1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The platinum market has reversed its situation and rebounded, while the palladium market has also shown an upward rebound [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 493.10 with a -0.88% change; gold exchange platinum was at 495.06 with a 1.10% change; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1962.30 with a 3.67% change; London spot platinum (previous day) was 1947.60 with a 2.56% change. Palladium futures 2606 was 361.40 with a 1.15% change; RMB spot palladium was 343.00 with a 4.89% change; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1483.50 with a 4.95% change; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1482.50 with a 5.33% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 7,748 kg, up 1,848 kg from the previous day, and the position was 22,242 kg, up 88 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 19,343 kg, down 4,280 kg, and the position was 75,331 kg, up 2,816 kg. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 2,900 kg, up 143 kg, and the position was 8,769 kg, up 40 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 12,507 kg, up 858 kg, and the position was 46,030 kg, down 171 kg [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum ETF position (previous day) was 3,045,275 ounces, down 1,047 ounces. Palladium ETF position (previous day) was 1,041,712 ounces, down 6,485 ounces. NYMEX platinum inventory (previous day) was 541,249 ounces, down 12,992 ounces. NYMEX palladium inventory (previous day) was 247,765 ounces, down 708 ounces [2] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 - PT2606 spread was 1.96, up 9.81 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 - 2610 spread was 3.20, up 0.20; the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 6.11, down 0.05. The spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 4.02, down 16.37. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 18.40, up 11.90; Guangzhou palladium 2606 - 2610 spread was 2.70, up 2.90; the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 4.55, up 0.05. The spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was - 11, down 14.56 [2] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 99.86, down 0.32%. The US dollar against RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91, down 0.05%; the US dollar against offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.92, up 0.22%; the US dollar against RMB (6M forward) was 6.80, down 0.20% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 1, and palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] - **News Events**: Reuters survey shows that OPEC's March production hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic. The US Customs is advancing a new tariff refund system with a processing time of up to 45 days. Buffett said that the stock market valuation is still not attractive, he sold Apple too early, and his current cash and equivalents are about $350 billion. The CFTC enforcement director said that combating insider trading using improper information in the prediction market and energy market manipulation are priorities. Regarding the Iran situation, there are multiple events such as the Iranian president's statement, the deployment of the US "Bush" aircraft carrier, the killing of an Iranian military advisor, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's plan to strike relevant enterprises, and statements from the US defense secretary, Russian ambassador, Trump, and the Iranian foreign minister [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Platinum has reversed its situation and rebounded, while palladium has also rebounded upwards [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 493.10 with a -0.88% change. The gold exchange platinum price was 495.06 with a 1.10% increase. The New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1962.30 with a 3.67% increase. The London spot platinum (previous day) was 1947.60 with a 2.56% increase. The palladium futures 2606 price was 361.40 with a 1.15% increase. The New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1483.50 with a 4.95% increase, and the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1482.50 with a 5.33% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: For Guangzhou platinum (kg), the trading volume was 22,242, an increase of 7,748 from the previous day, and the position was 88. For NYMEX platinum (kg), the trading volume was 19,343, a decrease of 4,280 from the previous day, and the position was 75,331, an increase of 2,816. For Guangzhou palladium (kg), the trading volume was 2,900, an increase of 143, and the position was 8,769, an increase of 40. For NYMEX palladium (kg), the trading volume was 12,507, an increase of 858, and the position was 46,030, a decrease of 171 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,045,275, a decrease of 1,047. Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,041,712, a decrease of 6,485. The inventory of Guangzhou platinum (kg) was 541,249, and NYMEX platinum (ounces, previous day) decreased by 12,992. The inventory of Guangzhou palladium (kg) was not provided, and NYMEX palladium (ounces, previous day) was 247,765, a decrease of 8 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of PT9995 to PT2606 was 1.96, a decrease of 7.85 from the previous day. The spread of Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 3.00. The spread of Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 2.70, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous day [2]. - **Macro - related Data**: The dollar index was 99.86 with a -0.32% change. The dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.91 with a -0.05% change, and the dollar - to - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.92 with a 0.22% change. The dollar - to - RMB (6M forward) was 6.80 with a -0.20% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [4]. - **Other News**: OPEC's March production hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic. The US customs is promoting a new tariff refund system with a processing time of up to 45 days. Warren Buffett said the stock market valuation is not attractive, he sold Apple too early, and his current cash and equivalents are about $350 billion. The CFTC is focused on combating insider trading in the prediction market and market manipulation in the energy market. There are multiple developments in the Iran situation, including statements from the Iranian president, military deployments, and threats of attacks [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the impact of the geopolitical situation on the market is gradually digested, if the gold ETF holdings stop falling and rebound, indicating improved confidence of allocation funds, one can try to go long on dips in the range of $4400 - $4500, and pay attention to the stage resistance of the 20 - day moving average [1] - In the short term, with the easing of the US - Iran war, silver is expected to stabilize above $70 along with gold. One can seize the opportunity for a band - up move with boosted market sentiment, and the upper resistance is at $85 [1] - Platinum's price is rising in