先声药业 (02096. HK) 化学制药 买入 (维持) 评级: 分析师:穆奕杉 执业证书编号：S0740524070001 Email: muys@zts.com.cn 基本状况 分析师:祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email: zhujq@zts.com.cn 分析师:曹泽运 执业证书编号: S0740524060002 Email: caozy01@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 2,474.70 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2.474.70 | | 市价(港元) | 13.01 | | 市值(百万港元) | 32.195.82 | | 流通市值(百万港 | 32,195.82 | | 元) | | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 118% 750 相关报告 1、《创新转型成效显著,自研管线 国际化可预期》 2025-04-05 2、《神经+肿瘤+自免三栖,产品矩 阵升级+研发创佳绩》 2025-02-24 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | -- ...

Company Overview - 博瑞医药 (Borui Pharmaceutical) is located in Suzhou Industrial Park, Jiangsu Province, and was established on October 26, 2001. The company went public on November 8, 2019. Its main business involves the research and production of high-end generic drugs and original new drugs [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 3, the stock price of 博瑞医药 was 89.41 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 37.8 billion CNY. The stock has increased by 197% year-to-date but has seen a decline of 14.85% over the last five trading days and 21.57% over the last 20 days [1]. - The trading volume on September 3 was 605 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.57% [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, 博瑞医药 reported a revenue of 537 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 18.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.17 million CNY, down 83.85% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 246 million CNY, with 129 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 9,568, a decrease of 10.11% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 11.32% to 44,185 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 3.25 million shares, a decrease of 1.06 million shares from the previous period. 新进股东 (Innovation Drug) is the tenth largest shareholder with 2.81 million shares [3].

Group 1: Overall Performance Review - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a decline in revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.50% in Q1 2025 and 3.06% in the first half of 2025, indicating a narrowing decline compared to Q1 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the pharmaceutical sector fell by 9.60% in Q1 2025 and 12.50% in the first half of 2025, with the decline accelerating [1] - The CRO/CMO, medical services, home devices, and high-value consumables sectors showed dual growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Chemical Pharmaceuticals - The chemical pharmaceutical sector saw a revenue decline of 2.05% in H1 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 4.69% [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the chemical pharmaceutical sector decreased by 2.54%, increased by 6.05%, and increased by 2.81%, respectively [2] - The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue decline of 1.56% and a net profit increase of 3.46%, with significant impacts from leading companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical [3] Group 3: CXO Sector - The CXO sector faced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with respective decreases of 4.0% and 24.5%, but the decline rate slowed down [4] - In H1 2025, the CXO sector showed a recovery trend with revenue growth of 14.8% and net profit growth of 81.9% [5] - The sector's gross margin began to stabilize, and net profit margins improved due to internal adjustments and market recovery [5] Group 4: Raw Materials - The raw materials sector experienced a revenue decline of 6.89% and a net profit decline of 12.94% in H1 2025, primarily due to supply-demand changes and pricing adjustments [6] - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit continued to decline, with respective decreases of 8.60% and 27.94% [6] - The sector is expected to recover as supply-demand dynamics improve and companies pursue integration and transformation strategies [6] Group 5: Medical Devices - The medical device sector faced significant pressure in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit declines of 7.18% and 19.43%, respectively [10] - Q2 2025 results showed a further decline in revenue and net profit, with respective decreases of 7.60% and 26.02% [11] - The sector is anticipated to improve in Q3 2025 as bidding processes recover and policy pressures ease [11] Group 6: IVD Sector - The IVD sector faced challenges in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit declines of 14.87% and 41.53%, respectively, due to policy impacts [12] - The sector is expected to see gradual improvement in the second half of 2025 as the effects of previous policies diminish [13] Group 7: Low-Value Consumables - The low-value consumables sector experienced a decline in gross and net profit margins in H1 2025, with significant impacts from geopolitical factors [14] - The sector's overall performance was affected by tariffs and market conditions, leading to a decrease in profitability [14]

