聚烯烃：短期或反弹，但趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 LLDPE观点：短期震荡为主 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 5 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 PP：短期或反弹 但趋势仍有压力 ◆ 首先、贸易战因素变换频繁，正因如此当下市场当方面持续下跌在宏观端概率不大，反而在谈判临近尾 声需要警惕。在供应端，6月检修仍偏高，但目前检修量不足以改变供需格局，新增产能大大抵消了供应 端的努力。成本端仍有压力因此短期市场或以震荡市为主，但趋势仍有压力； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ ...

Core Insights - The pollution caused by discarded plastics and the sustainable development of the plastic industry have become global environmental and technological issues of significant concern [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - A high-level academic salon on "Green and Sustainable Development of Plastics" was held on June 7 in Beijing, attended by experts from research institutions, universities, and related enterprises [1] - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent academicians, focusing on the prevention of plastic pollution and the sustainable development of the plastic industry [1][2] Group 2: Research and Innovations - Wang Qi, a professor from Sichuan University, presented research on the efficient recycling of mixed and cross-linked waste plastics using environmentally friendly methods [1] - Tang Yong emphasized the need for a sustainable development concept that integrates the retirement and creation of plastics, sharing preliminary results of his explorations [1][2] - Chen Xuesi highlighted the significance of biodegradable polymers like polylactic acid in replacing traditional petrochemical plastics and discussed their industrialization [2] Group 3: Future Directions and Recommendations - Experts proposed several strategies for achieving green and sustainable development in the plastic industry, including reducing the use of single-use plastics, developing new degradable materials, and increasing the use of bio-based plastics [3] - There is a call for increased support for the research and development of new biodegradable plastics that can decompose into carbon dioxide and water, thereby minimizing environmental harm from non-recyclable single-use plastics [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable development in the plastic industry, focusing on recycling, biodegradable plastics, and reducing plastic waste [1][2][3] - China's plastic production has increased nearly 400,000 times since the establishment of the new China, making it the world's largest producer and consumer of plastics, but this rapid growth has led to significant plastic waste issues [1] - In 2023, China generated 62 million tons of plastic waste, with a recycling rate of approximately 30%, which is significantly higher than the global average of 9% [2] Group 2 - Experts suggest that to mitigate the environmental impact of plastic waste, it is essential to reduce the use of single-use plastics and develop new biodegradable materials that can decompose in specific environments [3] - There is a call for the development of bio-based plastics to decrease reliance on fossil resources and increase the use of renewable resources in the plastic industry [3] - The articles highlight the importance of advancing environmentally friendly recycling technologies and chemical recycling methods to safely manage plastic waste [2][3]

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, the plastic production in Shanxi Province reached 263,000 tons, representing a 4.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is 6.7 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2024, but 4.7 percentage points lower than the national growth rate [1] - The total plastic production in Shanxi accounted for 0.8% of the national production of 34,410,488.5 tons during the same period [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, the plastic production in Shanxi Province was 89,000 tons, showing a 0.7% increase compared to March 2024, which is 7.0 percentage points lower than the growth rate in 2024 [2] - The growth rate in March 2025 was also 9.5 percentage points lower than the national growth rate [2] - Shanxi's March production represented 0.7% of the national total of 12,259,179.2 tons for that month [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716) has announced a cash dividend distribution of 0.20 RMB per share, with the record date set for June 11, 2025 [1] - As of June 6, 2025, Zhongyan Co., Ltd. closed at 35.53 RMB, reflecting a 0.17% increase from the previous week [1] - The company's total market capitalization is currently 4.323 billion RMB, ranking 34th in the plastic sector and 3324th among all A-shares [1] Group 2 - The cash dividend distribution totals 24,336,000 RMB, with the ex-dividend date and payment date both set for June 12, 2025 [1] - Different tax treatments apply to various types of shareholders, with specific amounts detailed for individual and institutional investors [1] - For shareholders holding unrestricted shares for over one year, the actual cash dividend received is 0.20 RMB per share, while those holding for one year or less will have taxes calculated upon transfer [1]

