Asian stocks ended mostly lower on Wednesday, failing to hold onto early gains after a three-day sell-off as investors awaited Nvidia earnings, the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28-, and the delayed September jobs report. The dollar index managed to hold ground amid fading hopes of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Gold ticked higher as risk-off mood in financial helped buoy safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Oil prices fell on oversupply worries ...

Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The US is facing the steepest tariff barriers since the 1940s, impacting long-established trade ties and leading to a decline in people-to-people interactions, particularly among Chinese students and Singaporean tourists [1][6][29] - Investment pledges from countries like Japan and South Korea amount to $900 billion, but incidents such as immigration raids have undermined trust [1][5] - The US is at risk of isolating itself from a region projected to account for nearly 60% of the global economy by 2050, compared to just 11% for the US [6][29] China's Economic Strategy - China remains a manufacturing powerhouse, with its high-tech sector now contributing over 15% to GDP, up from less than 11% in 2017 [8][9] - The Chinese government is focusing on closing the gap in strategic technologies like semiconductors and AI, with significant investments in future industries [8][9] - Despite tariffs, Chinese firms maintain substantial sales to American importers, estimated at around $1 billion daily [22] Regional Dynamics and Alliances - India and China are working to improve relations, with India recognizing the need for Chinese investment to boost its manufacturing sector [12][13] - Southeast Asian nations are increasingly economically intertwined with China, while also seeking to maintain neutrality amid rising tensions with the US [12][29] - The expanding BRICS group, now including Indonesia, provides China with additional avenues to strengthen ties in the region [16][29] Labor and Immigration Issues - The number of international students entering the US has dropped significantly, with a 19% decrease in August, marking the lowest figures since 2021 [18][29] - Trump's new $100,000 fee on H-1B applications is expected to disproportionately affect Indian workers, who make up two-thirds of these visas [19][29] Investment and Manufacturing Trends - Companies like Apple have managed to secure exemptions from tariffs, while Asian investment pledges to the US are in the hundreds of billions [22][29] - The US is witnessing a shift in manufacturing and investment patterns, with potential Asian capital flowing into the US despite the current trade tensions [22][29] Geopolitical Considerations - As China's influence grows, neighboring countries are increasingly seeking US support as a counterbalance, leading to military agreements such as nuclear submarine deals with Australia and South Korea [24][29] - The US's approach has led to a perception of it as a rival or bully, which could have long-term implications for its role in the Asian economy [27][29]

Core Insights - Amazon's stock experienced a decline of over 4% due to regulatory developments in the EU and an analyst downgrade [1][3] - The EU has classified Amazon and 18 other tech companies as "critical" technology partners, placing them under stricter regulatory supervision [2][3] Regulatory Developments - The European Union's designation of Amazon as a "critical" technology partner indicates increased scrutiny from regulators, which may impact operational flexibility [2][3] - EU regulators are known for being more aggressive in limiting the power of tech giants compared to their U.S. counterparts [3] Analyst Insights - Rothschild Redburn's analyst Alex Haissl downgraded Amazon's stock from "buy" to "neutral," setting a new price target of $250 per share [3] - Haissl expressed concerns regarding the capital intensity and pricing power associated with generative AI, which he believes could affect tech companies' margins [4] Financial Metrics - As of the latest trading day, Amazon's stock price is $222.58, with a market capitalization of $2,489 billion [6] - The stock's 52-week range is between $161.38 and $258.60, indicating significant volatility [6] Market Position - Despite the regulatory challenges and analyst downgrade, Amazon's strong foundation in technology and resources may mitigate potential negative impacts on its stock [6][7] - The company's success in the cloud business, Amazon Web Services, supports its position as a potential buy candidate [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stocks experienced muted movements with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained roughly flat following a tech-led sell-off [1] - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings, which are expected to influence the stock's movement by up to 7% in either direction, potentially impacting the overall S&P 500 rally driven by AI optimism [2] Group 2: Big Tech Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding Big Tech's significant spending on AI development, leading to declines as high-profile investors offload their holdings [3] - Companies like Amazon are reportedly increasing their borrowing to fund AI initiatives, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of Fed minutes is expected to provide insights into the economy and future monetary policy, with traders divided on the likelihood of further rate cuts in December [4] - The September jobs report, delayed due to the government shutdown, is anticipated to influence market views on economic conditions [4] Group 4: Consumer Spending Insights - Earnings reports from major retailers are expected to shed light on US consumer spending as the holiday season approaches, with Target cutting its earnings outlook and indicating a weak holiday season, while Lowe's reported positive sales [5]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight increase after a tech-led selloff, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both up by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained relatively unchanged [1] - The previous trading day saw the Dow and S&P 500 experience their fourth consecutive decline, while the Nasdaq Composite fell for the fifth time in six sessions [2] Earnings Expectations - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, which is expected to influence the AI trade significantly [3] - Options trading suggests Nvidia's stock could fluctuate by up to 7%, potentially impacting its market value by over $300 billion [3] - Quarterly results from major retailers like Target, Lowe's, and TJX Companies are also expected, which may provide insights into US consumer spending ahead of the holiday season [4] Economic Indicators - The first major economic data release post-government shutdown is the delayed September jobs report, which is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [5] - Traders are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December based on the upcoming labor figures [5] Company-Specific News - Constellation Energy's stock rose by 3% after the US Department of Energy announced a $1 billion loan to restart a nuclear reactor project in Pennsylvania, which is contracted to supply power to Microsoft’s data centers [5]