Group 1 - Huazhong Securities has been approved to issue subordinate corporate bonds with a total face value of no more than 10 billion yuan [1] - Jinbei Automotive plans to invest 240 million yuan to establish an automotive industry investment fund focusing on electrification, intelligence, and low carbon [1] - Linyang Energy is expected to win a bid for a 244 million yuan metering equipment project from Southern Power Grid [1][2] Group 2 - Renfu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has received drug registration certificates for two products, including a medication for acute hypotension [3][4] - Nanjing Steel plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1186 yuan per share [5][6] - Pairui Co. has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xi'an Power Electronics Research Institute to develop power devices [7][8] Group 3 - Haixing Electric is expected to win a bid for a 214 million yuan metering equipment project from Southern Power Grid [9][10] - Kuangda Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a continued suspension of its stock [11][12] - Samsung Medical is expected to win a bid for a 274 million yuan metering equipment project from Southern Power Grid [13][14] Group 4 - Jiukang Bio has obtained a medical device registration certificate for a specific diagnostic kit [15][16] - Hechuan Technology's minority shareholder plans to transfer a 13% stake in a subsidiary [17][18] - DiAo Micro has launched a new eUSB2 repeater product for various electronic applications [19][20] Group 5 - David Medical's electric surgical table registration application has been accepted [21][22] - Hangxin Technology plans to apply for a total of 280 million yuan in bank credit [23][24] - Liyuan Technology's non-independent director has resigned [25][26] Group 6 - Ningbo Construction's subsidiary has won a construction project bid worth 729 million yuan [27][28] - Huaren Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has received approval for a raw material drug [29][30] - Suwen Electric plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares [31][32] Group 7 - Solar Energy has received 1.692 billion yuan in renewable energy subsidies [33][34] - Wangli Security has obtained a patent for a new lock structure [35][36] - Zhejiang Energy's vice chairman has resigned due to age reasons [37][38] Group 8 - Beilu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has passed GMP certification in Brazil [39][40] - Zhejiang Communications has a subsidiary that is expected to win a highway project bid [41][42] - Xinzhi Group has received a government subsidy of 11.1978 million yuan [43][44] Group 9 - Dong'an Power's engine sales in August increased by 3.44% year-on-year [45][46] - Baiyun Mountain's subsidiary has passed the consistency evaluation for two generic drugs [47][48] - Yipin Hong's subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate for a specific injection [49][50] Group 10 - Far East Holdings' subsidiary has won multiple contracts totaling 1.689 billion yuan [51][52] - Good Housekeeping's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3.5 million shares [53][54] - Guanghong Technology's shareholders have set a transfer price of 23.33 yuan per share [55][56] Group 11 - Keli Sensor plans to acquire 45% of Huahong Technology's shares for 122 million yuan [57][58] - Jianmin Group's furosemide oral solution has been approved for market launch [59][60] - Jinghua Laser's directors plan to reduce their holdings by up to 143,420 shares [61][62] Group 12 - Zhuyue Group is planning a share transfer that will change its controlling shareholder [63][64] - Terid has pre-bid for two projects totaling approximately 698 million yuan [65][66] - Zhonghuan Hailu is planning a change in control, leading to a continued suspension of its stock and convertible bonds [67][68] Group 13 - Great Wall Motors reported August sales of 115,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.33% [69][70] - Guizhou Tire's controlling shareholder has committed not to reduce holdings for 12 months [71][72] - San Da Membrane's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares [73][74] Group 14 - Chint Electric has decided to terminate the spin-off of its subsidiary for listing [75][76] - Jusaylong's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of the company's shares [77][78]