Summary of Jinfa Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinfa Technology - **Industry**: New Materials, Special Engineering Plastics, Petrochemicals Key Points and Arguments Sales and Production Goals - Jinfa Technology maintains a sales target of 300,000 tons for 2025, unaffected by external market fluctuations [2][3] - The new materials segment shows improvement in biodegradable plastics, special engineering plastics, and composite materials, particularly benefiting from import substitution opportunities [2][3] Special Engineering Plastics - Special engineering plastics sales reached 24,000 tons last year, with high-temperature nylon being the largest contributor [4] - The company is constructing 15,000 tons of LCP capacity, expected to be released gradually by the end of the year [4][15] - PPSU is experiencing rapid growth due to expanded applications in consumer electronics, medical, and new energy sectors [15][16] Financial Performance - The overall profit per ton is approximately 1,000 yuan, with higher margins for overseas orders [12] - The special engineering plastics segment is expected to see a growth rate of over 30% this year, with a net profit of about 10,000 yuan per ton [16] Impact of Tariffs - Tariff changes have positively impacted special engineering plastics due to the replacement of U.S. suppliers, while the impact on sensing plastics is minimal [5] - The petrochemical segment has managed to mitigate the impact of propane price fluctuations through inventory management [5][6] Operational Developments - The Ningbo base has transitioned to solid operations, increasing polypropylene production to 900,000-1,000,000 tons with decreasing costs [9] - The integrated modification device is set to be operational in Q4, producing specialized materials for automotive applications [9] International Expansion - The overseas base layout is progressing well, with new facilities in Vietnam and Spain, and ongoing construction in Mexico and Poland [10] - The company aims to increase the overseas business proportion to over 30% in the coming years [10] Customer Base and Order Quality - New overseas orders come from industries such as automotive, home appliances, new energy, and consumer electronics, with better order quality and margins compared to domestic orders [11][12] Management and Strategy - The new management team, primarily composed of individuals born in the 1980s, has maintained a stable strategy focusing on core businesses and optimizing the supply chain [23] - The company has implemented strict performance evaluation mechanisms for the new management, including revenue, profit, and turnover rate metrics [24] Future Outlook - The company is considering expanding its polymer production capacity based on future demand, with a focus on maximizing investment returns [19][21] - Jinfa Technology is actively exploring emerging industries, such as robotics, to ensure maximum investment returns [22] Employee Incentives - The company has established a dual incentive system combining cash rewards and stock options to motivate management and retain talent [24][25][26] Additional Important Information - The company is developing a one-stop solution for humanoid robots, providing a wide range of high-temperature materials for various applications [20] - The management emphasizes a calm approach to external market changes, focusing on technological advancements to enhance product competitiveness [23]

