1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. Given that the current fundamentals have not substantially improved, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The glass futures are also in a volatile trend. Although the market has rebounded due to policy and pre - holiday factors, the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against [6][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market in China was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased as some plants resumed production, while downstream demand was stable with mainly rigid procurement. The pre - holiday stockpiling had limited impact on the market. Soda ash futures first declined and then rose. Due to the unchanged fundamentals, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and subsequent attention should be paid to inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash market continued to be narrowly volatile last week with limited price fluctuations and light trading. Supply was abundant, demand was weak, and inventory remained high. The futures market oscillated downward. It was expected to remain weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday stockpiling. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market was narrowly volatile last week with regional price differentiation. Supply increased slightly, demand was stable but not strong enough, and inventory pressure was acceptable. The futures first declined and then rose, but the high inventory restricted the rebound space. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of fundamentals. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1200 - 1350 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), and the production cost of the ammonia - soda process in North China [11][15][17]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 26.7, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is - 34.8, indicating a small outflow of main - force funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 81.3, suggesting a relatively high risk of market reversal [20]. 3.2 Glass Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The domestic float glass market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy benefits and pre - holiday rush work drove up prices, leading to increased sales and reduced inventory. However, terminal demand remained weak. Glass futures first declined and then rose, with the short - term trading logic shifting to supply contraction expectations. But the fundamental support is insufficient, and the risk of sentiment decline should be guarded against. The recommended strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market was narrowly volatile last week, with some regional price increases. Downstream demand was mainly rigid procurement, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. Regional inventory performance varied, and overall, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Futures first rose and then fell. It was expected to continue the weak - volatile pattern in the short - term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass spot market first stabilized and then rose last week. Policy and pre - holiday rush work promoted price increases and inventory reduction, but terminal demand was still weak. Futures rebounded sharply due to production - capacity control policies, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [32]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include weekly data on China's float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存 [35][38][41]. - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is - 78.7, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 62.5, indicating a large outflow of funds; and the multi - empty divergence is 90.2, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [46].

欧盟委员会：预测2025/26年度欧盟玉米可用产量为5680万吨，而上个月的预测为5760万吨；预测 2025/26年度欧盟玉米进口量为1880万吨，与上月预测持平。 USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至9月23日当周，约26%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周 为25%，去年同期为25%。 美国农业部发布的周度出口销售报告显示，截至2025年9月18日当周，2025/26年度美国玉米净销售量为 1923400吨，高于一周前的1231600吨，也高于市场预期。 美国玉米主产州未来6-10日88.89%地区有较高的把握认为气温将高于正常水平，44%地区有较高的把握 认为降水量将低于正常水平。 本周五（9月26日），粳稻期货主力合约保持不变，截止发稿，粳稻主力报2758.00元/吨。 市场资讯： ...

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 65826 | 192 | 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政策利率已处于可应对通胀与就业风险的适当位置，并不急于大幅降息。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（9月26日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计65826千克，今日仓单较上 一日增加192千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周五（9月26日）黄金期货开盘价854.00元/克，截至目前最高859.04元/克，最 低850.74元/克。截止发稿报856.06元/克，涨幅0.01%，成交量为270430手，持仓为264305手，日持仓减 少2324手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 美联储理事米兰则支持一次性0.50%的降息，并指出若剔除临时关税效应，通胀已接近2%目标。受此影 响，市场对年内降息的押注下调至约33%。 近期乌克兰总统泽连斯基警告称，若不加以遏制，俄罗斯将继续加剧冲突规模与强度。 俄方的空袭频率与规模已显著增加，并扩展至白天时段。这种局势增加了市场对避险资产的需求，在一 定程度上限制了银价的下跌空间。 ...