the central range of $1850 - $2015, and palladium is oscillating above $1400. Since palladium has a relatively weaker fundamental, the long position on the platinum - palladium ratio can continue to be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.51% (5.22 yuan) from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.37% (419 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan/gram on March 31, down 0.88% (4.40 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan on March 31, up 1.15% (4.10 yuan) from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4699.60 on March 31, up 3.51% (159.20) from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 75.35 on March 31, up 7.36% (5.16) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 1962.30 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.67% (69.40) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1488.50 on March 31, up 5.31% (75.00) from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4669.13 on March 31, up 3.45% (155.61) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 75.11 on March 31, up 7.24% (5.07) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 1950.00 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.34% (63.00) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1448.00 on March 31, up 1.26% (18.00) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1015.68 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.67% (6.72 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18031 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.68% (471 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 495 yuan/gram on March 31, up 1.10% (5 yuan) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.42, up 1.50 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 had a change, and the 1 - year historical quantile was 60.60% [1] - Another basis was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold had a change [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 62.37 on March 31, down 3.59% (2.32) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 56.28 on March 31, down 1.81% (1.04) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32 on March 31, down 1.56% (0.02) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 31, down 2.01% (0.03) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30 on March 31, down 1.1% (0.05) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79 on March 31, down 0.8% (0.03) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00 on March 31, down 2.0% (0.04) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 09.88 on March 31, down 0.62% (0.62) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879 on March 31, down 0.41% (0.0285) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kilograms on March 31, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 368667 on March 31, down 1.54% (5760) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 31533901 on March 31, down 0.01% (2604) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 327820669 on March 31, up 0.07% (231248) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts was 16563243 on March 31, down 0.33% (55291) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts was 76429739 on March 31, up 0.53% (404881) from the previous value [1] - SPRD gold ETF holdings was 1047 on March 31, up 0.11% (1.15) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings was 15274 on March 31, down 0.09% (14.08) from the previous value [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Platinum and Palladium Futures Daily Report 2026/3/31 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current market's main contradictions revolve around the repeated situation between the US and Iran, disturbances in oil prices and inflation expectations, and pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Platinum and palladium prices are mainly affected by gold and silver prices and macro - expectations, with platinum performing slightly better than palladium [2]. - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the year - end above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces, with the inventory buffer continuing to shrink. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged [2]. - The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may become a new source of palladium demand in the future, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts, with a relatively single structure and long - term suppression from the increase in electric - vehicle penetration and recycling supply [2]. - Market volatility may remain high. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually build long positions in platinum on dips. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1,800 per ounce and $1,300 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum主力合约收盘价: 493.10 yuan/gram, palladium主力合约收盘价: 361.40 yuan/gram, up 3.20 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约持仓量: 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; palladium主力合约持仓量: 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 495.06 yuan/gram, up 5.41 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 341.00 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约基差: 1.96 yuan/gram, up 4.61 yuan; palladium主力合约基差: - 20.40 yuan/gram, up 8.80 yuan [2]. 3.3供需情况 - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4宏观数据 - Dollar index: 100.51, up 0.32; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.04%, down 0.44%; VIX volatility index: 30.61, down 0.09 [2]. 3.5行业消息 - US President Trump has indicated to his staff that he is willing to end the US military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, which may extend Tehran's influence in the key waterway and postpone the complex task of reopening the strait [2]. - Trump said that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran to end the military operation. He threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that in the context of the energy shock caused by the US - Israel war against Iran, the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact. But he warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said that in the context of major disruptions to the supply chain caused by the Middle East conflict, the current interest - rate level is in a favorable position. Fed Governor Milan continued to call for an interest - rate cut, believing that policymakers should ignore the current increase in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact, and still thinks the interest rate can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2]. 