Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its model for Pop Mart, projecting a sales revenue of 34.8 billion yuan for this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% [1] - The net profit is expected to reach 11.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 257% [1] Sales and Profit Forecast - For next year, sales are projected to be 45 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 30% [1] - The net profit for next year is anticipated to be 14.6 billion yuan, which means a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] Long-term Profit Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively [1] - This adjustment is primarily driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Pop Mart has been increased from 365 HKD to 382 HKD [1] - The rating for the company has been maintained at "Overweight" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 11 billion and 14.1 billion respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, and keeps an outperform rating with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through improved planning and collaboration between artists and product teams, leading to a dynamic balance of SKU numbers and the introduction of new product categories such as plush toys, accessories, desserts, clothing, and building blocks, with plans to explore small appliances [2] - The company has increased its plush production capacity by approximately 10 times since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, and has optimized the consumer purchasing experience, indicating a better understanding of market demand and improved supply chain flexibility [3] Group 2 - The overseas market for the company is experiencing rapid growth, with successful store openings such as the ICONSIAM flagship store in Thailand, and a strong demand in the US leading to an increase in online sales, although operational details in overseas markets still require refinement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the adjusted net profit forecast for Pop Mart (09992) at 11 billion and 14.1 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 35 and 27 times for those years, with a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20% [1] Group 1 - The company has enhanced its product launch capabilities and IP potential through a more mature product planning process, leading to an increase in the frequency of hot-selling products and a dynamic balance of SKU numbers [2] - The plush category continues to empower more IPs and has shown strong customer acquisition effects in new overseas markets, while the company is also exploring new categories such as small home appliances to extend IP boundaries and consumption scenarios [2] Group 2 - The company's plush production capacity has increased approximately tenfold since the beginning of the year, reaching 30 million pieces per month, which has improved the overall consumer purchasing experience [3] - The company is expected to enhance its ability to match supply and demand with a deeper understanding of market needs and optimized supply chain arrangements [3] Group 3 - The overseas market for Pop Mart is experiencing rapid growth, with the flagship store in Thailand performing well and no negative impact on other stores, while the U.S. is seeing a faster demand growth than store openings [4] - There are still areas for operational refinement in overseas markets, such as store models and online membership systems, but the company's retail capabilities are expected to support positive same-store performance following rapid expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has become a focal point in 2023, with several companies reporting impressive mid-year performance, particularly the "three golden flowers": Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.682 billion yuan, up 385.6%. The plush toy category was a significant driver, generating 6.139 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 1276.2% [4]. - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, a 251% increase, and a net profit of 2.35 billion yuan, up 290.6%. Same-store sales grew by 200.8% [4]. - Mixue Group's revenue reached 14.875 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase, with a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, up 44.1% [5]. Group 2: International Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 2.851 billion yuan in the Asia-Pacific market (excluding China), a 257.8% increase, and 2.265 billion yuan in the Americas, up 1142.3%. The company operates 571 stores in 18 countries, with nearly 40% of total revenue coming from international markets [6]. - Lao Pu Gold's overseas revenue was 1.597 billion yuan, a 455.2% increase, with plans to expand into the Hong Kong and Macau markets [7][8]. - Mixue Group opened its first store in Kazakhstan and has around 4,700 overseas stores across 12 countries, optimizing operations in Indonesia and Vietnam [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The Hong Kong new consumption sector is transitioning from a "beta" market to a more differentiated "alpha" market, with a focus on building long-term competitive advantages [9]. - The shift in consumer focus from family to individual spending, particularly among younger generations, is driving demand for emotional and social value in consumption [10]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong new consumption sector is expected to continue, with public funds projected to flow into the sector significantly in 2025 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new mini version of Labubu has generated significant market excitement, leading to rapid sell-outs across multiple platforms and strong consumer interest [2][4][6]. Sales Performance - The mini version of Labubu was released on August 28, with a retail price of 79 yuan per blind box and 1,106 yuan for a full set of 14 boxes. The series includes 28 regular items and 2 hidden items [2]. - Within one minute of launch, the product sold out on platforms like JD, Taobao, and Douyin, with over 300,000 units sold on Tmall that night [4]. - As of September 2, over 46,000 units of the mini Labubu had been sold on the platform Dewu, with more than 110,000 users expressing interest [4]. Pricing Trends - The average transaction price for the mini Labubu blind box in the last 30 days was over 130 yuan, while the average prices for the full sets were around 1,500 yuan and 1,700 yuan [4][5]. Product Expansion - Another product, the Rock Big Doll from the Labubu series, also saw strong sales, with over 6,000 units sold on Dewu by September 2, and an average price of nearly 900 yuan in the last 30 days [6]. - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasized the potential of Labubu as a global IP, indicating plans for diverse product applications and market expansion [7]. Market Outlook - The Labubu brand is expected to experience explosive growth in 2024, with the potential to become a globally sought-after trend, as indicated by the positive market response and sales performance [7].

