来源：围棋投研 今天有很多同行都期待着收盘，想看看上证指数有没有罕见的十连阳，结果是做到了十连阳，不过收盘 略微下跌。 坦白说，我倒不是很关心指数，因为近期市场太过于结构化，不同投资者的体验感是天差地别，基本和 指数涨跌无关。 先说最兴奋的一群人，在我的接触范围里，就是商业航天和机器人投资者。 商业航天被誉为真正的星辰大海，一纸《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，上面支持商业化 关键期的火箭企业能够加快上市，再次把行情推向高潮。 有人说，商业航天看不到业绩啊！没错，但市场要的就是没有业绩，这样就更有想象空间，"宇宙人"不 算估值，只需要相信人类的新未来。 当然，卖方机构肯定不能这样说，不然显得特别不专业。怎么办呢？就是狂摁计算器，努力算出远期的 市场规模和业绩，尽量去解释得通。 就以光伏板块为例，市场给到"太空光伏"的测算如下： 有计算出万亿市场规模的，大概逻辑是10万颗卫星*单颗用50平方*单平2万元=1000亿，叠加马斯克规 划的每年新增100GW太空算力，直接突破万亿规模； 有直接算出3倍市值空间的，算法是未来3年马斯克SpaceX每年发射星舰145次*每次80颗卫星*每颗800 万价值量*30% ...

AIDC：本周液冷板块情绪持续冲高，在确定性的行业趋势和国内头部企业带动的份额渗透趋势下，市场估值预期切换 至远期业绩，坚定看好国内企业在全球液冷市场后续地位提升所带来的板块投资机会。 电网：1）思源电气与宁德时代签署三年合作备忘录彰显储能领域战略投入，3 年 50GWh 合作规模有望形成显著业绩贡 献，进一步打开成长空间，维持重点推荐；2）国网输变电设备 6 批招标 132 亿元，前 6 批招标 919 亿元，同比+26%， 主网建设稳步推进;3）11 月变压器/高压开关出口 8/5 亿美元，同比+16%/+37%,看好海外电力设备需求长周期高景气。 氢能与燃料电池：发改委针对绿氢氨醇规划再落一子，"需求牵引供给"夯实氢能产业基础，"灰氢替代"瞄准存量市 场、"绿色船燃"卡位增量赛道，融入现代基础设施体系，氢能有望获得长期、稳定的战略投入和系统性政策支持。 本周重要行业事件： 风光储：上交所发布商业火箭企业上市标准；能源局发布 11 月风光新增装机；三部委印发首批国家级零碳园区名单； 发改委、能源局印发《电力中长期市场基本规则》、《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》；市监总局在安徽合 肥对光伏行业开展价 ...

产业提速，拐点明晰，商业航天后续投资机会展望 20251225 摘要 商业航天板块年底迎来主题投资机会，行业基本面拐点确定，长期想象 空间巨大，受益于海外卫星概念催化及 SpaceX 上市预期。 本轮商业航天行情由太空算力中心概念驱动，市场对短期业绩容忍度提 升，关注卫星侧高弹性及抗通缩标的，如载荷侧天线（臻雷、铖昌、灿 勤、通宇信科）、电源平台和星间链路等新基建。 第五卫星项目涉及多种化工材料，陶瓷管壳市场潜力巨大，单颗卫星价 值量约 100 万元，未来市场空间可达百亿元级别，国瓷材料在该领域发 展迅速，毛利率高。 商业航天为建筑行业带来转型机会，上海港湾、东珠生态和中衡设计等 公司已在卫星能源管理系统、卫星相关业务和火箭厂房项目上有所突破。 机械制造板块在商业航天中主要集中于发射场设备、耗材制造以及火箭 与卫星结构件制造，关注安徽合力（火箭导流板）、恒立液压（起竖油 缸）、中集安瑞科（低温液氧储罐）和海兰股份（制氧制氮设备）。 Q&A 2025 年商业航天行业的基本面情况如何？ 从产业基本面角度来看，预计整个商业航天产业链将在 2027 年左右迎来拐点。 然而，从 2025 年至 2026 年，发热量同比 ...

Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment industry requires close attention to the "space photovoltaic" theme, which is linked to Sino-US strategic competition and low-orbit resource contention, potentially accelerating faster than emerging industries like nuclear fusion and robotics [1] - Google's "Project Suncatcher" aims to establish a space data center, highlighting the central role of space photovoltaics in commercial aerospace [1] Photovoltaic Equipment Industry - The photovoltaic industry index (931151) tracked by the 50ETF (159864) includes listed companies involved in solar photovoltaic power generation, covering the entire industry chain from upstream materials to downstream applications, reflecting the overall performance of related securities [1] - The index exhibits high growth potential and policy orientation, effectively representing the comprehensive development level of the photovoltaic industry [1] Wind Power Equipment - The demand for offshore wind power in Europe continues to rise, with Poland's 3.4GW tender being realized, and it is expected that the annual grid connection scale in Europe will exceed 14GW from 2031 to 2032, accelerating the release of supply chain orders for piles and submarine cables [1] Lithium Battery Industry - The price of lithium carbonate has surpassed 110,000 yuan per ton, with spot inventory below 110,000 tons, and prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [1] Power Grid Equipment - Exports of overseas power transformers have increased by 52% year-on-year, with domestic companies accelerating their transformation towards a "capital + capacity + service" comprehensive overseas strategy [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the "Space Photovoltaics" sector, emphasizing its high potential due to the unique energy supply needs in commercial space endeavors [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of "Space Photovoltaics" as a critical energy source for various space applications, including low Earth orbit satellites and future lunar bases, driven by the urgency of U.S.-China competition and limited orbital resources [1][5]. - The report also expresses optimism for the wind power sector, particularly following Poland's successful auction for 3.4GW of offshore wind projects, which is expected to accelerate order releases in the coming years [2][10]. - The hydrogen and fuel cell sector is gaining traction, with significant contracts for green ammonia as a marine fuel, indicating a growing market for sustainable energy solutions [12][13]. Summary by Sections Space Photovoltaics - The report emphasizes the necessity of solar energy in space applications, likening its importance to electricity supply for AI computing [1][5]. - The potential for rapid fundamental catalysts in this sector is noted, suggesting it may outpace other emerging industries like nuclear fusion and robotics [1][5]. Wind Power - Poland's recent auction for 3.4GW of offshore wind capacity is expected to enhance visibility for long-term European offshore wind demand, with annual grid connection capacities projected to exceed 14GW by 2031-2032 [2][9]. - The report anticipates accelerated releases of orders for components such as piles and subsea cables due to this growing demand [2][10]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - A major shipping company has secured a long-term contract for 15.8 million tons of green ammonia, validating its use as a marine fuel and highlighting the commercial viability of green hydrogen solutions [12][13]. - The report notes the comprehensive capabilities of Chinese companies in the green ammonia supply chain, from production to certification and logistics [13]. Lithium Battery Sector - Ford has terminated a significant battery supply agreement with LG Energy, reflecting shifts in electric vehicle demand expectations and policy adjustments [17][18]. - The report indicates a strong upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, with futures contracts surpassing 110,000 yuan/ton, driven by supply constraints and limited inventories [17][41]. AIDC and Liquid Cooling - The report highlights a surge in sentiment within the AIDC sector, driven by significant partnerships and the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic companies in enhancing their positions in the global liquid cooling market, suggesting a favorable outlook for investment opportunities [20][21]. Electrical Equipment and Grid - The report discusses the planned H-share issuance by a key electrical equipment company, aimed at enhancing R&D and international expansion, which is seen as a critical milestone for the company's growth strategy [22][23]. - It highlights the expected growth in demand for electrical transformers and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, driven by ongoing upgrades in the global power grid [22][23].