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从LV到临期食品:中产消费的十年轮回
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 14:20
奢侈品黄金时代的终结与临期食品的崛起 十年前的中国奢侈品市场还处于高速增长期。2015年,我国奢侈品消费占全球市场的比重达到前所未有的高度。 贝恩咨询数据显示,2015年中国奢侈品市场规模达到1130亿元,尽管受反腐影响有所下滑,但仍是全球奢侈品消费的重要引擎。当时,LV、Gucci等国际大 牌在中国一线城市疯狂扩张门店,北京SKP、上海恒隆等高端商场人头攒动,奢侈品消费成为身份象征和社交资本。 那是一个万物生长的时代,也是一个最好的时代。 当时几乎没有人会预料到十年后的今天,奢侈品市场会遭遇寒冬。 2025年,全球最大奢侈品集团LVMH二季度收入下跌4%,上半年出现营收利润双降,营业利润大跌15%,净利润大跌22%。 咨询机构贝恩则修改其之前对全球奢侈品行业将在2025年实现0-4%的增幅预测,认为2025年全球奢侈品市场销售规模或将下滑2%至5%。 当LV收入开始下跌的时候,也没有人会想到,消费端另一头的临期食品,会迎来一个爆发式增长。 根据行业的调研,今年国内临期食品市场规模将突破400亿元,年增长率近6%。好特卖等临期食品连锁品牌在全国快速扩张,其"花得少,吃得好"的理念吸 引了大量消费者。 而中产又 ...
喝5元奶茶,吃临期食品,消费正回到十年前!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 08:56
Group 1: Industry Overview - The consumption sector is becoming increasingly important, but the growth effect from consumption is lower than expected [1] - The tea beverage industry, particularly the milk tea segment, has seen significant closures, with 197,000 stores shutting down from November 2023 to November 2024 [1] - Nayuki's Tea reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, with a loss of 919 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Leaders - Mixue Ice City has emerged as the largest winner in the milk tea market, boasting over 45,000 stores globally and a revenue of 24.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 8 billion yuan [3][4] - The low price point of Mixue Ice City, with drinks priced around 5 yuan, has allowed it to achieve growth amidst a contracting market [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations now favoring low-cost options, contrasting with previous trends where premium brands were preferred [5][6] - The price sensitivity among consumers has increased, leading to a preference for affordable products like milk tea and discounted food items [23] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The decline in consumption is not limited to the milk tea sector but is reflected in other food categories, such as pork, which has seen prices drop to around 10 yuan [10][11] - The rapid growth of the near-expiry food market indicates a shift in consumer preferences, with projections suggesting the market could exceed 200 billion yuan by 2029 [12][13] Group 5: E-commerce Trends - Pinduoduo's revenue for Q1 was 95.67 billion yuan, up from 86.81 billion yuan year-on-year, but the company faced a significant drop in net profit, indicating challenges in the e-commerce sector [17] - The decline of Pinduoduo is attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of government subsidies and increased competition from other e-commerce platforms [17] Group 6: Economic Transition - The shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth is crucial for the economy, as over-reliance on investment has led to inefficiencies and excess capacity in various sectors [18][20] - The importance of stimulating consumption is emphasized as a means to support employment and income growth, particularly in light of a large number of college graduates entering the job market [22][23]