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.99% to 16.29 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.15% to 66.27 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures declined by 1.66% to $6,931.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures increased by 0.94% to 371.20 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market experienced a mixed performance on September 25, with most main contracts closing lower, while some commodities saw slight gains [1] Group 2 - In terms of price movements, vegetable oil and vegetable meal increased by nearly 1%, while low-sulfur fuel oil also rose close to 1% [1] - On the downside, butadiene rubber and No. 20 rubber fell by over 2%, while rubber, coking coal, and coking coke dropped by more than 1%. Methanol decreased by nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on September 24, with raw sugar futures declining by 0.19% to 16.12 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures fell by 0.75% to 66.14 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures increased by 0.66% to $7038.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures surged by 5.31% to 368.75 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of $3,815.7 and an intraday high of $3,824.6 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks did not provide a clear path for interest rate cuts, but the market interpreted them as supportive of further easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Christopher Wood, global equity strategist at Jefferies, believes that despite strong gold performance year-to-date, there is still more upside potential in the coming months [2] - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, will likely intensify expectations for further rate cuts, which is a positive factor for gold prices [2] Group 3 - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [3] - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by $0.05 at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during intraday trading [3] - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [3]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on September 22, with raw sugar futures down 1.80% at 15.85 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.06% to 66.25 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell significantly by 3.74% to $6,972.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a slight increase of 0.48% to 368.25 cents per pound [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary welcomed the approval of three warehouses in Yuen Long by the London Metal Exchange (LME) as recognized warehouses, supporting the government's push for commodity trading policies outlined in the Chief Executive's 2025 Policy Address [1] - The total number of recognized warehouses in Hong Kong has increased to 11, enhancing the city's position as a key delivery hub for the LME in Asia [1] - The government plans to implement additional measures to develop commodity trading, including the establishment of a Commodity Strategy Committee and tax incentives for commodity traders [1] Group 1 - The approval of the three warehouses marks strong industry support for the government's commodity trading policy direction [1] - The inclusion of Hong Kong in the LME's global warehouse network has occurred within nine months, with a total of 11 recognized warehouses now operational [1] - The new warehouses will provide efficient delivery options for international metal trading and promote the development of maritime and other services in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The government aims to enhance the overall layout for long-term development by coordinating soft and hardware measures [1] - The LME began accepting applications for warehouse operators to store LME-registered metals in January of this year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips in moderation [9]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are gradually tightening, and its price is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. - The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term. Recently, the oil price is oscillating, and it is advised to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt will both increase, and its price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [17]. - The upside space of PVC is expected to be limited in the near term [19]. - Coking coal still maintains a relatively strong trend [20]. - Urea is still building a bottom in oscillation, with a chance of rebound later, but the loose pattern has not reversed [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 19, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Container shipping to Europe dropped 6%, PX and PTA fell over 2%, and SC crude oil, bottle chips, and staple fiber dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, industrial silicon rose over 3%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and caustic soda, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and rapeseed oil rose over 1% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 (IF) rose 0.55%, the main contract of SSE 50 (IH) rose 0.34%, the main contract of CSI 500 (IC) rose 0.34%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 (IM) fell 0.21% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.13%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.21%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.77% [7]. - As of 15:17 on September 19, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2512 inflowed 2.922 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2512 inflowed 1.823 billion yuan, and iron ore 2601 inflowed 816 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai copper 2510 outflowed 867 million yuan, SSE 50 2512 outflowed 537 million yuan, and polysilicon 2511 outflowed 284 million yuan [7]. Specific Futures Analysis Shanghai Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened low and moved high. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [9]. - As of September 12, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the RC fee was -4.16 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable [9]. - Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October. Currently, the profitability of small and medium-sized smelters is under pressure, and the supply of refined copper remains tight [9]. - In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly [9]. - Currently, it is approaching the peak season. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak season expectations still needs to be observed [9]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, with an increase of 6,633 tons compared with last week. The import volume has increased, and the high price has suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high today. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in an oscillating manner [10]. - On the supply side, affected by the mine license, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite raw materials has dropped to 15%. Spodumene has gradually become the most important raw material for lithium carbonate. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is at a relatively high level year-on-year [11]. - On the demand side, the total domestic demand for lithium carbonate in August reached 102,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.49%. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the customer collection in the first half of September increased by 1.2% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 8.8% compared with the second half of August. The orders in the first half of September increased by 2.0% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 16.6% compared with the second half of August. Before the double festivals, the downstream restocking sentiment has improved [11]. Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly more than expected, but refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, alleviating the previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the operating rate of US refineries has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [12]. - On September 7, eight OPEC+ countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, which will be implemented starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner [12]. - This will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil again. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel [12]. - Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [12]. - The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end. The weak US non-farm payrolls data has made the market worried about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term [12]. - Recently, the previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil [12]. - Trump said that Putin was disappointing and urged countries to stop buying oil from Russia, but at the same time said that the oil price needed to be further lowered to force Russia to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12]. - In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of supply increase [12]. - Israel launched an attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week decreased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 34.4%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The asphalt operating rate has decreased slightly and is still at a relatively low level in recent years [14]. - According to Longzhong Information data, the expected asphalt production in China in September is 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons, an increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, an increase of 34.1% [14]. - This week, the operating rates of various downstream industries of asphalt have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 1.69 percentage points month-on-month to 30.31%, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [14]. - This week, North China has mainly executed previous contracts, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The national shipment volume has increased by 31.10% month-on-month to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level [14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries has decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [14]. - The US has allowed Chevron to resume oil production in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount of asphalt raw materials purchased by China [14]. - Next week, the devices of Dongming Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng, etc. will operate stably, and Henan Fengli has a plan to resume production. The asphalt production will increase. The weather in the north is okay, and many projects are rushing to work. However, the rainfall in some southern areas has increased, and the funds are restricted. The market is cautious, which affects the demand for asphalt [14]. - Recently, the crude oil futures price has oscillated narrowly, and the cost support for asphalt is limited [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving has increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 43.6%, and the plastic weaving orders have continued to increase slightly, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [15]. - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical restarted. The operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to about 81%, at a neutral and relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawn yarn has dropped to about 28.5% [15]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [15]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [15]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 450,000 tons per year of the second line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production at the end of August, and another production line of 450,000 tons per year of the first line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production in early September. Recently, the number of overhaul devices has decreased slightly [15]. - The weather has improved, and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rate of plastic weaving continues to increase. Most downstream industries of PP are expected to continue to rise. The pre-holiday restocking of the downstream may bring some boost, but the current peak season demand is lower than expected, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement [15]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the PP industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [16]. Plastic - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as Jinghai Chemical's HDPE restarted. The operating rate of plastic has increased to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level [17]. - The downstream operating rate of PE has increased by 0.75 percentage points month-on-month to 42.92%. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season. The orders for agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. The orders for packaging film have also increased, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [17]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [17]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into production at the end of July, and the operating rate of plastic has increased [17]. - The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, the prices of agricultural film in various regions are stable, and the subsequent demand will further increase. The agricultural film enterprises are continuously restocking before the double festivals, the orders are gradually accumulating, and the operating situation has improved slightly, which may bring some boost, but the current peak season is not as good as expected [17]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the plastic industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [17]. PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region has continued to increase by 25 yuan per ton [18]. - Currently, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC has decreased by 2.98 percentage points month-on-month to 76.96%. The operating rate of PVC has decreased and dropped to a neutral and relatively high level in the same period over the years [18]. - During the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate of PVC has continued to increase and has begun to exceed the same period last year, but it is still lower than other years [18]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has raised its quotation in September by $10 - 25 per ton. On August 14, India announced the latest anti-dumping duty on imported PVC, of which the duty on the Chinese mainland has been raised by about $50 per ton. The export expectation of Chinese PVC in the second half of the year has weakened [18]. - However, after the recent decrease in export prices, the export orders have strengthened month-on-month [18]. - This week, the social inventory has continued to increase and is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large [18]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year-on-year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion have further decreased [19]. - The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased month-on-month and is still near the lowest level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate market still needs time [19]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC has increased this week and is still relatively high [19]. - In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons per year production capacity has been put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons per year production capacity is expected to be stably produced at the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons per year production capacity was put into production in early September, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons per year production capacity is in the trial production stage in September [19]. - The anti-involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is still no actual policy in the PVC industry. Most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [19]. - The cost support for PVC has strengthened, and the downstream has restocked before the festival. However, the devices of Heilongjiang Haohua, Gansu Jinchuan, etc. will resume production next week. The basis of PVC is relatively low, and the upside space of