Commodity Market Overview - Soybean futures rallied over $11 per bushel, gaining 9.31% in October, forming a bullish key reversal on the monthly chart [1] - Corn futures increased by 3.85%, surpassing $4.30 per bushel, also forming a bullish key reversal [7] - Wheat futures rose 5.12%, moving from under $5 to over $5.30 per bushel, narrowly missing a bullish key reversal [8] Precious Metals Performance - Platinum declined by 1.89% in October, while palladium led with a 13.03% gain [3] - Gold and silver futures posted gains of 3.18% and 3.26% respectively, despite correcting from all-time highs of $4,398 and $53.765 per ounce [4][5] Other Commodities - FCOJ fell over 28%, and world sugar futures dropped more than 13% in October [6][13] - Copper recovered by 4.79%, while lumber futures fell by 8.84% due to elevated long-term interest rates [12] Energy Sector Insights - Natural gas futures were over $4.12 per MMBtu at the end of October, with January 2026 delivery prices settling at $4.369 per MMBtu [16] - U.S. natural gas inventories were 0.8% above last year's level and 4.6% over the five-year average [18] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. stock market continued to rally, but the ongoing government shutdown poses potential risks to the economy [20] - The dollar index rose by 2.24%, which may create mixed signals for commodity prices [14]

【导读】黄金、白银突发跳水 黄金、白银突发跳水！ 10月21日下午，贵金属期货集体跳水。 现货黄金一度失守4250美元/盎司，截至发稿时跌2.06%；COMEX黄金期货价格短线下挫，现跌2.02%。 瑞银判断，黄金投资需求将得到进一步强化，叠加各国央行购金高位运行，预计今年全球黄金需求约4850吨，为2011年以来最高。若私人投资者效仿央 行，将美债持仓分散至黄金，现货金价或获额外上行推力。 COMEX白银期货失守49美元/盎司，日内跌5.36%。 此外，NYMEX钯金期货主力大跌5.71%，最新报1449.5美元/盎司。 NYMEX铂金期货主力大跌5.16%，最新报1567美元/盎司。 消息面上，央视新闻报道，据美国《华尔街日报》10月20日报道，一名美国国防部官员称，当天有约200名美军人员正在以色列建立一个协调中心，用于 监督加沙地带停火情况。 据报道，该中心将负责推进人道主义援助、后勤和安全援助进入加沙地带。国际合作伙伴预计将于未来几天到几周内抵达，协助协调工作。报道称，该中 心将通过侦察无人机和国际组织等信源收集加沙地带的实时情况信息，美军高官帕特里克·弗兰克将领导这项工作。 此外，在中美贸易预期缓 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Precious metal futures experienced a significant drop on October 17, with silver falling over 6%, marking its largest decline in six months. Gold also saw a sharp decline after reaching a historical high, dropping below $4200 per ounce [2][3]. - COMEX silver futures closed down over 5% at $50.63 per ounce, while NYMEX platinum futures fell more than 7%, erasing gains from the previous two trading days [3][5]. - NYMEX palladium futures dropped over 9%, closing at $1516 per ounce [9]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - Concerns regarding geopolitical issues, trade tensions, and the quality of U.S. credit have eased, leading to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold and silver [7]. - HSBC's recent report indicates that gold remains supported by strong investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions, predicting that structural and macro factors will drive gold prices higher through 2026. However, they caution that fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than expected could hinder gold's upward trajectory [7].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals futures experienced a significant drop, with silver, palladium, and platinum all plummeting [1][2] - On October 17, silver futures fell over 5%, closing at $50.63 per ounce, while palladium futures dropped over 9% to $1516 per ounce [3][4] - Platinum futures also saw a decline of over 7%, erasing gains from the previous two trading days [5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The decline in precious metals is attributed to easing concerns over geopolitical tensions, trade issues, and the quality of U.S. credit, leading to reduced safe-haven demand for gold and silver [5] - HSBC's recent report indicates that gold remains supported by strong investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions, predicting a continuation of upward trends in gold prices until 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal futures experienced a significant drop, with silver, palladium, and platinum seeing sharp declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][11]. Price Movements - On October 17, precious metal futures continued to decline, with spot silver dropping over 6%, marking its largest decline in six months. Spot gold, after reaching a historical high, suddenly fell below $4200 per ounce [3]. - COMEX gold closed at $4267.90, down $36.70 (-0.85%); COMEX silver closed at $50.63, down $2.67 (-5.01%); NYMEX platinum closed at $1629.80, down $125.30 (-7.14%); NYMEX palladium fell over 9% to $1516 [4][7][9]. Market Sentiment - The decline in precious metals is attributed to easing concerns over geopolitical tensions, trade issues, and the quality of U.S. credit, which has reduced the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [11]. - HSBC's recent report indicates that gold remains supported by strong investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions, predicting a continuation of upward trends in gold prices until 2026. However, it warns that fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than expected could hinder gold's upward trajectory [11].

