Altria shares have added about 13.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.3%. What's Next for Altria? Altria (MO) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.44 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.31 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non- recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +5.11%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this owner of Philip Morris USA, the nation's large ...

Altria's Second-Quarter and First-Half 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2025 1 | ALCS | Q2 2025 | 7.30.25 | For Investor Purposes ONLY Safe Harbor Statement Statements, including earnings guidance, in this presentation that are not reported financial results or other historical information are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and expectations, and are not guarantees ...

Core Viewpoint - 22nd Century Group, Inc. is the only tobacco company authorized by the FDA to produce reduced nicotine content combustible cigarettes, specifically their VLN products, which align with the proposed FDA standard for nicotine yield [1][4]. Group 1: Public Health Impact - Smoking in the U.S. results in over 480,000 deaths and costs more than $600 billion annually, significantly reducing life expectancy by 10 years [2]. - The proposed FDA standard aims to limit nicotine in combusted tobacco products to less than 0.7mg per gram, addressing public health issues related to nicotine addiction [2][9]. Group 2: Industry Position and Product Offering - 22nd Century Group's VLN products contain 95% less nicotine than traditional cigarettes, providing smokers with a familiar alternative that allows for better control over nicotine consumption [6][7]. - The company has developed proprietary non-GMO reduced nicotine tobacco blends through patented technologies, ensuring they hold a unique position in the market with the only low nicotine combustible cigarette in the U.S. and key international markets [7]. Group 3: Support from Medical Community - The American Academy of Family Physicians, representing over 128,300 family physicians, supports the FDA's proposed nicotine yield standard, emphasizing its importance in combating tobacco dependence [3][9].

Core Insights - Altria is expected to announce earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.38 per share and revenues of $5.19 billion, compared to $1.31 per share and $5.28 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Altria's stock has shown a positive one-day return in 53% of cases following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 1.9% and a maximum increase of 7.8% [3][7]. - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns increased to 55%, with the median of positive returns at 1.9% and negative returns at -2.1% [7]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Altria has a current market capitalization of $101 billion, generating $20 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with $12 billion in operating profits and a net income of $10 billion, indicating strong operational profitability [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and evaluate immediate and mid-term stock reactions post-earnings to inform trading decisions [6]. - Correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be analyzed to identify suitable trading strategies, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [8].

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is expected to report a decline in revenues for Q2 2025, while earnings are projected to show growth compared to the previous year [1][9]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $5.2 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has increased to $1.37, indicating a 4.6% growth year-over-year [1][9]. Earnings Performance and Predictions - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.3%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% [2]. - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a potential earnings beat [4][3]. Factors Influencing Q2 Earnings - Regulatory pressures, particularly the ITC's exclusion order on NJOY ACE, have negatively impacted Altria's smoke-free product portfolio [5]. - The cigarette business is facing volume pressures due to consumer downtrading and competition from illicit flavored disposable vapes [5]. - Despite these challenges, Altria's strong pricing power and cost control measures are expected to support profitability [6][7]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria's stock has increased by 2.6%, slightly below the Zacks Tobacco industry's growth of 2.7% and significantly trailing the S&P 500's 15.5% rise [8]. - Altria's stock performance has outpaced Philip Morris International, which declined by 6.8%, but underperformed Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco [8]. Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.96, below the industry average of 14.48, indicating attractive value for investors [11]. - Compared to key competitors, Altria's P/E ratio is significantly lower than Philip Morris International (20.11) and Turning Point Brands (21.54), while being comparable to British American Tobacco (10.94) [13]. Investment Outlook - Altria faces a mixed backdrop with regulatory challenges and volume pressures, but resilient pricing power and disciplined cost control may provide stability [14]. - Investors may consider holding positions or selectively adding to their investments, while monitoring management's updates on product pipeline and strategic execution [14].

Core Insights - The tobacco sector presents two main investment options: Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc., each with distinct market strategies and growth trajectories towards a smoke-free future [1][2] Altria Group, Inc. - Altria focuses on the U.S. market, leveraging its Marlboro brand while expanding into alternatives like NJOY and oral nicotine pouches [2] - The company achieved a 10.8% net price realization in smokeable products in Q1 2025, contributing to a 2.7% increase in adjusted operating income [3][9] - Altria's oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, saw an 18% increase in shipments, capturing 8.8% of the oral tobacco category and 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment [4][9] - Despite setbacks in the e-vapor category, Altria is refining its product pipeline and advocating for regulatory reforms to combat the rise of illicit disposable e-vapor products, which account for over 60% of the U.S. market [5] - The cigarette industry faces challenges, with shipment volumes declining due to macroeconomic pressures and the growth of illegal e-vapor products, impacting low-income smokers [6] Philip Morris International Inc. - Philip Morris is advancing its transformation strategy with a strong smoke-free portfolio, including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, and has approximately 41.5 million adult users by Q2 2025 [7][9] - IQOS is the primary driver of growth, with accelerated adoption in key markets supported by commercial initiatives and product innovations [8][10] - The company offers smoke-free products in 97 markets, with nearly half providing multiple product categories, enhancing its global reach [10] - Philip Morris faces challenges such as currency volatility and increasing regulatory risks, particularly regarding nicotine pouch marketing [11] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.96, appealing to income-focused investors, while Philip Morris has a higher multiple of 20.12, reflecting its global presence and momentum in smoke-free products [15] - Over the past month, Altria gained 2.1%, while Philip Morris dropped 11.6%, underperforming the S&P 500's 3.4% rise [14] Conclusion - Philip Morris is better positioned for long-term growth with its aggressive pivot towards a smoke-free future and strong global traction, while Altria's focus on domestic stability and pricing strength supports income-focused investors but faces more headwinds [16]