Core Insights - The launch of the mini version of LABUBU by Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with over 200 million viewers on Tmall's live stream and rapid sell-out across platforms within minutes of release [1][2] - The mini LABUBU's design appeals to consumers for its portability and versatility, allowing it to be used as a fashion accessory, which enhances its desirability [3][10] - The secondary market has seen a dramatic price increase for hidden versions of LABUBU, with prices soaring up to 14 times the original price, indicating strong demand and speculative trading [3][9] Sales Performance - The mini LABUBU sold over 21,000 units within the first two days of launch, with 82,000 users expressing interest in purchasing [2] - The initial price for the mini LABUBU was set at 79 yuan per unit, with a complete box priced at 1106 yuan [2] - On the resale market, hidden versions are priced between 679.5 yuan and 1188 yuan, while regular versions are being sold for around 300 yuan [3] Market Strategy - The introduction of the mini LABUBU is part of Pop Mart's strategy to capitalize on the popularity of existing IPs and to maintain consumer engagement during periods of lower product novelty [10] - The company aims to enhance the narrative depth of its IPs, as LABUBU is seen as a globally recognized phenomenon but lacks a deeper story compared to other IPs [10] - Pop Mart's CEO expressed confidence in the long-term commercial potential of LABUBU as a world-class IP, suggesting that the brand's value is just beginning to be realized [10] Production Challenges - The surge in demand for LABUBU has posed production challenges for Pop Mart, with current monthly production capacity reaching 30 million units, ten times that of the previous year [10] - The company is currently in a phase of "catching up" with production to meet the heightened consumer demand [10]

Core Insights - Miniso, a Chinese trendy retail brand, has successfully attracted consumers with its plush toy series at its Paris flagship store in July 2024, highlighting a surge in consumer interest [1] - The company has expanded its operations to 112 countries and regions, facing challenges in maintaining efficient operations in international markets [1] - Miniso's global journey reflects the current trend of Chinese brands focusing on systematic and refined global operations rather than mere product exports [1] Group 1 - Miniso utilizes advanced digital tools to monitor global sales data, consumer feedback, and supply chain stability in real-time from its headquarters in Guangzhou [1] - The introduction of Feishu, a global integrated collaboration platform, has enhanced operational efficiency and communication across different time zones and languages [2] - The "Overseas Store Assistant" application built on Feishu's low-code platform has standardized operations and improved cross-time zone collaboration for Miniso's global stores [3] Group 2 - In the Indonesian market, Miniso leveraged Feishu's multi-dimensional table feature to digitize its store expansion process, achieving a 50% increase in development efficiency compared to traditional methods [3] - Challenges such as language barriers and cross-time zone collaboration consume significant resources for companies expanding internationally, as noted by Feishu's Chief Commercial Officer [3] - Cultural integration is emphasized as a "soft power" for Chinese companies, with brands like Bawang Tea Ji using Feishu to promote understanding of Chinese tea culture among global employees [5] Group 3 - Feishu respects cultural diversity in its product design, supporting multi-skin tone emoji options and avoiding potentially misinterpreted symbols [5] - The platform provides stable and efficient foundational services while also offering customizable solutions for specific business scenarios [5] - J&T Express, a global logistics service provider, has implemented Feishu for unified collaboration across 12 countries, achieving online coordination for 80,000 employees in just 40 working days [5][6] Group 4 - The ongoing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is supported by Feishu, which is transforming its accumulated experiences into a toolkit for more outbound enterprises [6] - Feishu's collaboration with outbound companies is creating new narratives on a global scale [6]