Group 1: 恒瑞医药 - Company received approval for clinical trials of HRS-7172 tablets, a new anti-tumor small molecule inhibitor [1] - Subsidiary received approval for SHR-A2009, an antibody-drug conjugate targeting HER3 [1] - Company was established in April 1997, focusing on drug research, production, and sales [1] Group 2: 康德莱 - Controlling shareholder plans to transfer 5% of shares to strategic investor at a price of 10.81 yuan per share, totaling 236 million yuan [1] - Post-transfer, controlling shareholder's stake will decrease from 39.58% to 34.58% [1] - Company was established in July 1998, specializing in medical devices [2] Group 3: 中钢洛耐 - Shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% of total shares due to fund exit needs [3] - Company was established in August 2006, focusing on high-end refractory materials [3] Group 4: 瑞玛精密 - Subsidiary completed acquisition of land in Mexico for production operations, covering 52,300 square meters at a price of 3.4064 million USD [4] - Company was established in March 2012, specializing in precision metal stamping and related products [4] Group 5: 鸿博股份 - Company confirmed normal operations despite stock price fluctuations exceeding 20% over three trading days [5] - Company was established in June 1999, focusing on lottery services and high-end packaging [6] Group 6: 东芯股份 - Company completed stock trading risk investigation and resumed trading [7] - Company was established in November 2014, specializing in storage chip design and sales [7] Group 7: 凯迪股份 - Company stated that its robot products are still in development and will not generate revenue in the short term [8] - Company was established in August 1992, focusing on linear drive systems [8] Group 8: 诺唯赞 - Major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% due to funding needs [9] - Company was established in March 2012, focusing on functional proteins and organic materials [9] Group 9: 君实生物 - Company received approval for clinical trials of JT118 injection, a "two-in-one" recombinant protein vaccine for monkeypox [10] - Company was established in December 2012, focusing on new drug research and related services [10] Group 10: 赛力斯 - Company reported August sales of 45,818 vehicles, with a 19.57% increase in new energy vehicle sales [11] - Company was established in September 2012, focusing on automotive research and sales [11] Group 11: 燕东微 - Major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% due to management needs [13] - Company was established in October 1987, focusing on semiconductor products and services [13] Group 12: 中百集团 - Company reported cumulative litigation and arbitration amounts of approximately 262 million yuan over the past 12 months [14] - Company was established in January 1990, focusing on retail business [14] Group 13: 金开新能 - Company received 939 million yuan in renewable energy subsidies, with a 341.67% increase year-on-year [15] - Company was established in March 1997, focusing on renewable energy development and operation [15] Group 14: *ST天茂 - Company plans to terminate stock listing and initiate cash option mechanism for shareholders [16] - Company was established in November 1993, focusing on various insurance services [16] Group 15: 宁德时代 - Company repurchased 8.69 million A-shares for a total of 2.131 billion yuan [17] - Company was established in December 2011, focusing on battery research and production [17] Group 16: 山西高速 - Controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by 30 to 60 million yuan [18] - Company was established in February 1996, focusing on highway management [18] Group 17: 青岛银行 - Major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 233 to 291 million shares [19] - Company was established in November 1996, focusing on banking services [19] Group 18: 格力电器 - Major shareholder completed share increase of 46.38 million shares for 2.099 billion yuan [20] - Company was established in December 1989, focusing on air conditioning production and sales [20] Group 19: 中国石油 - Company plans to transfer 541 million A-shares to China Mobile Group to enhance strategic cooperation [21] - Company was established in November 1999, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production [21] Group 20: 镇洋发展 - Company announced a merger plan with Zhejiang Huhangyong Highway Co., with a share exchange ratio of 1:1.08 [22] - Company was established in December 2004, focusing on chemical products [22]

Company Overview - Hanyu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is located in Longhua District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and was established on April 2, 2003. The company was listed on April 7, 2011. Its main business involves chemical pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with 100% of its revenue coming from the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry [1]. Stock Performance - As of September 3, Hanyu Pharmaceutical's stock price decreased by 2.02%, trading at 26.16 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 23.106 billion CNY. The stock has increased by 102.95% year-to-date, with a 0.19% increase over the last five trading days, an 11.79% increase over the last 20 days, and a 53.88% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on August 4, where it recorded a net purchase of 545 million CNY [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hanyu Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 549 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 114.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 145 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1504.30% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 417 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 9.95% to 63,000, with an average of 11,841 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 3.98% from the previous period [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth largest, holding 7.6817 million shares, which is a decrease of 386,400 shares compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow as of September 3 include: Yanshan Technology (2.424 billion), Unisplendour (1.400 billion), Sungrow Power (0.539 billion), and others [1] - Yanshan Technology experienced a price increase of 10.04%, with a capital inflow of 2.424 billion [2] - Unisplendour saw a price rise of 6.64% and attracted 1.400 billion in capital [2] Group 2 - Sungrow Power had a price increase of 6.98% with a capital inflow of 0.539 billion [2] - Jishi Media reported a price rise of 9.94% and received 0.466 billion in capital [2] - Heng Rui Medicine experienced a 4.14% increase in price with a capital inflow of 0.417 billion [2] Group 3 - The stock with the highest capital inflow, Yanshan Technology, is categorized under Internet Services [2] - Other notable sectors include Photovoltaic Equipment (Sungrow Power), Cultural Media (Jishi Media), and Chemical Manufacturing (Heng Rui Medicine) [2][3] - The banking sector, represented by Agricultural Bank, saw a slight decline of 0.28% with a capital inflow of 0.170 billion [3]