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Core Viewpoint - Traditional cigarette sales are declining, but Philip Morris International is offsetting this with strong growth in its newer nicotine products, particularly the Zyn brand and heated tobacco units [1][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Zyn shipments in the U.S. increased by 40% to 190 million cans in Q2, with retail sales volumes growing by 26% in the quarter and 36% in June [1]. - Outside the U.S. and Nordic countries, Zyn shipments more than doubled, now available in 44 markets, with overall oral product shipments climbing 23.8% [2]. - Sales volumes of heated tobacco units (HTUs), including the Iqos system, rose nearly 9.2% to 38.8 billion units, with in-market sales increasing by 11.4% [4]. - E-vapor product Veev saw shipment growth more than double, driven by pod growth in Europe, now in 42 markets and holding the No. 1 market share in six European markets [5]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Organic revenue rose 6.8% year over year to $10.1 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbing 20% to $1.91 [6]. - Traditional cigarette volumes fell by 1.5% to 155.2 billion units, but segment organic revenue grew 2% to $6 billion, and gross profits increased by 5% to $4 billion due to price hikes [5]. - Management maintained its full-year guidance for organic revenue growth at 6% to 8% while raising adjusted EPS guidance to $7.43 to $7.56 [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company expects a 3% to 4% decline in traditional cigarette volumes due to supply chain issues in Turkey and competition from illicit cigarettes in Indonesia [7][8]. - Despite the forecast for steeper declines in cigarette sales volumes, the smoke-free portfolio, particularly Zyn and Iqos, continues to show strong growth and better unit economics [10][11]. - The stock is viewed as undervalued with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio under 22 and a PEG ratio below 0.35, indicating potential for growth [12]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The current share price offers a forward dividend yield of 3.3%, which, while lower than some competitors, positions the company as a unique growth stock in a defensive industry [13]. - The dip in stock price presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [13].

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) raised its 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance to $7.43-$7.56, reflecting strong second-quarter performance driven by smoke-free products, indicating a year-over-year growth of 13-15% [1][10] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, smoke-free net revenues increased by 15.2% year over year, with gross profit for this segment rising over 23%, contributing 41% to total net revenues and 42% to gross profit [2][10] - Adjusted operating income grew by 16.1% in the quarter, outpacing revenue gains, attributed to strong pricing, improved scale efficiencies, and a favorable category mix towards higher-margin smoke-free products [4][10] Product Performance - The multi-category smoke-free platform showed broad-based growth, with IQOS heated tobacco units' adjusted in-market sales rising by 11.4%, supported by global expansion and recovery in European markets [3] - ZYN experienced a significant rebound, with U.S. consumer offtake increasing by 26% in the quarter and 36% in June, driven by better in-store availability and renewed commercial activity [3] Market Strategy - The raised EPS guidance indicates management's confidence in the sustainability of recent smoke-free category growth, suggesting that the multi-category strategy is gaining traction faster than anticipated [5] Competitive Landscape - Altria Group's "on!" nicotine pouch brand saw an 18% increase in shipment volume, while Turning Point Brands reported nearly tenfold growth in modern oral nicotine pouch sales, contributing $22.3 million in revenues [6][7][8] Valuation Metrics - Philip Morris shares have declined by 10.2% in the past month, compared to the industry's decline of 2.2% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.16X, higher than the industry's average of 14.67X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 14.2% for 2025 and 11.9% for 2026 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Altria (MO) to report quarterly earnings of $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, while revenues are expected to be $5.19 billion, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.5% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net revenue- All Other/ Financial Services' to reach $14.00 million, a significant increase of 366.7% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'Revenues net of excise taxes- Oral tobacco products' are projected at $701.72 million, showing a 2.1% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Revenues net of excise taxes- Smokeable Products' are expected to be $4.43 billion, indicating a decline of 3.3% compared to the previous year [6] Operating Income Estimates - The average prediction for 'Operating Income (Loss)/ Reported OCI- Oral tobacco products' is $459.60 million, compared to $97.00 million reported in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Adjusted OCI- Smokeable Products' is anticipated to reach $2.86 billion, slightly up from $2.83 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year [7] Market Performance - Altria shares have returned +1.4% over the past month, underperforming compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.6% change [7] - Altria holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [7]