12月29日，在全球市场波动加大的背景下，CWG Markets外汇留意到，比特币价格强势运行在90000美 元上方，成为近期金融市场中最受关注的资产之一。整体来看，市场情绪更多受到风险偏好变化和资金 流向影响，而并非单一事件驱动。随着能源价格回升、通胀预期抬头，具备稀缺属性和长期价值预期的 资产重新获得投资者关注。 从盘面结构观察，比特币的上涨具有明显的带动效应。数据显示，比特币单日涨幅超过2%，而以太 坊、XRP、Solana等主流加密资产普遍上涨3%以上，显示资金并未局限于单一品种，而是呈现出板块性 回暖特征。CWG Markets外汇认为，这种同步走强，往往意味着市场风险承受能力有所提升，也反映出 投资者对数字资产整体前景的信心增强。 进一步来看，CWG Markets外汇认为，当前市场更倾向于围绕"风险分散"和"资产保值"两大核心逻辑展 开布局。在不确定性因素反复出现的环境下，投资者往往会同时配置传统资产与新兴资产，以平衡组合 波动。这也解释了为何在商品价格回升的同时，加密资产并未承压，反而表现出较强的独立性。 综合判断，比特币站稳90000美元关口具有一定的心理意义，但更重要的是其背后反映出的资金 ...

铂金的国际期货价格于12月23日首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。随着金价上涨，价格联动性强的铂金因 价格偏低也吸引了大量资金流入…… 铂金被用于净化汽车尾气的催化剂。12月16日传出消息，预计欧洲将取消原则上禁止销售燃 油车的方针，这使得占总需求四成左右的汽车用途需求预期扩大。中国自11月起在广州期货 交易所（GFEX）启动了该国首个铂金期货交易，"由于中国国内的经济放缓，出于资产保值 需求等原因，铂金交易变得活跃起来"（Marketedge的负责人小菅努）。 随着金价上涨，价格联动性强的铂金因价格偏低也吸引了大量资金流入。由于铂金的市场规 模小于黄金，其价格波动也往往更不稳定。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 铂金的国际期货价格于12月23日首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。与同为贵金属、价格处于历 史高位的黄金相比，铂金价格偏低的优势受到市场关注。 作为国际指标的纽约期货价格在12月23日一度较前一个交易日上涨234.4美元（11％），达 到每盎司2323.8美元，创下最高值。这是2008年以 ...

12月15日，本周即将公布的多项重要经济数据成为市场关注焦点，包括因美国政府停摆而延迟发布的10 月及11月非农就业报告、平均时薪增速以及失业率数据。这些劳动力市场指标将为评估经济运行状态提 供关键参考，进而影响市场对美联储1月会议决策的预期。此外，周四将公布的最新通胀数据同样备受 瞩目，通胀走势的边际变化将直接关系到货币政策的后续走向。在数据发布前夕，部分交易者采取了相 对谨慎的仓位管理策略，这在一定程度上抑制了价格的单边波动幅度。 从资金流向角度分析，黄金交易所交易基金持续录得净流入，反映出机构投资者对贵金属配置需求的持 续性。各国央行购金行为同样构成了金价的结构性支撑因素，全球储备资产多元化趋势推动央行层面对 黄金的战略性增持。此外，部分投资者将资金从主权债券与货币市场转向贵金属的趋势有所延续，这一 现象与对冲通胀风险、规避汇率波动以及寻求资产保值的多元化需求密切相关。美元走势方面，美元指 数近期呈现震荡偏弱格局，十年期美债收益率回落至4%附近区间，均对以美元计价的黄金价格形成间 接支撑。 技术面：周初看黄金的强势延续性。早盘开盘，黄金在4300之上运行，很明显，黄金保持绝对的强势， 按照上周五的435 ...