9月2日，常山药业跌4.27%，成交额15.65亿元。两融数据显示，当日常山药业获融资买入额1.35亿元， 融资偿还1.19亿元，融资净买入1535.82万元。截至9月2日，常山药业融资融券余额合计19.85亿元。 融资方面，常山药业当日融资买入1.35亿元。当前融资余额19.85亿元，占流通市值的4.44%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，常山药业9月2日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元； 融券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年50%分位水平，处于较高位。 资料显示，河北常山生化药业股份有限公司位于中国(河北)自由贸易试验区正定片区正定县高新技术产 业开发区南区梦龙街71号，成立日期2000年9月28日，上市日期2011年8月19日，公司主营业务涉及肝素 系列产品的研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：水针制剂47.47%，肝素原料药39.24%，其他 13.29%。 截至8月29日，常山药业股东户数4.95万，较上期减少6.20%；人均流通股18525股，较上期增加6.61%。 2025年1月-6月，常山药业实现营业收入4. ...

北京成泉资本管理有限公司（简称"成泉资本"）于2015年7月在北京注册成立，注册资本5000万元。 成 泉资本由资产管理行业名将、原中信证券执行总经理胡继光先生创立。胡继光先生历史投资业绩优秀， 具有28年证券、期货投资经验，经历了中国股市所有的牛熊市转换，见证了新中国资本市场的诞生与成 长。公司投研团队核心成员均来自国内最知名的大型证券公司和国内最具有影响力的研究机构，投资及 研究经验丰富、投资风格稳健、市场敏锐度极高、风险控制能力出色。团队核心成员共事多年、配合默 契，具有成熟的投资理念、共同的企业文化和强大的团队凝聚力。半数投研成员为公司创始合伙人，愿 景目标一致。 成泉资本拥有专业精深的投资研究能力、开放协作的企业文化、合作共赢的利益机制以 及完善的风险控制和基础设施，坚持以客户为中心，以客户资产保值增值为己任，致力于实现客户、员 工、股东多方共赢，成为国内资本市场上有重要影响力、受人尊敬的一流专业投资机构。 成泉资本， 成就您的财富梦想！ 调研纪要：公司2025年1-7月累计生猪销量294.52万头，预计全年出栏500-550万头。2025年上半年，"公 司+农户"模式出栏198.87万头，占肥猪出 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the supply-side reform across various industries, highlighting a slower capacity reduction compared to previous reforms. The overall capacity and inventory cycles for non-financial enterprises in the second quarter remain at the bottom, indicating a need for time and policy accumulation for recovery [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Capacity Assessment**: Analysts evaluate supply capacity using three dimensions: current supply capacity (capacity utilization rate and inventory), future supply changes (expansionary capital expenditure), and industry profitability (gross margin and proportion of loss-making enterprises) [4][5]. - **Manufacturing Sector**: - Industries such as construction, chemicals, and coke are categorized as "three lows" (low capacity utilization, low inventory, low expansionary capital expenditure), indicating low production willingness and limited future production capacity, accelerating capacity clearance [6]. - In contrast, cyclical products like textile chemicals, glass fiber, and fluorochemicals show profit growth, particularly fluorochemicals [6]. - Manufacturing areas like inverters, silicon materials, and silicon wafers are performing well, while lithium batteries and photovoltaic cell components are at the left-side bottom [6]. - **Consumer Goods Sector**: Chemical pharmaceuticals and clothing/home textiles are performing well, while traditional Chinese medicine is positioned in the middle to later stages of the left side [6]. - **TMT Sector**: Electronic chemicals, integrated circuit manufacturing, and security equipment are in relatively good positions, with no observed left-side bottom industries [2][6]. Additional Important Insights - The current supply-side framework is based on listed company data, reflecting the latest industry conditions as of the second quarter. The introduction of anti-involution policies has led to some positive factors across industries, but the overall situation remains at the bottom, requiring further time and policy efforts for noticeable changes [3]. - The assessment of supply capacity includes measuring capacity utilization through fixed asset turnover ratios and inventory through cumulative year-on-year comparisons over the past decade [4][5]. - Continuous tracking of data across different sectors is essential for making accurate judgments regarding potential investment opportunities and risks [6].