Core Insights - Pop Mart announced a significant milestone, achieving over 10 billion yuan in revenue within the first half of the year, surpassing the total revenue of the previous year [1] - The LABUBU series, particularly THE MONSTERS, has shown remarkable growth with a 668% increase, becoming a key revenue driver for the company [1] - The introduction of the mini LABUBU has generated considerable excitement and confidence within the company, with expectations for it to become a popular product [3] Revenue Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of the year exceeded 10 billion yuan, indicating strong market performance [1] - The LABUBU series has been a standout performer, with a 668% growth rate, highlighting its success in the market [1] Product Launch and Market Response - The mini LABUBU was launched on August 28, selling over 470,000 units within the first 10 minutes across online platforms [10] - Priced at 79 yuan per blind box, the mini LABUBU has sparked debate regarding its pricing strategy compared to the previous version, which was priced at 99 yuan [10] - Despite initial pricing controversies, the product sold out quickly, indicating strong demand and effective inventory management [10][15] Quality Control Issues - The mini LABUBU has faced criticism regarding quality control, with consumers reporting issues such as deformities and inconsistent coloring [15] - The backlash over quality has led to a decrease in secondary market prices, making the product more accessible to consumers [15] Strategic Positioning - The rapid release of the mini LABUBU aims to expand the audience and market reach of the LABUBU brand by offering varied sizes and price points [16] - The mini LABUBU is positioned as a "carry-on" accessory, appealing to consumers' desire for visible identity markers in their daily lives [20] Consumer Trends - The popularity of mini products reflects a broader trend towards "mini-economy," where smaller items are favored for their cuteness and emotional appeal [24][26] - The mini LABUBU serves as both a toy and a source of emotional comfort, aligning with consumer preferences for lightweight and affordable products [26] Market Dynamics - The success of mini LABUBU is part of a global trend where miniatures are gaining traction among various demographics, including Gen Z and adults [27] - The brand's strategy to introduce mini products is not merely about downsizing but about enhancing emotional value and identity expression [30][32] Competitive Landscape - As more brands adopt miniaturization, the challenge lies in avoiding homogenization and continuously creating new emotional value to maintain consumer interest [34]

Core Viewpoint - The global潮玩 (trendy toy) market is undergoing a significant restructuring, with companies like TOP TOY and泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) showing remarkable growth, indicating a rapid expansion phase in China's潮玩 industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - TOP TOY reported a revenue of 400 million yuan in Q2 2025, marking an impressive year-on-year increase of 87.0%, significantly surpassing the industry average growth rate [2] -泡泡玛特's Labubu IP generated 34.7% of its revenue in the first half of 2025, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 726.6% [2] -泡泡玛特 achieved a gross margin of 70.3%, well above the traditional toy companies' range of 20-30%, due to premium pricing and exclusive strategies [2] Group 2: Market Expansion - TOP TOY has expanded its store count to 293, with 283 located in mainland China, and achieved a total GMV of 1.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] -泡泡玛特's overseas revenue surged by 440%, accounting for 40% of its total revenue, with the U.S. and European markets experiencing a growth rate of 480% [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Investments -淡马锡's investment in TOP TOY reflects a long-term investment perspective, recognizing the potential of the Chinese潮玩 market and the global expansion capabilities of名创优品 (Miniso) [3] -名创优品's total revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, and overseas revenue making up 42.6% of its total income [3] Group 4: Future Trends -泡泡玛特 aims to increase its overseas revenue share to 65% by 2027, while also diversifying into new business areas such as theme parks and animation content [6][7] -名创优品 plans to promote 100 Chinese IPs globally, enhancing its brand presence and cultural export [6][7]

Core Insights - TOP TOY's first store in Japan opened in Ikebukuro, Tokyo, achieving sales of over 11 million yen (approximately 530,000 RMB) on its first day, indicating strong overseas expansion momentum [1] - The company recently completed a strategic financing round led by Temasek, resulting in a post-investment valuation of 10 billion HKD [1] - TOP TOY is enhancing its proprietary IP matrix through strategic acquisitions, including well-known IPs Nommi and MayMei, which is crucial for building a "professional trendy toy IP ecosystem" [1][2] Financial Performance - The first-day sales of TOP TOY's Japan store reached over 11 million yen, showcasing the brand's potential in international markets [1] - Nommi, launched in September last year, has already generated over 100 million RMB in revenue [1] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Nommi and MayMei strengthens TOP TOY's capabilities in proprietary IP operation and content innovation [2] - Leveraging its mature supply chain, multi-channel sales network, and brand operation experience, TOP TOY aims to accelerate the productization and commercialization of these IPs [2] - This move reinforces TOP TOY's "IP + industry" dual-driven model and provides essential content support for building a more competitive trendy toy ecosystem [2]