#热点观察家# 一张泛黄的收据，五十克沉默的黄金，在四十年光阴里演绎了一场关于财富的静默博弈，结果出人意料。 近日，一位东北阿姨带着1984年的黄金购买凭证走进广东一家金店。泛黄的收据上清晰地记录着：50克黄金，每克47元，总价2350元。 店员惊叹"阿姨当年真有钱"，因为这笔钱在八十年代相当于普通工人近五年的工资。如今，金价已涨至每克约1000元，这批黄金市值约5万元，却仅相当于 如今一个普通城镇劳动者十个月左右的收入。 01 数字真相 黄金保值神话在工资增长面前显得黯然失色。这位阿姨的经历，是一个观察长期资产保值的独特案例。 1984年的2350元是一笔巨款。当时一名普通城镇职工的月工资大约在几十元，这笔钱需要省吃俭用攒上好几年，实际购买力极强，足以支付当时半套房产。 四十年后的今天，这批黄金市值约5万元。表面上看，黄金价格从每克47元涨到约1000元， 实现了约20倍的增长。但与工资增长对比，这个数字就失去了光 芒。 根据国家统计局数据，2025年前三季度全国居民人均可支配收入已达32509元。这意味着，当年需要一个人五年工资才能换来的黄金，如今其价值仅相当于 一个普通劳动者十个月左右的收入。 02 角 ...

段永平在访谈中力挺茅台，认为"有闲钱买茅台肯定比放银行好"，其核心逻辑在于茅台生意的可理解性与文化价值的稳定性。然而，若论及物理保值性与 价值增长的确定性，在高端消费品领域，JF球杆（JFLOWERS） 事实上展现出了比茅台更为突出和稳健的保值特性。 茅台的价值，很大程度上依附于其饮用的消耗性、品牌的抽象文化以及宏观消费环境。而JF球杆的保值，则建立在一套更"硬核"、更可量化的价值体系之 上： 1. 绝对的稀缺性与工艺留存：茅台可以持续酿造、扩产（尽管有限），但每一支顶级JF球杆都是独立编号的限量艺术品，由大师手工打造。其价值首 先凝结在物理实体——那些永不重复的木材纹理、贵金属镶嵌和极致打磨的工艺中。酒会被喝掉，而一支精品球杆可以被永久保存、传承，其物理 形态本身就在持续讲述稀缺故事。 2. 功能性与收藏性的完美统一：茅台的价值在使用（饮用）中消耗。而JF球杆既是顶级运动员竞技的利器，其性能价值已被职业赛场验证；同时，它 作为手工艺术品，收藏价值随岁月增长。"使用"不仅不折损其价值，反而因其传奇的比赛故事（如某场大赛冠军使用同款）而增添附加价值，这是 消耗型产品难以比拟的。 3. 独立于经济周期的圈层共识： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of low interest rates on bank deposits and suggests alternative investment strategies to preserve wealth in a low-yield environment [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - **Investing in Gold**: Gold is highlighted as a reliable asset for wealth preservation, especially during economic volatility and inflation. It is recommended to allocate 10% to 20% of bank savings into physical gold or recognized gold products like ETFs [3][4]. - **Quality Bank Stocks**: Investing in stable, dividend-paying bank stocks is compared to owning property in a prime location, providing both dividend income (4%-6% yield) and potential capital appreciation. This strategy is suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long-term investment horizon [4][5]. - **Core Real Estate Investments**: The article emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality properties in prime locations for long-term value retention. The focus should be on properties that can generate stable rental income and appreciate over time, requiring careful consideration of location and market conditions [7]. Group 2: Personal Development - **Investing in Self**: The article stresses the significance of personal development and acquiring financial knowledge as the most effective investment. Enhancing professional skills can lead to higher income, while understanding financial tools aids in making informed investment decisions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].