3.6重点关注 - March 31, 22:00: US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [2] - March 31, 21:00: US January S&P House Price Index [2] - April 1, 20:15: US March ADP Employment Number [2] - April 1, 22:00: US March ISM Manufacturing PMI [2] - April 2, 20:30: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 [2] - April 2, 20:30: US February Trade Balance [2] - April 3, 20:30: US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold rose 1.46%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver rose 3.41%, the main contract of platinum rose 0.16%, and the main contract of palladium rose 0.89% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the risk of safe - haven, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain deadlocked; the US employment is strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump issued a new warning; Iran said the US peace proposal was "unrealistic". The Houthi armed forces "joined the war", more US troops arrived in the Middle East, the risk of the Iran war expanding increased, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell said that the Fed could "wait and see" how the war affects inflation and there was no need to take action for the time being. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war made the policy outlook highly uncertain, expecting inflation to rise, the unemployment rate to remain stable, and to cut interest rates once this year. The probability of interest rate hikes reversed, and the bet on interest rate cuts was postponed to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields were under pressure at high levels [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4540.40 per ounce, up 0.42% from the previous day and 2.95% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4529.15 per ounce, up 0.56% from the previous day and 1.41% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day and 4.11% from the previous week. The closing price of the Gold T + D was 1015.68 yuan per gram, up 0.67% from the previous day and 3.85% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex gold was 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 180,433 lots, down 0.29% from the previous day but up 12.83% from the previous week. The position of Gold TD was 45,964 lots, down 2.40% from the previous day and 2.91% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% from the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,000 tons, down 1.58% from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons, up 1.82% from the previous day and 1.35% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Gold futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotai Junan, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Yunchang Futures [3]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $70.18 per ounce, up 0.59% from the previous day and 1.24% from the previous week. The London silver price was $70.75 per ounce, up 4.36% from the previous day and 5.24% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18,126 yuan per kilogram, up 2.37% from the previous day and 6.09% from the previous week. The closing price of the Silver T + D was 18,031 yuan per kilogram, up 2.68% from the previous day and 5.04% from the previous week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex silver was 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,615,825 lots, up 3.07% from the previous day and 13.90% from the previous week. The position of Silver TD was 2,818,488 lots, down 0.76% from the previous day and 3.21% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.39% from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 10,188 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. The Shanghai Silver inventory was 369 tons, up 0.75% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 37,916 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Silver futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotou Futures, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Chezheng Futures [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2,113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day but down 3.47% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2,118.00 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day but down 0.66% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day but down 1.75% from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day but down 1.82% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and 5.91% from the previous week. The total NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1,620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day but down 5.37% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1,601.00 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and 2.97% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day but down 3.73% from the previous week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and 0.53% from the previous week. The total NYMEX palladium inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and 19.79% from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, the discount rate was 3.75%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,708.36 billion. M2 increased by 4.88% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.64%, the US dollar index was 100.51, and the US Treasury yield spreads and interest rate differentials between the US and other countries showed certain changes [9]. - **US Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.40%, the month - on - month CPI was 0.50%, the year - on - year core CPI was 2.50%, the month - on - month core CPI was 0.40%, the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.83%, the year - on - year core PCE price index was 3.06%, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.80%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.20% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.10%, the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 0.70%, the unemployment rate was 4.40%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, the labor participation rate was 61.90%, the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, and other labor market and economic indicators showed corresponding changes [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 4.09 million units, new home sales were 480,000 units, and new home starts were 1.043 million units [9]. - **US Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales increased by 2.08% year - on - year and 0.03% month - on - month, personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.25% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month, the personal savings rate was 4.50%, the industrial production index increased by 1.44% year - on - year and 0.15% month - on - month, and other consumption and industrial indicators showed corresponding changes [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports increased by 9.68% year - on - year but decreased by 17.23% month - on - month, imports decreased by 26.33% year - on - year but increased by 2.30% month - on - month, and the trade deficit was - $54.5 billion [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the ISM services PMI index was 56.10, the Markit manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the Markit services PMI index was 51.10, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.30, the small business optimism index was 98.80, and the US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,308.50 tons, the US's were 8,133.46 tons, and the world's total was 36,458.24 tons [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounted for 21.13%, and the RMB accounted for 2.12% [11]. - **Gold to Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: China's ratio was 8.34%, and the US's was 