Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.22% on February 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.50% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965 [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [1] - The 10-3 month spread also shows similar patterns, with negative periods leading up to recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11%, one of the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - NuScale Power's stock experienced a significant increase of 23.4% in January, driven by political support for nuclear energy and an analyst upgrade from Bank of America [1][6]. Group 1: Political and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. House of Representatives Energy Subcommittee held hearings on January 5 to discuss a nuclear acceleration roadmap, indicating bipartisan support for expanding nuclear technology in the energy grid [2]. - The timeline for nuclear energy development includes operational experimental reactors by July 4, 2026, multiple small modular reactors (SMRs) by the end of 2027, and nuclear power on military bases by 2028, reflecting a renewed urgency in the industry [3]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - NuScale holds the only SMR design certification from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which positions the company favorably for regulatory streamlining and faster deployment [5]. - Bank of America upgraded NuScale's stock from "Underperform" to "Neutral" on January 9, setting a price target of $28, citing positive factors such as a licensing agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority and the advantages of its light-water reactor design [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The stock rally faced challenges when Microsoft reported earnings that raised concerns about AI infrastructure spending, which could impact growth for companies like NuScale that are linked to AI demand [7][8]. - The energy demand driven by AI has been a key factor in NuScale's stock performance over the past two years, and any decline in this demand could negatively affect the company's stock [8].

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time, marking a significant milestone with an increase of over 2% for the day [1][6] - The NASDAQ and S&P 500 also saw gains of more than 2%, indicating a sharp rebound from a volatile week [2][6] - Key sectors leading the gains included technology, industrials, and materials, with a notable rotation into consumer staples observed throughout January [3][4] Technology Sector Insights - Major technology stocks like Nvidia, Walmart, JP Morgan, and Amazon experienced declines of over 5%, although some cut their losses by the end of the trading day [4] - The software sector faced significant pressure this week, but there was a bounce back observed in some software stocks [4][5] - The market is questioning long-term returns for hyperscalers, with a distinct repricing of expectations affecting their suppliers, while hardware suppliers continue to perform well [8][9] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin rebounded sharply, increasing by over 10% and making a $10,000 move per token, while Ethereum also rose more than 10% [5][6] - Despite the recovery, some strategists caution that the downward trend in the crypto market may not be over yet [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson indicated a hawkish tone on interest rates, suggesting the current policy stance is well-positioned to stabilize the labor market while addressing inflation risks [20][21] - Jefferson raised his GDP outlook to 2.2%, aligning with last year's performance, while noting that inflation has stalled due to tariffs [21][22] - Concerns about the job market persist, with expectations that the unemployment rate will remain steady around 4.4% [22][23] DraftKings and Super Bowl Betting - DraftKings anticipates significant customer engagement and acquisition during the Super Bowl, estimating $1.7 billion in wagers for the event [27][28] - The company has launched DraftKings Predictions and added Crypto.com to its platform, enhancing its offerings for the Super Bowl [35][36] - DraftKings is focusing on states without legal online sports betting for its prediction products, aligning consumer demand with regulatory compliance [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - IREN, a Bitcoin miner and AI services provider, experienced a stock rebound after reporting a significant net loss for fiscal Q2 2026, which was attributed to a drop in Bitcoin prices [1] Financial Performance - IREN reported a net loss of $155.4 million for fiscal Q2 2026, a stark contrast to a net income of $19 million in the same period last year [1] - The company's shares fell over 11% on Thursday due to Bitcoin prices dropping below $63,000, reaching 16-month lows [1] Market Context - The overall market saw a rise in Dow Jones futures and a bounce in Bitcoin prices, while Amazon's stock declined due to substantial capital spending [1] - IREN's stock performance is linked to broader trends in the cryptocurrency market, particularly the fluctuations in Bitcoin prices [1] Strategic Developments - IREN, along with Cipher Mining, has surged in stock value due to AI cloud deals with major companies like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the intersection of AI services and Bitcoin mining amid ongoing power shortages [1]

Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank economists predict subdued job growth due to tighter immigration policies, despite easing trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus benefiting demand [3] - For January, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 45,000, with private payrolls up 40,000, below consensus estimates [4] Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a bounce, with the Dow Jones rising 731 points (1.5%) to 49,640, the S&P 500 climbing 71 points (1%) to 6,869, and the Nasdaq increasing by 201 points (0.9%) to 22,742 [5] - Despite the rally, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track for weekly losses, remaining in the red for 2026 so far [6] Technology Sector - Amazon shares opened down 9% due to a report indicating a surge in 2026 spending to at least $200 billion, while its operating income forecast fell short of expectations [7] - Google initially saw its stock fall by 7% after announcing a massive spending plan of $175–185 billion for 2026, but shares closed just 0.6% below their opening level, buoyed by a 48% growth in Google Cloud [8] - Stellantis announced a significant charge of 22 billion euros ($26 billion) as it scales back its electric vehicle ambitions, leading to a more than 25% drop in shares at the open [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has declared that "crypto is not an asset," indicating a bearish stance on digital assets as Bitcoin whales and ETF investors withdraw capital from the market [1][2]. Group 1: UBS's Position on Crypto - UBS's statement that crypto is held by a "tiny portion of society" reflects a significant shift in sentiment, especially after previously opening crypto access for private clients [2]. - The mixed messaging from UBS is concerning as institutional approval typically stabilizes the market, but the current trend suggests instability [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Activity - Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss has noted a resurgence of "crypto winter" discussions, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a peak of $125K to current levels, indicating that large investors are selling rather than buying [2][4]. - Bitcoin whales, who hold substantial amounts of BTC, have become net sellers, actively offloading their assets during this downturn, which suggests a lack of bullish indicators for a market recovery [4]. - Traditional finance investors are also exiting the market, with significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that the influx of "tourism" money is rapidly diminishing [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The market is currently experiencing "peak fear," with significant declines in the value of companies associated with Bitcoin, such as Michael Saylor's firm, which has seen a 75% drop in stock value from its peak [6].

Core Insights - The gold mining industry is facing challenges related to operational complexity, declining ore grades, and the concept of peak gold, which suggests that gold production may not be able to meet rising demand in the future [2][3][10]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Total gold supply in 2024 is projected to increase by 1% year-on-year, reaching 4,974.5 tonnes, surpassing the previous record set in 2018 [4][7]. - Mine production for 2024 is expected to hit an all-time high of 3,661.2 tonnes, which is slightly above the 2023 output of 3,644.1 tonnes [4][8]. - Despite the increase in supply, there remains a significant deficit when excluding recycled gold, with a shortfall of 1,312.8 tonnes when comparing demand of 4,974 tonnes to mined production [9][10]. Peak Gold Concept - The industry is grappling with the implications of peak gold, as historical data shows that mined production has consistently failed to meet demand without relying on recycled gold [11][12][13]. - The need for new gold discoveries is critical, as existing reserves are depleting and production challenges are increasing [17][18]. Future Production Challenges - Wood Mackenzie indicates that to avoid a decline in mined gold, the industry must develop 44 new projects, which is seen as a daunting task given the historical context of gold discoveries [14][15]. - The exploration landscape is challenging, with few projects having the necessary economics and backing to become viable mines [18]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are expected to purchase nearly 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2025, continuing a trend of diversifying reserves away from dollar-denominated assets [19]. - Société Générale has increased its gold allocation to 10% as a hedge against inflation, predicting average gold prices to rise significantly in the coming years [22][23]. Economic Context - The ongoing inflationary environment and rising interest rates are expected to support gold prices, as they push real yields lower and increase demand for gold as a store of value [23][24]. - The structural supply issues in the gold industry, combined with rising demand, suggest that the market may be heading towards a crisis [24].

Snapshot 244 is live:🎯 https://t.co/hcDm4vdblb launched the OG prediction market platform spanning sports, finance, and culture🥇 Gold and silver markets cool while BTC dipped💼 Ripple launched a treasury platform using RLUSD💰 Tether logged $10B in 2025 profit as excess reserves hit $6.3B🏦 BBVA joined a banking consortium building a EUR stablecoin– and more ...

Group 1: Crypto Legislation - Treasury Secretary Scott Bassant is urging the passage of a stalled crypto market bill during Senate banking hearings, emphasizing the need for clear regulatory frameworks in the U.S. crypto industry [2][5] - The major impasse in the legislation revolves around whether crypto exchanges should be allowed to offer customer rewards on stable coins held on their platforms [5][10] - Senator Dave McCormack highlights the importance of a regulatory framework to ensure consumer confidence and prevent fraudulent activities, while also balancing the interests of local banks and the crypto industry [7][8][9] Group 2: Market Impact and Innovation - The crypto blockchain industry is seen as a significant area of innovation with potential for job creation and investment opportunities, particularly in Pennsylvania [7] - There is a concern that allowing crypto platforms to pay customer rewards could disadvantage traditional banks, which face stricter regulations [10][12] - The discussion includes the implications of stable coins on lending ratios and the capacity of community banks to provide loans to small businesses [13] Group 3: Legislative Process and Negotiations - Senator McCormack expresses optimism that the crypto legislation will move forward in the spring, indicating ongoing negotiations [18] - The White House is actively involved in discussions with crypto industry executives and banking associations to resolve the legislative stalemate [5][14] - The urgency of passing the legislation is underscored by the potential for significant innovation in the financial sector [18]

Group 1 - UiPath has acquired WorkFusion to enhance its portfolio of AI-powered solutions specifically for the financial services and banking sectors [1]