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, the primary plastic production in Qinghai Province reached 187,000 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 16.2 percentage points lower than 2024 and 18.5 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total primary plastic production in Qinghai accounted for 0.5% of the national output of 34,410,488.5 tons during the same period [1] - In March 2025, the primary plastic production in Qinghai was 62,000 tons, down 19.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate 41.6 percentage points lower than 2024 and 30.0 percentage points lower than the national average [2] Group 2 - The production in March 2025 represented 0.5% of the national primary plastic production of 12,259,179.2 tons [2] - The data indicates a significant decline in production both in the first quarter and specifically in March, highlighting potential challenges in the local plastic industry [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Do not chase short positions due to the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene [2]. - Long - term: There is still pressure on LLDPE as the supply pressure is large with new PE plant capacities in 2025 and the demand is weak [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2509 was 7049, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The trading volume was 344,165, and the open interest decreased by 10,950 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 49 (previous day: 37), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 31 (previous day: 27) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In North China, the price was 7000 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7100 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 7230 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - LLDPE market prices fluctuated between 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting the market trading atmosphere. Some ex - factory prices of PetroChina in the Northwest and Northeast were adjusted, while most others remained stable. Traders tentatively raised prices, and end - users made purchases at low prices [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The trade war has increased global trade uncertainty, but the short - term rebound of crude oil at the cost end and the decent low - price trading volume of polyethylene suggest not to chase short positions [2]. - **Supply - demand**: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new PE plant capacity in China is 2.05 million tons, resulting in large supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, with the overall operating rate decreasing by 1.07% compared to the previous period, and the demand will continue to decline. The demand for packaging films is average, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.59%. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - **Capacity Switch**: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. As the HDPE inventory continues to decline and the price difference widens, there may be a capacity switch between the two. Some plants have already started to switch production, and if full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, polyethylene followed the rise of coking coal, but its own fundamentals changed little. On the supply side, PE plants are in the peak maintenance season, with a marginal decrease in supply. However, due to the large number of new plant startups at the beginning of the year, production is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the low - profit environment suppresses the operating rate, and the agricultural film is in the off - season of production and sales, resulting in weak demand [2] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include PE plants entering the seasonal maintenance period, which is expected to last until July, and the current futures price being at a relatively low level with limited downward space. Negative factors include the planned startups of multiple HDPE plants in the middle of the year and the reduction in domestic demand due to the off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.89% and a historical percentile of 36.3% over the past 3 years [1] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management (High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline)**: For the long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell L2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 70 - 120 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] - **Procurement Management (Low regular inventory, want to purchase according to orders)**: For the short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell L2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 130 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1] Polyethylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on June 4, 2025, was 116 yuan/ton, showing a daily change of - 86 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 77 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7018, 7000, and 7049 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 82, 65, and 86 yuan/ton and weekly increases of 39, 14, and 42 yuan/ton [5] - The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads were 18, - 49, and - 31 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 17, - 21, and - 4 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 25, - 28, and - 3 yuan/ton. The L - P spread was 101 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 4, 2025, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7030, 7160, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, - 30, and 0 yuan/ton, and the weekly changes were - 100, - 110, and - 110 yuan/ton [7] - The East China - North China and East China - South China regional spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 30 and - 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and 0 yuan/ton [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between HDPE film, HDPE hollow, HDPE injection, HDPE drawing, HDPE pipe, LDPE film, and LLDPE film had different values and changes. For example, the HDPE film - LLDPE film spread was 510 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price was 66 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly increase of 2.06 dollars/barrel. The US ethane price was 0.225 dollars/gallon, with a daily increase of 0.0002 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0231 dollars/gallon [7] - The Northwest coal price was 475 yuan/ton with no change, and the East China methanol price was 2355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 60 yuan/ton [7] - The oil - based PE profit was - (not provided), with a daily decrease of 95.8048 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 283.2918 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE profit was 716 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was 270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 205 yuan/ton. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1682 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.8709 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 209.1997 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was - (not provided) previously, with a daily increase of 191.8836 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 163.8362 yuan/ton [7]

Core Viewpoint - PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) is recognized as a third-generation high-performance thermoplastic engineering plastic, ideal for replacing traditional materials like metals and ceramics due to its superior properties such as high temperature resistance, self-lubrication, high strength, and chemical stability [1][3] Group 1: Performance Characteristics - PEEK exhibits excellent performance in high temperature (long-term use temperature > 260 °C), self-lubrication (friction coefficient 0.15–0.35), high strength (tensile strength > 150 MPa), and chemical stability (resistant to pH 1–14 corrosion), making it a preferred choice over traditional materials [1][3] Group 2: Synthesis Process - The main synthesis method for PEEK is nucleophilic substitution, which allows for precise control over the reaction process, resulting in high structural regularity and performance stability of the material [2] - The nucleophilic substitution process, while effective, incurs higher costs due to stringent reaction conditions and raw material expenses [2] Group 3: Demand and Market Potential - PEEK's lightweight, extreme environment resistance, low friction wear, and electromagnetic compatibility make it a critical material in robotics, with applications in motors, bearings, reducers, and housings [3] - Assuming a usage of 10 kg of PEEK per robot and a market price of 400,000 yuan per ton, a production of one million robots could generate a demand of 10,000 tons of PEEK, corresponding to a market size of 4 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Supply Landscape - The PEEK market has high technical barriers, with few companies mastering large-scale industrial production, primarily dominated by Victrex, Solvay S.A, and Evonik Industries AG [4] - Domestic companies such as Zhongyan Co., Watte Co., and Jinfat Technology are rapidly emerging, with significant production capacity being developed [4] - Key suppliers for PEEK raw materials include companies like Xinhang New Materials and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials for DFBP, and Brothers Technology for phenol [4]