81.98% [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 181.40, the VIX index was 30.61, the CRB commodity index was 371.29, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9215 [11]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from April 29, 2026, to December 8, 2027, is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, geopolitical risks boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, weakening the liquidity premium of precious metals and hitting the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. Gold prices will face adjustment pressure until the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility [4]. - In the medium - term, affected by factors such as international trade chaos, a gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, the oil fiscal crisis in the Middle East leads to gold selling, and high oil prices cause central bank tightening concerns, which weaken the liquidity premium of precious metals and hit the industrial demand expectations of industrial precious metals. In March, London gold rebounded to around $4,500 per ounce after adjusting to $4,100 per ounce. Before the Middle East oil crisis is completely resolved, gold prices will face adjustment pressure, and the adjustment range of industrial precious metals is relatively larger. London gold shows support around $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce. It is recommended to trade gold with an interval operation idea and consider a hedging strategy of going long on gold and short on industrial precious metals while reducing positions and increasing position flexibility. This week, pay attention to the Iran war situation, US March employment data, global March PMI data, and the Fed Chairman's speech [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed Chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. International trade turmoil and Middle East geopolitical risks have increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Affected by multiple factors, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. It is recommended that investors continue to hold a bullish view while controlling positions, and long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, while short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Risks**: The risk of the Iran war expanding has increased. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked Israel for the first time since the outbreak of the war, and the US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The US has only destroyed about one - third of Iran's missile arsenal, and the situation of another one - third is unclear [17]. - **Shipping Restrictions**: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has banned shipping to or from ports of Israel's allies and supporters, and the Hormuz Strait is closed [17]. - **Central Bank Statements**: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged due to the US - Iran conflict and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson warns that the long - term high inflation rate in the US may turn the commodity shock caused by the Iran war into a more serious problem [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.28%, Shanghai Silver up 2.80%, platinum up 2.66%, and palladium up 0.61%. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, volatile at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1] - In the short - term, there are risks of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. The risk of the Iran war expanding is rising, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed will maintain the interest rate this month, indicating high uncertainty in the policy outlook due to the Iran war. The probability of an interest - rate hike within the year has increased, and the bet on interest - rate cuts has been postponed to 2027 [1] - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of a global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $4521.30 per ounce, up 3.30% from the previous day; London gold was at $4504.15 per ounce, up 1.07%. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1014.88 yuan per gram, up 1.62% [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 180,953 lots, up 7.02% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4] - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $69.77 per ounce, up 2.41% from the previous day; London silver was at $67.80 per ounce, up 0.75%. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,707 yuan per kilogram, up 1.25% [4] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 3,508,275 lots, up 3.63% from the previous day. The total visible inventory was 37,948 tons, down 0.33% [4] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are necessary [6] - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97%. Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% [7] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX platinum active contract positions were 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day. NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons, unchanged [7] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - losses/take - profits are required [8] - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04%. Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% [8] - **Position and Inventory**: NYMEX palladium active contract positions were 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day. NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% [8] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are 6,708.36 billion US dollars. The M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.88% [9] - **Inflation in the US**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.83%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.06% [9] - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 2.10%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is 0.70%. The unemployment rate is 4.40% [9] - **US Labor Market**: The monthly change in non - farm employment is - 92,000, the labor participation rate is 61.90%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80% [9] - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales are 4.09 million units, new home sales are 480,000 units, and new home starts are 1.043 million units [9] - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 2.08%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate is 5.25%, and the personal savings as a proportion of disposable income is 4.50% [11] - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year growth rate is 1.44%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.29% [11] - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year growth rate is 9.68%, imports year - on - year growth rate is - 26.33%, and the trade balance is - 54.5 billion US dollars [11] - **US Economic Surveys**: ISM manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, ISM services PMI index is 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI index is 52.40, and Markit services PMI index is 51.10 [11] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2,308.50 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,458.24 tons [11] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Proportion**: The US dollar accounts for 56.32%, the euro accounts for 21.13%, and the RMB accounts for 2.12% [11] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 335.15, the VIX index is 31.05, the CRB commodity index is 368.91, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9184 [11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 350 - 375 range is relatively high in the near - term, but the probability of a rate cut gradually increases over time [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market volatility may remain at a high level. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are currently difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum long positions on dips. The London platinum should pay attention to the support level of $1800 per ounce, and the London palladium should focus on the support level of $1300 per ounce [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 497.50 yuan/gram, up 12.90 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 357.30 yuan/gram, up 2.15 yuan. The main contract position of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands, while that of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 489.65 yuan/gram, up 12.61 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 329.00 yuan/gram, down 2.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 0.29 yuan/gram, and that of the palladium main contract decreased by 4.15 yuan/gram to - 28.30 yuan/gram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00 to 3003.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5.00 tons to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 tons to 261.60 tons, while that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27.00 tons to 287.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.28 to 100.18, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.05 percentage points to 2.13%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 3.61 to 31.05 [2] Industry News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict is intense and stalemated. The US plans a ground operation in Iran, and the number of US troops in the Middle East exceeds 50,000. Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession, with Moody's model showing a 48.6% probability in the next 12 months and Goldman Sachs raising it to 30%. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 97.9% [2] Fundamental Analysis - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory at the end of the year may drop to 2.613 million ounces. The medium - term supply of platinum remains tight. The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts, and its structure is relatively single [2] Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the latest price, trading volume, position, inventory, spread, and exchange rate data of platinum and palladium, as well as macro and industry news, and indicates the trend strength of platinum and palladium [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 487.40 with a -3.65% decline; gold - exchange platinum was at 484.55 with a -4.88% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1813.30 with a -5.06% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) was 1818.50 with a -5.54% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 353.35 with a -4.12% decline; RMB spot palladium was 337.00 with a -2.60% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1365.00 with a -6.44% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1359.00 with a -3.45% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai platinum (kg) was 5,515, a decrease of 2,933 from the previous day, and the position was 21,460. NYMEX platinum (kg) had a trading volume of 22,967, a decrease of 6,931, and a position of 63,467, an increase of 39,795. The trading volume of Shanghai palladium (kg) was 3,404, a decrease of 2,240, and the position was 8,574. NYMEX palladium (kg) had a trading volume of 13,829, an increase of 2,883, and a position of 45,433, an increase of 323 [1] - **ETF Position Data**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,067,478, a decrease of 18,005. Palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,049,605, a decrease of 6,308 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai platinum (kg) inventory remained unchanged; NYMEX platinum (ounces) (previous day) was 573,753, a decrease of 5,521. Shanghai palladium (kg) inventory remained unchanged; NYMEX palladium (ounces) (previous day) was 248,374, unchanged [1] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was -2.85, a decrease of 6.42 from the previous day; Shanghai platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.50, a decrease of 2.80; buying Shanghai platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 6.04, a decrease of 0.22. Shanghai platinum main contract to London platinum spread (considering VAT) was 31.47, an increase of 7.70. RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was -16.35, an increase of 6.20. Shanghai palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was -0.65, a decrease of 0.85; buying Shanghai palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 4.45, a decrease of 0.18. Shanghai palladium main contract to London palladium spread (considering VAT) was 13, a decrease of 3.48 [1] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 99.88, an increase of 0.77%. The US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.90, an increase of 0.13%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.90, an increase of 0.14%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.81, a decrease of 0.02% [1] Macro and Industry News - The European Parliament voted to pass the EU - US trade agreement [4] - Maduro appeared in court in New York again, and his request to dismiss the case was rejected [4] - The US lifted sanctions on more than a dozen Belarusian entities [4] - Pakistan said that its actions against Afghanistan were ongoing [4] - The EU plans to introduce new fees for small packages entering the EU [4] - US media reported that the US Department of Defense is considering diverting military aid to Ukraine to the Middle East [4] - Turkey sold 22 tons of gold in a single week, the largest single - week decline since 2018 [4] - A Turkish oil tanker carrying Russian oil was attacked in the Black Sea, and the Turkish Foreign Ministry said it reserved the right to take necessary measures [4] - The Pakistani Foreign Ministry announced that the suspension of military operations against Afghanistan had ended, and the operations were still ongoing [4] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength: -1; Palladium trend strength: -1. The trend strength value ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals faced downward pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 0.28%, Shanghai Silver down 0.85%, Platinum down 4.78%, and Palladium down 5.23% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has eased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - Iran is considering the US cease - fire proposal but has no intention to negotiate. Trump said that the US - Iran negotiation has made progress, and the media reported that the US has