Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on steel equities, suggesting to wait for further concrete policies before investing [5]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent government initiatives aimed at curbing excess competition and reducing capacity in the steel sector, highlighting a historical context of similar measures that have led to short-term price increases followed by declines [5]. - Investors are currently pricing in a potential "supply-side reform 2.0," but the report emphasizes the lack of concrete policies such as mandatory production cuts and consolidation of unprofitable mills, which are necessary for a more bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Sections Historical Policy Announcements - The report includes a table detailing historical policy announcements related to phasing out outdated capacities, showing various impacts on steel prices over different time frames [3]. - For instance, a symposium in January 2016 led to a 1.2% drop in rebar prices the following day, while subsequent announcements in February and April 2016 saw price increases of 1.0% and 0.3%, respectively [3]. Market Performance - Steel shares experienced significant fluctuations, with increases of 5% to 91% noted on July 2, attributed to government meetings and production cut notices in Tangshan [5]. - The report indicates that historical reactions to similar government announcements typically resulted in a 2% increase in share prices the following day, but declines of 2-5% after a month [5]. Global Steel Comparisons - A comparative analysis of global steel companies is provided, showcasing market capitalization, enterprise value, and performance metrics such as EV/EBITDA and PE ratios [7]. - For example, Baosteel has a market cap of $21.1 billion and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.0, while U.S. Steel Corp has a market cap of $12.4 billion with a PE ratio of 26.2 [7].

Market Overview - Wall Street ended the first day of July 2025 on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained slightly [1] - The contrasting movements in the major stock indices were influenced by opposing forces, including a feud between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and the U.S. Senate's passage of Trump's tax bill aimed at stimulating economic growth [2] Investment Opportunities - Amid market uncertainty, there is a potential opportunity to invest in low-leverage stocks that are not expensive and can provide a protective shield during turbulent times [3] - Suggested low-leverage stocks include Novartis (NVS), Alamo Group (ALG), ArcelorMittal (MT), Bilibili (BILI), and Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) [3][10] Low-Leverage Stocks - Low-leverage stocks are characterized by a lower debt-to-equity ratio, indicating reduced financial risk and improved solvency [7][8] - Investing in low-leverage stocks is recommended to avoid significant losses during economic downturns [6][7] Company Highlights - **Novartis (NVS)**: Recently completed the acquisition of Regulus Therapeutics, enhancing its drug portfolio. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVS's 2025 sales suggests a 7.3% improvement from 2024, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 7.9% [15][16] - **Alamo Group (ALG)**: Completed the acquisition of Ring-O-Matic, expanding its product offerings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALG's 2025 earnings indicates a 7.2% year-over-year improvement [17][18] - **ArcelorMittal (MT)**: Signed an agreement to sell operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, allowing a focus on higher-growth areas. The company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 49.8% [19] - **Bilibili (BILI)**: Reported a 24% year-over-year revenue increase and a 58% improvement in gross profit for Q1 2025. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 sales indicates a 12.1% improvement from 2024 [20][21] - **Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)**: Announced the acquisition of CEC Facilities Group, enhancing its service portfolio in high-growth markets. The company has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15% [22][23]

Business Overview - Insteel Industries is the largest U S manufacturer of steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications[5] - Nonresidential construction accounts for 85% of sales, while residential construction accounts for 15%[7] - Concrete product manufacturers represent 70% of sales, with distributors, rebar fabricators, and contractors making up the remaining 30%[8] Financial Performance - Net sales reached $5906 million in 2021[27] - EBITDA for 2021 was $1057 million, with an EBITDA margin of 179%[33, 35] - As of October 2, 2021, Insteel had $899 million in cash and no outstanding borrowings on its $1000 million revolving credit facility[48] Growth Strategy - Continued conversion of rebar users to Engineered Structural Mesh (ESM) represents a substantial growth opportunity[23] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including Ivy Steel & Wire for $503 million and American Spring Wire for $335 million[25] - Capital expenditures are expected to total up to $250 million in fiscal year 2022[45] Market Outlook - Public construction spending for August YTD 2021 was down 40% from the prior year but up 65% from the four-year prior average[55] - Private nonresidential construction for May YTD was down 91% from the prior year and down 36% from the four-year prior average[55] - Private residential construction for May YTD was up 238% from the prior year and up 247% from the four-year prior average[55]