Market Overview - Stocks rebounded on Wednesday following a tech-led sell-off, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.4%, the S&P 500 increasing nearly 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.2% [1] Nvidia Earnings - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings, expected to influence the stock by up to 7% in either direction, marking a critical moment for the S&P 500 rally driven by AI growth optimism [2] Big Tech Spending Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding Big Tech's significant investments in AI, leading to declines as major investors offload shares. Companies like Amazon are increasing borrowing to support AI initiatives amid a potential halt in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The upcoming release of Fed minutes is crucial for understanding economic conditions and future monetary policy, with traders divided on the likelihood of further rate cuts in December [4] Consumer Spending Indicators - Earnings reports from major retailers are expected to provide insights into US consumer spending as the holiday season approaches. Target has lowered its earnings outlook, indicating a weak holiday season, while Lowe's reported positive sales [5]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a decline, primarily driven by concerns over high AI valuations, with Nvidia dropping 2% and down 10% for the month, affecting other major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft [1] - Home Depot reported disappointing earnings and reduced guidance, contributing to negative market sentiment, leading to all three major indexes closing in the red and the S&P 500 on a four-day losing streak [2] - The odds of a December rate cut have decreased from over 90% to approximately 50%, indicating uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3] Performance of Assets - Despite the broader market downturn, gold rebounded strongly from the $4,000 level, silver increased by 1.4%, and bitcoin recovered after a brief dip, suggesting a shift towards precious metals and cryptocurrencies [3][8] - The domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) remained flat, while the international TTI closed in the red, reflecting mixed performance across different markets [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile until economic data indicates a balance between growth and inflation, which would alleviate stagflation concerns and support potential rate cuts by the Fed [4]

Tech Stocks Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia falling over 1%, Amazon down 3%, and Microsoft decreasing by 2% [1][20] - The S&P 500 could potentially see an 8% to 9% decline, influenced by upcoming earnings reports and employment data [1][20] Nvidia Earnings Concerns - Nvidia's stock has dropped 9% this month ahead of its third-quarter results, raising concerns about high tech valuations and AI fundamentals [2][20] - Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings of $1.25 per share (up 54% year-over-year) and revenue of $55 billion (up 57% year-over-year) [8][20] AI Investments and Market Sentiment - Microsoft and Nvidia are investing billions in Anthropic as part of a $30 billion AI spending deal, but this has not positively impacted tech stocks as expected [5][20] - Investors are questioning when companies will start generating real profits from AI investments, indicating that significant returns may not materialize in the near term [5][20] Home Depot Earnings - Home Depot shares declined after the company missed earnings expectations and lowered its full-year outlook [7][20] Meta Antitrust Case - Meta won an antitrust trial against the Federal Trade Commission, with the court ruling that the FTC failed to prove Meta currently holds monopoly power [9][10][20] Market Trends - 18 S&P 500 stocks reached new 52-week lows, while five stocks hit all-time highs [11][19][20] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 0.8%, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500, although it remains down more than 1% for the week [15][20]

Market Outlook - Markets are anticipating Nvidia's earnings report for insights on the AI outlook, along with earnings from Target and Walmart to gauge consumer spending health [1] - The US Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose by 1 to a 7-month high of 38, surpassing expectations of no change at 37 [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims were reported at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims rising by 10,000 to a 2-month high of 1.957 million [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin's dovish comments regarding layoffs by large companies and inflation expectations supported stock market recovery [2] - The 10-year T-note yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.12% following ADP's report of an average job loss of 2,500 per week in the four weeks ending November 1 [2] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes extended declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 reaching 1-month lows, driven by weakness in technology stocks [3][4] - Amazon.com and Microsoft saw significant declines of over 4% and 2% respectively after a downgrade by Rothschild & Co Redburn [3][10] - Home Depot's stock fell over 6% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance, indicating reduced consumer spending on home improvements [3][12] Earnings Season Insights - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a 14.6% increase in earnings, significantly above the expected 7.2% [6] - Home Depot reported Q3 comparable sales growth of only 0.2%, below the consensus of 1.36%, and adjusted its full-year operating margin estimate downwards [12] International Market Trends - Overseas stock markets also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.88%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.81%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 3.22% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - December 10-year T-notes closed up by 4.5 ticks, with the yield falling to 4.121%, driven by stock market weakness and labor market concerns [8] - European government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year German bund yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points [9]

Stocks regained some ground after an early sell-off but still ended Tuesday's trading significantly lower. The major averages added to the notable losses posted during Monday's session, once again falling to their lowest closing levels in a month.The major averages all finished the day firmly in negative territory. The Dow slumped 498.50 points or 1.1 percent to 46,091.74, the Nasdaq tumbled 275.23 points or 1.2 percent to 22,432.85 and the S&P 500 slid 55.09 points or 0.8 percent to 6,617.32.Weakness amon ...