submitted a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran [1]. - In February, US import prices had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained interest rates this month, stating that the Iran war makes the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027 [1]. - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; Palladium's short - term demand remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly oscillating in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4503.30 per ounce, up 0.63% from the previous day and down 6.65% from last week; London gold was at $4564.55 per ounce, up 3.42% from the previous day and down 6.27% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 995.98 yuan per gram, down 1.77% from the previous day and down 6.22% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 989.77 yuan per gram, down 2.43% from the previous day and down 6.84% from last week [2]. - Other data: Comex gold open interest was 411388 lots, Shanghai Gold main contract open interest was 170696 lots, Gold T + D open interest was 45964 lots; LBMA gold inventory was 9210 tons, Comex gold inventory was 1000 tons, Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 105920 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1066.99 tons; Shanghai Gold registered warehouse receipts were 105 tons [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $71.45 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and down 5.27% from last week; London silver was at $73.17 per ounce, up 4.57% from the previous day and down 6.91% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17472 yuan per kilogram, down 3.53% from the previous day and down 2.85% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 17292 yuan per kilogram, down 4.57% from the previous day and down 3.88% from last week [4]. - Other data: Comex silver open interest was 114758 lots, Shanghai Silver main contract open interest was 3299850 lots, Silver T + D open interest was 2872224 lots; LBMA silver inventory was 27065 tons, Comex silver inventory was 10227 tons, Shanghai Silver inventory was 370 tons, Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was 301 tons, and the total visible inventory was 37955 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 9301 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings were 15513.67 tons; Shanghai Silver registered warehouse receipts were 362495 kilograms [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6][7]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.47% from last week; London platinum was at $2118 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day and down 0.66% from last week; Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day and down 1.75% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day and down 1.82% from last week [7]. - Other data: NYMEX platinum open interest was 34868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and down 5.91% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory was 19 tons; CFTC managed - fund net long position was 7239 lots [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day and down 5.37% from last week; London palladium was at $1601 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and down 2.97% from last week; Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day and down 3.73% from last week [8]. - Other data: NYMEX palladium open interest was 14847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and up 0.53% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and up 19.79% from last week; CFTC managed - fund net long position was - 362 lots [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit was 3.75%, discount rate was 3.75%, reserve balance interest rate was 3.65%, Fed total assets were $67071.04 billion, M2 year - on - year growth was 4.88%, 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.62%, US dollar index was 99.64, US Treasury yield spreads (3 - month to 10 - year) was - 0.11, US Treasury yield spreads (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.60, US - EU yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 1.74, US - China yield spread (10 - year Treasury) was 3.05 [9]. - US inflation data: CPI year - on - year was 2.40%, CPI month - on - month was 0.50%, core CPI year - on - year was 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month was 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year was 2.83%, core PCE price index year - on - year was 3.06%, 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.40%, 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.20 [9]. - US economic growth data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.10%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 0.70, unemployment rate was 4.40%, non - farm payrolls monthly change was - 9.20 million, labor force participation rate was 61.90%, average hourly wage growth was 3.80%, weekly working hours were 34.30, ADP employment was 6.30 million, initial jobless claims were 20.50 million, job openings were 711.00 million, Challenger job cuts were 4.83 million [9]. - US real estate market data: NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 409.00 million units, new home sales were 48.00 million units, new home starts were 104.30 million units [9]. - US consumption data: Retail sales year - on - year growth was 2.08%, retail sales month - on - month growth was 0.03%, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.25%, personal consumption expenditure month - on - month growth was 0.38%, personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was 4.50 [10][11]. - US industrial data: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 1.44%, industrial production index month - on - month growth was 0.15%, capacity utilization rate was 76.29%, new orders for durable goods were $792.65 billion, new orders for durable goods year - on - year growth was 5.34% [11]. - US trade data: Exports year - on - year growth was 9.68%, exports month - on - month growth was - 17.23%, imports year - on - year growth was - 26.33%, imports month - on - month growth was - 2.30, trade balance was - $54.5 billion [11]. - US economic survey data: ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.40, ISM services PMI was 56.10, Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.40, Markit services PMI was 51.10, University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 55.50, small business optimism index was 98.80, US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's was 2308.50 tons, the US's was 8133.46 tons, and the world's was 36458.24 tons [11]. - IMF foreign exchange reserve proportion: US dollar was 56.32%, euro was 21.13%, RMB was 2.12%, global was 25.94% [11]. - Gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio: China's was 8.34%, the US's was 81.98% [11]. - Geopolitical risk index was 335.15, VIX index was 25.33, CRB commodity index was 356.41, offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8943 [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate remaining in the 375 - 400 range in April 2026 is 93.8%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest - rate ranges gradually increases [13].