当美股市场再度掀起抛售潮，当AI泡沫引发估值担忧，当降息预期在数据迷雾中摇摆不定——我们突然意识到，在这个充满不确定性的时代，寻找真正保 值的资产，已成为每个人必须面对的课题。 JFLOWERS的保值逻辑：为什么"慢"反而更"值钱"？ 1. 极致的稀缺性 就在昨夜，纳斯达克指数一度暴跌近1.5%，恐慌指数VIX单日飙升13%。曾经备受追捧的科技股，如今正接受市场对基本面的"灵魂拷问"。而美联储降息概 率的剧烈波动，更让投资者意识到：所谓的"确定性"，原来如此脆弱。 当金融资产剧烈波动，什么才能真正穿越周期？ 就在全球资本市场经历震荡的同时，在台球器材领域，一个现象正引发深思：JFLOWERS手工球杆，正成为越来越多精明投资者的选择。 这不是偶然。 与股票、基金等金融资产不同，JFLOWERS球杆代表的是一种实物资产——它不随美联储的利率决议而波动，不因科技股的估值泡沫而贬值。相反，时间 的流逝，只会增加它的价值。 在不确定中寻找确定：JFLOWERS的资产属性 当美股投资者在降息预期中焦虑不安时，JFLOWERS的拥有者却在享受另一种安心： 每年仅限量生产约100支完整球杆 每支球杆耗费制杆师300-500小 ...

Core Insights - The significant increase in household deposits in China, amounting to 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflects a cautious outlook among residents due to slowing economic recovery and weakened corporate profitability [2][4] - Despite a stable Consumer Price Index (CPI) with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, the real purchasing power is diminishing due to excessive money supply, leading to hidden devaluation of currency [2][7] Group 1: Household Deposits and Economic Context - The total increase in RMB deposits reached 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for over half, averaging nearly 9,000 yuan per person [5] - The growth rate of M2 at 8.4% significantly outpaces the growth of disposable income, indicating that the expansion of money supply dilutes the value of currency [5][7] - The low interest rates on savings, with three-year fixed rates dropping below 2%, result in negligible or negative real returns for depositors [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market has seen a reversal, with the average price of second-hand homes in Beijing dropping from 43,000 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the year to 41,800 yuan by November [9] - Nationwide, the average price of second-hand residential properties fell by 0.34% month-on-month and 3.21% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in market activity [9] Group 3: Investment Landscape - Gold has lost its appeal as a safe-haven asset, with prices fluctuating and high transaction fees eroding potential profits for individual investors [11] - The stock market, while experiencing some gains, has become highly volatile, with many retail investors facing losses due to rapid price changes in various sectors [13] - The digital yuan, despite its growing adoption, does not provide additional value protection against inflation, serving primarily as a more convenient payment method [15][16] Group 4: Economic Resilience - The increase in household savings reflects a collective caution among families regarding future economic conditions, contributing to a soft landing for the Chinese economy [18] - This cautious behavior, while indicative of underlying economic challenges, prevents the situation from escalating into a systemic crisis, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [18]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market is experiencing slight adjustments in prices among various well-known jewelry brands, with a general downtrend in gold prices denominated in RMB, indicating the need for rationality among investors and consumers [1][3][7] Price Adjustments - Major brands are pricing gold between 1260 RMB/gram and 1270 RMB/gram, while some local brands like Cai Bai Jewelry and China Gold are priced lower [3][7] - Specific brand prices include: - Chao Hong Ji: 1268 RMB/gram - Cai Bai Jewelry: 1238 RMB/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1267 RMB/gram - China Gold: 1188 RMB/gram [1][3] Market Trends - The latest price for 24K gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.42 RMB/gram, showing a minor decrease of 0.22 RMB or approximately 0.024% from the previous trading day [3][5] - The trading range for the day saw a high of 922 RMB/gram and a low of 913.30 RMB/gram, indicating limited market volatility [3][5] Investment Insights - Despite the slight decline in gold prices, the long-term investment value of gold remains intact, serving as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [5][7] - For short-term speculators, the current market conditions present limited arbitrage opportunities, necessitating cautious trading strategies [5][7] Consumer Guidance - Consumers should consider not only the price but also brand reputation, after-sales service, and repurchase channels when purchasing gold jewelry [3][5] - The purity of gold is a critical factor for investment and collection, with common standards being 999 or 24K gold, ensuring a minimum purity of 99.9% [5][7]