族自治州福泉市龙昌镇，成立日期2002 年11月25日，上市日期2017年8月25日，公司主营业务涉及磷酸及磷酸盐产品的生产、销售。主营业务 收入构成为：磷酸28.41%，饲料级磷酸二氢钙25.11%，磷酸一铵21.29%，磷酸铁9.46%，磷矿石 6.93%，其他产品3.56%，贸易收入1.94%，其他1.57%，铁精粉1.11%，硫酸铵0.61%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 截至发稿，王恒楠累计任职时间7年41天，现 ...

分红方面，司尔特A股上市后累计派现14.59亿元。近三年，累计派现5.29亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，司尔特十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流通 股东，持股789.54万股，相比上期增加2.85万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融券方面，司尔特12月29日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元； 融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，安徽省司尔特肥业股份有限公司位于安徽省宁国经济技术开发区汪溪园区，成立日期1997年 11月5日，上市日期2011年1月18日，公司主营业务涉及各类磷复肥、专用测土配方肥、生态肥料及新型 肥料等肥料的研发、生产、销售与服务。主营业务收入构成为：三元复合肥51.84%，磷酸一铵 30.78%，矿资源类11.52%，其他及副产品5.58%，医疗服务0.28%。 截至9月30日，司尔特股东户数4.10万，较上期减少8.55%；人均流通股20837股，较上期增加9.36%。 2025年1月-9月，司尔特实现营业收入32.25亿元，同比增长5.27%；归母净利润1.55亿元， ...

责任编辑：董翔宇 数字工厂驾驶舱电子屏上显示的"硫酸装置连续稳定运行673天"，创造了行业纪录，彰显了公司以精益 运维树立行业标杆的坚实步伐。工作人员介绍，公司着力构建"纵向到底、横向到边"的精细化运维体 系，纵向形成班组快速响应、技术精准支撑、管理强力保障的三级联动机制，横向执行关键设备精检、 重要设备详检、一般设备尽检的全覆盖巡检策略，全面提升装置运行的稳定性与可靠性，主要生产装置 运行管理处于行业领先水平。 磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵各条生产线上，机器开足马力生产。生产技术部部长董贵宁介绍，作为国内单体规 模最大的高浓度磷复肥制造企业，天安化工着力以技术突破驱动产业升级。面对全球化工产业技术竞争 新态势，公司系统梳理现有技术流程中的可改进环节，推进工艺优化与技术改造，煤气化装置试烧高热 值无烟煤、锅炉装置试烧低硫低热值燃料煤，进一步拓宽煤种适应性，降低生产成本。面对国内工业级 磷酸产能激增、同质化竞争激烈的现状，公司精制磷酸团队依托现有装置，通过自主研发逆向脱氟技 术、萃取剂无碱再生技术、萃洗液平衡除铁技术和高效冷却与弱氧化脱砷技术，成功试生产食品级精制 磷酸，构建了"工业级+食品级"双模式驱动、"75%+85 ...

周期开启跨年行情 20251221 摘要 股市短期或加速上涨，科技和非银板块仍被看好，周期和消费品中的转 型机会值得关注。机构保收益和降仓位对市场冲击已基本消化，创业板 表现强劲，科技行情远未结束。 中央经济工作会议强调推动投资止跌回稳及房地产去库存，旨在应对投 资增速和外商直接投资转负的局面，预计明年 3 月将公布大型基建项目， 财政和货币政策或将做出相应调整。 2026 年市场风格预计将倾向于质量成长或基本面策略回归，科技与非 科技、权重与小市值均有机会，但防守型策略资产可能面临挑战，重点 关注科技成长和周期成长方向。 航空业未来两年投资逻辑基于油价、汇率利好及国家提振消费政策，客 座率创新高后转向票价提升，供需关系改善将推动票价和盈利上升，建 议积极布局相关标的。 油运行业基本面稳健，原油轮运价维持高位，预计四季度及全年盈利将 创十年新高。合规市场供需关系持续向好，一年期期租价格上涨反映乐 观预期，春节前后运价回落时可逆向布局。 Q&A 对未来一段时间的市场行情有何看法？ 我们对未来市场行情持乐观态度。首先，政策预期有望上修，市场交投也将更 为活跃。在长时间的横盘震荡后，我们预计指数将逐步上升，并在春节 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company, Xinyangfeng, is a leading player in the domestic phosphate fertilizer industry, with over 40 years of experience in the agricultural chemical sector. It has established a dual business model of "phosphate fertilizer + new energy materials" and operates 12 production bases across the country, with an annual capacity of 10.28 million tons for various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers, 900,000 tons for phosphate rock, and 50,000 tons for iron phosphate [1][2]. - The company has reported significant growth in its performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 13.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.374 billion yuan, surging by 23.43% year-on-year. The price of monoammonium phosphate has also seen a notable increase [2]. - The company is focusing its capital expenditures on deepening its industrial chain to solidify long-term competitiveness. Key projects include the construction of a new materials industrial park in Yichang, Hubei, and a specialized fertilizer project in Bengbu, Anhui, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.658 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 times. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.769 billion yuan and 1.977 billion yuan, respectively, with P/E ratios of 11 times and 10 times [3][5]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 15.563 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.056 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.17% [5].