Core Insights - Spot gold has historically broken through the $3,800 mark, reaching a peak of $3,811 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 44.9% [1] - Spot silver prices have surpassed $47 per ounce, achieving a 14-year high with a year-to-date increase of 61.8%, exceeding the increase in gold prices during the same period [1] - Platinum prices have surged even more dramatically, with platinum futures reaching a high of $1,649 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 84% [1]

Group 1 - Platinum is becoming a new focus for central bank reserve asset diversification amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties and challenges to the dollar credit system [1] - As of now, platinum futures prices have increased by over 50% this year, significantly outpacing the 33% rise in COMEX gold futures [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects a 10% year-on-year increase in global platinum demand, reaching 70.7 tons by Q1 2025 [1] Group 2 - There has been a noticeable increase in discussions regarding central banks purchasing platinum as a reserve asset, although no official announcements have been made yet [2] - The approval from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not seen as a barrier; the inclusion of platinum in central bank reserves could reshape the global precious metals market and provide a new path for de-dollarization [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is progressing towards the listing of platinum futures, addressing the lack of effective domestic price hedging mechanisms for related enterprises and traders [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum - group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. Their resource distribution is concentrated, and the supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure, which is easily affected by various factors [1][14]. - The platinum - group metal industry chain includes upstream mining, mid - stream processing and recycling, and downstream terminal applications and investment. Each link has its own characteristics and development trends [14]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in different terminal applications varies. For example, palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The application of platinum and palladium in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [41][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview 3.1.1 Natural Properties - Platinum (Pt) and palladium (Pd) are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs) along with ruthenium, rhodium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth [1]. - Platinum has a high melting point, good ductility, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, high density, and is chemically inert. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium has a relatively lower melting point, can adsorb gases like hydrogen, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [2][4]. 3.1.2 Distribution and Classification of Platinum - Group Resources - Platinum - group metals exist in nature in the form of natural elements and complex ores. Platinum deposits are generally related to ultramafic rocks and can be formed through magma action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [5]. - Platinum - group metal ores can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits. The primary deposits can be further divided into vein platinum deposits mainly composed of platinum - group metals and copper - nickel - type deposits hosted in ultrabasic rocks [5]. - Global platinum - group metal resources are mainly concentrated in five regions: South Africa's Bushveld Complex, Russia's Norilsk - Talnakh region, the US's Stillwater Complex, Zimbabwe's Great Dyke, and Canada's Sudbury [11]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain 3.2.1 Upstream Mining - The platinum - group metal supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure. Most of the raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers [14]. - In 2024, the global PGMs resource was estimated to exceed 100,000 tons, and the reserves exceeded 81,000 tons. South Africa's PGMs reserves were 63,000 tons, accounting for nearly 80% of the global total [21]. - The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks due to factors such as resource oligopoly, declining ore grades, rising mining costs, and strict environmental policies. In 2024, the global palladium mine production was 190 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65%, and the platinum mine production was 170 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [25]. 3.2.2 Platinum - Group Material Supply and Recycling - Global precious metal multinational groups such as Umicore, Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, and Tanaka dominate the platinum - group metal material processing and recycling fields [30]. - As high - grade resources become scarce, secondary resources of platinum - group metals are becoming increasingly important. However, domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition, and the supply of secondary resources is becoming increasingly tight [30]. 3.2.3 Terminal Applications - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: Palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The choice of platinum - group metals in catalysts depends on catalytic effect, cost - effectiveness, availability, and exhaust emission standards [41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is more suitable for high - end jewelry markets due to its high density, good ductility, and chemical stability. Palladium has limited use in jewelry due to its hardness and tendency to darken [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in chemical industry, glass manufacturing, electronics, medical, hydrogen energy, and other fields. Their application in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [46][48]. 3.2.4 Investment Channels - Platinum can be invested in through physical products (platinum bars, platinum coins), financial products (platinum futures contracts, platinum ETFs), and platinum - related stocks. The investment demand for platinum is increasing, especially in the context of high gold prices [50].

Group 1 - The article discusses the unusual signals being emitted by platinum and copper, indicating a potential misalignment in the metals market [1] - It highlights the contrasting trends in platinum and copper prices, suggesting that while copper is experiencing a bullish trend, platinum is facing downward pressure [1] - The analysis points out that the divergence in price movements may reflect broader economic conditions and investor sentiment towards industrial metals [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these metals as indicators for future market trends and investment opportunities [1] - It suggests that the current state of platinum and copper could influence investment strategies in the commodities sector [1] - The piece concludes by urging investors to pay close attention to the developments in these metals to better understand market dynamics [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data shows a mixed picture with some indicators stable, some improving, and others declining, while geopolitical and trade - related events are creating uncertainties in various markets [1][2][3] - The bond market is under pressure from short - term factors, and there are different outlooks for different segments of the bond market [25][31] - The stock market is performing strongly, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rising, and there are significant developments in related policies and corporate events [35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1] - Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, slightly up from the previous month [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 50.5%, also slightly up [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22870 billion yuan, up from the previous year [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month [1] - PPI in May 2025 was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from the previous month [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment - Trump plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries and specific industries, which has affected the copper market [3][20] - Global gold ETFs had significant inflows in H1 2025, with North America being the main contributor [4][5] - Deutche Bank is optimistic about the platinum market in 2026 [5] 3.3 Financial News - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 8, resulting in a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan [15] - China and Hong Kong announced three measures to optimize the opening - up of the bond market [17] - Some rating companies may simplify credit rating reports [18] 3.4 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year [35] - The China Securities Association plans to revise the management method for the professional reputation information of the securities industry [36] - Northbound capital increased its holdings in some industries in Q2 2025 [36]