Business Overview - Insteel Industries is the largest U S manufacturer of steel wire reinforcing products for concrete construction applications[5] - Nonresidential construction accounts for 85% of sales, while residential construction accounts for 15%[7] - Concrete product manufacturers represent 70% of sales, with distributors, rebar fabricators, and contractors making up the remaining 30%[8] Financial Performance - Year-to-date net sales reached $6188 million in 2022[28] - In fiscal year 2022 (39 weeks), net earnings were $100705 thousand and EBITDA was $142169 thousand[37] - As of July 2, 2022, the company had $630 million in cash and no borrowings on its $1000 million revolving credit facility[47] Growth Strategy - Continued conversion of rebar users to Engineered Structural Mesh (ESM) represents a substantial growth opportunity[23] - Capital expenditures are expected to total up to $200 million in fiscal year 2022[45] Market Outlook - Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) are leading indicators for nonresidential building construction activity[53] - Customer sentiment remains positive, and leading indicators for nonresidential construction end markets remain at expansionary levels[54]

关于"唐山7月4-15日烧结机限产30%"的传闻，据调研了解，目前约半数钢厂表示有收到通知，剩余多 数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。（Mysteel） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on aluminum and lithium sectors while being less bullish on steel names, indicating a preference for aluminum and lithium investments [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for steel supply reform, anticipates a near-term bottom for lithium prices, and expects potential corporate actions from aluminum companies in China [1]. - It highlights that aluminum and lithium stocks have performed well, while steel stocks have lagged behind, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [1]. - The report ranks the sectors in the following order: aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The aluminum sector is viewed as undervalued relative to mid-term fundamentals, with expectations for a re-rating driven by a cap on smelting capacity and improved margins [2]. - Shareholder return policies from companies like Hongqiao and Chalco are generating investor interest, with Chalco initiating share buybacks [2]. Steel - The anticipated steel supply reform has been delayed, with internal communications between local governments and steel mills ongoing [6]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a decline in pig iron output of approximately 3% year-over-year in May 2025, contrasting with a 4% increase reported by MySteel [6]. Lithium - The report suggests that lithium prices are nearing a short-term trough at Rmb60,000 per ton, with expectations of production cuts to stabilize the market [8]. - Investors are concerned about the potential restart of suspended supply if prices rebound to Rmb70,000 per ton, alongside ongoing capacity additions in the pipeline [8].

30 June 2025, 16:00 CET ArcelorMittal (’the Company’) has today filed its 2024 Payments to governments in respect of extractive activities report, which provides a consolidated overview of payments made by the Company and its subsidiaries in 2024 to governments regarding its mining operations. The report, which complies with reporting requirements under Luxembourg law, is available for download from https://corporate.arcelormittal.com/corporate-library. ENDS About ArcelorMittal ArcelorMittal is one of the w ...

The UK will limit the growth of tariff-free steel imports to guard against a rush of products being redirected from the US https://t.co/dz4NJkX3Tb ...

Group 1 - Friedman Industries has been added to the Russell 3000 Index, effective June 30, 2025, enhancing its market visibility and attracting investor capital [1][7] - The company aims to increase institutional ownership and improve capital inflows following its recent listing on Nasdaq in April 2025 [1][7] - Membership in the Russell 3000 Index also includes automatic inclusion in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and relevant growth and value style indexes, which are widely utilized by investment managers [1][7] Group 2 - Friedman Industries is headquartered in Longview, Texas, and operates manufacturing plants in multiple states, including Arkansas, Alabama, Indiana, Illinois, and Texas [2] - The company has two reportable segments: flat-roll products and tubular products, with specific operations detailed for each segment [2]

Trade Policy - China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless-steel products [1] - The anti-dumping duties apply to stainless-steel products imported from Indonesia, among other countries [1]